UK Election 2010

[afleitch]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

Anyone want to answer this?  What happens if there's a hung parliament?  Can a minority government be formed?  Would the Lib Dems form a coalition with either of the other parties?

It is, numerically speaking, very possible infact probable. While the Conservatives didn't advance spectacularly in 2005, alot of marginal and supermarginal seats were 'set up' that make it very easy for them to wipe out Labour's otherwise healthy majority.

But I have a feeling we will end up with a majority government due to nationwide variations in swing. If the wind moves in the Conservatives favour, they may have a national swing that would leave them say 25 short of a majority, but in reality would probably aquire a small majority. Likewise, if Labour do all right they may see a nationwide swing that should see them loose their majority, but end up retaining a small majority.

I cannot see the Lib Dems enter any coalition, only work on an issue by issue basis as a formal coalition, I believe, would open the party up to a serious split.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If an election was held right now I'd expect to see high swings to the Tories in London suburbia (writ large o/c) but good results for Labour elsewhere.
I suspect that that will be the basic pattern of any General Election over the next few years (which is why a Tory majority is more likely than it looks on paper, and why a large Labour majority is also more likely than it looks on paper). Turnout will be the key though.

Btw, how much of the LibDem vote in Scotland at the last General Election is likely to collapse into the SNP?

[afleitch]

Btw, how much of the LibDem vote in Scotland at the last General Election is likely to collapse into the SNP?

Too early to say; though it does offer up the most promising gains for the Conservatives.

Of course, and SNP strengthening in Scotland could deprive Labour of seats they really need to keep.

[Harry Hayfield]

Polls since Blair offically stood down as PM (on June 27th 2007)
ICM (published on June 29th) Labour 39% Conservatives 35% Liberal Democrats 18% Others 8% Labour lead of 4%

You Gov (published on June 30th) Labour 38% Conservatives 35% Liberal Democrats 15% Others 12% Labour lead of 3%

Populus (published on July 3rd) Labour 37% Conservatives 34% Liberal Democrats 18% Others 11% Labour lead of 3%

ICM (published on July 8th) Labour 37% Conservatives 35% Liberal Democrats 17% Others 11% Labour lead of 4%

ICM (published on July 15th) Labour 40% Conservatives 33% Liberal Democrats 19% Others 8% Labour lead of 7%

Average of polls since Blair resigned: Labour 38.2% Conservatives 34.4% Liberal Democrats 17.4% Others 10% Labour lead of 3.8%

Average of last five polls before Blair resigned: Labour 35% Conservatives 36.6% Liberal Democrats 15.2% Others 13.2% Conservative lead of 1.6%

Change between Blair and Brown average: Labour +3.2% Conservatives -2.2% Liberal Democrats +2.2%% Others -3.2%%

This is why I think we could have a general election as early as October 2007 or as late as May 2008.

[Peter]

What happens in the UK if there's a hung parliament?  Could either Labour or the Cons form a minority government, as in the current situation in Canada?  Is there any chance of the Lib Dems forming a coalition government with either of the other two parties?

Anyone want to answer this?  What happens if there's a hung parliament?  Can a minority government be formed?  Would the Lib Dems form a coalition with either of the other parties?

A minority government can be formed, however, constitutional procedure dictates that if the event of a hung Parliament were to occur at the next election, then Gordon Brown (assuming he is still sitting PM) remains PM until he should tender his resignation to the Queen.

The Queen may theoretically ask him to resign in such a circumstance, but that is highly unlikely. In the event that Brown resigns, she may well ask Cameron to form a government, however, Brown may leave the question open enough that indicates he would be willing to re-form a government if invited. If the Queen does have to make a decision (and the LDs don't make it easier for her), expect Thatcher, Major and Blair to be invited for audiences with her - the Queen has historically called upon her former PMs to advise in difficult succession crises (Churchill closely advised her in 57 and 63).

[Harry Hayfield]

Let us assume that we get a general election vote share of something like Lab 33%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, Others 12% (which is entirely possible). That would give us a House of Commons thus:

Labour 317 seats
Conservatives 233 seats
Liberal Democrats 63 seats
Scottish Nationalists 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 5 seats
Respect 2 seats
Independents 2 seats
Greens 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats

Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons but without an overall majority. The first thing that would happen is that the PM (Brown) would travel to the Palace (still as PM) and advise the Queen on the result of the election. He could then do one of two things, 1) resign as PM and advise that David Cameron be asked to form a government or far more likely 2) advise the Queen that he will need a month to form a majority administration. He would then return to Number 10 (still as PM) and start talks most likely with the SDLP (3), Dai Davies (1), Respect (2) and the Greens (1), that would take up to 324 if they all agreed to vote for the Brown policies. Next would come talks with the combined Plaid and SNP delgeations (14) now these talks could be a bit more fractious as the SNP would probably call for Brown to recognise the right of Scotland to hold an independence referendum and Plaid would say "We want to hold our legislation referendum". If he managed to get those two on board that would take him up to 338 (and over the 330 winning line), so there would be no need for Brown to resign as PM (unless he felt he couldn't get a majority administration).

