UK Election 2010

[Јas]

I'd much rather we had a referendum on the EU constitution this year or early next than a GE.

Although Sarkozy's (and now the EUs) mini-treaty will be ratified by parliaments

Some parliaments, but not all. It's very unlikely that there won't be a referendum on it here in Ireland.

[Ben.]

Not sure if its the right thread but Quentin Davies (CON:Grantham and Stamford), defected to Labour today... perhaps (bar his position as a Tory europhile) one of the more unlikley parliamentary defections, still not very helpful for Cameron. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Harry, any chance of you doing a graphical 3-way swingometer that would show what would happen in the event of say a net 4% loss by Lab with the Cons picking up 3% and the LibDems the other 1%, etc.

[Harry Hayfield]

Indeed we can. It might take a little time to create the graphics, but I can certainly give you the core numbers.

General Election 2009(ish)
Conservatives 36% (+3% on 2005)
Labour 32% (-4% on 2005)
Liberal Democrats 24% (+1% on 2005)
Others 8% (Unchanged on 2005)

Forecast House of Commons
Labour 277 seats (-72 seats)
Conservatives 272 seats (+62 seats)
Liberal Democrats 69 seats (+7 seats)
Others 32 seats (+3 seats)
Labour short of an overall majority by 49 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

You have to click on it to see any detail

[Harry Hayfield]

GAINS and LOSSES

Conservative GAINS from Lab (unless stated): Aberconwy, Battersea, Bedford, Birmingham, Edgbaston, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Brigg and Goole, Brighton, Kemptown, Bristol North West, Broxtowe, Burton, Bury North, Calder Valley, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Chatham, Cheltenham (Lib Dem), City of Chester, Cleethorpes, Colne Valley, Corby, Crawley, Croydon Central, Dartford, Dudley South, Dumfries, Ealing Central, Eltham, Gillingham, Great Yarmouth, Hammersmith, Harlow, Harrow East, Hastings, Hendon, High Peak, Hove, Loughborough, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Swindon North, Northampton South, Pendle, Portsmouth North, Redditch, Romsey (Lib Dem), Rossendale, Rugby, Basildon South, Derbyshire South, Dorset South, Ribble South, Swindon South, Stafford, Stevenage, Stourbridge, Stroud, Tamworth, Vale of Glamorgan, Westminster North, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, York Outer (Lib Dem). Total: 62 seats

Labour GAINS: None

Liberal Democrat GAINS from Lab: City of Durham, Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South, Hampstead, Islington South, Liverpool Wavertree, Oxford East, Rochdale, Watford. Total: 10 seats

Other GAINS from Lab: Arfon (Plaid), Ynys Môn (Plaid), Ochil and Perthshire South (SNP). Total: 3 seats

[Adlai Stevenson]

At the moment Labour seem resurgent under Gordon Brown and it feels like Cameron's 'honeymoon period' with the electorate is definitely over.  I still think that Cameron has to prove himself in terms of experience and clout - that will clearly be the Labour line of attack; that he is inexperience, has no policies and comes from a privileged background.

To win I think Labour basically need not to screw up terribly - which is difficult for a government in power after 12 years (if the election is in 2009).  Getting us out of Iraq eventually and a slight chance of emphasis could win back many traditional Labour defectors from the Lib Dems last time round. 

The Liberal Democrats themselves seem to be suffering from a loss of initiative - the revitalisation of the Conservatives under Cameron and Labour under Brown to a lesser extent mean their share of the vote and seats seem bound to fall at this point.  A recent YouGov poll put them at just 12% of the vote. 

[Hash]

At the moment Labour seem resurgent under Gordon Brown and it feels like Cameron's 'honeymoon period' with the electorate is definitely over.  I still think that Cameron has to prove himself in terms of experience and clout - that will clearly be the Labour line of attack; that he is inexperience, has no policies and comes from a privileged background.

To win I think Labour basically need not to screw up terribly - which is difficult for a government in power after 12 years (if the election is in 2009).  Getting us out of Iraq eventually and a slight chance of emphasis could win back many traditional Labour defectors from the Lib Dems last time round. 

The Liberal Democrats themselves seem to be suffering from a loss of initiative - the revitalisation of the Conservatives under Cameron and Labour under Brown to a lesser extent mean their share of the vote and seats seem bound to fall at this point.  A recent YouGov poll put them at just 12% of the vote. 

12%! damn it! That'd be the lowest Lib Dem score ever!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the popular vote will be extremely close maybe less than 1% difference.

