Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[Blair]

Reports the pudding has been phoning MPs from his Caribbean holiday to ask MPs to support him.

The House was sitting this week and he is ofc still an MP.

[Mike88]

New polling:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1583450172608376832

Also, the Sun's tracker has Rishi clearly ahead:

72 Rishi Sunak
45 Boris Johnson
18 Penny Mordaunt

[Torrain]

Javid endorsing Sunak

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1583487778003636225

[You are responsible]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1583460514113679360

[Torrain]

Times Political Editor with the public endorsement total at 17.00:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1583487235864731649

[You are responsible]

Times Political Editor with the public endorsement total at 17.00:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1583487235864731649

BBC uses 72 - 41 - 17, which is pretty similar.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-63343308

[Vosem]

One really wonders how things might have gone if COVID had actually offed Boris back in the first wave, when he was near-death, and "deputy prime minister" Raab had succeeded him in an orderly fashion.

[CumbrianLefty]

Morduant clearly struggling - blew her big chance last time round it would seem.

[🙏]

One really wonders how things might have gone if COVID had actually offed Boris back in the first wave, when he was near-death, and "deputy prime minister" Raab had succeeded him in an orderly fashion.

Kind of tuned out of UK politics for like a year and a half post-2019 GE - What happened to Raab, exactly? I would’ve assumed he’d have had the stature to be an obvious leadership choice. (Also was Patel’s standing killed by the bullying report?)

[Torrain]

One really wonders how things might have gone if COVID had actually offed Boris back in the first wave, when he was near-death, and "deputy prime minister" Raab had succeeded him in an orderly fashion.

Kind of tuned out of UK politics for like a year and a half post-2019 GE - What happened to Raab, exactly? I would’ve assumed he’d have had the stature to be an obvious leadership choice. (Also was Patel’s standing killed by the bullying report?)

Raab had a very bad 18 months. He deputised for Johnson when he got COVID, and came across as stiff and a bit panicked. He then had to resign as Foreign Secretary when he didn’t return to the country to manage our disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

He was demoted to Justice Secretary (while gaining the meaningless title of Deputy PM), and ended up endorsing Rishi Sunak in the last leadership election, burning his last bridge with the Truss faction that won power.

His only road back to relevance is if Sunak wins, and even then, he’ll probably only get a mid-tier cabinet post.

[You are responsible]

The BBC tracker is now at:

Rishi Sunak - 81 MPs
Boris Johnson - 41 MPs
Penny Mordaunt - 19 MPs

[Torrain]

Grandee intervention:
https://mobile.twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1583500400488898561
It’s not surprising, the grandees pretty much all despise Johnson, but still pretty strong language for Hague, who’s typically quite measured.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more a Boris return would be suicidal for the Conservative Party. They would still lose badly in the local elections in May, face more humiliating by-election losses, and facing electoral oblivion there would likely be a third leadership challenge by the majority of the Tory parliamentary party who oppose him. The infighting could legitimately destroy the party.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Grandee intervention:
https://mobile.twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/1583500400488898561
It’s not surprising, the grandees pretty much all despise Johnson, but still pretty strong language for Hague, who’s typically quite measured.

And this even further complicates things if Boris still returns. What is said cannot be unsaid.

[..]

According to several sources now, apparently Boris has told James Duddridge that he is IN:
https://twitter.com/BlewettSam/status/1583507397548863488?s=20&t=KitrXEGy7Io...

[Coldstream]

I still don’t think it will be Johnson, but if it is, I think there’s a distinct possibility you’ll see the disintegration of the Tory party we almost got in 2019. I think you’ll see some of the Centrist one nation types quit/join the Lib Dems (if they’ll even have them) - and it’s not impossible you’d see some of the right quit to join up with Reform UK. People like Bridgen detest Johnson and may conclude the party is unsalvageable & that they are likely going to be wiped out anyway.

Still all unlikely, but it becomes possible under him.

[mileslunn]

If Sunak becomes leader, anyone think there is a possibility party can recover enough to win next election or is party too badly damaged at this point?

[YL]

I still don’t think it will be Johnson, but if it is, I think there’s a distinct possibility you’ll see the disintegration of the Tory party we almost got in 2019. I think you’ll see some of the Centrist one nation types quit/join the Lib Dems (if they’ll even have them) - and it’s not impossible you’d see some of the right quit to join up with Reform UK. People like Bridgen detest Johnson and may conclude the party is unsalvageable & that they are likely going to be wiped out anyway.

Still all unlikely, but it becomes possible under him.

That something like that might happen is about the only thing that him coming back has going for it.

[Conservatopia]

If Sunak becomes leader, anyone think there is a possibility party can recover enough to win next election or is party too badly damaged at this point?

If the last few years have taught us something it's that anything is possible.

[brucejoel99]

brucejoel99 is calling for a total & complete shutdown of Westminster democracy until His Majesty The King can figure out what the hell is going on:

https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583514599684395008https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583517576067395584

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

The first decade of the 20th century called, it wants its dysfunctional and infighting-ridden Tory party back.

[Blair]

The problem with Boris is that he has a very strong cult following in sections of the party and thus there is no normalcy to any of this. This trickles through to the public which allows MPs to parrot ‘well all my constituents in the dog and duck love him’.

I have yet to see a convicting argument about how he will approach the economic crisis- the fact that he was presumed finished since May meant that no-one really bothered to ask the question.

He is not on top of the details and he infamously falls out with most people who have to say no to him politically (e.g his last two chancellors)

[MABA 2020]

So yesterday I joked about Boris becoming PM again and that leading to a split in the party that ultimately leads to a Labour government by Christmas, but... guys I was only joking I didn't think you were actually gonna do it!

[Pericles]

How many MPs does Rishi need to keep everyone else from 100? Optimistically, let's say the opposition is split, with Boris at about 80-90 and Mordaunt at about 60. Does he need someone else to stand on the right to split votes from Boris? Is he just trying to get a consensus mandate from MPs, like over 200? How does this work?

[You are responsible]

So yesterday I joked about Boris becoming PM again and that leading to a split in the party that ultimately leads to a Labour government by Christmas, but... guys I was only joking I didn't think you were actually gonna do it!

Murphy's law.