NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[jman123]

How do you see the NJ Legislature elections next month. Do you see Republicans making gains? Do you see Republicans gaining the majority?

[Duke of York]

A majority is very unlikely.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Republicans probably flip two Senate seats and four Assembly seats-specifically that Camden County and that Monmouth-Ocean districts with the retiring Democrats.

Otherwise, I think the Virginia state elections are a better indicator of what might be in store for next year.

Though the issues in both states seem pertinent. New Jersey Democrats are going all-in on Dobbs. We'll see how it pans out versus Virginia where the higher likelihood of a GOP trifecta makes the issue more salient.

New Jersey is still a state where lower turnout elections benefit the GOP, so I don't think it will work as well here.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans probably flip two Senate seats and four Assembly seats-specifically that Camden County and that Monmouth-Ocean districts with the retiring Democrats.

Otherwise, I think the Virginia state elections are a better indicator of what might be in store for next year.

Though the issues in both states seem pertinent. New Jersey Democrats are going all-in on Dobbs. We'll see how it pans out versus Virginia where the higher likelihood of a GOP trifecta makes the issue more salient.

New Jersey is still a state where lower turnout elections benefit the GOP, so I don't think it will work as well here.

Democrats don’t hold any Monmouth-Ocean Assembly districts (they technically have the senate seat due to the party switching Dem).  It’s Republicans that are at risk in the Dem leaning Monmouth Assembly seat.

Also keep in mind that the Camden/Gloucester seat with the retiring Dems still went for Biden by 7.

[wbrocks67]

Dems seem locked in so far; here's the early vote: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2023-early-vote/2023-new-jersey-general-election-early-vote/#tab-37751

VBM requests are D+39 but returns right now are D+44

[Senator Incitatus]

Dems seem locked in so far; here's the early vote: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2023-early-vote/2023-new-jersey-general-election-early-vote/#tab-37751

VBM requests are D+39 but returns right now are D+44

I'm seeing +43, but I wouldn't read much into this. In 2021, not a very good year for the New Jersey Democratic Party (but also one in which Republican animosity toward mail voting was higher), this number was +42 in late October.

All of this should also be considered in light of the fact that Republicans have multiple clear pickup opportunities, while Democrats have only one or two, since so many of their voters are in safely Democratic districts and they hold most swing districts.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Republicans probably flip two Senate seats and four Assembly seats-specifically that Camden County and that Monmouth-Ocean districts with the retiring Democrats.

Otherwise, I think the Virginia state elections are a better indicator of what might be in store for next year.

Though the issues in both states seem pertinent. New Jersey Democrats are going all-in on Dobbs. We'll see how it pans out versus Virginia where the higher likelihood of a GOP trifecta makes the issue more salient.

New Jersey is still a state where lower turnout elections benefit the GOP, so I don't think it will work as well here.

Democrats don’t hold any Monmouth-Ocean Assembly districts (they technically have the senate seat due to the party switching Dem).  It’s Republicans that are at risk in the Dem leaning Monmouth Assembly seat.

Also keep in mind that the Camden/Gloucester seat with the retiring Dems still went for Biden by 7.

Forgot about all that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NJ Dems hood their majorities, but dramatically underrun Biden. GOP has a strong local brand and favorable turnout dynamics in the places it matters, and generally NJ GOP does a good job at not nominating crazies. I expect South Jersey to be particularly brutal for Dems, as it was in 2021. Ds prolly hold their ground a bit better in North Jersey

[Ferguson97]

Democrats maintain their majority but Republicans have a net gain of seats.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1711793932630122906

[kwabbit]

LD-38 and LD-16 are the two stretch seats the GOP would need to tie the Senate. The Democrats are both completely unopposed spending wise. GOP donors could get some good bang for their buck if they invested in some of these NJ races. There are enough conservadems in NJ to thwart Murphy if they got to 19 seats. The legislature is not nearly as polarized as in Virginia.

[Senator Incitatus]

Pretty remarkable that Bramnick’s district is uncontested spending wise. And why are Republicans spending in Newark (not even the Hispanic district)? These are specific to advertising, I think, which is one of the least effective ways of spending in NJ.

[kwabbit]

Pretty remarkable that Bramnick’s district is uncontested spending wise. And why are Republicans spending in Newark (not even the Hispanic district)? These are specific to advertising, I think, which is one of the least effective ways of spending in NJ.

