Early Voting thread.

[Minnesota Mike]

How about a look at a state we have not looked at much on this thread, New Mexico.

Total Early/Absentee vote so far

Dem- 76,419 (55.7%)
Rep- 44,720 (32.6%)
Other- 16,088 (11.7%)
Total- 137,227

Party registration in NM is Dem 44% - Rep 31% - Other 25%
In 2018 there were a total 700,000 voters. We are about 20% of the way there.

So far it looks pretty good for Dems, they are substantially beating their registration numbers and are returning a higher percentage of requested absentees.  Dems up 52-37 in person and 66-21 by mail.

[wbrocks67]

How about a look at a state we have not looked at much on this thread, New Mexico.

Total Early/Absentee vote so far

Dem- 76,419 (55.7%)
Rep- 44,720 (32.6%)
Other- 16,088 (11.7%)
Total- 137,227

Party registration in NM is Dem 44% - Rep 31% - Other 25%
In 2018 there were a total 700,000 voters. We are about 20% of the way there.

So far it looks pretty good for Dems, they are substantially beating their registration numbers and are returning a higher percentage of requested absentees.  Dems up 52-37 in person and 66-21 by mail.

Yeah, saw this earlier. Still early, but things looking surprisingly good here for Dems so far. Certainly does not seem like a Ronchetti +1 electorate right now.

[RI]

TargetSmart's modeled partisan swing from 2020 circa 13 days before the election:

[It’s so Joever]

TargetSmart's modeled partisan swing from 2020 circa 13 days before the election:

Press recommend to doubt.

[Brittain33]

Does Atlasia still exist and can we consign TargetShart’s models to there

[BenjiG98]

What is the deal with TargetSmart? They say they pull their data directly from the state websites, so I don't get why people trash them here.

[wbrocks67]

What is the deal with TargetSmart? They say they pull their data directly from the state websites, so I don't get why people trash them here.

I think they're a good source for actual party registration. I think where they get into trouble is when they do their "modeled" electorates.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

What is the deal with TargetSmart? They say they pull their data directly from the state websites, so I don't get why people trash them here.

Their dashboard is great so long as you filter it for actual party registration/race/gender or anything else. The issue that people here have is that in states where partisan registration isn't available, they run early voters through a model that assigns them to a party based on race, past behavior etc. The part that really loses people is that TS won't "show their work" as to how the model assigns partisanship, so we don't know what it's doing to get those numbers.

[Unelectable Bystander]

How much of Nevada is up to date? Are we waiting on mail dumps, non-reporting rural counties, etc? Target smart shows Clark ahead of other counties at about 30% of total 2020 early vote, but the Clark firewall is only 5%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I ran something to calculate the total percentage of votes cast in each Minnesota county so far as a share of 2020's total numbers ranked highest to lowest. Statewide the percentage is 5.26% (so yes this really isn't that important regardless.) Biden counties are bolded.

Red Lake County 21.35% Marshall County 17.62% Grant County 16.31% Traverse County 14.18% Norman County 13.91% Cass County 13.74% Koochiching County 13.12% Watonwan County 11.63% Aitkin County 11.30% Kittson County 10.85% Lake of the Woods County 10.40% Pope County 10.39% Lac qui Parle County 10.19% Stevens County 10.13% Polk County 10.04% Murray County 9.56% Cook County 9.49% Itasca County 8.43% Blue Earth County 8.31% Le Sueur County 8.31% Nobles County 8.26% Roseau County 7.66% Swift County 7.57% Nicollet County 7.55% Mahnomen County 7.32% Yellow Medicine County 7.12% Hubbard County 7.06% Brown County 7.05% Washington County 6.51% Ramsey County 6.48% Mower County 6.26% Hennepin County 6.16% Wabasha County 6.09% Meeker County 6.02% Carlton County 5.98% Freeborn County 5.87% Crow Wing County 5.79% Pipestone County 5.78% Fillmore County 5.70% Douglas County 5.67% Lake County 5.53% Lyon County 5.39% Sibley County 5.30% Pennington County 5.20% Carver County 5.15% Stearns County 5.09% Dakota County 4.96% Chippewa County 4.91% Clay County 4.70% Rice County 4.35% St. Louis County 4.34% Olmsted County 4.28% Pine County 4.23% Big Stone County 4.22% Goodhue County 4.16% Faribault County 4.13% Becker County 4.05% Anoka County 3.99% Steele County 3.84% Clearwater County 3.78% Morrison County 3.77% Otter Tail County 3.64% Beltrami County 3.53% Scott County 3.51% Benton County 3.50% Kandiyohi County 3.48% Mille Lacs County 3.17% Wright County 3.15% Sherburne County 3.11% Chisago County 3.06% McLeod County 2.82% Redwood County 2.82% Isanti County 2.58% Kanabec County 2.55% Todd County 2.55% Wadena County 2.53% Houston County 2.50% Waseca County 2.47% Cottonwood County 2.18% Rock County 2.08% Dodge County 2.02% Wilkin County 2.00% Winona County 1.95% Renville County 1.95% Jackson County 1.91% Martin County 1.86% Lincoln County 1.77%

