Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583140060697763840?s=20&t=h9A5vwp0vF2twOWvC82-7g

How could there be a second ballot if there mathematically can't be more than 3 candidates, and 2 need to go to the membership vote?

It's the aforementioned indicative vote that's being newly introduced.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/rtenewspaulc/status/1583144490378072064
Could presumably sway some members on the margins, if not more after the recent instability.

...oh, I guess that answers it right there.

What a ridiculous idea. This might just end up blowing in the MPs' faces and put the eventual winner in a precarious spot from the outset.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lmao, it took me just 92 seconds to read further and find my answer, but that was enough for two people to reply

Love that level of knowledgeable engagement for the IE board.

[President Johnson]

So I guess even if BoJo reaches 100 votes, Sunak would still beat him handily in a runoff among MPs?

[Torrain]

So I guess even if BoJo reaches 100 votes, Sunak would still beat him handily in a runoff among MPs?

I think that’s the prelude to one of the peak-chaos options:
> Sunak and Johnson advance to the run-off
> Sunak handily wins the indicative vote, with the support of most MPs.
> Party members ignore this, and cheerily hand the leadership back to Boris.

If that happens, expect a fresh round of party disunity. Several MPs are threatening to leave the party if this happens, so don’t be surprised if things stay absolutely febrile.

[TheTide]

Spreadsheet

https://t.co/jMoPBLbeER

Boris on 33
Sunak on 26
Mordaunt on 9

A few of Boris's backers are listed anonymously ('whip' 'party board' etc). Not looking good for Mourdant - early momentum is key.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So I guess even if BoJo reaches 100 votes, Sunak would still beat him handily in a runoff among MPs?

I think that’s the prelude to one of the peak-chaos options:
> Sunak and Johnson advance to the run-off
> Sunak handily wins the indicative vote, with the support of most MPs.
> Party members ignore this, and cheerily hand the leadership back to Boris.

If that happens, expect a fresh round of party disunity. Several MPs are threatening to leave the party if this happens, so don’t be surprised if things stay absolutely febrile.

If they really were stupid enough to bring Mr Blobby back, there would almost certainly be some sort of split in the party. Most likely a splinter group rather than a full-blown split, but even that would be about the last thing they need right now. The other issue is that Johnson is still under investigation by a Commons committee that has the power to suspend him and if it does so for more than ten days he will face a recall petition in his constituency.

[Torrain]

Spreadsheet

https://t.co/jMoPBLbeER

Boris on 33
Sunak on 26
Mourdant on 9

A few of Boris's backers are listed anonymously ('whip' 'party board' etc). Not looking good for Mourdant - early momentum is key.

Given the spreadsheet is run by Guido Faukes, I’d be a little wary of the numbers here, especially the anonymous backings.

That being said, it’s clear that the 60 ride-or-die Boris supporters are racing out the gates to support him, and try to give the impression of momentum. Will be interested to see how many Sunak is holding in reserve, and whether Mordaunt actually has some big beasts ready to back her, or whether it’s clear that her star has faded, and she’s forced to take the number 2 slot on someone else’s ticket.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anonymous pledges are worth about as much as Conservative manifesto promises.

[YL]

So I guess even if BoJo reaches 100 votes, Sunak would still beat him handily in a runoff among MPs?

I think that’s the prelude to one of the peak-chaos options:
> Sunak and Johnson advance to the run-off
> Sunak handily wins the indicative vote, with the support of most MPs.
> Party members ignore this, and cheerily hand the leadership back to Boris.

If that happens, expect a fresh round of party disunity. Several MPs are threatening to leave the party if this happens, so don’t be surprised if things stay absolutely febrile.

Then the MPs throw him out again, triggering a new leadership election which ends in a spectacular comeback by Liz Truss...

[Sestak]

If there are more than two non-Sunak candidates, does there become a realistic chance of them all splitting and ending up below 100?

[Conservatopia]

If there are more than two non-Sunak candidates, does there become a realistic chance of them all splitting and ending up below 100?

If nobody reaches 100 the whole fabric of British politics resets and Alfred the Great becomes Prime Minister.

[Sestak]

Lmao @ the spreadsheet posted earlier listing Boris endorsements:


28   Kelly Tolhurst                                                                           
29   Sheryll Murray                                                                        
30   Richard Drax                                                                           
31   A Whip                                                                           
32   Philip Hollobone                                                                           
33   Party board                                                                           
34   A Whip                                                                           
35   A Whip                                                                           
36   A Whip                                                                           
37   CCHQ Chair

[TheTide]

Lmao @ the spreadsheet posted earlier listing Boris endorsements:


28 Kelly Tolhurst
29 Sheryll Murray
30 Richard Drax
31 A Whip
32 Philip Hollobone
33 Party board
34 A Whip
35 A Whip
36 A Whip
37 CCHQ Chair

They are probably trying to game it for him a bit, yes. Presumably CCHQ Chair is different from Party Chair (which would be Jake Berry).

[Torrain]

Just for a bit of contrast, the Telegraph has a different set of numbers that, surprise surprise, have Sunak and Mordaunt doing a bit better than in Guido. I know - the Telegraph also have their problems. But, while they may often be client journalists, they do know their clients very well.
https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1583165680899063808

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Sunak starts as the prohibitive favourite IMO. Biggest base in the parliamentary party, won 42% of the membership a couple of months ago and his pitch of stability and sound money will play much better second time around. Don't really see how he loses, unless every other faction in the party unites around Mordaunt on a Stop Rishi bandwagon. But Mordaunt is untested and a major gamble for a party in such turmoil ATM.

I don't think Boris will want to come back and his support in the parliamentary party will be weak. But who knows.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is all very silly. All this drama about Sunak this, Boris that, when they're both going to get John Major'd in the next election. We all know that when an English-speaking conservative party prematurely loses its leader, there's one tried and tested method of resurrecting them:

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583171589985562626?s=20&t=znFHRnAKzsnj...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be very wary of rumours like that in any directly. Firstly, because none of these people are honest. And secondly because, if there's one thing we've learned over this year, no one in the parliamentary Conservative Party knows how to count.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I can’t wait to watch Boris Johnson f****ing kill the Conservative party.

If Boris does actually become leader does the conservatives break in to? If so where do they go?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583171589985562626

Insert paddyashdowneatmyhatquip.gif here

[President Johnson]

This almost makes you think Johnson is a Labor plant. I'm not sure he actually runs. Could just be white noise.

[Torrain]

Telegraph reports that, unsurprisingly, Rees-Mogg is key to the Johnson effort. Given he’s become such a divisive figure (see his role in the MP intimidation last night, and his central role in the fracking policy writ large), I wonder whether his role as chief Boris whip will scare floating MPs away.

Sourced to the Telegraph live blog: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/

[TheTide]

Christopher Hope (who is known to be quite partial to Johnson) saying that he will only stand if he can be assured of reaching the 100.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's insane that Boris dead-enders are really pushing for him now. Insane that there's no effort from everyone to actually hold the ship together with a candidate every side can live with. For all the talk of fratricidal factionalism inside Labour, it's not like Corbynites are still pushing for their guy to come back right now. Hell, this would be like if RLB won the leadership election in 2019, proceeded to be a miserable failure in every conceivable way and give the Tories a 30+ points lead, and then after she resigned the Labour left decided it wanted Corbyn back. Utter madness.