UK Election 2010

[Harry Hayfield]

Galloway's confirmed he's running again: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6940517.stm

And you will note it's that new Poplar and Limehouse seat (that all my projections have going Respect), but interesting too that he thought about Blackburn as well (Lab 42% Con 23% Lib Dem 21% BNP 6% Ind 4% UKIP 2% Green 2%). That would have been an interesting Respect vs BNP battle.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I actually saw on SkyNews that Prime Minister Brown could call an early election. Brown may do this after his recent success after the planned car bombings, the floods and the foot-and-mouth outbreak. Also polls are suggesting that Prime Minister Brown would win against the Opposition led by David Cameron. Labor's lead over the Tory's is at a 5 year high, with them leading by 10 percentage points.

[Democratic Hawk]

I actually saw on SkyNews that Prime Minister Brown could call an early election. Brown may do this after his recent success after the planned car bombings, the floods and the foot-and-mouth outbreak. Also polls are suggesting that Prime Minister Brown would win against the Opposition led by David Cameron. Labor's lead over the Tory's is at a 5 year high, with them leading by 10 percentage points.

Yes, Labour are enjoying varying leads among all pollsters now but it remains to be seen what the polls will be telling us post-conference season

Brown has got off to a very good start, IMHO. A recent ICM poll gave Brown a satisfaction rating of +40% (59% satisfied; 19% disastisfied); while for Cameron it's -4% (38% satisfied; 42% disastisfied)

Even among Conservative voters 44% are satisfied with Brown; 36% disastisfied; with voting intentions as follows: Labour 39%; Conservative 33%; Lib Dem 18%; while the most recent YouGov has Labour 42%; Conservative 32%; Lib Dem 14%

Despite what the latest polls are saying, which point to an increased Labour majority, it seems difficult to conceive that Labour wouldn't lose seats

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Recent polling, on a uniform swing, indicates a Labour majority of between 70 (CommRes, July 29*) and 146 (YouGov, August 10*)

* denotes date fieldwork was completed

Dave

[afleitch]

A snap general election this year  is unlikely.

1. The economic climate is too varying, and the economic short term future too cloudy for Gordon to risk it.

2. Labour cannot finanically afford to fight a general election; they cannot match the Tories in funding where it counts and need time to build a war chest and convice the party faithful. unions and donors to cough up. They also need to boost their own grasroots membership.

3. The Tories have been fighting the marginals already using a local candidate and party based strategy (The 'Cameron Conservative' tag is really only a national label used in national campaigns and media saturated by-elections)

4. Labour need time to allow policy review groups to get rolling. Gordon says he's a details man and that's exactly what Labour needs to deliver.

5. It's impracticle to call an election before conference season. Labour need the exposure and need the policy discussion. Calling an election during the conference, forcing the Tories to abandon theirs would be probable media suicide and against the spirit of fair play. Leaving it until November cuts it too close to the Christmas shutdown

6. The 'Salmond leap.' The SNP in Scotland are, in Holyrood voting intention between 10% and 18% ahead of Labour (as believeable as a 10% Labour lead nationwide) While this won't translate into a lead, if any in Westminster voting intention, Labour cannot afford to lose safe seats in Scotland, and certainly not in the PM's backyard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A snap election will only be called if Brown is a) certain that he'll win it and b) convinced that he'll win it by a large margin.
Otherwise there's no point (from Brown, and Labour's, point of view) in an early election. Brown is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

2. Labour cannot finanically afford to fight a general election; they cannot match the Tories in funding where it counts and need time to build a war chest and convice the party faithful. unions and donors to cough up.

Probably not so much an issue next year as now though. But things are enough like that to rule out an election this year (unless a nasty civil war breaks out inside the Tory Party or something).

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All parties need to do that.

Of course the problems each party has there is different in each case; Labour has an excellent skeleton organisation (most constituencies have active CLP's, even ones with very low Labour votes in General Elections) but only a few CLP's have membership above skeleton level, the Tory problem is more-or-less the complete opposite of that (quite a few Conservative Associations boast large memberships, but in large parts of the country there is no real Tory organisation to speak of).

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The figures from that Scottish Opinion firm seem a little odd (SNP 48%, Lab 32%, Con 8%, LDem 8%) though. Do they have a track record of any sort?

[Harry Hayfield]

Taken from Adam Smith's blog:

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[Harry Hayfield]

There was an interesting debate on BBC Parliament this afternoon on the timing of a general election (and it raised the following thought in my head).

Let's suppose Brown goes for an October 2007 election. A campaign is usually 4 weeks long so if we say an October 25th election, that would mean an announcement on Thursday 27th September 2007 or before which just so happens to be the last day which is when the leader's speech is held.

Wouldn't it just be Brown to say at the end of his speech, "This morning I met the Queen to ask for a dissoultion of Parliament to which she has consented and that a general election will be held on October 25th 2007. Go back to your constituencies and work for that 4th Labour electon win!"

