UK Election 2010

[Harry Hayfield]

The Indie was actually the former Tory M.P for the seat who left the party for some reason that I've never been able to find out.

Wikipedia to the rescue

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[Harry Hayfield]

Ross and Cromarty
1950: Ind 63% Lab 37% (Ind win)
* At the 1950 general election and thereafter, MacLeod described himself as a "Liberal and Conservative" candidate, the National Liberals having merged with the Conservative Party.
According to all the data I have seen, this classes him as an Independent in 1950, but Conservative from 1951
1951: Con 64% Lab 36% (Con win)
1955: Con 62% (-2%) Lab 38% (+2%) (Con HOLD)
1959: Con 44% (-18%) Lib 33% Lab 23% (-15%) (Con HOLD)
1964: Lib 40% (+7%) Con 32% (-12%) Lab 28% (+5%) (Lib GAIN from Con)
1966: Lib 42% (+2%) Lab 30% (+2%) Con 28% (-4%) (Lib HOLD)
1970: Con 33% (+5%) Lib 29% (-13%) Lab 26% (-4) SNP 12% (Con GAIN from Lib)
Feb 1974: Con 36% (+3%) SNP 23% (+11%) Lib 21% (-8%) Lab 20% (-6) (Con HOLD)
Oct 1974: Con 39% (+3%) SNP 36% (+13%) Lab 17% (-3%) Lib 9% (-12%) (Con HOLD)
1979: Con 42% (+3%) SNP 24% (-12%) Lab 20% (+3%) Lib 14% (+5%) (Con HOLD)
1983: SDP 39% Con 34% (-8%) Lab 14% (-6%) SNP 14% (-10%) (SDP GAIN from Con)
1987: SDP 49% (+10%) Con 20% (-14%) Lab 19% (+5%) SNP 13% (-1%) (SDP HOLD)
1988: Charles Kennedy joins the Lib Dems
1992: Lib Dem 42% Con 23% (+3%) SNP 19% (+6%) Lab 15%(-4%) (Lib Dem GAIN from SDP)
1997: Lib Dem 39% (-3%) Lab 29% (+14%) SNP 20% (+1%) Con 11% (-12%) (Lib Dem HOLD)
2001: Lib Dem 54% (+15%) Lab 16% (-13%) SNP 14% (-6%) Con 9% (-2%) (Lib Dem HOLD)
2005: Lib Dem 59% (+5%) Lab 15% (-1%) Con 11% (+2%) SNP 10% (-4%) (Lib Dem HOLD)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks guys. Clearly, with the exception of Caithness & Sutherland (1966-1981) and Inverness, Nairn & Lochabar (1997-2005), the Highlands have never been particularly favourable for Labour

Wouldn't it be a nice great chunk of red on the map, if all three had ever been Labour simultaneously. Nicer still if Argyll was too

Perhaps then, we wouldn't get dunderheads coming up with such gems along the lines of If most of Scotland is orange and most of England blue, how do we get a Labour government? . Well ... A lot of people live in those red bits !

Looking at the North East of England it seems like Lib Dem Berwick and Tory Hexham seem to be geographically as large, if not larger, than Labour's 28 seats (i.e. 93% of all seats in the region). Labour came tantalisingly close to gaining Hexham in 1997, losing out by 222 votes

Dave

[Hash]

Perhaps then, we wouldn't get dunderheads coming up with such gems along the lines of If most of Scotland is orange and most of England blue, how do we get a Labour government? . Well ... A lot of people live in those red bits !

I love that quote, was a gem!

[Harry Hayfield]

There is a wonderful graphic shown during Election 2001 which demonstrates why we can get a Labour government when most big seats go blue and orange. As soon as I get my new computer which can read DVD + RW's, I shall create some YouTube videos showing the highlights of Elections 1964 - 2005, and that graphic will feature for 2001.

[Democratic Hawk]

There is a wonderful graphic shown during Election 2001 which demonstrates why we can get a Labour government when most big seats go blue and orange. As soon as I get my new computer which can read DVD + RW's, I shall create some YouTube videos showing the highlights of Elections 1964 - 2005, and that graphic will feature for 2001.

That would be cool

[Harry Hayfield]

It's a very poor quality REAL MEDIA file and as a result you can't see it in detail but pause this file at 24 seconds and you'll see what I mean

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1375000/video/_1376893_polls18_snow_vi.ram (Needs Real Player to play)

[Hash]

It's a very poor quality REAL MEDIA file and as a result you can't see it in detail but pause this file at 24 seconds and you'll see what I mean

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1375000/video/_1376893_polls18_snow_vi.ram (Needs Real Player to play)

I've always loved the BBC's electoral coverage of UK elections with swingometres, and maps etc. If only France or Canada could get like the UK...

