OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[MT Treasurer]

This sort of flew under the radar but is obviously not unexpected (and Brown has indicated before that he’d run again in 2024).  

While this year’s election is not yet over, several Ohio Republicans already have begun positioning themselves to potentially challenge Brown in 2024.

That includes Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for reelection this year after passing on the senate race, and state Sen. Matt Dolan, who placed a surprisingly high third in the contentious Republican Senate primary election in May, and whose state senate district in the Cleveland suburbs has become increasingly Democratic in recent years.

https://www.limaohio.com/news/2022/09/17/sen-sherrod-brown-says-hes-running-for-reelection-in-2024/

[S019]

One thing is for sure, Republicans won't be nominating JD Vance again. I also imagine after the clown show that was the Mandel v Vance primary, Republicans will take a much more serious approach to campaigning and not try to spend the entire primary being a caricature of a populist LARPer.

[TML]

One thing is for sure, Republicans won't be nominating JD Vance again. I also imagine after the clown show that was the Mandel v Vance primary, Republicans will take a much more serious approach to campaigning and not try to spend the entire primary being a caricature of a populist LARPer.

But if Trump’s influence on the Republican Party is still as strong then as it is now, the 2024 nominee could very well be another MAGA-type candidate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

DeWine revenge tour?

[SnowLabrador]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

[Chip of the Chop]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

[SnowLabrador]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Majewski?

[Holmes]

DeWine revenge tour?

You think a 77 year old will try to run for a freshman term in the Senate in the middle of his second term as Governor?

[prag_prog]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

I also expect Klobuchar to run in MN

[Chip of the Chop]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

I also expect Klobuchar to run in MN

I only did what is confirmed so far.

I do expect Klobuchar to run again and win again. I also think she runs for President again in 2028.

[prag_prog]

Great news. I am still very pessimistic of Brown's chances in 2024 but I think inorder for Brown to have a chance to win, national environment needs to be D+4 or better. In 2012, he won by 6 pts when national environment was D+4. In 2018, he won by 6 pts against an underfunded challenger when national environment was D+8. Assuming ticket splitting will reduce in 2024 when compared to 2018 due to it being a presidential year and also considering possibility of Ohio shifting further right, I think national environment has to be atleast D+4 or better for Brown to have a chance. Can't expect GOP to nominate poor candidates like Vance all the time..maybe they will learn a lesson and try to get a stronger challenger for Brown in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan is winning so it's likely that Brown gets reelected

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Disagree, Brown has reliably won in various environments and has an extremely strong brand for the state. The worst I’d rate it is tilt R.


That saying this is still two years out with absolutely no idea what the environment will be or who Brown will face so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador is a Doomer

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race. 

[JMT]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Here’s my take on some of these:

Arizona: I honestly think Sinema will retire. She’s made so many enemies, she’ll probably see the writing on the wall and decide not to run. I think she’ll cash out and get some high paying job in the private sector. Whether or not Sinema runs, I think Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Not really sure who republicans will put up.

California: I think Feinstein will retire, she’ll get a lot of pressure from the party to do so. The Democratic race will be wide open. The only person who could maybe clear the field is Gavin Newsom, if he decides to go for Senate instead of a long shot bid for President. Even then, someone would probably run to his left.

Delaware: Not really sure what Carper does. If he retires, Lisa Blunt Rochester is the obvious frontrunner.

Florida: I think Rick Scott is delusional enough to try to run for President. But, he’ll drop out before any primaries take place and will run for re-election. Stephanie Murphy may be his Democratic opponent.

Indiana: I actually think Eric Holcomb may decide to run for this, but someone will probably run to his right.

Maine: I think King retires, and Jared Golden likely takes his place.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but shouldn’t be ruled out. Not sure who the Republicans will nominate, I expect it to be a large field like it was this year.

Texas: I think Cruz only runs for President if Trump doesn’t. Otherwise, he’ll run for another term in the Senate (and will probably win again)

Utah: I think Romney will retire. If not, he’ll still get a primary challenge (likely by Sean Reyes)

Vermont: Bernie probably runs again with no serious opposition.