Certainly would kybosh Cameron's plans!

[Democratic Hawk]

YouGov in today's Sunday Times

Most Scots believe that independence is ahead

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2284286.ece

Voting intentions

Westminster [chanhes on January, 2007]

LAB 40% [+5]
SNP 31% [+3]
LD 15% [-4]
CON 14% [-2]

Prof. John Curtice of Strathclyde University says this would translate into: Lab 41 (+1); SNP 8 (+2); LD 8 (-3); Con 1 (n/c); Speaker 1

Holyrood - Constituency [changes on June, 2007]

SNP 32% [-6]
LAB 32% [+1]
LD 12% [n/c]
CON 12% [-2]

Holyrood - Regional [changes on June, 2007]

SNP 35% [+2]
LAB 32% [+4]
CON 13% [-1]
LD 12% [+2]

This would result in 49 Lab MSPs to 48 for the SNP, but it could go either way

Approvals

Both FM Salmond and the SNP Holyrood administration are enjoying high approvals at 65% and 64%, respectively; only 7% want Wendy Alexander as FM

Brown is enjoying a 76% approval as PM

When asked of Brown and Salmond, who is doing a better job, 40% say Brown, 26% Salmond and 26% say roughly the same

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I wish pollsters would do English regions more . It's not like they aren't big enough

Does any one think it conceivable that Labour might increase its vote, but win a smaller majority?

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

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Forecast according to UK Elect: Lab 41 (-1), SNP 11 (+5), Lib Dem 7 (-4), Con 0 (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Forecast according to UK Elect: Lab 41 (-1), SNP 11 (+5), Lib Dem 7 (-4), Con 0 (-1)

Do Labour gain Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?

Which constituencies do change hands? Looks to me like Labour could lose some, win some

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

Labour GAINS
Dumfriesshire from Conservatives
Inverness, Dunbartonshire East from Liberal Democrats

SNP GAINS
Gordon, Argyll from Liberal Democrats
Dundee West, Ochil, Kilmarnock from Labour

Summary
Conservatives GAIN 0 HOLD 0 LOSE 1 NET: -1
Labour GAIN 3 HOLD 38 LOSE 3 NET: Unchanged
Liberal Democrats GAIN 0 HOLD 7 LOSE 4 NET: -4
Scottish National Paty GAIN 5 HOLD 6 LOSE 0 NET: +5

[afleitch]

Labour GAINS
Dumfriesshire from Conservatives
Inverness, Dunbartonshire East from Liberal Democrats

SNP GAINS
Gordon, Argyll from Liberal Democrats
Dundee West, Ochil, Kilmarnock from Labour

Summary
Conservatives GAIN 0 HOLD 0 LOSE 1 NET: -1
Labour GAIN 3 HOLD 38 LOSE 3 NET: Unchanged
Liberal Democrats GAIN 0 HOLD 7 LOSE 4 NET: -4
Scottish National Paty GAIN 5 HOLD 6 LOSE 0 NET: +5

While I disagree with that assesment you're along the right lines. What happened in 2007; with seats like Stirling and Argyll flipping will have an effect on results that 2005 notionals and predictions based on them, often don't take into account (Im sure the same is true for Wales) I think Labour are likely to loose seats in Scotland (between 3 and 6) and I dont quite expect the Lib Dems to fall that far back unfortunately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not many results in Wales were that strange; they actually tended to mirror the previous set of local elections disturbingly well (with a few exceptions here and there).

[Harry Hayfield]

Not many results in Wales were that strange; they actually tended to mirror the previous set of local elections disturbingly well (with a few exceptions here and there).

I would like to counter that view in the following constituencies:

Ceredigion: 2005: Lib Dem GAIN from Plaid 2007: Plaid HOLD

In the local elections of 2004 (as far as I can tell) Plaid led the Independents by about 2%, according to my assessments at the next locals they might lose by 6%.

Preseli, Pembrokeshire: 2005: ConGAIN from Lab 2007:ConGAIN from Lab

Just like Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire was an Independent HOLD but from what I can tell there was a fractional swing to Lab in 2004, which was reversed in 2005 and 2007

[Verily]

Dumfriesshire from Conservatives
It will be hard for Labour to take this simply due to the Conservatives focusing all of their energies on their one Scotland seat.

Inverness, Dunbartonshire East from Liberal Democrats
Disagree on Invernesss; north Scotland loves its incumbents, and Danny Alexander wasn't one in 2005. Agree on Dunbartonshire East by the numbers, but Jo Swinson is very popular.

Gordon, Argyll from Liberal Democrats
Given the 2007 result, Argyll can't be ruled out, but the SNP did come in fourth at Westminster in 2005. Not a good starting point. Gordon can be ruled out, however, as the LDs won the area at the Scottish Parliament and the SNP was in fourth there in 2005, too.

