OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[windjammer]

Will there be a New redistricting ballot initiative in Ohio?

[Oryxslayer]

Will there be a New redistricting ballot initiative in Ohio?

We have to wait and see what happens to the current maps, but very likely it will be the next thing in the pipe behind the abortion referendum. So yes, it would hypothetically be on the November 2024 ballot as well.

[windjammer]

If I understand correctly,
As the secretary of state, Larose is a huge supporter of this initiative to raise the threehold to pass ballot measures.

Given this is going to go down in flames, I suppose he's going to get hurt by this right ?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If I understand correctly,
As the secretary of state, Larose is a huge supporter of this initiative to raise the threehold to pass ballot measures.

Given this is going to go down in flames, I suppose he's going to get hurt by this right ?

Eh, I think most Ohio republicans back it as a not so clandestine attempt to allow the state legislature to ban all abortions

[Oryxslayer]

If I understand correctly,
As the secretary of state, Larose is a huge supporter of this initiative to raise the threehold to pass ballot measures.

Given this is going to go down in flames, I suppose he's going to get hurt by this right ?

In one month nobody will remember this boring technical question which loses by a landslide. More interesting is the abortion referendum,  which if it passes by a slightly smaller but similar landslide, is a no-win situation for a prominent statewide actor like LaRose. Publicly support it and tie your campaigns together - you look weak and ineffectual when it loses. Don't bother and focus on your campaign - you get criticized for ignoring it by the pro-life groups, especially as the SOS who sees these things get approved for ballot access. And that's before we talk about how his candidacy is probably the one who most needs both GOP voters who'll vote Yes and GOP voters who'll vote No in November.

[MATTROSE94]

Any reason to think Moreno's support is durable? He didn't do that well in 2022 and will face a united front of elected officials. IMO he's only the frontrunner now since no one else was running.

Yes:

1) He is the only Trumpist in the race and only dropped out last time at Trump’s request as a show of loyalty.  

2) Dolan is not some random also-ran.  He is a strong candidate with a real base of support who is likely to easily get double-digit support and is essentially guaranteed to be well-funded throughout the primary campaign.  He won’t come close to winning, but he basically tied for second last time running as the closest thing anti-Trump candidate in an Ohio statewide Republican primary.  He might very well have eeked out a win had Trump not made an endorsement.  

Almost literally 100% of his votes would otherwise go to LaRose.  If he only takes ~15% (which seems pretty likely although his range is probably 10%-25% with 15% - 20% being by far the most likely outcome), that could easily give Moreno the win.  Moreno has his base all to himself while LaRose has to compete with Dolan for the same voters without offending the Trump crowd anymore than he already has (they’re very suspicious of LaRose, but not extremely hostile the way they are towards Dolan).  Thus, there is a very real possibility of Dolan spoiling the primary and letting Moreno win with a plurality.

3) Trump will not endorse LaRose or Dolan.  50-50 whether he sits it out while implicitly making it clear he wants Moreno or actually endorses Moreno.  If Trump formally endorses Moreno, then that’s the ballgame; LaRose is toast and there will be nothing he can do about it.

How do you feel about the general election if it's Brown vs. Moreno?

I would say that Bernie Moreno would be a stronger candidate than Frank LaRose or Matt Dolan, as Bernie Moreno is 100% MAGA in his views and I doubt that there would be many Trump-Brown voters in such a scenario. I would say that Bernie Moreno would defeat Sherrod Brown by about the same margin JD Vance won by when all is said and done.

Frank LaRose and Matt Dolan are more like John Kasich style Republicans, so I don’t think they will get enough support from Trump voters, so Sherrod Brown would likely win by a Robert Taft 1944 style margin if either one is the Republican nominee.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1683509004901687297

[2016]

Clearly LaRose endorsing Trump is all about getting his Endorsement.

LaRose, of the 3 Republican Candidates running to challenge Brown, is the most electable.

And he is going to beat Brown if he is the Republican Senate Nominee.

[GALeftist]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

[2016]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

All what Republicans need to do next year is win West Virginia & Ohio Senate Races and Bidens Agenda is crippled even if he wins Re-Election and Democrats win the House back.

AND that is IMO very doable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly LaRose endorsing Trump is all about getting his Endorsement.

LaRose, of the 3 Republican Candidates running to challenge Brown, is the most electable.

And he is going to beat Brown if he is the Republican Senate Nominee.

.

