NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Birdish]

We're getting a poll from them Wednesday or Thursday, although I don't have a particularly favorable opinion of FDU polls. But it'll be nice to have a data point.

[Senator Incitatus]

We're getting a poll from them Wednesday or Thursday, although I don't have a particularly favorable opinion of FDU polls. But it'll be nice to have a data point.

They were one of the few that overestimated Murphy in 2021 (as opposed to just underestimating Ciattarelli), though not outside their margin for error.

[Birdish]

We're getting a poll from them Wednesday or Thursday, although I don't have a particularly favorable opinion of FDU polls. But it'll be nice to have a data point.

They were one of the few that overestimated Murphy in 2021 (as opposed to just underestimating Ciattarelli), though not outside their margin for error.

I'm not saying they have a bias, just that their numbers can be very random at times. I'd have much preferred Monmouth do a poll this go around. Although we still might get something from them.

[Ferguson97]

Local control is a huge thing in New Jersey, particularly in Bergen County. People are pretty hostile to things like municipal consolidation (even though it's an obviously good idea), so I wouldn't necessarily take a poll showing support for "parental control of schools" to mean that the GOP's messaging on this issue is effective. This is also one of those issues where how you present it is going to matter a lot. Someone who is not very tuned-in to politics and isn't aware of all of the culture war nonsense, is probably going to just understand the question to mean what it means. It doesn't necessarily mean they're gun-ho about book bans.

[Birdish]

Local control is a huge thing in New Jersey, particularly in Bergen County. People are pretty hostile to things like municipal consolidation (even though it's an obviously good idea), so I wouldn't necessarily take a poll showing support for "parental control of schools" to mean that the GOP's messaging on this issue is effective. This is also one of those issues where how you present it is going to matter a lot. Someone who is not very tuned-in to politics and isn't aware of all of the culture war nonsense, is probably going to just understand the question to mean what it means. It doesn't necessarily mean they're gun-ho about book bans.

We saw in the recent Monmouth poll that even a large majority of democrats supported schools contacting them if their children came out as trans.

I'm skeptical it actually having a major effect on the race one way or another like Dan Cassino is suggesting though.

"Whenever I have effects this big, I double check and bring in an outside analyst it to confirm."

[Senator Incitatus]

Local control is a huge thing in New Jersey, particularly in Bergen County. People are pretty hostile to things like municipal consolidation (even though it's an obviously good idea), so I wouldn't necessarily take a poll showing support for "parental control of schools" to mean that the GOP's messaging on this issue is effective. This is also one of those issues where how you present it is going to matter a lot. Someone who is not very tuned-in to politics and isn't aware of all of the culture war nonsense, is probably going to just understand the question to mean what it means. It doesn't necessarily mean they're gun-ho about book bans.

This is the second post in this thread actively confusing the issue and ignoring the real softball that has been thrown to Republicans. There's nothing going on involving "book bans" and there's no question which side of this issue is the "local control" side. Nobody is pretending otherwise except in these comments.

The Murphy administration is actively suing local school districts. They have taken an explicit and aggressive position that school districts cannot legally adopt a policy requiring school officials to inform parents if their child changes their gender expression, because this policy would amount to harming children. (And while the legal issues are being worked out in the courts, other school districts have rescinded less stringent parental notification policies for fear of being sued.)  It's the most aggressive pro-trans stance anywhere in the country and doesn't sync with local control no matter how you cut it. Murphy has chosen his position, and he's standing by it with no spin. (Honestly, pretty refreshing.)

Legislative Democrats notably aren't standing by Murphy on his equity-in-education agenda, so the question isn't really how this issue polls but how effectively candidates can distance themselves from it. It shouldn't be too hard in theory.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just think that every moment the New Jersey Republicans are talking about this niche, complicated crap it's a moment taking away from what is usually a very effective winning message focused on cost-of-living and property taxes.

Meanwhile, Democrats, from what I've seen, are touting the anchor benefit program (something Murphy should have pressed more in 2021). Aren't "kitchen table issues" supposed to be more resonant?

But I guess it doesn't matter. It's probably going to be a 2019-esque year. The Republicans are going to turn out as they always do, but did they really need more galvanization from their trans obsession? That's really my point here. I suppose we'll see what that poll suggests.

[Senator Incitatus]

I just think that every moment the New Jersey Republicans are talking about this niche, complicated crap it's a moment taking away from what is usually a very effective winning message focused on cost-of-living and property taxes.

It's not niche nor complicated. The Attorney General of New Jersey sued school districts to stop them from informing parents about their children and is very proud of it. It was front page news across the state, and opposition to Platkin's suit has been a popular core to the Republican platform ever since. Basically the only person going to bat for him is Murphy.

Meanwhile, Democrats, from what I've seen, are touting the anchor benefit program (something Murphy should have pressed more in 2021). Aren't "kitchen table issues" supposed to be more resonant?

