NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Senator Incitatus]

Here is one of the ads I have ever seen:

[wbrocks67]

I am polling in multiple legislative seats this cycle but am bound by a stronger than usual confidentiality agreement so can't share much - but what I can say (as I'm not involved in the race) is that what is left of the Norcross machine is on an absolute warpath against Durr in the 3rd district.

Can confirm this at least in terms of ads - I've seen nonstop anti-Durr adds in the Philly tv market.

[Mr.Phips]

It's hard to imagine Republican's gaining either house unless democrat turnout absolutely crashes from prior years.

2021 was an almost perfect year for Republicans with high Republican turnout and they didn't come particular close to flipping either house. Republican's have been hammering on culture war issues but it feels like NJ would be a state where that type of thing doesn't play all that well. On the flip side, NJ probably has the NY problem where dem leaning voters arent worried about abortion rights being taken away, so the issue doesn't boost turn out.

If seats like SD-11 and SD-38 didn’t flip in a year like 2021, they won’t this year.   SD-04 is a different story as Dems stupidly agreed to make it less Dem (they should have instead agreed to make Durr safer) and the incumbent retired.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1712891847146652046

[Devils30]

The Dems just didn't want to go for the North Jersey Biden/R districts. To be fair, the incumbents are very strong RINOs. Overall, I don't think more than a half-dozen assembly and two Senate seats flip and it's very possible nothing flips either way. Dems are not losing LD-16, this is not 2014 and Biden won it by 20.

[Senator Incitatus]

The Dems just didn't want to go for the North Jersey Biden/R districts. To be fair, the incumbents are very strong RINOs. Overall, I don't think more than a half-dozen assembly and two Senate seats flip and it's very possible nothing flips either way. Dems are not losing LD-16, this is not 2014 and Biden won it by 20.

Agreed on LD16. I think there are still a broad range of outcomes and I could see the Democratic candidates for Assembly in LD21 winning by accident, even alongside Republican gains elsewhere (though I ultimately think Bramnick is too savvy to let that happen). Low turnout always means opportunity for surprises.

[wbrocks67]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

[S019]

The Dems just didn't want to go for the North Jersey Biden/R districts. To be fair, the incumbents are very strong RINOs. Overall, I don't think more than a half-dozen assembly and two Senate seats flip and it's very possible nothing flips either way. Dems are not losing LD-16, this is not 2014 and Biden won it by 20.

I don’t know if I’d use the descriptor RINO. My district was ultra-marginal in 2020 (Trump+1) and my state Senator was Trump’s NJ campaign chair.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

[Duke of York]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

Sounds like decent returns so far Democrats.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

Sounds like decent returns so far Democrats.

Traditionally these numbers have been pretty much meaningless outside of Nevada.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

Sounds like decent returns so far Democrats.

Traditionally these numbers have been pretty much meaningless outside of Nevada.

To the extent these numbers mean anything at all, it's a slight but not significant marginal improvement by attrition for Republicans versus their banner year in 2021.

For reference, from October 22, 2021:
Ballots requested: 941,020 ↓ 22,585 to 918,435
Dem: 533,189 (56.7%) ↑ 0.7% to 57.4%
Rep: 169,419 (18.0%) ↓ 0.5% to 18.5%

Ballots returned: 352,223 ↓ 152,284
Dem: 227,786 (64.7%) ↑ 1.5% to 66.2%
Rep: 43,641 (20.1%) ↑ 1.7% to 21.8%
Democratic Margin: 184,145 ↓ 95,487

Dem return rate: 42.7% ↓ 17.6% to 25.1%
Rep return rate: 41.8% ↓ 16.1% to 25.7%

You can literally read anything (and therefore nothing) into this. It's meaningless until we see how many people show up on Election Day.

[Duke of York]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

Sounds like decent returns so far Democrats.

Traditionally these numbers have been pretty much meaningless outside of Nevada.

To the extent these numbers mean anything, it's a slight but not significant improvement for Republicans over their banner year in 2021. It's the sort of turnout movement you'd expect in a pre-Trump off-off-year election.

For reference, from October 22, 2021:

Ballots requested: 941,020 up 22,585
Dem: 533,189 (56.7%) ↑ 0.7%
Rep: 169,419 (18.0%) ↓ 0.5%

Ballots returned: 352,223 ↓ 152,284
Dem: 227,786 (64.7%) ↑ 1.5%
Rep: 43,641 (20.1%) ↑ 1.7%
Democratic Margin: 184,145 ↓ 95,487

Dem return rate: 42.7% ↓ 17.6%
Rep return rate: 41.8% ↓ 16.1%

Does this mean they could get one or both chambers?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

Sounds like decent returns so far Democrats.