As far as why those rural counties rank so high: A lot of rural townships in Minnesota are vote by mail only, and the ballots get sent out automatically to all registered voters in them. The double digit ones all have a bunch of the population in such townships. That's the only real correlation I can draw from these to results to anything.

We'll get new numbers tomorrow and I'll update then.

[soundchaser]

How much of Nevada is up to date? Are we waiting on mail dumps, non-reporting rural counties, etc? Target smart shows Clark ahead of other counties at about 30% of total 2020 early vote, but the Clark firewall is only 5%.

We’re not sure yet. That’s part of why it’s tough to draw conclusions — we’re waiting on all of the above.

[xavier110]

People need to stop grouping AZ with bad for Ds list. That is simply not the case. They’re exceeding/meeting 2018 benchmarks thus far.

The confounding factor is GOP EDay turnout. It may seem surprising, but only around 17 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maricopa, for example, was banked on Election Day this year (source: https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:03a2698d-ff49-49eb-a2b2-5b4f5fe608c8/08-02-2022-1%20Final%20Official%20Summary%20Report%20AUG2022.pdf). Over 80 percent of partisan republicans voted early despite Trump!

And 15 percent voted on EDay for 2018 GOP primary… so it’s not some huge jump (https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:d0cf70c9-ee46-4d2f-a4f4-a789870d0ee8/08-28-2018%20Final%20Summary%20Report.pdf).

It seems safe to say Ds will barely be a blip on EDay, however.

[Unelectable Bystander]

People need to stop grouping AZ with bad for Ds list. That is simply not the case. They’re exceeding/meeting 2018 benchmarks thus far.

The confounding factor is GOP EDay turnout. It may seem surprising, but only around 17 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maricopa, for example, was banked on Election Day this year (source: https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:03a2698d-ff49-49eb-a2b2-5b4f5fe608c8/08-02-2022-1%20Final%20Official%20Summary%20Report%20AUG2022.pdf). Over 80 percent of partisan republicans voted early despite Trump!

And 15 percent voted on EDay for 2018 GOP primary… so it’s not some huge jump (https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:d0cf70c9-ee46-4d2f-a4f4-a789870d0ee8/08-28-2018%20Final%20Summary%20Report.pdf).

It seems safe to say Ds will barely be a blip on EDay, however.

Maricopa republicans skew old so their votes skew early. Looking statewide tells a different story. These are the % of vote share received on election day, based on my calculations from the state website:

Biden 2020: 7%
Trump 2020: 15%
Kelly 2022: 7%
Senate republicans 2022: 22%

I’m even seeing Masters and Lake specifically getting about 26% of their votes on election day. 2018 is not a valid comparison as the vote method divide continues to grow.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Day 2 EV report...The GOP is doing better in TX than in 2014 as of now...

[riceowl]

Impossible, I voted today!

[xavier110]

People need to stop grouping AZ with bad for Ds list. That is simply not the case. They’re exceeding/meeting 2018 benchmarks thus far.

The confounding factor is GOP EDay turnout. It may seem surprising, but only around 17 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maricopa, for example, was banked on Election Day this year (source: https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:03a2698d-ff49-49eb-a2b2-5b4f5fe608c8/08-02-2022-1%20Final%20Official%20Summary%20Report%20AUG2022.pdf). Over 80 percent of partisan republicans voted early despite Trump!

And 15 percent voted on EDay for 2018 GOP primary… so it’s not some huge jump (https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:d0cf70c9-ee46-4d2f-a4f4-a789870d0ee8/08-28-2018%20Final%20Summary%20Report.pdf).

It seems safe to say Ds will barely be a blip on EDay, however.

Maricopa republicans skew old so their votes skew early. Looking statewide tells a different story. These are the % of vote share received on election day, based on my calculations from the state website:

Biden 2020: 7%
Trump 2020: 15%
Kelly 2022: 7%
Senate republicans 2022: 22%

I’m even seeing Masters and Lake specifically getting about 26% of their votes on election day. 2018 is not a valid comparison as the vote method divide continues to grow.

