Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[Torrain]

Interesting to see the Times and Telegraph basically beg the party not to pick Johnson, given his tenure (and close relations) with both publications (the Telegraph in particular). Never thought I’d see the day that a Telegraph front page told us “now is not the time for Boris”.

https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Would the times endorse Labour? They did so in 2001 iirc

They’re calling for an immediate general election, which is a defacto Labour endorsement. Whether that’ll still be the case when Parliament eventually dissolved is unclear…

It seems that kind of stance basically is "Either someone besides Boris or there is a general election". If I'm reading that right...

I haven’t got the editorial to hand, but it’s gist was “this is going to be a political nightmare and Truss is not competent enough to solve matters. Give it to Sunak, then call a general election as soon as things have stabilised. It’ll be a loss, but at least then the party will have recovered, and can rebuild in opposition, rather than face total wipeout.”

[JimJamUK]

Would the times endorse Labour? They did so in 2001 iirc

Since around 2010 the British press have been more ideologically right wing/partisan Conservative than they were in the past. The Times might endorse Labour in the current climate, but in an election close enough for things like that to matter they probably wouldn’t.

Quick guide for non-British forum members on the partisan allegiance of the British press:
The Mirror - Partisan Labour.
The Guardian - Labour, but more than anything ‘not Conservative’ progressive types.
The Financial Times - Fairly liberal, will probably endorse Labour especially against a Boris/Truss type PM.
The Times - Might endorse Labour if things don’t significantly change, essentially the last ‘respectable’ centre-right paper left.
The Sun - Previously backed Blair, but has been pretty avowedly Conservative since.
Daily Express - Backed Blair in 2001, but very much the pensioner Pravda that would only abandon the Conservatives for a credible further right option these days.
Daily Mail - Obviously Conservative, would happily endorse them even in a snap election right now.
Daily Telegraph - See above.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Would the times endorse Labour? They did so in 2001 iirc

Since around 2010 the British press have been more ideologically right wing/partisan Conservative than they were in the past. The Times might endorse Labour in the current climate, but in an election close enough for things like that to matter they probably wouldn’t.

Quick guide for non-British forum members on the partisan allegiance of the British press:
The Mirror - Partisan Labour.
The Guardian - Labour, but more than anything ‘not Conservative’ progressive types.
The Financial Times - Fairly liberal, will probably endorse Labour especially against a Boris/Truss type PM.
The Times - Might endorse Labour if things don’t significantly change, essentially the last ‘respectable’ centre-right paper left.
The Sun - Previously backed Blair, but has been pretty avowedly Conservative since.
Daily Express - Backed Blair in 2001, but very much the pensioner Pravda that would only abandon the Conservatives for a credible further right option these days.
Daily Mail - Obviously Conservative, would happily endorse them even in a snap election right now.
Daily Telegraph - See above.

Reminded me of this great clip.

[TheTide]

Mordaunt is still on 25 even on Guido Fawkes' count (which puts anonymous backers in each candidate's pile). Unless she has dozens of backers waiting to come out of the woodwork I don't see a path forward for her as far as winning the contest goes.

Even though Sunak has already reached the threshold it will still be interesting to see how far his numbers continue to grow. He's about 70 away from a majority of MPs, and if he continues to get 50-60% of nominations he'll comfortably get there. That would increase pressure for a coronation.

[CumbrianLefty]

Would the times endorse Labour? They did so in 2001 iirc

Since around 2010 the British press have been more ideologically right wing/partisan Conservative than they were in the past. The Times might endorse Labour in the current climate, but in an election close enough for things like that to matter they probably wouldn’t.

Quick guide for non-British forum members on the partisan allegiance of the British press:
The Mirror - Partisan Labour.
The Guardian - Labour, but more than anything ‘not Conservative’ progressive types.
The Financial Times - Fairly liberal, will probably endorse Labour especially against a Boris/Truss type PM.
The Times - Might endorse Labour if things don’t significantly change, essentially the last ‘respectable’ centre-right paper left.
The Sun - Previously backed Blair, but has been pretty avowedly Conservative since.
Daily Express - Backed Blair in 2001, but very much the pensioner Pravda that would only abandon the Conservatives for a credible further right option these days.
Daily Mail - Obviously Conservative, would happily endorse them even in a snap election right now.
Daily Telegraph - See above.

I can certainly see the Sun not backing the Tories next time, even if a Labour endorsement a la 1997 may be a bridge too far. There's also the Independent if you count the now only online operation - it is certainly not going to back the Tories (doing so in 2015 effectively killed off the paper version)

[TheTide]

The final tallies if the nominations continue to break as they are at present.