Are these spending numbers reflecting internal data or are Dems lighting money on fire in LD-16? I know sometimes you have some inside info. A Biden +20 left-trending seat does not seem to be easily winnable for the GOP but maybe Dems are spending for a reason.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I live in LD-38, and I can tell you that the Democrats have been blanketing the airwaves with ads and mailboxes with mailers. Nothing from the Republicans.

However, the Republican candidates are significantly winning the yard sign wars. I don't kjow if that's a good indicator though since my town is Republican leaning.

[Senator Incitatus]

Pretty remarkable that Bramnick’s district is uncontested spending wise. And why are Republicans spending in Newark (not even the Hispanic district)? These are specific to advertising, I think, which is one of the least effective ways of spending in NJ.

Are these spending numbers reflecting internal data or are Dems lighting money on fire in LD-16? I know sometimes you have some inside info. A Biden +20 left-trending seat does not seem to be easily winnable for the GOP but maybe Dems are spending for a reason.

Like my post said, I have questions about what this is spending on.

Because advertising in New Jersey (especially on television) is so expensive, it's more cost-effective to pour money into canvassing/pamphlets, internal polling, etc. Advertising in New Jersey is really a fat-tail phenomenon, meaning that when one campaign is outspending the other by a lot, that party will be the only one spending on advertising. And on the other end, you'll also see particularly vain candidates burn money on advertising because they like to see their own faces/hear their own voices. Not naming names, but I'd guess that's where the Republican money in Newark is going.

And even if this is an accurate chart of total spend by campaign funds, a lot of the spending in NJ is done by the county and state parties, which may cover multiple campaigns at once and wouldn't show up on an itemized chart. That's why the state has seen historic upsets, like Durr last cycle, Bill Baroni in 2003 come apparently out of nowhere at all. They were putting in the work in ways that wasn't showing up on expense reports.

I don't really doubt at all that NJDP is outspending the Republicans, maybe even 2- or 3-to-1, but this chart inaccurately implies that the Republicans (and Democrats in the Somerset-Union district) aren't running a campaign whatsoever. That's all I wanted to ask about.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

The 4th district seems to be heavily favoring the Republicans, at least in the top-billed Senate race.

The 11th is probably a toss-up for both seats, and Republicans have a decent shot in 38.

But I still have a hard time seeing 14 or 16 flipping, as they’d need for control. As I mentioned in another thread, demographic trends in that area remain brutal for Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

Yeah, the data isn't bearing this out yet. Dems are slightly ahead of their overall share of the vote in VBM returns vs 2021 and 2022

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1712131371022311726

[Duke of York]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

not the greatest source and data is not  bearing this out just yet.

[Birdish]

Politico loves its Dems-in-Dissaray articles.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

The 4th district seems to be heavily favoring the Republicans, at least in the top-billed Senate race.

The 11th is probably a toss-up for both seats, and Republicans have a decent shot in 38.

But I still have a hard time seeing 14 or 16 flipping, as they’d need for control. As I mentioned in another thread, demographic trends in that area remain brutal for Republicans.

No. 4 is a toss-up, Dems are favored in 11, and are heavily favored in 38.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If you want another anecdotal observation, the New Jersey GOP is being very subtle in its advertising when it comes to displaying what party their candidates beling to. You really have to search in their mailers to find the "_{paid for by the Bergen County Republican Committee}." They are also making their yard signs blue this time around, where lower information voters might not even recognize which party the candidates beling to. It kind if reminds me of 2017 and 2018 when the party was at its lowest point.

Make of that what you will. I personally still expect a 2019 sort of year across the state.

[Pollster]

I am polling in multiple legislative seats this cycle but am bound by a stronger than usual confidentiality agreement so can't share much - but what I can say (as I'm not involved in the race) is that what is left of the Norcross machine is on an absolute warpath against Durr in the 3rd district.

[Senator Incitatus]

I am polling in multiple legislative seats this cycle but am bound by a stronger than usual confidentiality agreement so can't share much - but what I can say (as I'm not involved in the race) is that what is left of the Norcross machine is on an absolute warpath against Durr in the 3rd district.

Yeah, they've basically launched an entire campaign of attack ads against him highlighting he liked on Facebook circa 2010–17.

[Birdish]

It's hard to imagine Republican's gaining either house unless democrat turnout absolutely crashes from prior years.

2021 was an almost perfect year for Republicans with high Republican turnout and they didn't come particular close to flipping either house. Republican's have been hammering on culture war issues but it feels like NJ would be a state where that type of thing doesn't play all that well. On the flip side, NJ probably has the NY problem where dem leaning voters arent worried about abortion rights being taken away, so the issue doesn't boost turn out.