NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1722767397277327734
The guru of NJ politics thinks Rs will still hold that seat in a squeaker, but this still shouldn't have been close.

Wouldn’t overstate Wildstein’s guru status. He just has a lot of free time because no one is willing to hire him after Bridgegate. He makes straight-up factual mistakes pretty often.

Will come back with a more fulsome take on the elections in the future, but Gopal’s margin is the only real shock (unless Katz wins), and a great example of retail politics in the extreme. He ran a much better campaign and deserves the win. This will probably relaunch his statewide ambitions, which seemed to be on life support after 2021.

Otherwise, the results were a very good night for Democrats but nothing that alters the fundamental facts or surprises much. Norcross is alive for a couple more years.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

I don't see why. If anything, I'd expect them to lean Republican, since most provisional ballots are used by people who received mail-in ballots but didn't return them.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

I don't see why. If anything, I'd expect them to lean Republican, since most provisional ballots are used by people who received mail-in ballots but didn't return them.

And mail-in favors Democrats.

[danny]

Is this guy who won the Lakewood Assembly seat an actual Democrat or is he a Simcha Felder-like DINO?

Based on this interview he uses Felder as an example. When it comes to issues he talks about money for private school parents and infrastructure in Lakewood.

Also, he had campaign song that was about voting together as a community and listening to the rabbis:

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

I don't see why. If anything, I'd expect them to lean Republican, since most provisional ballots are used by people who received mail-in ballots but didn't return them.

And mail-in favors Democrats.

So you might expect provisional voters, i.e., people who were sent a mail-in but actively refused to fill it out and preferred to vote in person, to favor Republicans.

[Birdish]

Saw on Twitter AP just withdrew its call for LD-8.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1722767397277327734
The guru of NJ politics thinks Rs will still hold that seat in a squeaker, but this still shouldn't have been close.

Don't provisional ballots usually favor Democrats? Not sure why the R would be favored.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

I don't see why. If anything, I'd expect them to lean Republican, since most provisional ballots are used by people who received mail-in ballots but didn't return them.

And mail-in favors Democrats.

So you might expect provisional voters, i.e., people who were sent a mail-in but actively refused to fill it out and preferred to vote in person, to favor Republicans.

Correct. The exact person you're describing are the majority of provisional voters.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/katzs-lead-grows-to-49-votes-after-remaining-atlantic-vbms-provisional-votes-counted/

Chesterfield Democratic municipal chair Andrea Katz’s razor-thin lead for an Assembly seat in New Jersey’s 8th legislative district has grown to 49 votes after Atlantic County’s provisional ballots and remaining vote-by-mail ballots were counted. Katz now leads incumbent Assemblyman Brandon Umba (R-Medford) 27,179 to 27,130, gaining a net four votes from Atlantic’s mail ballots and 18 votes from provisionals.

There are still several hundred votes remaining to be counted, including 103 mail-in ballots and 697 provisional ballots in Burlington County – though not all of the latter will likely be counted – and an unknown number of defective mail ballots that could be cured by voters via cure letters. All three pools of votes probably lean towards Katz.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1724517623734452374

[Birdish]

These results really make one question what the heck happened in 2021.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1724517623734452374

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1724519435015225571

[Progressive Pessimist]

A week later and we're still winning!

These results really make one question what the heck happened in 2021.

I think Democrats and Murphy underestimated Ciatarelli and the GOP, they sleepwalked when they shouldn't have been and let Ciatarelli and his party define the race. Certainly the election happening during Biden's first real slump didn't help either.

[LabourJersey]

These results really make one question what the heck happened in 2021.

Backlash against pandemic restrictions, particularly school closures and pandemic-related school policies. Anger against these among suburban voters peaked in mid/late 2021 and then steadily declined.