Early Voting thread.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 7 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 20,744 voters cast ballots Saturday in Georgia, for a grand total of 837,628 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

8586 	White	41.39%
8561 	Black	41.27%
739          Asian	        3.56%
509 	       Latino	2.45%
2349 	Other	11.33%

12026	Female	57.97%
8639 	Male	        41.65%	
79            Other         0.38%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

462237	White	55.18%
275086	Black	32.84%
12751       Latino	1.52%
12722	Asian	1.52%
74832	Other	8.94%

455323	Female	54.36%
380931	Male	        45.48%	
1374	        Other	0.16%

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1583905285231345664?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ct...

AZ update. In raw numbers, Ds up 10 percent, Rs down 32 percent and Is down 13 percent vs 2018.

Do you think the 90k early Republican voters chose Lake and Finchem on their mail ballots? Sigh lol

[axiomsofdominion]

Amazing numbers today. GeorgiaVotes actually has more black than white voters. Also women vs men was much more heavily in favor of women and youth % cumulative increased another 0.5% at the expense of 65+.

All in all a fantastic day for what will arguably the lower turnout of the 2 Sunday Voting days.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Could someone please tell me what the actual f@ck is going on in Georgia? WTF are Black voters almost a plurality of the early vote for today?

[axiomsofdominion]

Could someone please tell me what the actual f@ck is going on in Georgia? WTF are Black voters almost a plurality of the early vote for today?

Actually they are a plurality according to GeorgiaVotes and other models.

The reason is simple. Only the larger blacker urban and semi-suburban counties had voting today. Sunday voting is permissible on two days but not required. Also Souls To the Polls engrouages black voters to vote after church.

Note that ~40% of ~18000 voters is only 7200 voters. The second Sunday this year has more counties open for early voting so you'll get more that day. There were 24400 votes the second Sunday of 2018 so you might see something like 70000 votes that day. The 2018 black shared was 51.5% for the second Sunday but only 33.6% for the first Sunday. We might see black vote share crack 55% this year for those ~70000 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

Amazing numbers today. GeorgiaVotes actually has more black than white voters. Also women vs men was much more heavily in favor of women and youth % cumulative increased another 0.5% at the expense of 65+.

All in all a fantastic day for what will arguably the lower turnout of the 2 Sunday Voting days.

For Georgia specifically, the difference between GAVotes figures on their chart and my figures is that their charts (as opposed to their main page figures) only count in-person votes (something like 18k today), whereas mine includes ABMs processed in the total (close to 21k today), so while the AIP+ABM total was very close overall with whites edging out blacks today, it does appear that the mail ballots were meaningfully more white and the in-person vote was slightly more black, which when combined explains the difference.

[Adam Griffin]

Could someone please tell me what the actual f@ck is going on in Georgia? WTF are Black voters almost a plurality of the early vote for today?

Counties with Sunday EV (thanks to axiomsofdominion for compiling this).

Sunday Counties: Biden +35; 43% Black, 39% White VAP; 52% of state's population
Elsewhere: Trump +35; 67% White, 21% Black VAP; 48% of state's population

[axiomsofdominion]

I believe only 6? counties had EV today? Something insane like that. I also didn't check every county I just checked for counties that had lots of voters and went for Warnock in 2021.

Gabriel Sterling keeps refusing to give comprehensive results to me on Twitter.

I assume someone could look at the changes today in the county vote totals and figure out exactly which counties had it today.

I DMed the GeorgiaVotes guy to see if he can get something accurate.

I'm not sure which of those 15 counties have Sunday voting on the 23rd, 30th, or both.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Could someone please tell me what the actual f@ck is going on in Georgia? WTF are Black voters almost a plurality of the early vote for today?

Counties with Sunday EV (thanks to axiomsofdominion for compiling this).

Sunday Counties: Biden +35; 43% Black, 39% White VAP; 52% of state's population
Elsewhere: Trump +35; 67% White, 21% Black VAP; 48% of state's population

Even with this do the numbers still look good for Ds?

[Adam Griffin]

Even with this do the numbers still look good for Ds?

They correspond with a genuinely competitive race: they look OK for Democrats, but I'm hesitant to say - with another 12 days of EV remaining - that they're "good". They certainly don't look "good" for Republicans. A lot can change, however.

I'm expecting 2.7-3.0m early votes by the time everything is done, with a total turnout of 4.2-4.3m. If these patterns can roughly hold, then we're on track for a 2021-redux via ED vote where Warnock has a fantastic shot at making a runoff worst-case scenario.

[axiomsofdominion]

Dems are crushing it IMO. At least in Georgia. Now NV is where I'm worried but tomorrow night we'll probably know more as the Clark mail ballots hit.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a map showing turnout as of Sunday by county - as a share of "% of '18" as shown by Georgia Votes (still not entirely clear what this is a measurement of, as the numbers don't line up with total 2018 EV or 2018 EV on this comparable day). Colors are in gradients of 10 points (the lightest shade is <30% & the darkest shade is >100%).

DRA data available here.



I also thought it'd be interesting to see how each grouping of counties compares to their presidential margins in 2020. This is what it shows:



Other than Athens-Clarke & Richmond skewing the data by being sub-30%, there's a fairly clear trend (though Bibb and Dougherty being in the 40s at the moment breaks things a tad as well; the remainder of the category was Trump +39).

[bilaps]

Dems with 9k lead in Clark with mail.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1584467450057236480

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1584467450057236480

Glorious news!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1584467450057236480

So *these* are statistically significant numbers? I never know when early vote numbers are too early to glean meaning from.

[wbrocks67]

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 838K (55.1% white - 32.8% black) —> +22.3 white

Runoff 2021:

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1584467450057236480

So *these* are statistically significant numbers? I never know when early vote numbers are too early to glean meaning from.

Yeah, for now. Confirms what we expected - it's very possible Dems lacking a bit in early in person vote in Clark because they're voting mail instead.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Does anybody have numbers from NJ and VA compared to both 2021 and 2020? They may not generalize to all states but could be helpful for two things:

A) Both states in 2021 were wave electorates (and 2 different turnout scenarios at that) in the GOP early voting paranoia era. It’d be interesting to see who is meeting/exceeding their benchmarks from 2021.

B) If comparing 2021 to 2020, was the early vote obvious that it would be a shellacking?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Per Ralston, while vote by mail came in big for the Democrats, it’s still too early to extrapolate much except that we may well be looking at a 2020 scenario where a Republican early vote lead gets wiped out by strong Democratic mail voting with the key question being whether Democrats can build up enough of a Clark County firewall with VBM to overcome the rural counties/any Republican edge in E-day voting.

[bilaps]

Nevada numbers look good for Dems.

But Florida.. It's gonna be bloodbath. Today is the first day of early voting in person and even though the counties which are optionaly open today are more democratic R's have a 20% lead. And Dems have only 47k in the bag with mail in votes as of this morning.

[It’s so Joever]

The Clark County firewall is far smaller than it was in 2020. Something to keep an eye on as the election nears.

[kwabbit]

The Clark County firewall is far smaller than it was in 2020. Something to keep an eye on as the election nears.

Don’t you need to update your username? It’s only 15 days until the slaughter at this point.

[axiomsofdominion]

The Clark County firewall is far smaller than it was in 2020. Something to keep an eye on as the election nears.

Well bro it isn't a presidential election year so less people are gonna vote.