[RGM2609]

It seems like the bulk of people who have not endorsed yet supported either Truss or Badenoch last time. Probably bodes well for Johnson.

[Cassius]

I'd be interested to hear what Cassius has to say on this but I think I've reached the point where I don't care who wins the leadership of my party.

I won't support Boris, who I backed in the 2019 race, because he caused this mess in the first place and won't be able to staff a government.

I don't like Rishi, he's a posh boy and he won't appeal to the 2019 coalition at all.

I won't support Mordaunt because whilst she might be the best choice electorally, she's too far to my left.

I'd rather just headbang on my own in my little niche of the hard right thanks very much.

Also, I'm actually kind of getting tempted by the Reform Party emails inviting candidates to stand. It would be a waste of time though, they're going nowhere.

I’ll be supporting Sunak again, for pretty much the same reasons as in the Summer, but now with the added bonus that he’s conducted himself well in the last couple of months and can be seen to have been ‘right’ (sort of) about Truss’ platform.

On the other hand it is tempting to support Johnson purely for reasons of banter (like Dougal pressing the red button in that episode of Father Ted on the plane) and because Johnson returning after two months would make fantastic historical copy. But in the real world, he’s unpopular, he’s useless and he has the parliamentary investigation hanging over his head like the sword of Damocles, so he’s a non-starter.

Mordaunt is, to my mind, a waste of space; nothing more than the latest vacuous Tory woman to be elevated to papabile status on the grounds of being able to put together a coherent sentence and being a… woman (see in the past Truss, Liz; Rudd, Amber; Leadsom, Andrea). Sure, she might be more ‘voter friendly’ than Sunak, but according to most accounts of her performance as a minister she’s also useless, which probably isn’t what we need at this point.

Of course, the party is still pretty f***** anyway. If Johnson wins, there’s a good chance that the party will simply implode in the next few months (and he’s so electorally toxic and so bad at governing that there’s no chance he’ll turn the polls around). But even if Sunak wins (far from a done deal) we’re still in the midst of the worst economic crisis in forty years (I’d say this will be worse than 2008) and Sunak will have to deal with that, plus Johnson and his acolytes trying to destroy the party anyway because the ‘boss’ didn’t get his birthright back.

The best that can be hoped for is continuing Britain’s managed decline in as painless a way as possible (although there is going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people in the next couple of years at least). Labour aren’t going to turn this around either (indeed, despite their calls for an election, I think they’re probably rather glad they won’t have to take over for another couple of years) because we’re in an era of secular stagnation and at the mercy of the markets (as shown by the events of the last two months) which means little money for public services and government investment. Sunak is simply the best of the available candidates to preside over this stagnation and decline.

[Torrain]

Even though Sunak has already reached the threshold it will still be interesting to see how far his numbers continue to grow. He's about 70 away from a majority of MPs, and if he continues to get 50-60% of nominations he'll comfortably get there. That would increase pressure for a coronation.

This is what I’m most interested in. Sunak was pretty much guaranteed a slot in the final two as soon as Truss resigned. But if he’s going to claim the mandate for the party to just coronate him, he’ll need a majority.

He’s picked off some high-profile Mordaunt backers from the last contest (David Davis and Caroline Nokes), and a couple of Truss backers too (Chris Philp etc), so he’s definitely favoured to beat his total in the last contest. I think 140-50 shouldn’t be too hard - but it’s that last 30-40 MPs where the problems will lie.

[Blair]

Would the times endorse Labour? They did so in 2001 iirc

Since around 2010 the British press have been more ideologically right wing/partisan Conservative than they were in the past. The Times might endorse Labour in the current climate, but in an election close enough for things like that to matter they probably wouldn’t.

Quick guide for non-British forum members on the partisan allegiance of the British press:
The Mirror - Partisan Labour.
The Guardian - Labour, but more than anything ‘not Conservative’ progressive types.
The Financial Times - Fairly liberal, will probably endorse Labour especially against a Boris/Truss type PM.
The Times - Might endorse Labour if things don’t significantly change, essentially the last ‘respectable’ centre-right paper left.
The Sun - Previously backed Blair, but has been pretty avowedly Conservative since.
Daily Express - Backed Blair in 2001, but very much the pensioner Pravda that would only abandon the Conservatives for a credible further right option these days.
Daily Mail - Obviously Conservative, would happily endorse them even in a snap election right now.
Daily Telegraph - See above.

There is also the matter that Keir Starmer was the Director of Public Prosecutions when the phone hacking trials happened.