Especially France, our electoral reporting sucks.

[minionofmidas]

Perhaps then, we wouldn't get dunderheads coming up with such gems along the lines of If most of Scotland is orange and most of England blue, how do we get a Labour government? . Well ... A lot of people live in those red bits !

I love that quote, was a gem!

Yep. Very well worded, even though I doubt you were the first to come up with it.

[Harry Hayfield]

There is a wonderful graphic shown during Election 2001 which demonstrates why we can get a Labour government when most big seats go blue and orange. As soon as I get my new computer which can read DVD + RW's, I shall create some YouTube videos showing the highlights of Elections 1964 - 2005, and that graphic will feature for 2001.

Here's the mid way version of that graphic

[Democratic Hawk]

Perhaps then, we wouldn't get dunderheads coming up with such gems along the lines of If most of Scotland is orange and most of England blue, how do we get a Labour government? . Well ... A lot of people live in those red bits !

I love that quote, was a gem!

Yep. Very well worded, even though I doubt you were the first to come up with it.

I recall spotting it it on the 'Have Your Say' comments on the BBC website re-General Election 2005 . The second part would have been my response

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Perhaps then, we wouldn't get dunderheads coming up with such gems along the lines of If most of Scotland is orange and most of England blue, how do we get a Labour government? . Well ... A lot of people live in those red bits !

I love that quote, was a gem!

Yep. Very well worded, even though I doubt you were the first to come up with it.

I recall spotting it it on the 'Have Your Say' comments on the BBC website re-General Election 2005 . The second part would have been my response

Dave

It's nowhere as good without the second part, so if that's your own contribution then hats off to you.

[afleitch]

Heres some graphics from the '92 vote one week before the election.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTUWM84If6c

''Almost certain to be on the opposition benches; the Conservatives''

Oh and part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPHSCW_Mr10&mode=related&search=

[Hash]

May I ask a question about NI? Why do the Conservatives run candidates in a few NI constituencies?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

May I ask a question about NI? Why do the Conservatives run candidates in a few NI constituencies?

Complicated. Read this: http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fnd95.htm

[Harry Hayfield]

May I ask a question about NI? Why do the Conservatives run candidates in a few NI constituencies?

And to make life even more complicated:

Election 1950: 10 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1951: 9 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1955: 10 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1959: 12 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1964: 12 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1966: 11 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1970: 8 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election Feb 1974: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election Oct 1974: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1979: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1983: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1987: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1992: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip (but on Election Night 1992, John Taylor MP (UUP, Stangford) said that the Ulster Unionists would not vote against a minority Conservative administration and in 1995 they actually supported the Conservatives in a formal role
Election 1997: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 2001: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 2005: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip

[Јas]

May I ask a question about NI? Why do the Conservatives run candidates in a few NI constituencies?

And to make life even more complicated:

Election 1950: 10 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1951: 9 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1955: 10 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1959: 12 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1964: 12 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1966: 11 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1970: 8 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election Feb 1974: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election Oct 1974: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1979: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1983: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1987: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 1992: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip (but on Election Night 1992, John Taylor MP (UUP, Stangford) said that the Ulster Unionists would not vote against a minority Conservative administration and in 1995 they actually supported the Conservatives in a formal role
Election 1997: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 2001: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip
Election 2005: 0 Ulster Unionists who take the Conservative whip

Pre-1974, the Unionists were (from at least any Westminster electoral perspective) the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland.
1974: Sunningdale Agreement. UUP stop taking the Tory whip in protest.
1985: Anglo-Irish Agreement. UUP consider Thatcher to have committed treason and links break down. Since the UUP abandoned the Conservatives, they now run their own operations there.

AFAIK the LibDems endorse the Alliance party's candidates and the SDLP has close ties with the Labour party (as well as pretty much all of the major Irish parties, I should point out).

[Harry Hayfield]

That's quite right. Alliance are the Lib Dems in Northern Ireland and I have always assumed that the SDLP would support Labour in a hung parliament.

BTW, go to YouTube, search for BBC Election 2001 and prepare to gawp!

[afleitch]

Autumn election is probably off the cards. After the internal Populus poll showing a 1 point gap, and the, once reliable YouGov's rogue poll there are rumours that a poll out tomorrow has Labour and the Tories neck and neck again. The most interesting figures, again, will be the Lib Dems and others.

