Early Voting thread.

[It’s so Joever]

So I know everyone loves to hate on TargetSmart, but they do provide some important info. Assuming they are not just completely up actual turnout numbers, you can get an accurate account of votes per CD and that is not exactly something you can "fake" like a model. So I took the number of current early votes in each district as a percentage of total 2020 early vote. Now I know someone is already about to say "but the early vote is now far more R-leaning than before" but primaries do not indicate that, and there is no way people were much more scared of Covid-19 in July 2022 than now.

One last thing, do not compare CD's in different states, I should not have to explain why. Look at intra-state differences lol.

These are the results:

[wbrocks67]

Oregon will be instructive, unless there's a huge crossover vote. But for now, Ds have edge.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1585072665542262784

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Here comes the White Cavalry:

Day 9 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,733 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,123,329 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

84975 	White	62.15%
35234 	Black	25.77%
2170         Asian	1.59%
2037 	Latino	1.49%
12317 	Other	9.00%

76062	Female	55.63%
60384 	Male	        44.16%	
287          Other         0.21%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

636214	White	56.64%
352267	Black	31.36%
17168	Asian	1.53%
17008       Latino	1.51%
100672	Other	8.96%

613510	Female	54.62%
507842	Male	        45.21%	
1977	        Other	0.17%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Derek Ryan's Day 1 analysis of TX Early voting

Not great if you were hoping for a close statewide race..

Caveat: Some counties are missing, mostly rural, though one county missing in the urban areas is Travis County.

[wbrocks67]

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 1.12M (56.5% white - 31.3% black) —> +25.2 white

Runoff 2021:

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[RI]

Very early and likely not representative, but Republican ballot returns are about 3-4 points ahead where they were at this point in the primary in my legislative district.

[wbrocks67]

Very early and likely not representative, but Republican ballot returns are about 3-4 points ahead where they were at this point in the primary in my legislative district.

I thought there was no party ID in WA?

[RI]

Very early and likely not representative, but Republican ballot returns are about 3-4 points ahead where they were at this point in the primary in my legislative district.

I thought there was no party ID in WA?

There isn't party registration, but between the various local campaigns this cycle we've identified how almost every voter leans.

[Adam Griffin]

I've been projecting that we will see 2.8-3.0m early votes cast in Georgia & an additional 1.2-1.6m Election Day votes, for an average total of 4.3m votes.

As of Tuesday, GA's raw in-person early vote is 87% of what it was on the same day (EV Day 9) in 2020. If those EV proportions remain steady and are reflected in ED as well, that points to an electorate of 4.35m voters. That's just a tad shy of the turnout during last year's Senate runoffs.

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada has gone from being the one state you could have some confidence of getting some useful information from early voting to a complete $hitshow. In Clark county nobody seems to know when or if we are going to get the big dumps of mail votes that would seem to have to be out there (turnout just can't be this bad can it?). The cow counties are reporting absolutely nothing and probably won't until next Monday (during the primary the SOS reported numbers only on the 2nd Monday of early voting and the Monday before election day).  Washoe county is the only place in Nevada that is behaving semi normally and even there turnout seems low. Democrats had a good night tonight in Washoe netting about 500 votes with a total vote dump of about 10,000 votes cast. Republicans won the in person voting by 500 and Democrats the absentees by 1,000. There were about twice as many absentees as in person votes.

[bilaps]

Latest from Clark is Dems are now up 9,1k after new batch of mail and latest in-person for yesterday. In terms of percentages it's around 9%.

[MillennialModerate]

WaPost had an article saying Georgia early vote electorate looks more like 2018 then 2020.

That could mean one of two things… ‘18 was a far more Dem leaning year, but not in Georgia

Any insight ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1585187226924654592

[wbrocks67]

WaPost had an article saying Georgia early vote electorate looks more like 2018 then 2020.

That could mean one of two things… ‘18 was a far more Dem leaning year, but not in Georgia

Any insight ?

I mean, as of right now, it's closer to 2021 than 2018, but I don't have 2018 stats on hand.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1585187226924654592

The question I guess will be how many mail-ins ultimately get returned. If a solid # gets returned with this pace of % share for Dems continuing, a good sign for them.

[bilaps]

For once I would agree with you.

Currently Dem margin isn't big and they're lagging in percentages if you take a number of days before election day. However, that 9% advantage from Clark is just below final percentages before election day in 2020. If I'm Republican I would expect bigger election day turnout than the last time.

In Florida Dems margin stayed 32k after a big VBM day for them yesterday.

[Adam Griffin]

EV gender breakdown (as of Tuesday):

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

I don't know why people trust Target Smart in states without party registration like TX. Their modeled party "data" is often horribly inaccurate.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

I don't know why people trust Target Smart in states without party registration like TX. Their modeled party "data" is often horribly inaccurate.

Just using the reliable data we see evidence of a massive red wave. But using a model is like trusting a Monmouth poll.

[soundchaser]

Update from Ralston: still in a holding pattern. Dems are doing very well by mail in Clark (crushing the Republican lead in the rurals), but turnout remains low outside of Washoe (where Dems are actually doing surprisingly well). They need to beat their registration edge given the likely tilt of indies this cycle, but we're about where things were in 2018 in terms of the raw freiwal number.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

I don't know why people trust Target Smart in states without party registration like TX. Their modeled party "data" is often horribly inaccurate.

Just using the reliable data we see evidence of a massive red wave. But using a model is like trusting a Monmouth poll.

More Black vote % in GA= red wave?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some context on the Georgia EV:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1585275202719694853

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

I don't know why people trust Target Smart in states without party registration like TX. Their modeled party "data" is often horribly inaccurate.

Just using the reliable data we see evidence of a massive red wave. But using a model is like trusting a Monmouth poll.

Could certainly be true. Speaking of, they had a new update today. Some items of note:

R’s gained nationally, looking closer to 2020 by modeled partisanship

Rural vote is up by a few points nationally. TX, NC, VA are looking notably rural (this includes TX 15, 28, and 34 at the district level, subject to small-ish data)

Speaking of Texas, the dem modeled partisanship lead was a mirage. It’s now close to 2020 levels, about 48-41 R

AZ, NV (subject to mail-in ballot question marks)  FL, NC are still R bright spots. Rust belt and GA are still D bright spots. Wisconsin is notably less rural, though it is more suburban.

Confessional R’s that look notably strong: All of California, RGV, IA-3, FL-27, ME-2

[wbrocks67]

AZ passes 500K

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1585295959394639872

[Unelectable Bystander]

Some context on the Georgia EV:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1585275202719694853

This is a very dumb point by him. Sure, make the point that it might just be republicans voting earlier in the cycle, but the point about county size is meaningless. Obviously Greene county has less people than Atlanta, that’s already baked into the equation.