Their main focus is abortion. StayNJ is probably their second plank, but it had bipartisan support, doesn't do anything at all until 2026, and isn't actually guaranteed to go into effect at all.

Murphy also couldn't campaign on it in 2021; they only proposed and passed it this year. It was largely a response to his shock margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just think that every moment the New Jersey Republicans are talking about this niche, complicated crap it's a moment taking away from what is usually a very effective winning message focused on cost-of-living and property taxes.

It's not niche nor complicated. The Attorney General of New Jersey sued school districts to stop them from informing parents about their children and is very proud of it. It was front page news across the state, and opposition to Platkin's suit has been a popular core to the Republican platform ever since. Basically the only person going to bat for him is Murphy.

Meanwhile, Democrats, from what I've seen, are touting the anchor benefit program (something Murphy should have pressed more in 2021). Aren't "kitchen table issues" supposed to be more resonant?

Their main focus is abortion. StayNJ is probably their second plank, but it had bipartisan support, doesn't do anything at all until 2026, and isn't actually guaranteed to go into effect at all.

Murphy also couldn't campaign on it in 2021; they only proposed and passed it this year. It was largely a response to his shock margin.

I swear I remember helping my mom file for it the year of that election, and when she got her refund in her account I said to myself: "why didn't Murphy and the Democrats campaign on this!?"

And evidently, abortion has definitely been the main tocus of the Demicrats this year, but they are at least trying to get residents to recognize what they've done in turn to address property tax concerns, previously they either ignored it or spoke in vagueries.

As for the whole trans school policy, evidently I was not privy to it. I'm curious if there have evenbeen any examples of it happening yet to justify this as the outrage it's being made out to be, or if it's still just theoretical as something that can happen which puts some at ease. Personally, if s child is more comfortable informing aneducator about their gender identity more than their parents, I would have to question how those parents would react and whether the child knows it would be worse for them to know or not. I don't care if that's controversial, I see right through the "parents rights" nonsense.

 It also seems like an incredibly astronomical possibility to even warrant being such concern, and it makes me want to vote against Republicans even more. I'm probably an outlier, but that was the first ad I saw from New Jersey Republicans all year.

[Birdish]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/parental-involvement-in-school-curriculum-is-huge-election-issue-and-favors-gop-poll-says/

The FDU poll

Democrats have an 8 point lead, 37%-29%.

However, theres a portion where they turn it into a push poll and ask about the parents right issue, then the top line question and it drops to a 1 point lead. I belive its a different group because it's intially a 16 point lead(not the 8 point lead).

A generic statewide ballot gives Democrats a 37%-29% advantage over Republicans in races for the legislature, although most districts do not have competitive races.   But among independents, the generic ballot is a dead heat: 16% for Republicans and 18% for Democrats, with 53% still undecided.

Among all residents, those not asked about parental involvement first give Democrats a 42%-26% edge, but when primed, Democrats lead by just one percentage point, 33%-32%.

I dont quite understand what was done here.

[wbrocks67]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/parental-involvement-in-school-curriculum-is-huge-election-issue-and-favors-gop-poll-says/

The FDU poll

Democrats have an 8 point lead, 37%-29%.

However, theres a portion where they turn it into a push poll and ask about the parents right issue, then the top line question and it drops to a 1 point lead. I belive its a different group because it's intially a 16 point lead(not the 8 point lead).

A generic statewide ballot gives Democrats a 37%-29% advantage over Republicans in races for the legislature, although most districts do not have competitive races.   But among independents, the generic ballot is a dead heat: 16% for Republicans and 18% for Democrats, with 53% still undecided.

Among all residents, those not asked about parental involvement first give Democrats a 42%-26% edge, but when primed, Democrats lead by just one percentage point, 33%-32%.

I dont quite understand what was done here.

Yeah I'm quite confused too. The write-up reads like a GOP press release; like you said, it seems like a push poll. Just simply asking about parental control in schools itself would not lead to a 15% difference in voting intention. Not only that, but why is a nonpartisan poll vouching for the GOPs position here? The push here is that this is "bad for Dems" when in reality, the GOP is attacking Dems on this issue, but that's it. To me, the poll is taking a position that the GOPs bad faith attacks are essentially accurate, and then going from there. Very odd.

[wbrocks67]

This was the wording:

NJ2. [Half get this question here, half after NJ4a] In recent years, there has been a movement to give parents more control over what is, and is not, taught in public schools in New Jersey. How much influence do you think parents of K through 12 students should have over what’s taught in their schools?

Parents should be able to decide what schools teach
Parents should have some influence over what schools teach
Parents should not really influence what schools teach
[Not sure/Don’t Know]

https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-parental-control-arguments-hit-democrats-hard-in-nj-legislative-races/

Yeah, I don't see how simply asking that question or not leads to a 15% difference in vote intention.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/parental-involvement-in-school-curriculum-is-huge-election-issue-and-favors-gop-poll-says/

The FDU poll

Democrats have an 8 point lead, 37%-29%.