Dundee West, Ochil, Kilmarnock from Labour
All three should fall on those numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I get the impression that we are very, very unlikely to see a uniform swing in Scotland next General election. It would probably be best to look over the Holyrood and Local results and work out from there (in fact I might eventually get round to doing that meself).

Not many results in Wales were that strange; they actually tended to mirror the previous set of local elections disturbingly well (with a few exceptions here and there).

I would like to counter that view in the following constituencies:

Ceredigion: 2005: Lib Dem GAIN from Plaid 2007: Plaid HOLD

In the local elections of 2004 (as far as I can tell) Plaid led the Independents by about 2%, according to my assessments at the next locals they might lose by 6%.

Preseli, Pembrokeshire: 2005: ConGAIN from Lab 2007:ConGAIN from Lab

Just like Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire was an Independent HOLD but from what I can tell there was a fractional swing to Lab in 2004, which was reversed in 2005 and 2007

Well, there are always a few exceptions. I wouldn't call Preseli Pembroke much of an exception though; local politics in Pembrokeshire is insane (as you probably know the county is ruled by the usual good old boys network, rather like Powys or Anglesey) and has little to do with other elections.

[afleitch]

One neglected nugget of info (although it is very difficult and sensitive to measure) was Labour's leakage of the working class 'protestant' vote to the SNP most noticably at council level in the 'weathervanes' of Airdrie and Larkhall and Irvine (Bridgeton held steady due to the Catholic vote in Calton; still difficult to prise them out of that 'funk')

As for the SNP's 'new town' strategy it was a mixed bag; strong gains on the councils, but wanting elsewhere. Labour held onto East Kilbride and Cumbernauld (where it swung in its direction) It did suffer a larger than expected swing against it in Irvine (Cunninghame South) and the SNP of course won in Glenrothes (Fife Central) and in Livingston (a boost - it's close to hitting the 100,000 and will merit two seats in the next review but one)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weren't the Highlands Labour prior to the advent of the SDP?

Dave

Caithness & Sutherland was from the '60's onwards (but that was probably as much to do with a personal vote for Maclennan (who o/c defected to the SDP) as much as anything else). Inverness was Liberal from '64 and Ross & Cromarty was Tory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One neglected nugget of info (although it is very difficult and sensitive to measure) was Labour's leakage of the working class 'protestant' vote to the SNP most noticably at council level in the 'weathervanes' of Airdrie and Larkhall and Irvine (Bridgeton held steady due to the Catholic vote in Calton; still difficult to prise them out of that 'funk')

Sectarianism is disturbing, but interesting. So...

---

Larkhall results in 2007:

Labour 50.2%
SNP 30.3%
Tory 7.9%
Unionist (!) 6.5%
LDem 4.9%

A lot of Unionist votes weren't transfered, but those that were went:

Tory 38%
SNP 32%
Labour 28%

(and when the Tory was eliminated, transfers were something like 80% for the SNP)

Larkhall results in 2003 (from the three wards prefixed with Larkhall. No idea how different the new multi-member ward is)

Labour  55% 
SNP 33%
Tory  8.4%
LDem  3%

The same three wards but with Dalserf (which seems to have included the fringes of Larkhall so might be in the new seat?) added as well:

Labour 52.7%
SNP 35.2%
Tory  9.8%
LDem 2%

Not quite sure what any of that indicates, but it was fun to do anyway.

---

Ah, I'm too tired now to do the others properly. Oh well.

Airdrie South; Labour fp lead over SNP of 143 votes, Airdrie Central; Labour lead of 161 votes, Airdrie North SNP lead of 406 votes.

Not able to compare with 2003 because I can't work out from the old ward map where Airdrie begins and ends. Most wards seem to have been Labour by reasonable-to-large margins, though one (Clarkston) went strongly SNP.

---

And I can't work out Irvine because North Ayrshire council didn't put a party description next to candidate names on their websites.

Damn. 

[Harry Hayfield]