I have a non-partisan feeling that should Labour lose it's lead in the coming weeks, it won't get it back again (excluding those 3 weeks of the conference season) before the next election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For what it's worth, I'm starting to suspect that both the Tories and Labour will poll a higher share of the vote in the next election than in 2005 (which would be a good thing even from a non-partisan point of view as it would indicate an increase in turnout).

After the internal Populus poll showing a 1 point gap,

Which, for those that don't know, was a poll commissioned for the Tories.

IMO no poll published in the Silly Season is worth the paper it's printed on. All those showing big Labour leads have been nice to see, but essentially meaningless.

[afleitch]

After the internal Populus poll showing a 1 point gap,

Which, for those that don't know, was a poll commissioned for the Tories.

Indeed - thats why I called it an internal poll

I think the Tories have the advantage of the fruits of the ongoing summer policy review; they are being announce, yes some are being attacked but they are out there for discussion and debate.

The questions I've posed since June is, what are Labour's policies under Gordon Brown? I know he doesn't want a referendum on the EU consti-treaty and would find it hard to back down as that would be a u-turn (yes), of a u-turn (no) of a u-turn (yes). I don't have a scooby as to what he plans for the health service (barring politically AandE closures avoiding the marginals if possible) or for education - hopefully onward with Blair's direction or (another) u-turn? I don't know what he's going to do about tax, or poverty. People may, rightfully, not agree with Conservative proposals - but they are beginning to be 'out there.' Labour have left a bit of a void that makes it difficult to fight an election without a policy platform. And replacing the 'we're not the Tories' rhetoric of the past 2 elections with a 'I'm not Tony Blair' rhetoric just wont cut it.

[Democratic Hawk]

Two new polls:

ComRes, The Independent, conducted August 29th - August 30th: CON 36% (+2); LAB 36% (-1); LDEM 15% (-1)

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2921878.ece

YouGov, GMTV: CON 35% (+2); LAB 38% (-3); LDEM 15% (+1)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The questions I've posed since June is, what are Labour's policies under Gordon Brown?

While the question I've been asking myself since December 2005 is David Cameron pretending to be something he isn't or not?

Is he a One-Nation Conservative? Is he a Liberal Conservative? Is he a Thatcherite reactionary neo-lib? Is he a Social Democrat? [bigging up the Swedish education system yesterday, Sweden might have a centre-right government that but, for the most part, there does not appear to have been some great dismantling of its enduring social democratic model]

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And not before time . I had a gut full of Cameron leading in the polls by default

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I'm sure it will be robust and visionary and committed to continuing  to take Britain FORWARD

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Labour just needs to focus, that in government, she has delivered sustained economic growth (something which I sincerely hope continues), the stability of which has given Britons, relative, financial (such as no punitive rate of interests, etc) and occupational security, for the first time in a generation (i.e. no recessions); improved public services, for the most part; and a much improved infrastructure from the decrepid one they inherited. The British people will ultimately decide whether it is worth rolling the dice on this or not

There is still a long way to go, however. Society remains ruptured in parts (the seeds of that being sown back in the 1980s an era which ushered in mass welfare dependency). I don't buy into the scaremongering "broken society" notion and retain a broadly optimistic outlook on the state of UK plc

Indeed, my worry is that come the next election is that many content people won't vote

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I have a non-partisan feeling that should Labour lose it's lead in the coming weeks, it won't get it back again (excluding those 3 weeks of the conference season) before the next election.

Depending on how well, or badly, the respective parties conferences are perceived as being a poll lead for one or the other might endure for some time

I hope Labour has a good one . Europe could be the smoking gun ...

I must say it would be encouraging to see the Conservatives' be characterised by rival factions tearing the hell out of one another (Labour had to go through it, so in all fairness, the Conservatives should too). We pushed our Left to the sidelines, where they occasionally toot from the fringe every once in a while. Purge your Cornerstoners, denounce the excesses of Thatcherite nasty-nomics, ... It could do them more good in the long term.

A Conservative Party of the centre -right, rather than the reactionary right, would be much more palatable to me. I may, gradually, become convinced that social justice genuinely does matter to the Conservative Party after the Thatcher hiatus

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

New poll:

Populus, The Times, conducted August 29th - September 2: CON 36% (+3); LAB 37% (-2); LDEM 18% (+3)

Not sure about silly season , it's getting to be more beyond a frickin joke season from where I'm sitting

Dave