Rs underpoll when Laxalt,  Johnson and DeWine aren't on the ballot we were winning OH S when DeWine was up 6 on Whaley he won by 20 like Rubio and DeSantis after IAN and the bump from IAN is over they are still recovering from IAN bur poor people didn't lose Yachts that's why Scott isn't 20 pts ahead he is only up 4 in red state FL we don't need FL but it's the first swing state up

It's a yr and a half and DeWine isn't on the ballot every Edays Brown has won with or without DeWine because his Approvals are 50% like Tester guess what Scott and Cruz are 45 like Vance and Johnson

Baldwin is gonna beat Clarke because Johnson isn't on the ballot that's why Janet Protasisaweicwz won

Rosen is up by 5 because Laxalt isnt on the ballot Laxalt dad was instrumental in R politics in NV that's why Laxalt does well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am just saying this isn't 2004 we exceeded with OH, FL, TX, NC when AZ, CO, NV and GA and VA turned blue in 2006 Ds can complete in red states too it's not over till we vote Rs are still the favs in red not blue but it's voting they counts not just poll

If  Approvals mattered Rs would have won 40H Districts and 53 S seats because Obama had 44% Approvals in 2014  and we lost labdslide

Just like in the TX thread  if ALLRED was running against Abbott he would lose 55/45 and if Ds were running against Rubio instead of Scott we would lose by 10 but we are running against Cruz and Scott whom barely won in 2018

ALLRED isn't Beto he doesn't have a stuttering problem and he is half white like Obama and HARRIS

[Tekken_Guy]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

[GALeftist]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

Yeah, to be clear I don't think LaRose is getting the Trump endorsement. However, I do think that this is probably the most effective way to keep Trump from endorsing anyone at all. We'll see if it works.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

Yeah, to be clear I don't think LaRose is getting the Trump endorsement. However, I do think that this is probably the most effective way to keep Trump from endorsing anyone at all. We'll see if it works.

Honestly if that works then Rosendale and Mooney should rush to endorse Trump to stave off Sheehy and Justice endorsements.

[2016]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

Yeah, to be clear I don't think LaRose is getting the Trump endorsement. However, I do think that this is probably the most effective way to keep Trump from endorsing anyone at all. We'll see if it works.

Trump endorses Candidates based on POLLING and Polling alone. Remember the Alabama Republican Senate Primary where Trump first endorsed Mo Brooks. Once Brooks started to tank Trump rescinded his Endorsement and then in the Runoff when it became apparent that Katie Britt was going to crush Brooks, Trump endorsed Britt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again this isn't 2004 this 2024 and we have way more blks and Arabs and White female voting D than 2004 yeah Ryan lost but he wasn't the inc Rs didn't defeat a single D Senate inc in 20/22, so if I was Rs I would be mindful of that they held onto their open seats that's why Brown and Tester have a slim advantage but so do Rs in red states that's why it's called split voting Rs dominate red state legislature but they do send Ds to G and Sen, Rs dominate KY state Legislature and Beshear is winning 52/42 and Wilson is headed for a runoff and Presley is down by 5


Likewise in NC Cooper won in 20 by 4 and Rs in NC have a 2/3 rds majority Brown, Johnson and Laxalt always overperformrned that's why Rs lost WI judge by 11 because Rs underpoll without JOHNSON

[Greedo punched first]

LaRose loses even if he's endorsed by Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all know this and Tester is gonna win but it's about blocking Biden agenda and the Filibuster, but Vance won his races with the help of DeWine he won by 25 and Vance won by 5 DeWine isnt on the ballot this time, tough luck for Rs

Rs got crushed in WI judge and that's the swing state because Johnson wasn't on the ballot in May of 23 tough luck, that's why Baldwin whom beat Tommy Thompson is gonna beat Clarke but she won't beat him in a landslide it's gonna be 51/47 like Slotkin over Mejer Casey is gonna win by 9

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/franklarose/status/1683509104118046720?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

Incoming Trump endorsement of Moreno in 3… 2.. 1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won't be Prez even if he win OH because Baldwin, Slotkin and Casey are gonna win and Kaine is gonna win VA that's 270

It's a 51/47 Eday im NV, AZ, PA, MI, WI and VA anyways but Casey is gonna win by 10

DeWine isn't on the ballot and neither is Johnson and Laxalt that's why we won WI by double digits in April with Janet Protasisaweicwz Rs always underpoll in WI but Baldwin has a tougher race than Slotkin and Casey and so does Brown but will still win, Clarke won't get closer than Michaels did with EVERS 51/47

[Tekken_Guy]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

[S019]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

[windjammer]

Larose seems to be a super bland Guy.


I think it's more likely the pubs win MT than him becomingthe next oh senator

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

I dont think Trump thinks.Moreno will lose. I mean Daines (who is the main one trying to get Trump to not endorse "unelectable" candidates) said he thinks Moreno can win.
Also Vance, Patel, Grenell and other people close to Trump have started coalescing around Moreno.