OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is going to win the Republican Senate Primary. Why would Ohio Voters choose two Candidates who have lost Statewide Primary Races in 2022, Moreno and Dolan.

Biden isn't going to win Ohio even if Trump is the Nominee. Ohio is Republican Territory!

Senate Republicans have received some massive breaks over the last few weeks.

# 1 West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) announces Senate Run.
# 2 Last Week PA State Senator Doug Mastriano (R) announced he would not run for Senate in Pennsylvania likely clearing the way for Hedge Fund Manager & 2022' Senate Candidate Dave McCormick (R) to run.
# 3 Today Ohio Congressman Warren Davidson (R) announced he would not run for Senate which turns the Ohio Republican Senate Primary into a 3-way Primary between LaRose, Moreno and Dolan.

Mastriano & Davidson clearly were the two most unelectable Candidates considering Senate Bids for 2024 and they are both out now.

Thus far and it's very early in the 2024 Election Cycle the NRSC Recruiting Efforts under Steve Daines are going a lot better compared to 2022 when Rick Scott was the NRSC Chair.

You do know Rs lost WI by 11 in the Judge race and PA special H race and FL and Casey is up 9 pts and the PVI in Change Research and Morning Consult has Biden plus 5 and we only won the PVI by 1 in 22 we clearly beat you guys in all the 303 states you won't win 303 states and there is no poll in OH wait for an Emerson poll Tester and Brown have 50% Approvals


Beshear, Presley and Stein are 3 pts or less in red not blue states Presley and Beshesr are supposed to be 10 pts back and LA Gov is going to a Runoff Landry is at 34% not 60% like Kennedy won by

Manchin is at 38% because he is taking his time on announcing Act blue and Poor people campaign said trage Sinema and Manchin anyways it doesn't say triage the others

You guys have to win 303 states to win the Prez we only need Red states to keep the S and if we lose the S Collins, Tillis are vulnerable in 26 and Johnson is vulnerable in 28

[GALeftist]

I'm pretty shocked by this. Not only would have had CFG's backing, but being the only candidate not from Northeast Ohio would have given him a real leg up in the primary.

I’m actually not that surprised. I feel like if Davidson had wanted to run for Senate, he would’ve done it in 2022 when there was an open seat.

It looks like this primary is going to come down to Dolan, Moreno, and (likely) LaRose. If LaRose enters, I think it’s advantage Dolan, as LaRose and Moreno would split the “MAGA” vote. If it’s a two way race between Dolan and Moreno, I think Moreno is favored.

Doubt it. More likely to end up as a proxy DeSantis/Trump battle, with LaRose as DeSantis's champion and Moreno as Trump's. As such, I think Moreno is a slight favorite as of now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown and Tester and GALLEGO and ALLRED and Kunce have pretty high Approvals Hawley and Cruz are stuck at 45% it's not over with until all the votes are cast

Just because Ryan lost in a neutral not red leaning yr means Brown loses, DeWine pulled Vance over and Vance only won by 5

[Roll Roons]

Just a rumor for now, but could be something to watch: https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737

FWIW, I think Vivek would become the primary frontrunner if he ended his presidential bid and ran here instead.

[Tekken_Guy]

Just a rumor for now, but could be something to watch: https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737

FWIW, I think Vivek would become the primary frontrunner if he ended his presidential bid and ran here instead.

What about Moreno?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just a rumor for now, but could be something to watch: https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737

FWIW, I think Vivek would become the primary frontrunner if he ended his presidential bid and ran here instead.

If Ramaswamy is the nominee, then Republicans will have re-elected Brown.

[Nyvin]

Ramaswamy would be an even worse candidate for Republican's chances of winning than Moreno.   OH-Sen would probably become Likely D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a post indictment world it's not a typical Eday users need to learn this that's why I made a wave insurance map because we didn't have an R indictment in 2018/20/22

[Zedonathin2020]

If, and I mean IF Ramaswamy is the nominee somehow, that will only further cement my belief that Brown will be re-elected.