[Serenity Now]

Let us assume that we get a general election vote share of something like Lab 33%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, Others 12% (which is entirely possible). That would give us a House of Commons thus:

Labour 317 seats
Conservatives 233 seats
Liberal Democrats 63 seats
Scottish Nationalists 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 5 seats
Respect 2 seats
Independents 2 seats
Greens 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats

Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons but without an overall majority. The first thing that would happen is that the PM (Brown) would travel to the Palace (still as PM) and advise the Queen on the result of the election. He could then do one of two things, 1) resign as PM and advise that David Cameron be asked to form a government or far more likely 2) advise the Queen that he will need a month to form a majority administration. He would then return to Number 10 (still as PM) and start talks most likely with the SDLP (3), Dai Davies (1), Respect (2) and the Greens (1), that would take up to 324 if they all agreed to vote for the Brown policies. Next would come talks with the combined Plaid and SNP delgeations (14) now these talks could be a bit more fractious as the SNP would probably call for Brown to recognise the right of Scotland to hold an independence referendum and Plaid would say "We want to hold our legislation referendum". If he managed to get those two on board that would take him up to 338 (and over the 330 winning line), so there would be no need for Brown to resign as PM (unless he felt he couldn't get a majority administration).

I can't work out how there is a second Respect seat? That is unless you're using the old boundaries with Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath.. Also I really can't see a Brown government being able to get Respect into bed with it..

[Harry Hayfield]

According to the forecasts it's Poplar and Limehouse that goes Respect

[Verily]

According to the forecasts it's Poplar and Limehouse that goes Respect

Which is indeed quite strong for Respect, as it gains a strong Respect ward from Bethnal Green and Bow while losing some of Labour's strongest areas to East Ham and West Ham (Poplar and Limehouse being a direct reorganization of Poplar and Canning Town).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Respect win a seat next election, it'll be in Birmingham, not Tower Hamlets.

Btw, there's a by-election in Shadwell (by far Respect's strongest ward in the borough) pretty soon. Labour are running Michael Keith.

[Keystone Phil]

If Respect win a seat next election, it'll be in Birmingham, not Tower Hamlets.

Btw, there's a by-election in Shadwell (by far Respect's strongest ward in the borough) pretty soon. Labour are running Michael Keith.

Tower Hamlets is Galloway's constituency, correct? Is he going to lose?

[Harry Hayfield]

According to all the forecasts I have (based on the new boundaries) the Respect wins are:

Bethnal Green and Bow (by between 900 and 2,700 dependent on Others)
Poplar and Limehouse (from Labour by less than 1,000)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

If Respect win a seat next election, it'll be in Birmingham, not Tower Hamlets.

Btw, there's a by-election in Shadwell (by far Respect's strongest ward in the borough) pretty soon. Labour are running Michael Keith.

Tower Hamlets is Galloway's constituency, correct? Is he going to lose?

Galloway constituency is Bethnal Green & Bow - of which Tower Hamlets is a major part.

He's retiring, no?

Harry where did you get those figures - everything I've read suggests that the Lib Dems will lose alot of their seats quite badly. Some figures I've read have them even down to pre-1997 levels....

Any chance of the BNP getting near winning a seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tower Hamlets is Galloway's constituency, correct? Is he going to lose?

His constituency is Bethnal Green & Bow (which is entirely in Tower Hamlets LBC). Tower Hamlets Respect is, slowly but apparently quite surely, in the process of fragmenting.

[Verily]

If Respect win a seat next election, it'll be in Birmingham, not Tower Hamlets.

Btw, there's a by-election in Shadwell (by far Respect's strongest ward in the borough) pretty soon. Labour are running Michael Keith.

I thought the new boundaries in Birmingham made it nearly impossible for Respect to win a seat there because Sparkbrook and Small Heath were being split up. Birmingham Hall Green will have a strong Respect showing as Sparkbrook is a Respect fortress, but I doubt Salma Yaqoob manages more than 20% overall in a seat with both strong (non-Muslim) Labour and Tory areas.

