OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Tekken_Guy]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

The consensus actually is that Tester is in big trouble.

[S019]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

I don’t want election deniers in office and I am very skeptical of the claim that Moreno will do significantly worse than Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

I think MT and TX are instances of campaign season not really starting yet - both Allred and Sheehy just aren't that well known or out there yet. I suspect things will change as we get closer to the election.

[S019]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

I think MT and TX are instances of campaign season not really starting yet - both Allred and Sheehy just aren't that well known or out there yet. I suspect things will change as we get closer to the election.

To add on to this, Democrats have not polled particularly poorly in Texas when considering the national numbers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

I think MT and TX are instances of campaign season not really starting yet - both Allred and Sheehy just aren't that well known or out there yet. I suspect things will change as we get closer to the election.

To add on to this, Democrats have not polled particularly poorly in Texas when considering the national numbers.

Yeah but I'm a bit skeptical of polling right now; I do think there's a strong argument TX will trend left decently in 2024 though.

[Dan the Roman]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

I think MT and TX are instances of campaign season not really starting yet - both Allred and Sheehy just aren't that well known or out there yet. I suspect things will change as we get closer to the election.

To add on to this, Democrats have not polled particularly poorly in Texas when considering the national numbers.

Yeah but I'm a bit skeptical of polling right now; I do think there's a strong argument TX will trend left decently in 2024 though.

While I hear the argument it will trend leftward in 2024, the high water mark for Texas Democrats was 2018 and they have done worse every year since then both statewide and locally. The relative primary turnout was atrocious , not just high for the GOP but really low for the Democrats, and Allred did horrendously in the RGV. And that isn't an isolated data point.

The party has been going backwards in local elections in many of the places it made gains last decade, and they are barely contesting many downballot offices. The 2018 breakthrough was built on contesting seats Democrats rarely got over 40% in, and they are failing to field candidates in those sorts of seats today.

As for polling there is no evidence of Allred winning Trump voters or Republicans.  Merely that he can get 42%. Tester by contrast is running 20% ahead of Biden in polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

I think MT and TX are instances of campaign season not really starting yet - both Allred and Sheehy just aren't that well known or out there yet. I suspect things will change as we get closer to the election.

To add on to this, Democrats have not polled particularly poorly in Texas when considering the national numbers.

Yeah but I'm a bit skeptical of polling right now; I do think there's a strong argument TX will trend left decently in 2024 though.

While I hear the argument it will trend leftward in 2024, the high water mark for Texas Democrats was 2018 and they have done worse every year since then both statewide and locally. The relative primary turnout was atrocious , not just high for the GOP but really low for the Democrats, and Allred did horrendously in the RGV. And that isn't an isolated data point.

The party has been going backwards in local elections in many of the places it made gains last decade, and they are barely contesting many downballot offices. The 2018 breakthrough was built on contesting seats Democrats rarely got over 40% in, and they are failing to field candidates in those sorts of seats today.

As for polling there is no evidence of Allred winning Trump voters or Republicans.  Merely that he can get 42%. Tester by contrast is running 20% ahead of Biden in polls.

Sure, 2018 was Dems best showing in TX in a long time, but that's also because TX-Sen 2018 has been the one statewide race Dems have taken remotely seriously over the past 2 decades. In 2020, TX was off the radar till the very end, but still swung and trended left and Biden had the best showing for a Dem Pres since 1996. I think the real lesson from 2018 is when Dems take TX seriously and turn out the voters they can be competitive statewide.

Also Dems largely held the gains they made in 2018 in 2020; they just didn't gain additional ground as much as some expected. In 2022, the state leg elections were obviously on new maps, but Dems generally did fine and won most of the state senate/state house seats that were actually contested that cycle. It's also not like Dems need to win in deep red places to win the TX legislature anymore; their path largely relies on picking up suburban seats Trump won by <10% in 2020; very possible Biden wins an outright majority of state House seats in 2024 even if he's losing TX statewide.