I’ve already had it at tossup/Tilt D for a while now, but this’ll probably put at at a high Lean D, maybe even low likely

[Ferguson97]

Lmao if Ramaswamy is the nominee, Brown will win re-election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown already leading, let's not underestimated the blue wave, if Brown wins we win the S meaning FL, MO, MT and TX are gonna be the 50/51st Seat, Rs are already struggling in MS and KY and a Runoff likely in LA G

[Sir Mohamed]

Just a rumor for now, but could be something to watch: https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737

FWIW, I think Vivek would become the primary frontrunner if he ended his presidential bid and ran here instead.

From Vivek's perspective, this would make sense. He's possibly a better candidate running for senate than the current contenders there. Trump has nothing to lose from here either.

[Lambsbread]

Actually a pretty smart move by Ramaswamy as far as his personal calculus goes. Run for President knowing you're not going to win, build enough name recognition by giving the base what they want as far as anti-big tech/anti-woke nonsense, drop out and endorse Trump and get his endorsement since it worked for Vance. I don't know if he can beat Sherrod Brown, but he certainly becomes the frontrunner for the Republican nomination if this all comes to pass.

[SnowLabrador]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

[NYDem]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

2022 was a Biden midterm. It’s not at all unexpected that Democrats lost the Senate race. Acting like a state that the Democrats lost by 6 in a Democratic midterm can’t be won by an incumbent is idiotic.

Brown might honestly be an underdog here, but “Look at 2022” is a pretty terrible argument for that position. Either way I can’t see rating this race worse than lean R at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

The Rs won OH with DeWine winning by 25 and Vance won by 5 Brown is ahead by 2 pts DeWine isn't on the ballot you are such a Doomer and Johnson win by 1 and that was because of IAN helped all Rs down the ballot not just DeSantis

That's why PA, NV, AZ, and GA should of been Runaways for Ds Casey and Rosen are leading by 5/9 pts not with IAN and DeSantis is losing by 7 on the NPV that's a blue wave

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1668637436497240064?s=20

Holy sh*t, his announcement was to commit to pardoning Trump if elected President. He's demanding that every other candidate also pledge to do the same.

What a simp.

"I don't want to this election by eliminating our competition by a federal administrative police state arresting my opponents."

Hey bud, why don't you ask the guy who you're pledging to pardon how he feels about arresting his political opponents?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1668637436497240064?s=20

Holy sh*t, his announcement was to commit to pardoning Trump if elected President. He's demanding that every other candidate also pledge to do the same.

What a simp.

"I don't want to this election by eliminating our competition by a federal administrative police state arresting my opponents."

Hey bud, why don't you ask the guy who you're pledging to pardon how he feels about arresting his political opponents?

He so obviously just wants a Cabinet position in a second Trump term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1668637436497240064?s=20

Holy sh*t, his announcement was to commit to pardoning Trump if elected President. He's demanding that every other candidate also pledge to do the same.

What a simp.

"I don't want to this election by eliminating our competition by a federal administrative police state arresting my opponents."

Hey bud, why don't you ask the guy who you're pledging to pardon how he feels about arresting his political opponents?

He so obviously just wants a Cabinet position in a second Trump term.

There won't be a Trump second term, Trump is gonna be in an ankle bracelet

[Tekken_Guy]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

Sherrod Brown was an incumbent and Tim Ryan was not, and 2022 was an R+3 year nationally. And Vance still ran 2 points behind Trump’s 2020 numbers. Ramaswany may be a worse candidate than even Vance.

[Horus]

Outside of certain parts of the Cincinnati suburbs, Ramaswamy is a dreadful fit for Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is a Doomer, we must all remember that Trump is being indicted it's not a typical Eday, some users like Vosem and Snowlabrador thinks OH is IN, no IA has 97% white is the new IN, OH has 12% blk and 12% Arabs

We need to wait for an Emerson poll, they were right on the spot in most races except WI they PRED John's plus 5 not 1 and NV Laxalt plus 5

Their only FL poll had Trump tied with Biden

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1668637436497240064?s=20

Holy sh*t, his announcement was to commit to pardoning Trump if elected President. He's demanding that every other candidate also pledge to do the same.

What a simp.