I have a 4 seat LAB majority, the CON pick up is 40 seats, but LAB losses only number 17 - therefore the big losers from this election will be the LIB thanks to Gordon Brown's left shift.

Old
LAB: 346
CON: 209
LIB: 66

New
LAB: 329
CON: 249
LIB: 42

[Harry Hayfield]

A very close result in the popular vote is almost certain I think, but here in the UK it would not produce a close result in the House of Commons (and the cry would go up to adopt the Jenkins Commission report for AV+).

According to UK-Elect, the sort of result you would like would give us a vote share of:

Labour 9,623,041 (36.41%) winning 333 seats
Conservatives 9,622,763 (36.41%) winning 250 seats
Labour lead of 278 (out of 28 MILLION votes) lead by 83 seats

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Of course, being from a westminster system country, I know this, lol.

But I think the issue isn't going to be the Lab vs Con swing - but what happens to the LibDem vote. Most of the CON gains are LIB seats.

[Harry Hayfield]

You are indeed quite right, if you refer to the Con vs Lib Dem swingometer I published earlier in this thread the danger the Conservatives pose to the Lib Dems can not be understated.

For instance, at the moment the Lib Dems has 62 seats. It would only take a swing to Con of 7% for that figure to be halved, and then only an extra 4% swing on top of that to halve that number again.

You can see the problem that the Lib Dems have in the three party battleground. Of the 62 seats they hold, 38 seats are being challenged by the Conservatives, 13 are being challenged by Labour, 1 is a three party battle and only 7 could be genuinely called safe Lib Dem seats.

[Hash]

I have a question concerning smaller parties not concerned by swing-o-metres.

Will RESPECT hold its only seat with Galloway retiring?

Will Ind-KHHC win again?

Can Plaid pick up the seat it loss in 2005? (To LIBs I believe)

In Northern Ireland- Will SDLP and UUP win re-election in their only seats?

Any chance of a Green pickup?

Any chance of a UKIP pickup?

[Harry Hayfield]

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Well, Respect did get a number of councillors in Tower Hamlets in the 2006 locals so they do have a base to work from. Certainly, when a MP stands down that does make the seat much more tricky to defend. I think at the moment (this is before Ealing, Southall mind) it's likely to be a Lab gain (as the majority at the moment is only 804 (2.10%))

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In a nutshell, no. Look at the change between 2001 and 2005. KHHC -19%, Con +7%, Lab +3%, UKIP +1%, Lib +6%. Even if the Liberal Democrats don't contest the seat again at the next election and given that the Conservatives now essentially control Wyre Forest council, his best thing is to stand down and secure his legacy as the only Indpendent MP to win two elections in a row

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Not if I can flipping well help it! You see the seat in question is my seat of Ceredigion (and let me tell you when it declared as a gain by 219 I was staggered in every sense of the word). Since then of course we got a 2% swing from Plaid to the Lib Dems in the Assembly elections and are banking on the theory that Assembly elections are viewed in a different light to Westminster elections.

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Absolutely, without a shadow of a doubt. Every single poll forecast I enter has Brighton, Pavilion popping up Green.

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Impossible, by the looks of things. UK-Elect has a match seat forecaster than can make 25 calculations max before it gives up. After 25 calculations based on the % share of the vote for the 2005 notionals, UKIP poll 989,851 votes (3.74%) and yet have to win an MP. After those calculations, their best prospect is Boston and Skegness (Con 44% Lab 30% UKIP 15% Lib Dem 9% Others 2% Green 1). If I was a UKIP advisor, I would have to ask Nigel Farage a serious question: "Which do you want? Loads of UKIP votes and no MP's? Or very few UKIP votes and MP's? You can't have it both ways!".

[Јas]

In Northern Ireland- Will SDLP and UUP win re-election in their only seats?

UUP (1)
North Down: UUP should hold, but by no means certain. They will need tactical voting from people who prefer Alliance; Greens; Tories and SDLP to guarantee the seat.

SDLP (3)
Foyle: It seems like the SF vote here has stabilised here in the low 30's and the SDLP even on a bad day should pass that. Putting forward the prospect of a SF MP though should be enough to gain some UUP votes to keep this the SDLP's safest seat.

South Down:
If McGrady runs again, I'd imagine they should hold the seat. SF though are an increasingly difficult challenge. If the DUP and UUP made a deal such that only one unionist would stand, they'd be in genuine contention too. Unlikely though and again I;d imagine the prospect of a SF MP could help gain enough votes from the Unionist side to keep the seat in SDLP hands.