Caithness and Sutherland
1950: Con 36% Lab 30% Lib 34% (Con win)
1951: Con 49% (+13%) Lab 34% (+4%) Lib 17% (-17%) (Con HOLD)
1955: Con 57% (+8%) Lab 29% (-5%) Lib 14% (-3%) (Con HOLD)
1959: Ind 65% Lab 35% (Ind GAIN from Con)
1964: Lib 36% Lab 30% Con 21% Ind 13% (Lib GAIN from Ind)
1966: Lab 39% (+9%) Lib 39% (+3%) Con 22% (+1%) (Lab GAIN from Lib)
1970: Lab 37% (-2%) Lib 25% (-14%) Con 22% (n/c) SNP 15% (Lab HOLD)
Feb 1974: Lab 36% (-1%) Lib 26% (+1%) Con 22% (n/c) SNP 16% (+1%) (Lab HOLD)
Oct 1974: Lab 35% (-1%) SNP 24% (+8%) Lib 22% (-4%) Con 19% (-3%) (Lab HOLD)
1979: Lab 41% (+6%) Con 31% (+12%) SNP 28% (+4%) (Lab HOLD)
1981: McLennan defects to SDP
1983: SDP 52% Con 23% Lab 14% SNP 11% (SDP GAIN from Lab)
1987: SDP 54% (+2%) Con 17% (-6%) Lab 15% (+1%) SNP 10% (-1) (SDP HOLD)
1988: McLennan joins Lib Dems
1992: Lib Dem 45% Con 21% SNP 18% Lab 16% (Lib Dem gain from SDP)
1997: Lib Dem 36% (-9%) Lab 27% (+9%) SNP 23% (+5%) Con 11% (-10%) (Lib Dem HOLD)
2001: Lib Dem 36% (n/c) Lab 25% (-2%) SNP 21% (-2%) Con 14% (+3%) (Lib Dem HOLD)
2005: Lib Dem 50% (+14%) Lab 21% (-4%) SNP 13% (-8%) Con 10% (-4) (Lib Dem HOLD)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Indie was actually the former Tory M.P for the seat who left the party for some reason that I've never been able to find out.

[Harry Hayfield]

Inverness
1950: Con 45% Lab 32% Lib 23% (Con win)
1951: Con 65% (+20%) Lab 35% (+3%) (Con HOLD)
1955: Con 41% (-24%) Lib 39% (+39%) Lab 20% (-15%) Lib 39% (+39%) (Con HOLD)
1959: Con 44% (+3%) Lib 33% (-6%) Lab 23% (+3%) (Con HOLD)
1964: Lib 40% (+7%) Con 34% (-10%) Lab 26% (+3%) (Lib GAIN from Con)
1966: Lib 39% (-1%) Con 33% (-1%) Lab 28% (+2%) (Lib HOLD)
1970: Lib 38% (-1%) Con 32% (-1%) Lab 23% (-5%) SNP 7% (+7%) (Lib HOLD)
Feb 1974: Lib 39% (+1%) Con 27% (-5%) SNP 18% (+11%) Lab 17% (-6%) (Lib HOLD)
Oct 1974: Lib 32% (-7%) SNP 30% (+12%) Con 22% (-5%) Lab 16% (-1%) (Lib HOLD)
1979: Lib 34% (+2%) Con 25% (+3%) SNP 21% (-9%) Lab 21% (+5%) (Lib HOLD)
1983: Lib 46% (+12%) Con 30% (+5%) Lab 14% (-7%) SNP 10% (-11%) (Lib HOLD)
1987: Lib 37% (-9%) Lab 25% (+11%) Con 23% (-7%) SNP 15% (+5%) (Lib HOLD)
1992: Lib Dem 26% (-9%) Lab 25% (n/c) SNP 25% (+10%) Con 23% (n/c) (Lib Dem HOLD)*
* This result holds the record for the closest four way marginal in British history, the next closest is Watford 2005
1997: Lab 34% (+9%) SNP 29% (+4%) Lib Dem 18% (-8%) Con 17% (-6%) (Lab GAIN from Lib Dem)
2001: Lab 37% (+3%) SNP 26% (-3%) Lib Dem 22% (+4%) Con 13% (-4%) (Lab HOLD)
2005: Lib Dem 40% (+28%) Lab 31% (-6%) SNP 13% (-13%) Con 10% (-3%) (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Inverness
1950: Con 45% Lab 32% Lib 23% (Con win)
1951: Con 65% (+20%) Lab 35% (+3%) (Con HOLD)
1955: Con 41% (-24%) Lib 39% (+39%) Lab 20% (-15%) Lib 39% (+39%) (Con HOLD)
1959: Con 44% (+3%) Lib 33% (-6%) Lab 23% (+3%) (Con HOLD)
1964: Lib 40% (+7%) Con 34% (-10%) Lab 26% (+3%) (Lib GAIN from Con)
1966: Lib 39% (-1%) Con 33% (-1%) Lab 28% (+2%) (Lib HOLD)
1970: Lib 38% (-1%) Con 32% (-1%) Lab 23% (-5%) SNP 7% (+7%) (Lib HOLD)
Feb 1974: Lib 39% (+1%) Con 27% (-5%) SNP 18% (+11%) Lab 17% (-6%) (Lib HOLD)
Oct 1974: Lib 32% (-7%) SNP 30% (+12%) Con 22% (-5%) Lab 16% (-1%) (Lib HOLD)
1979: Lib 34% (+2%) Con 25% (+3%) SNP 21% (-9%) Lab 21% (+5%) (Lib HOLD)

Some fairly significant boundary changes here.

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Radical boundary changes here.

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