[Blair]

If I was a Conservative I would also be very worried how many activists and voters are going full conspiracy theory around the G***t R***t and other various covid era stuff.

In such a small party you really have to worry- it only took a small number in Labour and there seems to be very little appetite to look into this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I was a Conservative I would also be very worried how many activists and voters are going full conspiracy theory around the G***t R***t and other various covid era stuff.

In such a small party you really have to worry- it only took a small number in Labour and there seems to be very little appetite to look into this.

Some of this stuff is... er... oh dear, I think I've seen this film before...

[TheTide]

There's actually a lot of parallels between this process and UKIP in 2016. The lobby fiasco being the equivalent to the punch up which put Steven Woolfe in hospital.

[Torrain]

Lord Frost, longtime Boris ally, endorses Sunak:
https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1583775981114130433
No vote in the ballot, but a gamble from a man who was elevated to the peerage, and given his ministerial role by Johnson. I don't quite get why those in Conservative circles hold him in such high regard, but this is an intervention that's probably more important that Howard and Hague put together.

[TheTide]

Lord Frost, longtime Boris ally, endorses Sunak:
https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1583775981114130433
No vote in the ballot, but a serious intervention from a man who was elevated to the peerage, and given his ministerial role by Johnson. I don't quite get why those in Conservative circles hold him in such high regard, but this is an intervention that's probably more important that Howard and Hague put together.

It seems Lord Frost has gone cold on Boris.

(Sorry)

[Torrain]

Lord Frost, longtime Boris ally, endorses Sunak:
https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1583775981114130433
No vote in the ballot, but a serious intervention from a man who was elevated to the peerage, and given his ministerial role by Johnson. I don't quite get why those in Conservative circles hold him in such high regard, but this is an intervention that's probably more important that Howard and Hague put together.

It seems Lord Frost has gone cold on Boris.

(Sorry)

...
*sigh*
*recommends*

[Torrain]

Also - Johnson's Chief of Staff is Ready4Rishi:
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1583780318108332032

[Cassius]

Also - Johnson's Chief of Staff is Ready4Rishi:
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1583780318108332032

To be fair, Barclay is in effect the party’s ur-bureaucrat, having been Brexit Secretary under both May and Johnson and he was also slated to take over as Sunak’s Chancellor in the Summer, having worked well with him as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

[Torrain]

Also - Johnson's Chief of Staff is Ready4Rishi:
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1583780318108332032

To be fair, Barclay is in effect the party’s ur-bureaucrat, having been Brexit Secretary under both May and Johnson and he was also slated to take over as Sunak’s Chancellor in the Summer, having worked well with him as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

Aye, and for full disclosure, I've double-checked, and Barclay also endorsed Sunak in the summer leadership contest, so he's got form.

Still think that it's noteworthy though, given he remained in the Johnson caretaker administration, and resisted calls to resign throughout the 48 hours of resignation chaos, showing a degree of loyalty to Johnson comparable to his inner circle.

[You are responsible]

BBC tally now at:

Sunak - 105

Johnson - 47

Mordaunt - 21

[C r a b c a k e]

Fwiw Lachlan, the most right-wing of the Roy siblings Murdoch siblings, now has the strongest grip over News Corp editorial line, given that James and Elizabeth are on the outs with daddy. And there's evidence that the old man himself has shifted right in recent years, so he may be less tempted to give out his endorsement (and starmer himself is identified with Leveson, which creates more problems).

[Conservatopia]

Frost endorsing Sunak is a big deal, no doubt about it. It will give Sunak some much needed credibility on the right of the party. Whilst personally I find Frost a windbag, he is held in very high regard by many on the right. That being said many of his biggest fans probably aren't members of the party.

This has actually got me thinking: what's Farage saying these days? He was fairly supportive of Truss over the summer.

[TheTide]

Chris Grayling, a former cabinet minister who'd fit well into the current cabinet, also backs Sunak. As does the Father of the House Peter Bottomley and David Mundell (former Scottish Secretary).

This is feeling a bit Michael Howard 2003.

[Torrain]

This has actually got me thinking: what's Farage saying these days? He was fairly supportive of Truss over the summer.

He's threatening to start a new party again, and currently ducking criticism for calling Grant Shapps a globalist. He was highly critical of Truss at the end.

[Cassius]

Frost endorsing Sunak is a big deal, no doubt about it. It will give Sunak some much needed credibility on the right of the party. Whilst personally I find Frost a windbag, he is held in very high regard by many on the right. That being said many of his biggest fans probably aren't members of the party.

This has actually got me thinking: what's Farage saying these days? He was fairly supportive of Truss over the summer.

He is not a happy bunny.