However, theres a portion where they turn it into a push poll and ask about the parents right issue, then the top line question and it drops to a 1 point lead. I belive its a different group because it's intially a 16 point lead(not the 8 point lead).

A generic statewide ballot gives Democrats a 37%-29% advantage over Republicans in races for the legislature, although most districts do not have competitive races.   But among independents, the generic ballot is a dead heat: 16% for Republicans and 18% for Democrats, with 53% still undecided.

Among all residents, those not asked about parental involvement first give Democrats a 42%-26% edge, but when primed, Democrats lead by just one percentage point, 33%-32%.

I dont quite understand what was done here.

David Wildstein butchering English and statistics again. Just read the poll release, which he essentially copy and pasted while removing clarifying terms: https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-parental-control-arguments-hit-democrats-hard-in-nj-legislative-races/

Overall Ballot: 36-27
    Unprimed Ballot: 44-26
          Unprimed Independents: 28-8
    Primed Ballot: 33-32
          Primed Independents: 8-24

Overall Independents: 18-16

Wouldn’t read much into this. The issue clearly favors Republicans, but messaging in NJ is hard and the race will still come down to turnout. The baseline favors the Democratic Party (duh).

[wbrocks67]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/parental-involvement-in-school-curriculum-is-huge-election-issue-and-favors-gop-poll-says/

The FDU poll

Democrats have an 8 point lead, 37%-29%.

However, theres a portion where they turn it into a push poll and ask about the parents right issue, then the top line question and it drops to a 1 point lead. I belive its a different group because it's intially a 16 point lead(not the 8 point lead).

A generic statewide ballot gives Democrats a 37%-29% advantage over Republicans in races for the legislature, although most districts do not have competitive races.   But among independents, the generic ballot is a dead heat: 16% for Republicans and 18% for Democrats, with 53% still undecided.

Among all residents, those not asked about parental involvement first give Democrats a 42%-26% edge, but when primed, Democrats lead by just one percentage point, 33%-32%.

I dont quite understand what was done here.

David Wildstein butchering English and statistics again. Just read the poll release, which he essentially copy and pasted while removing clarifying terms: https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-parental-control-arguments-hit-democrats-hard-in-nj-legislative-races/

Overall Ballot: 36-27
    Unprimed Ballot: 44-26
          Unprimed Independents: 28-8
    Primed Ballot: 33-32
          Primed Independents: 8-24

Overall Independents: 18-16

Wouldn’t read much into this. The issue clearly favors Republicans, but messaging in NJ is hard and the race will still come down to turnout. The baseline favors the Democratic Party (duh).

It's still odd though, I feel like in many actual push polls, you don't even see a shift like that. So to see a shift like this with just asking the question they worded above, doesn't make much sense.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

[wbrocks67]

Ballots requested: 922,759
Dem: 528,468 (57.3%)
Rep: 171,193 (18.6%)

Ballots returned: 240,190
Dem: 158,204 (65.9%)
Rep: 52,320 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 29.9%
Rep return rate: 30.6%

[wbrocks67]

The returns are looking nearly identical to 2021 so far

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1714780662396248565

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

I've kind of just come to expect that. It seems like my state just always likes being counter to its Governor in off-years.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

I've kind of just come to expect that. It seems like my state just always likes being counter to its Governor in off-years.

I think it's kind of nice for states like New Jersey and Louisiana to have a little detachment from national politics. I wish it didn't come at the expense of turnout/engagement overall, but it keeps things a little more sane than they otherwise would be.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1715060476156027213

[Roll Roons]

Ah yes, a PPP poll commissioned by the state teachers union. A totally unbiased and accurate source that we should totally trust, right?

[Tintrlvr]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

I've kind of just come to expect that. It seems like my state just always likes being counter to its Governor in off-years.

I think it's kind of nice for states like New Jersey and Louisiana to have a little detachment from national politics. I wish it didn't come at the expense of turnout/engagement overall, but it keeps things a little more sane than they otherwise would be.

The problem is that national elections still happen, which means voters in NJ and LA (and also other odd-year states) vote in meaningful elections every single year, which inherently reduces engagement and interest. There's no way to get around that. The US has other similar problems (House elections every two years are a major mistake) but the off-year states just exacerbate it.

They don't get insulated from national trends by it, either. Think of the tendency for NJ and VA to elect governors opposite from the current President's party, e.g.

There's no good reason for off-year elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ah yes, a PPP poll commissioned by the state teachers union. A totally unbiased and accurate source that we should totally trust, right?

Average it with the FDU push poll, I say.

The reality is probably somewhere in between. I can see the policy being unpopular overall, but not exactly something that will motivate voters who aren't already staunch Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 923,984
Dem: 528,921 (57.2%)
Rep: 171,570 (18.6%)

Total ballots returned: 253,226
Dem: 166,832 (65.9%)
Rep: 54,816 (21.6%)

Dem return rate: 31.5%
Rep return rate: 31.9%