Virginia: I do think Glenn Youngkin probably runs. Although, he may run for President if Trump doesn’t. If he wants to finish his term as Governor he could instead challenge Mark Warner in 2026.

West Virginia: Manchin runs again, but will almost certainly lose to whoever Republicans nominate.

[Canis]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Here’s my take on some of these:

Arizona: I honestly think Sinema will retire. She’s made so many enemies, she’ll probably see the writing on the wall and decide not to run. I think she’ll cash out and get some high paying job in the private sector. Whether or not Sinema runs, I think Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Not really sure who republicans will put up.

California: I think Feinstein will retire, she’ll get a lot of pressure from the party to do so. The Democratic race will be wide open. The only person who could maybe clear the field is Gavin Newsom, if he decides to go for Senate instead of a long shot bid for President. Even then, someone would probably run to his left.

Delaware: Not really sure what Carper does. If he retires, Lisa Blunt Rochester is the obvious frontrunner.

Florida: I think Rick Scott is delusional enough to try to run for President. But, he’ll drop out before any primaries take place and will run for re-election. Stephanie Murphy may be his Democratic opponent.

Indiana: I actually think Eric Holcomb may decide to run for this, but someone will probably run to his right.

Maine: I think King retires, and Jared Golden likely takes his place.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but shouldn’t be ruled out. Not sure who the Republicans will nominate, I expect it to be a large field like it was this year.

Texas: I think Cruz only runs for President if Trump doesn’t. Otherwise, he’ll run for another term in the Senate (and will probably win again)

Utah: I think Romney will retire. If not, he’ll still get a primary challenge (likely by Sean Reyes)

Vermont: Bernie probably runs again with no serious opposition.

Virginia: I do think Glenn Youngkin probably runs. Although, he may run for President if Trump doesn’t. If he wants to finish his term as Governor he could instead challenge Mark Warner in 2026.

West Virginia: Manchin runs again, but will almost certainly lose to whoever Republicans nominate.

Highly doubt Newsom runs for senate all indicators are that his eyes are on president in 2024 or 2028. London Breed has her eye on that seat and Kamala's people behind the scenes are backing her so she'll probably be the establishment's pick. Katie Porter is also considering running assuming of course she wins reelection this year.

[David Hume]

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race. 

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish him the best of luck...he'll need it, and he's one of the best Senators, I don't want to lose him! Sadly I fear that even a bad, Trumpian JR Majewski-like candidate could still make the election only a tossup at best for his re-election prospects. I really don't trust Ohio, even as Brown has the reputation of knowing how to win in it. The state may very well have changed too much now for that to continue.

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Here’s my take on some of these:

Arizona: I honestly think Sinema will retire. She’s made so many enemies, she’ll probably see the writing on the wall and decide not to run. I think she’ll cash out and get some high paying job in the private sector. Whether or not Sinema runs, I think Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Not really sure who republicans will put up.

California: I think Feinstein will retire, she’ll get a lot of pressure from the party to do so. The Democratic race will be wide open. The only person who could maybe clear the field is Gavin Newsom, if he decides to go for Senate instead of a long shot bid for President. Even then, someone would probably run to his left.

Delaware: Not really sure what Carper does. If he retires, Lisa Blunt Rochester is the obvious frontrunner.

Florida: I think Rick Scott is delusional enough to try to run for President. But, he’ll drop out before any primaries take place and will run for re-election. Stephanie Murphy may be his Democratic opponent.

Indiana: I actually think Eric Holcomb may decide to run for this, but someone will probably run to his right.

Maine: I think King retires, and Jared Golden likely takes his place.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but shouldn’t be ruled out. Not sure who the Republicans will nominate, I expect it to be a large field like it was this year.

Texas: I think Cruz only runs for President if Trump doesn’t. Otherwise, he’ll run for another term in the Senate (and will probably win again)

Utah: I think Romney will retire. If not, he’ll still get a primary challenge (likely by Sean Reyes)

Vermont: Bernie probably runs again with no serious opposition.

Virginia: I do think Glenn Youngkin probably runs. Although, he may run for President if Trump doesn’t. If he wants to finish his term as Governor he could instead challenge Mark Warner in 2026.

West Virginia: Manchin runs again, but will almost certainly lose to whoever Republicans nominate.