South Belfast:
Most tenuous of all of the three. Too early to tell what way this could go (it may still be too early when the votes are being cast). SDLP slight, very slight favourites from the DUP, but plenty of variables at play.

However, despite my generraly positive (if hesitant) analysis for them in these constituencies, it's very difficult to see where either party can be really competitive if trying to win other seats.

[Harry Hayfield]

In Northern Ireland- Will SDLP and UUP win re-election in their only seats?

UUP (1)
North Down: UUP should hold, but by no means certain. They will need tactical voting from people who prefer Alliance; Greens; Tories and SDLP to guarantee the seat.

SDLP (3)
Foyle: It seems like the SF vote here has stabilised here in the low 30's and the SDLP even on a bad day should pass that. Putting forward the prospect of a SF MP though should be enough to gain some UUP votes to keep this the SDLP's safest seat.

South Down:
If McGrady runs again, I'd imagine they should hold the seat. SF though are an increasingly difficult challenge. If the DUP and UUP made a deal such that only one unionist would stand, they'd be in genuine contention too. Unlikely though and again I;d imagine the prospect of a SF MP could help gain enough votes from the Unionist side to keep the seat in SDLP hands.

South Belfast:
Most tenuous of all of the three. Too early to tell what way this could go (it may still be too early when the votes are being cast). SDLP slight, very slight favourites from the DUP, but plenty of variables at play.

However, despite my generraly positive (if hesitant) analysis for them in these constituencies, it's very difficult to see where either party can be really competitive if trying to win other seats.

Northern Ireland's notionals have been delayed (and so it's possible that Northern Ireland might be still fought on the 1997 boundaries at the next election)

[Harry Hayfield]

Average of polls for June 2007:
Con 36.25% Lab 35.50% Lib Dem 16.25% Others 12.00%
Con lead of 0.75%
Allowing for election drift (based on 1997, 2001 and 2005 campaign):
Lab 35.50% Con 34.25% Lib Dem 18.25% Others 12.00%
Lab lead of 1.25%
Forecast House of Commons:
Lab 342 (-7) Con 231 (+21) Lib Dem 36 (-26) Others 41 (+12)
Labour overall majority of 34 (which would be enough to survive a five year parliament)

[Mr. Morden]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

[Joe Republic]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

Didn't Labour and the old Liberals form a coalition together in the '70s?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

Didn't Labour and the old Liberals form a coalition together in the '70s?

Not quite; there was a stability pact between the two parties for a while, but it wasn't a formal coalition and there were no Liberals in the Cabinet. When that fell through, Labour had a similar deal with the Nats (which in turn fell through following the defeat (or "defeat" in the case of Scotland) of devolution referendums).

[minionofmidas]

Will RESPECT hold its only seat with Galloway retiring?

Might be easier than if he ran again, actually. Although it's Labour's to lose, once again.

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Vote share was declining in 2005, so might be hard.

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Who knows?

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Well. They topped the poll there once again in the Assembly Elections.

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No.

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No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will RESPECT hold its only seat with Galloway retiring?

In one word; no. They may actually have a slightly better chance at getting an M.P elected in Birmingham than in holding Bethnal Green & Bow (although boundary changes f*** them pretty badly. Were it not for boundary changes, they would have a very good shot at a gain there).

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I doubt it. Kiddy politics is weird though.

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Yes. Whether they actually will is a different question o/c. Elections in rural Wales can be very strange.

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SDLP will hold most of their seats (maybe all?), and Lady Hermon has a personal vote in North Down.

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No. Not unless the electoral system is changed before the election (which is actually much more likely than the Greenies winning a FPTP seat).

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No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might be easier than if he ran again, actually.

No need for the word "might"... then again, who would they run post-Galloway? Word is that most of their Tower Hamlets councillers won't even be members of Respect this time next year...

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Yes, but even more so; and not just because Labour's candidate (a Bangladeshi as it happens) is a lot stronger than King was.

Well, Respect did get a number of councillors in Tower Hamlets in the 2006 locals so they do have a base to work from.

They actually did a lot worse than they had been expecting and trailed Labour by a large margin in Bethnal Green & Bow.

[Mr. Morden]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

Anyone want to answer this?  What happens if there's a hung parliament?  Can a minority government be formed?  Would the Lib Dems form a coalition with either of the other parties?

[minionofmidas]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

Anyone want to answer this?  What happens if there's a hung parliament?  Can a minority government be formed?  Would the Lib Dems form a coalition with either of the other parties?

Initially at least, the largest party would form a minority government. What happens next though... no one knows, not really.