RGV's importance in statewide is largely overrated and primary results in RGV aren't always very useful; a lot of RGV folks who vote in Dem primaries are in-practice Rs but vote in the Dem primaries for local politics, and it's common for RGV to vote for candidates in primaries purely because they have a Hispanic last name. RGV is also the place you'd expect Allred to do the worst since his main challenge, Rolan Gutierrez is a well known state Senator from the region.

I'd finally add given how early it is in the campaign, Allred polling at 42% is fine, it should be a bigger concern that Ted Cruz which is a big name in TX politics struggles to hit 50%.

To be clear, I think Cruz is a favorite in this race, but I feel like people are jumping to conclusions before anything has happened.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is gonna win the reason for this is because Vance won with DeWine, the fact DeWine isn't on ballot hinders Rs in Ohio

Anyone thinking OH and MT S are Lean R instead of Tossup are putting their head in sand

[Roll Roons]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Dolan supports sending aid to Ukraine and Moreno doesn’t.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Dolan supports sending aid to Ukraine and Moreno doesn’t.

Yeah to be honest Dolan and Moreno are both probably favorites for the seats. Democrats would just be (potentially) picking a further right Senator for no good reason.

The coalitions might look different but Moreno is going to be closely tied to a candidate who will be winning the State by 10+

To be honest Democrats should prefer a Portman to a Vance.   

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Dolan supports sending aid to Ukraine and Moreno doesn’t.

Yeah to be honest Dolan and Moreno are both probably favorites for the seats. Democrats would just be (potentially) picking a further right Senator for no good reason.

The coalitions might look different but Moreno is going to be closely tied to a candidate who will be winning the State by 10+

To be honest Democrats should prefer a Portman to a Vance.   

Why?  Far better to gamble on Moreno since he’s abundantly capable of blowing the race.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

[S019]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not changed with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it. I agree Dolan could outrun Trump in suburban counties, but I don’t think Moreno will run meaningfully behind. What is your urban/suburban Republican who is voting Trump but thinks Moreno is too far? Can’t imagine they exist in any large number, so Brown would again be reliant on absurd overperformances in the rurals and in the rapidly Republican trending Northeast. The latter is among the parts of the state that has changed the most, so I’m skeptical he’s going to get the numbers he needs out of those smaller counties.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

[S019]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

You can’t say “barring a wave” because 2010+2014 is when polarization really picked up. A lot of those incumbents were thought to be untouchable. There’s a lot of rewriting history now, but no one in 2008 would’ve guessed those seats collapsed as quickly as they did. The fact that people like Dan Boren ran for the exits in 2012 shows that there were quite a lot (also in states like NC) who knew they would be wiped out in 2012 and thus didn’t run again). On this note, if anyone wants to seriously argue Nick Rahall or John Barrow would’ve survived 2020, I’m willing to listen. In 2018, the pattern largely was the seats that were targeted were the ones that fell (defense in NV/AZ aside). OH, WV, and MT were largely deprioritized in 2018 and this time they are up on presidential ballots. The amount of candidates who actually survived in such a hostile district in 2020 (8 pts or worse for the opposite party) were basically a few Republicans in California, and Harley Rouda aside, those incumbents/candidates had all underperformed in their previous election.

[2016]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

You can’t say “barring a wave” because 2010+2014 is when polarization really picked up. A lot of those incumbents were thought to be untouchable. There’s a lot of rewriting history now, but no one in 2008 would’ve guessed those seats collapsed as quickly as they did. The fact that people like Dan Boren ran for the exits in 2012 shows that there were quite a lot (also in states like NC) who knew they would be wiped out in 2012 and thus didn’t run again). On this note, if anyone wants to seriously argue Nick Rahall or John Barrow would’ve survived 2020, I’m willing to listen. In 2018, the pattern largely was the seats that were targeted were the ones that fell (defense in NV/AZ aside). OH, WV, and MT were largely deprioritized in 2018 and this time they are up on presidential ballots. The amount of candidates who actually survived in such a hostile district in 2020 (8 pts or worse for the opposite party) were basically a few Republicans in California, and Harley Rouda aside, those incumbents/candidates had all underperformed in their previous election.

