WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[MT Treasurer]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

No, they should absolutely not triage those races given Biden's incredibly poor standing and the strong likelihood that turnout patterns will be far more favorable to them next year than they were in 2022.

They’re being handed a silver-platter Senate map and focusing only on the easiest races would be incredibly short-sighted and also did them no good in 2018 (WV/MT were very winnable and flipping even one of those would have prevented the D trifecta in 2021). If you want a working majority that lasts for more than one cycle, you can’t just concede winnable swing state Senate races, especially since Biden may very well lose all of those states.

It would also be beyond silly to triage Nevada under any circumstances.

[wbrocks67]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

No, they should absolutely not triage those races given Biden's incredibly poor standing and the strong likelihood that turnout patterns will be far more favorable to them next year than they were in 2022.

They’re being handed a silver-platter Senate map and focusing only on the easiest races would be incredibly short-sighted and also did them no good in 2018 (WV/MT were very winnable and flipping even one of those would have prevented the D trifecta in 2021). If you want a working majority that lasts for more than one cycle, you can’t just concede winnable swing state Senate races, especially since Biden may very well lose all of those states.

It would also be beyond silly to triage Nevada under any circumstances.

Huh? You think that the environment is going to be more right-leaning than R+2 it was last year?

[oldtimer]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

Going on the defensive during a presidential election in all states their Presidential candidate will probably win, is classic GOP stupidity.

[MT Treasurer]

Huh? You think that the environment is going to be more right-leaning than R+2 it was last year?

No, I said that presidential-year turnout in the Midwest in particular combined with Biden's position at the top of the ticket has the potential to put certain races on the map which we wouldn’t really be talking about with 2022-style turnout.

I’m not thrilled with GOP recruits in WI and PA, but they’re not terrible enough that Casey and Baldwin couldn’t lose under any circumstances. Do I trust Republicans to translate favorable national conditions into victory? No. Is it possible that they surprise us in a 'tough' race or two (e.g. PA/MI)? Yes.

A better point would be that Republicans (unlike Democrats) won’t have near-unlimited financial resources, but there’s a reason why Daines is betting on self-funders this cycle. We’ll see if it pays off — even if the $$$ gap is closed, it’s clear that many of those Republicans are reliant on the top of the ticket to get across the finish line, but it’s looking like 2024 might be their best bet for precisely that to happen.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

Going on the defensive during a presidential election in all states their Presidential candidate will probably win, is classic GOP stupidity.

The seats I listed are 54/55 total for the GOP. That is a significant amount already, and spending millions of dollars to lose to Baldwin by 3 and Casey by 4 isn't worth it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't a Right trending state and neither is PA that MT Treasurer predicted last time FETTERMAN losing wrong , WI isn't Iowa

[SilverStar]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

Going on the defensive during a presidential election in all states their Presidential candidate will probably win, is classic GOP stupidity.

The seats I listed are 54/55 total for the GOP. That is a significant amount already, and spending millions of dollars to lose to Baldwin by 3 and Casey by 4 isn't worth it.

Bladwin and Casey are going to win by more than that.
Casey definitely isn't going to do worse than Fetterman in a bluer year.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

Going on the defensive during a presidential election in all states their Presidential candidate will probably win, is classic GOP stupidity.

The seats I listed are 54/55 total for the GOP. That is a significant amount already, and spending millions of dollars to lose to Baldwin by 3 and Casey by 4 isn't worth it.

Bladwin and Casey are going to win by more than that.
Casey definitely isn't going to do worse than Fetterman in a bluer year.

2022 was really bad for Rs in PA, if anything, 2024 will be better for them.

[SilverStar]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

Going on the defensive during a presidential election in all states their Presidential candidate will probably win, is classic GOP stupidity.

The seats I listed are 54/55 total for the GOP. That is a significant amount already, and spending millions of dollars to lose to Baldwin by 3 and Casey by 4 isn't worth it.