First off, uuuggh at Menendez not retiring already!

Second, I think Youngkin will probably try to figure out which incumbent he might have a better chance against, and when: Kaine or Warner. It will probably depend on the environment. I still don't think he'd be able to win though; gubernatorial and Senate dynamics can greatly differ, and Youngkin's victory last year came with some of the best timing possible.

[kwabbit]

I wish him the best of luck...he'll need it, and he's one of the best Senators, I don't want to lose him! Sadly I fear that even a bad, Trumpian JR Majewski-like candidate could still make the election only a tossup at best for his re-election prospects. I really don't trust Ohio, even as Brown has the reputation of knowing how to win in it. The state may very well have changed too much now for that to continue.

Just so everyone is aware, here is what we know so far about Senate 2024.

Arizona: Sinema will certainly get a primary challenge as she has been censured by the state party for keeping the filibuster on voting rights.

California: Feinstein has filed papers, however this has been confirmed to only be a technicality and she may not run again. The CA Dem party is also sick of her as they endorsed de Leon over her in 2018.

Delaware: Carper has said he may retire.

Florida: Scott is running again

Indiana: Braun is retiring to run for Governor.

Maine: King has said he may retire.

Maryland: Cardin hasn't said yet, but given his age he may retire.

Massachusetts: Warren is running again.

Michigan: Stabenow is running again.

Nebraska: Fischer is running again.

New Jersey: Menendez is running again.

Ohio: Brown is running again.

Texas: Cruz has filed to run again, though he may still run for President.

Utah: Romney drama

Vermont: if Bernie runs again, he will likely run in the Dem primary but refuse the nomination again.

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

West Virginia: Manchin is running again, and already has endorsements from Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Here’s my take on some of these:

Arizona: I honestly think Sinema will retire. She’s made so many enemies, she’ll probably see the writing on the wall and decide not to run. I think she’ll cash out and get some high paying job in the private sector. Whether or not Sinema runs, I think Ruben Gallego is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Not really sure who republicans will put up.

California: I think Feinstein will retire, she’ll get a lot of pressure from the party to do so. The Democratic race will be wide open. The only person who could maybe clear the field is Gavin Newsom, if he decides to go for Senate instead of a long shot bid for President. Even then, someone would probably run to his left.

Delaware: Not really sure what Carper does. If he retires, Lisa Blunt Rochester is the obvious frontrunner.

Florida: I think Rick Scott is delusional enough to try to run for President. But, he’ll drop out before any primaries take place and will run for re-election. Stephanie Murphy may be his Democratic opponent.

Indiana: I actually think Eric Holcomb may decide to run for this, but someone will probably run to his right.

Maine: I think King retires, and Jared Golden likely takes his place.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but shouldn’t be ruled out. Not sure who the Republicans will nominate, I expect it to be a large field like it was this year.

Texas: I think Cruz only runs for President if Trump doesn’t. Otherwise, he’ll run for another term in the Senate (and will probably win again)

Utah: I think Romney will retire. If not, he’ll still get a primary challenge (likely by Sean Reyes)

Vermont: Bernie probably runs again with no serious opposition.

Virginia: I do think Glenn Youngkin probably runs. Although, he may run for President if Trump doesn’t. If he wants to finish his term as Governor he could instead challenge Mark Warner in 2026.

West Virginia: Manchin runs again, but will almost certainly lose to whoever Republicans nominate.

First off, uuuggh at Menendez not retiring already!

Second, I think Youngkin will probably try to figure out which incumbent he might have a better chance against, and when: Kaine or Warner. It will probably depend on the environment. I still don't think he'd be able to win though; gubernatorial and senate dynamics can greatly differ, and Youngkin's victory last year came with some of the best timing possible.

Menendez should be primaried. I'm surprised he didn't face a serious challenger in 2018, since his weak challenger got 37%. All the NJ Dem congress people are establishment centrist types, so I don't know if they'd challenge Menendez. Maybe Malinowski can take a shot if he loses to Kean.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

Lol

[SnowLabrador]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

I still think Trump will most likely be the nominee. And even if it's not Trump, they're still going to carry Ohio. It's not winnable statewide for Democrats anymore at the presidential level.