The fact that over the last two Presidential Elections only Senator Susan Collins survived while her State was going for Biden should scare Democrats. Split Ticket Outcomes are now far more likely during Midterms then in POTUS Elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

You can’t say “barring a wave” because 2010+2014 is when polarization really picked up. A lot of those incumbents were thought to be untouchable. There’s a lot of rewriting history now, but no one in 2008 would’ve guessed those seats collapsed as quickly as they did. The fact that people like Dan Boren ran for the exits in 2012 shows that there were quite a lot (also in states like NC) who knew they would be wiped out in 2012 and thus didn’t run again). On this note, if anyone wants to seriously argue Nick Rahall or John Barrow would’ve survived 2020, I’m willing to listen. In 2018, the pattern largely was the seats that were targeted were the ones that fell (defense in NV/AZ aside). OH, WV, and MT were largely deprioritized in 2018 and this time they are up on presidential ballots. The amount of candidates who actually survived in such a hostile district in 2020 (8 pts or worse for the opposite party) were basically a few Republicans in California, and Harley Rouda aside, those incumbents/candidates had all underperformed in their previous election.

Like hell here’s an article from December 2008: https://www.salon.com/2008/12/08/2010/

The Republicans are going to deal with a big problem of retirements, more so on the Senate side. The Senate map looks terrible for the Republicans. When you think of the Democrats who are up for reelection, the only ones that are really going to be in trouble are Harry Reid plus whoever gets appointed to these vacant seats in Delaware, New York and Illinois simply because of the crazy politics. There could be primaries. That's the only thing that's upsetting the apple cart for the Democrats in the Senate in 2010. The Democrats up for reelection are the guys that won in '04. So Democrats that survived '04 -- I'd be shocked if Republicans found a decent candidate to run against Ken Salazar in Colorado.

I'm not really sure where you go from there. Can Republicans finally find somebody in Arkansas, for God's sake? This is one of the few states that went for McCain by a bigger percentage than it went for Bush. But there's no bench there.

But, let's go through the Republicans. Let's look at Richard Burr [in North Carolina]. That seat has changed hands every six years going back 40 years now. That Senate seat. So how do you assume he's safe? You can't. Kit Bond [in Missouri]. George Voinovich: Does he run again in Ohio? And if he does, do you think that Democrats aren't going to think that they can win now, there? It's not like Voinovich is going to get a free pass. Kit Bond is not going to get a free pass. Is Judd Gregg this time in New Hampshire going to get a free pass? I don't think so this time.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/BrianSlodysko/status/1768425015807009274

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really interesting how post-2024 good chance there are more gay R senators than gay D senators; may actually be the case right now.

[Matty]

LMAO

[Tekken_Guy]

Really interesting how post-2024 good chance there are more gay R senators than gay D senators; may actually be the case right now.

What other gay senators are there?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really interesting how post-2024 good chance there are more gay R senators than gay D senators; may actually be the case right now.

What other gay senators are there?

On the Dem side you have Baldwin, Sinema (bi), and Butler, and on the GOP side there are a lot of roomers around quite a few senators like Graham and Scott. Seems to be a lot of internalized homophobia on the right these days, with men using toxic or hyper masculinity as an outlet for their gay desires without actually coming out as gay.

Good example might be the bodybuilding community on social media. Lots of “straight”  bodybuilding guys making lots of racy posts and sexual comments towards one another.

[The Mikado]

I love how his defense is a friend of his signed him up for this as a prank. Dude, even at that point sites needed you to verify your email to sign you up.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Doubling down on my Bernie endorsement.. homophobic dolan supporters trying to tear down a patriot.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1768438345946865674
If Brown actually did this he would win honestly.