Bladwin and Casey are going to win by more than that.
Casey definitely isn't going to do worse than Fetterman in a bluer year.

2022 was really bad for Rs in PA, if anything, 2024 will be better for them.

Biden will win PA by less than Fetterman but Casey is going to outperform him by 7-10.
Biden+2.5 Casey+10 is the most likely reuslts in PA next year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT TREASURE PRED FETTERMAN to lose whom is gonna listen to him but Redban

[Octowakandi]

I was under the impression Hovde wasn’t going to run and now apparently he was always going to run. Weird. Congrats on the RNC finding someone though.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1732734639729455408?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

[Roll Roons]

So that's how many races where the NRSC is backing a self-funder?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

So that's how many races where the NRSC is backing a self-funder?

3. -WI, PA, MT

It is also possible a self funder wins in Ohio but the NRSC is neutral there.

[Schiff for Senate]

Baldwin's fairly competent and I feel that the incumbency advantage is being understated here. Lean Baldwin for now, and I can definitely imagine a scenario in which Rs win WI presidentially (and the White House) even as Baldwin (narrowly) squeaks by.

[Penguincoon]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

[Xing]

Baldwin's fairly competent and I feel that the incumbency advantage is being understated here. Lean Baldwin for now, and I can definitely imagine a scenario in which Rs win WI presidentially (and the White House) even as Baldwin (narrowly) squeaks by.

I could see Baldwin winning even as Trump wins Wisconsin by 3.

[President Johnson]

So that's how many races where the NRSC is backing a self-funder?

Are they short of money? 2024 somehow again shping up as bad recruitment year for Republicans in the senate.

[Schiff for Senate]

Baldwin's fairly competent and I feel that the incumbency advantage is being understated here. Lean Baldwin for now, and I can definitely imagine a scenario in which Rs win WI presidentially (and the White House) even as Baldwin (narrowly) squeaks by.

I could see Baldwin winning even as Trump wins Wisconsin by 3.

Agreed.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Mike Gallagher or Scott Walker

[Tekken_Guy]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Mike Gallagher or Scott Walker

Gallagher could potentially beat Baldwin, but Walker absolutely would lose.

Gallagher will likely run when Johnson retires but I doubt Walker will ever run for public office for the rest of his life.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Tom Tiffany

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Tom Tiffany

Yes, I'm surprised he didn't run? Maybe he just doesn't want to run a really hard campaign.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Tom Tiffany

Yes, I'm surprised he didn't run? Maybe he just doesn't want to run a really hard campaign.

He was actively considering a run and apparently for a while was about to launch his campaign but decided against it last-minute. Ngl if he ran he would have a decent shot at beating Baldwin, the GOP's main issue here is they have no bench.

[South Dakota Democrat]

The NRSC has basically coalesced around Eric Hovde in this race, but it’s unclear whether he will face serious competition in the primary.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/scott-mayer-eric-hovde-senate-wisconsin-2024

Still think Baldwin could be upset in a "bottom falls out for Biden"-type election night, but she should be fine in a neutral year.

GOP should triage this one with Pennsylvania.
Only races worth fighting in are Texas, Florida, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, and maybe Nevada. Everything else is burning money.

Going on the defensive during a presidential election in all states their Presidential candidate will probably win, is classic GOP stupidity.

The seats I listed are 54/55 total for the GOP. That is a significant amount already, and spending millions of dollars to lose to Baldwin by 3 and Casey by 4 isn't worth it.

Bladwin and Casey are going to win by more than that.
Casey definitely isn't going to do worse than Fetterman in a bluer year.

2022 was really bad for Rs in PA, if anything, 2024 will be better for them.

Biden will win PA by less than Fetterman but Casey is going to outperform him by 7-10.
Biden+2.5 Casey+10 is the most likely reuslts in PA next year.

I was just doing a mock presidential/Senate election outcome and came up with Biden+2.0 in PA and Casey+10.5, so pretty much spot on with what I had.