Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[brucejoel99]

Ruh-roh:

https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1583181736342564864

[Oryxslayer]

Idiot or not, Boris at least had an electoral floor of support, so he would lose with dignity to Labour. But if I was in Boris's shoes I wouldn't want 1 more year of the poisoned Chalice, I would want LotO of a Party that is willing to be molded into a vehicle that wouldn't challenge you personally. That however would require waiting a bit and running away from London to some shire seat, so who knows.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's insane that Boris dead-enders are really pushing for him now. Insane that there's no effort from everyone to actually hold the ship together with a candidate every side can live with.

They won't be assured of jobs in a Mordaunt government, so an early push for Boris is simply self-preservation. This is why they backed Truss in the previous leadership election.

Boris faction and their media allies have moved very quickly and made the narrative about him. That's already a victory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's insane that Boris dead-enders are really pushing for him now. Insane that there's no effort from everyone to actually hold the ship together with a candidate every side can live with.

They won't be assured of jobs in a Mordaunt government, so an early push for Boris is simply self-preservation. This is why they backed Truss in the previous leadership election.

No one will be assured of jobs if the Tory brand is destroyed for a generation by an unending succession of patently unfit leaders.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's insane that Boris dead-enders are really pushing for him now. Insane that there's no effort from everyone to actually hold the ship together with a candidate every side can live with.

They won't be assured of jobs in a Mordaunt government, so an early push for Boris is simply self-preservation. This is why they backed Truss in the previous leadership election.

No one will be assured of jobs if the Tory brand is destroyed for a generation by an unending succession of patently unfit leaders.

You and I may think that, but Boris deadenders will believe he's a miracle campaigner who can pull it out in 2024. And taking the risk is certainly better for their careers than submitting to losing the spoils to a "unity candidate" like Mordaunt.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's insane that Boris dead-enders are really pushing for him now. Insane that there's no effort from everyone to actually hold the ship together with a candidate every side can live with.

They won't be assured of jobs in a Mordaunt government, so an early push for Boris is simply self-preservation. This is why they backed Truss in the previous leadership election.

No one will be assured of jobs if the Tory brand is destroyed for a generation by an unending succession of patently unfit leaders.

You and I may think that, but Boris deadenders will believe he's a miracle campaigner who can pull it out in 2024. And taking the risk is certainly better for their careers than submitting to losing the spoils to a "unity candidate" like Mordaunt.

Hence my point about insanity.

Also like. A unity cabinet would by definition have to also include people from the Boris wing of the party. Obviously they won't be able to run the show anymore, but if cushy jobs is all they're after, I think former BoJo types who "took one for the team" would be highly sought after to fill cabinet positions.

[TheTide]

First cabinet endorsement....





....JRM for Boris. A real surprise.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

According to my brief research, no Prime Minister has ever served in separate governments (or whatever the British call non-consecutive terms) under different monarchs. Of the nine who have served under multiple monarchs, all of them did so due to the death (or, for Stanley Baldwin, abdication) of the reigning monarch during their government.

(That is to say, no one has ever become Prime Minister under two different monarchs.)

EDIT: fun fact ruined, Robert Peel served about five months under William IV and then under Victoria.

[Cassius]

So I guess even if BoJo reaches 100 votes, Sunak would still beat him handily in a runoff among MPs?

I think that’s the prelude to one of the peak-chaos options:
> Sunak and Johnson advance to the run-off
> Sunak handily wins the indicative vote, with the support of most MPs.
> Party members ignore this, and cheerily hand the leadership back to Boris.

If that happens, expect a fresh round of party disunity. Several MPs are threatening to leave the party if this happens, so don’t be surprised if things stay absolutely febrile.

If they really were stupid enough to bring Mr Blobby back, there would almost certainly be some sort of split in the party. Most likely a splinter group rather than a full-blown split, but even that would be about the last thing they need right now. The other issue is that Johnson is still under investigation by a Commons committee that has the power to suspend him and if it does so for more than ten days he will face a recall petition in his constituency.

Quite possible that he would have difficulty cobbling together any sort of reliable Commons majority. At this stage he’s essentially the Conservative Party’s Charles Haughey (albeit one shorn of most of Haughey’s attributes). Looking forward to the leadership vote seeing a former cabinet minister wrestled to the ground by hecklers only for them to be driven off by a friend of said minister wielding a sword.

[brucejoel99]

According to my brief research, no Prime Minister has ever served in separate governments (or whatever the British call non-consecutive terms) under different monarchs.

And in a single Parliament, no less.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

According to my brief research, no Prime Minister has ever served in separate governments (or whatever the British call non-consecutive terms) under different monarchs.