"I don't want to this election by eliminating our competition by a federal administrative police state arresting my opponents."

Hey bud, why don't you ask the guy who you're pledging to pardon how he feels about arresting his political opponents?

He so obviously just wants a Cabinet position in a second Trump term.

That or he's angling for a second preference among Trump voters in case Trump is found guilty or forced to drop out. His buzz online is starting to grow among MAGA people.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

Sherrod Brown was an incumbent and Tim Ryan was not, and 2022 was an R+3 year nationally. And Vance still ran 2 points behind Trump’s 2020 numbers. Ramaswany may be a worse candidate than even Vance.

I do wonder to what extent Ryan actually outperformed partisanship in 2022; topline a 6 point loss doesn't seem like anything notable, but all the other statewide D v R races Rs were close to cracking 60% (and in a few cases they did). Ryan's margin likely would've been closer with fuller turnout given the areas where he underran Biden can almost all be attributed to poor black/minority turnout. Ryan still would've certainly lost even with normal black turnout though.

I also think people need to remember, even in this partisanship we still do see a handful of Senate and House races heavily invested in by both sides where someone still has a 8, 10, or even 12 point overperformance relative to Pres numbers.

In 2020, Ohio was almost exactly Trump + 8. Even if we assume Ohio votes for Trump by a similar margin in 2022, an 8 point overperformance on Brown's part certainly isn't impossible, especially if Rs screw up. It's also possible Ohio will be closer than it was in 2020 (though I think it's unlikely Biden wins the state or makes it seriously close).

The most important thing for a Dem if they want to win Ohio nowadays is getting back that crossover support in rural areas, especially in the eastern and northeastern parts of the state. Statewide, this is tricky because rural voters are by definition very spread out, and hence there's a lot of different local issues and stuff that need to be appealed to. Urban and suburban margins also matter, but Ohio really lacks a dominate city so it's less important compared to other states.

I would still say Brown is the underdog, but I don't think it's impossible for Ds to win OH statewide in the right circumstances.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

Sherrod Brown was an incumbent and Tim Ryan was not, and 2022 was an R+3 year nationally. And Vance still ran 2 points behind Trump’s 2020 numbers. Ramaswany may be a worse candidate than even Vance.

I do wonder to what extent Ryan actually outperformed partisanship in 2022; topline a 6 point loss doesn't seem like anything notable, but all the other statewide D v R races Rs were close to cracking 60% (and in a few cases they did). Ryan's margin likely would've been closer with fuller turnout given the areas where he underran Biden can almost all be attributed to poor black/minority turnout. Ryan still would've certainly lost even with normal black turnout though.

I also think people need to remember, even in this partisanship we still do see a handful of Senate and House races heavily invested in by both sides where someone still has a 8, 10, or even 12 point overperformance relative to Pres numbers.

In 2020, Ohio was almost exactly Trump + 8. Even if we assume Ohio votes for Trump by a similar margin in 2022, an 8 point overperformance on Brown's part certainly isn't impossible, especially if Rs screw up. It's also possible Ohio will be closer than it was in 2020 (though I think it's unlikely Biden wins the state or makes it seriously close).

The most important thing for a Dem if they want to win Ohio nowadays is getting back that crossover support in rural areas, especially in the eastern and northeastern parts of the state. Statewide, this is tricky because rural voters are by definition very spread out, and hence there's a lot of different local issues and stuff that need to be appealed to. Urban and suburban margins also matter, but Ohio really lacks a dominate city so it's less important compared to other states.

I would still say Brown is the underdog, but I don't think it's impossible for Ds to win OH statewide in the right circumstances.

Rs aren't winning OH by 8 pts in 27 with Trump 2 Indictment

He can win Ryan lost because DeWine was in the ballot and pushed Vance thru by winning by 25 and Vañce barely won by 5 that's why Brown is up by 2 and he overperformrned in 2012 against Josh Mandel users keep forgetting that just like Rs underperforming in WI when Ron Johnson isnt on the ballot Baldwin is fav over Clark be ause Rob Johnson isnt on the ballot that's why we won the Judge race by 11 in Aor