Traditionally these numbers have been pretty much meaningless outside of Nevada.

To the extent these numbers mean anything, it's a slight but not significant improvement for Republicans over their banner year in 2021. It's the sort of turnout movement you'd expect in a pre-Trump off-off-year election.

For reference, from October 22, 2021:

Ballots requested: 941,020 up 22,585
Dem: 533,189 (56.7%) ↑ 0.7%
Rep: 169,419 (18.0%) ↓ 0.5%

Ballots returned: 352,223 ↓ 152,284
Dem: 227,786 (64.7%) ↑ 1.5%
Rep: 43,641 (20.1%) ↑ 1.7%
Democratic Margin: 184,145 ↓ 95,487

Dem return rate: 42.7% ↓ 17.6%
Rep return rate: 41.8% ↓ 16.1%

Does this mean they could get one or both chambers?

No because:

You can literally read anything (and therefore nothing) into this. It's meaningless until we see how many people show up on Election Day.

and furthermore it's not taking into account where the votes are coming from. A turnout dropoff in Safe D seats or turnout surge in Safe R seats wouldn't impact the overall results.

[Senator Incitatus]

No because:

You can literally read anything (and therefore nothing) into this. It's meaningless until we see how many people show up on Election Day.

and furthermore it's not taking into account where the votes are coming from. A turnout dropoff in Safe D seats or turnout surge in Safe R seats wouldn't impact the overall results.

In fairness to Duke, I only amended my comment after the initial draft seemed too optimistic. I wouldn't read anything into this at all except that we don't know what we don't know yet.

[Roll Roons]

The Dems just didn't want to go for the North Jersey Biden/R districts. To be fair, the incumbents are very strong RINOs. Overall, I don't think more than a half-dozen assembly and two Senate seats flip and it's very possible nothing flips either way. Dems are not losing LD-16, this is not 2014 and Biden won it by 20.

I don’t know if I’d use the descriptor RINO. My district was ultra-marginal in 2020 (Trump+1) and my state Senator was Trump’s NJ campaign chair.

He's probably referring to the Republicans in LD-21, who may be the most moderate Republican state legislators in the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

I may have misinterpreted it, but the fact that I am so confused by it kind of suggests a very muddled message. It was going for some kind of shock that Democrats passed a bill like that.

It's also a really desperate ploy for a state party that's supposed to be above the culture war bulls***.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

I may have misinterpreted it, but the fact that I am so confused by it kind of suggests a very muddled message. It was going for some kind of shock that Democrats passed a bill like that.

It's also a really desperate ploy for a state party that's supposed to be above the culture war bulls***.

I'm still not really sure which part you misinterpreted as pro-trans, but this has been a pretty major issue in the campaign thus far.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

I'm going to embed this just because it's annoying when people don't, and plenty of people (like myself) won't click on naked YouTube links.

[Birdish]

Im more interested in Unaffilated voters. We didnt get exit polls from 2021, but its not hard to guess that those voters were a reason Murphy almost lost. Seems like their ballot return rate has dropped off more than Dems or Reps.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

I'm going to embed this just because it's annoying when people don't, and plenty of people (like myself) won't click on naked YouTube links.

Sorry. I have to be honest, in my infinite technology ineptitude I never really figured out how to embed.

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

I may have misinterpreted it, but the fact that I am so confused by it kind of suggests a very muddled message. It was going for some kind of shock that Democrats passed a bill like that.

It's also a really desperate ploy for a state party that's supposed to be above the culture war bulls***.

I'm still not really sure which part you misinterpreted as pro-trans, but this has been a pretty major issue in the campaign thus far.

It didn't work out so well in races across the country last year, so I'm not sure what the New Jersey GOP thinks they'll get out of it this year. They do well because they're usually strictly on message about property taxes.

[Senator Incitatus]

Im more interested in Unaffilated voters. We didnt get exit polls from 2021, but its not hard to guess that those voters were a reason Murphy almost lost. Seems like their ballot return rate has dropped off more than Dems or Reps.

As you would expect for an off-off-year.

[Roll Roons]

Head of polling at FDU:
https://twitter.com/DanCassino/status/1714012689641402424

[Senator Incitatus]

Head of polling at FDU:
[tweet]

This is one part of the reason I'm confident Republicans can flip the fourth and explains why Vin Gopal looks like he's in a cold sweat in every picture taken of him recently.