[Verily]

Any chance of the BNP getting near winning a seat?

Highly unlikely. Their best bet is probably Barking, where they came just a few votes short of second in 2005 with 16.9% of the vote, but, while they've had success locally in Barking and Dagenham LBC, all indications are that it won't be enough for them to win the seat. (Plus, the Lib Dem and Tory votes will collapse to Labour to stop the BNP if they look like a real threat; that's been observed in many local by-elections.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Respect win a seat next election, it'll be in Birmingham, not Tower Hamlets.

Btw, there's a by-election in Shadwell (by far Respect's strongest ward in the borough) pretty soon. Labour are running Michael Keith.

I thought the new boundaries in Birmingham made it nearly impossible for Respect to win a seat there because Sparkbrook and Small Heath were being split up. Birmingham Hall Green will have a strong Respect showing as Sparkbrook is a Respect fortress, but I doubt Salma Yaqoob manages more than 20% overall in a seat with both strong (non-Muslim) Labour and Tory areas.

Right now, "nearly impossible" looks much more likely than them keeping a Westminster seat in Tower Hamlets.
Things might change o/c, but there are reasons to suspect that they won't (at least not in a way beneficial to Respect).

[Silent Hunter]

I see the Leader of the Opposition has stopped calling for an early election...

[Harry Hayfield]

Respect Oppotunities
(Results as of 2005 notionals)
Bethnal Green and Bow: Respect 37% Lab 34% Con 12% Lib Dem 12% Green 5% Oth 0%
Poplar and Limehouse: Lab 35% Con 25% Respect 24% Lib Dem 14% Green 3%
East Ham: Lab 54% Respect 21% Con 14% Lib Dem 11% Oth 1%
West Ham: Lab 52% Respect 20% Con 12% Lib Dem 10% Green 3% Oth 2% UKIP 1%
Tottenham: Lab 58% Lib Dem 17% Con 13% Respect 6% Green 5% Oth 1%

Constituencies where Respect did well in 2005 (but now reorganised)
Birmingham, Hall Green: Lab 42% Lib Dem 26% Con 15% Oth 12% UKIP 3% Green 1% (Respect polled 27% in Sparkbrook which makes up 69% of Hall Green)

What chance the BNP of winning a seat?
The best chance of a BNP gain is Barking (Lab 50% Con 17% BNP 16% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 4% Green 2% Oth 2%) but for that to happen there would have to be a collapse in the Con, Lab and Lib Dem vote.

[Hash]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16536

This poll is quite interesting with Labour at 40%, although I personally think it's not very accurate.

Putting these numbers into Electoral calculus gives Labour 382 seats, 201 Conservatives, and only 38 Lib Dems.

On a side note- any other good seat prediction site?

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, not really and you can't really trust Electoral Calculus either unfortunately. You see their base figures are wrong to start off with. The only true base figures you can completely rely on are those produced by Thrasher and Rallings for the BBC, Sky News, ITN and the Press Association. Electoral Calculus's figures are not those (and therefore in my book aren't worth the website they are printed on).

As to the validity of the poll, yes, I do believe it is absolutely correct. So far Gordon Brown has enabled Labour to enjoy a bounce of 2.5% on average (compared with June 2007), based on past history (i.e when Major replaced Thatcher) this is the sort of thing we might expect

June 2006: Con 36% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% Others 12%
July 2007: Con 34% Lab 42% Lib Dem 14% Others 10%
August 2007: Con 35% Lab 40% Lib Dem 15% Others 10%
September 2007: Con 34% Lab 42% Lib Dem 13% Others 10%
at which point Gordon Brown calls a general election and we end up with a vote share of:
Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 15% Others 11% which when run through an election forecaster gives you a House of Commons thus:

Labour 390 seats
Conservatives 206 seats
Liberal Democrats 18 seats
Others 36 seats
Labour majority of 130

[Hash]

How exactly do you figure out the seat numbers?

[afleitch]

How exactly do you figure out the seat numbers?

There are many different ways, each one broadly innacurate. Theres a good Excel swing calculator I'll try and find a link for. It uses the same methods that allowed the BBC to get their Exit Poll of 66 spot on (while other calculators had Labour at over 100)

Using that calculator on the rolling average of the last 3 polls, Labour increase their notional 44 majority to 61. The Conservatives also gain seats overall. This comes at the expense of the Lib Dems.

[Harry Hayfield]

How exactly do you figure out the seat numbers?

Personally, I use UK Elect

[Silent Hunter]

Galloway's confirmed he's running again:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6940517.stm