Still, Maricopa is fairly instructive since it’s where the majority lives. I would be  surprised if Masters and Lake’s ED vote is 26 percent of their total when the ED vote was around 20 percent of the total primary vote — and you would expect those folks, primary participants, to be the diehards. But who knows

[Unelectable Bystander]

People need to stop grouping AZ with bad for Ds list. That is simply not the case. They’re exceeding/meeting 2018 benchmarks thus far.

The confounding factor is GOP EDay turnout. It may seem surprising, but only around 17 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maricopa, for example, was banked on Election Day this year (source: https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:03a2698d-ff49-49eb-a2b2-5b4f5fe608c8/08-02-2022-1%20Final%20Official%20Summary%20Report%20AUG2022.pdf). Over 80 percent of partisan republicans voted early despite Trump!

And 15 percent voted on EDay for 2018 GOP primary… so it’s not some huge jump (https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:d0cf70c9-ee46-4d2f-a4f4-a789870d0ee8/08-28-2018%20Final%20Summary%20Report.pdf).

It seems safe to say Ds will barely be a blip on EDay, however.

Maricopa republicans skew old so their votes skew early. Looking statewide tells a different story. These are the % of vote share received on election day, based on my calculations from the state website:

Biden 2020: 7%
Trump 2020: 15%
Kelly 2022: 7%
Senate republicans 2022: 22%

I’m even seeing Masters and Lake specifically getting about 26% of their votes on election day. 2018 is not a valid comparison as the vote method divide continues to grow.

Still, Maricopa is fairly instructive since it’s where the majority lives. I would be  surprised if Masters and Lake’s ED vote is 26 percent of their total when the ED vote was around 20 percent of the total primary vote — and you would expect those folks, primary participants, to be the diehards. But who knows

That doesn’t make any sense. Why would we look at one county when the entire state’s numbers are available? As for the reason why those two have higher %’s than the rest of the republicans, it’s because being farther right and being less urban now make one more likely to vote on Election Day. We’ve seen it in GOP primaries, general elections, and even democrat primaries since 2020. The assumption that Election Day turnout will look similar to 2018 is a bad assumption and it’s the reason why Arizona was called early before Trump made it so close by winning E day 2 to 1.

Even if those numbers don’t hold up and Masters gets the same 15% as Trump instead of 22% or 26%, he will still win E day by 2 to 1 margins, which is why Kelly needs Biden margins in the early vote.

[Nyvin]

Early voting began today in Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

Day 2 EV report...The GOP is doing better in TX than in 2014 as of now...

I have to find the tweet... I thought I saw something about how 2018's early vote by party "primary history" was basically just as bad as the 2014 #s.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1585337438205276160

[wbrocks67]

PA is definitely a bright spot so far, Dems have banked 500K votes there, and their return rate (54%) continues to grow past the GOPs (49%) on mail ballots.

[sg0508]

Watch that GA governor's race. While I'm not Abrams fan, the early turnout from what we keep hearing makes me strongly think that race is far from over.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 10 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 132,444 voters cast ballots Wednesday, for a grand total of 1,255,773 votes.

Slight uptick in non-white vote compared to yesterday across all groups, but not enough to offset overall increase in white EV share. Females continue to see their share of the vote increase day-by-day.

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

81745 	White	61.72%
34339 	Black	25.92%
2201         Asian	1.66%
2017 	Latino	1.52%
12142 	Other	9.18%

73811	Female	55.73%
58326 	Male	        44.04%	
307          Other         0.23%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

717959	White	57.17%
386606	Black	30.79%
19369	Asian	1.54%
19025       Latino	1.52%
112814	Other	8.98%

687321	Female	54.73%
566168	Male	        45.09%	
2283	        Other	0.18%

[MillennialModerate]

Watch that GA governor's race. While I'm not Abrams fan, the early turnout from what we keep hearing makes me strongly think that race is far from over.

Have a hard time seeing that - a decent amount moderate D’s are crossing over because they see Kemp as doing the honorable thing ie 2020 election

[bilaps]

Dems up 13k after new batch of mail votes from Clark. Now, it's a 10% advantage which is what they need. Just the numbers are low, and if Rs turnout on Election day is big...

In Washoe, Dems have 1300 lead. But, percentages are starting to turn little there in favor of Republicans. Dems won last day with mail and ev combined by around 100 votes.