And in a single Parliament, no less.

And in less than two months. It truly is serendipitous (as pointed out by the thread in IGD) that the longest-reigning monarch briefly overlapped with the shortest-serving PM.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Boris is the leader again I can imagine that they’ll still get hammered at the polls. I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up will less than 100 seats

[MABA 2020]

Dream scenario is Boris becomes leader, flood of MPs leave the party, vote no confidence in government, we all get a Labour gov for Christmas

[brucejoel99]

Dream scenario is Boris becomes leader, flood of MPs leave the party, vote no confidence in government, we all get a Labour gov for Christmas

Better yet, watch BoJo the Madman call an election himself in his leadership victory speech, no VoNC necessary.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212559473078273
Absolute scenes if this is true. “Rishi, I whipped my cabinet to support the most incompetent PM in UK history, but you have to join my unity ticket and become part of my doomed cabinet. Pretty please.”

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212559473078273
Absolute scenes if this is true. “Rishi, I whipped my cabinet to support the most incompetent PM in UK history, but you have to join my unity ticket and become part of my doomed cabinet. Pretty please.”

2024? God the UK needs some electoral reform along the lines of “if a PM resigns/dies there needs to be an election”. I can’t imagine the public accepting no election for 2 more years after this mess

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212559473078273
Absolute scenes if this is true. “Rishi, I whipped my cabinet to support the most incompetent PM in UK history, but you have to join my unity ticket and become part of my doomed cabinet. Pretty please.”

While Boris won in 2019, he now polls worse with the public than Rishi. Rishi can justifiably tell him to f**k off and that he's the best one to make 2024 a respectable defeat.

[Pericles]

It might have been too soon for Mordaunt, she's still unknown and Rishi has a much bigger profile, plus the term was so short that she doesn't get any benefit from being in cabinet-she's just one of the idiots who signed off on a disaster. I have thought she has more upside than Rishi, because she's more of a fresh start. However, Rishi is the safest choice, and I expect even now that he can keep Starmer to a minority government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Idiot or not, Boris at least had an electoral floor of support...

Doesn't have a time machine though, does he. Serious further structural damage has been done to the Conservative Party brand over the past few months that can't be easily undone. People have been hurt materially and know that other forms of pain as a result are looming.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583212559473078273
Absolute scenes if this is true. “Rishi, I whipped my cabinet to support the most incompetent PM in UK history, but you have to join my unity ticket and become part of my doomed cabinet. Pretty please.”

I won't pretend to understand the parliamentary Conservative Party, but briefings like that are not exactly a sign of confidence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

However, Rishi is the safest choice, and I expect even now that he can keep Starmer to a minority government.

Politics is a strange affair and all sorts of unpredictable things can occur, but whoever wins will have only two choices, in practice. They can continue with the policies that Hunt is pushing as Chancellor, policies that will be very unpopular, or they can risk the wrath of the markets, which will have consequences that will also be very unpopular. Alternative options would entail pursuing policies that a Conservative government would not presently contemplate and are thus not options.

[Pericles]

Idiot or not, Boris at least had an electoral floor of support, so he would lose with dignity to Labour. But if I was in Boris's shoes I wouldn't want 1 more year of the poisoned Chalice, I would want LotO of a Party that is willing to be molded into a vehicle that wouldn't challenge you personally. That however would require waiting a bit and running away from London to some shire seat, so who knows.

Not really, he was unpopular with even a majority of 2019 Conservative voters. While by-elections are not general elections, he was a vote loser in two very safe Conservative seats, as well as in the Red Wall. They should just fix the mistake they made and elect Rishi, who is unpopular but not toxically unpopular. Give him a few months to calm the economy and get through winter, and then think about a general election.

[adma]

In the now-aborted event of a Truss-led Tory electoral massacre, food for thought: her SW Norfolk constituency went Tory by only a little over 4 points in the Blair bloodbath of '97  so it's safe to imagine her endangered now...

[Pericles]

In the now-aborted event of a Truss-led Tory electoral massacre, food for thought: her SW Norfolk constituency went Tory by only a little over 4 points in the Blair bloodbath of '97  so it's safe to imagine her endangered now...

That would have really solidified the Canada 1993 parallels.

[If my soul was made of stone]

In the now-aborted event of a Truss-led Tory electoral massacre, food for thought: her SW Norfolk constituency went Tory by only a little over 4 points in the Blair bloodbath of '97  so it's safe to imagine her endangered now...

The Iceni shall rule over East Anglia once more, inshallah