UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Two legislative developments of note from the past few days:

The conversion therapy ban
The government have been going back and forth on a conversion therapy ban since it was included in the 2019 manifesto.

Sunak seemed to have dropped it, until last week, when ITV's Paul Brand reported that two ministers had threatened to resign unless it was included in the King's Speech, with the Chief Whip intervening to ask Sunak to take a second look.

For a few days, it seemed that a slimmed-down ban, with carve-outs for religous freedom and consensual sessions, would be announced. But reporting from last night suggests that a last minute "intensive lobbying campaign" led by Miriam Cates (who else) has killed it.

The Israel boycott ban
An idea the government has been toying with for some time is the idea of banning BDS-style boycotts in their entirety. Some groups in the Jewish community have been asking for this, and there's also an instinct that it could trigger internal arguments inside Labour. It's still a very divisive issue, and there's not a consensus on it, even within the Conservative Party.

So naturally, they've decided to put it on the agenda for this week...

Layla Moran, probably the highest-profile British Palestinian politician, has asked for it to be delayed, on sensitivity grounds. And the cabinet seems to be split - officials in the Foreign Secretary's office* have been as critical of the legislation as they can without Cleverly breaching collective responsibility, while Gove seems to be determined to force it through.

_{*The relevance of Al's comments in the Tory thread about perceptions of the Foreign Office's position on the Middle East conflict aren't lost on me.}

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here is coverage from the same exact by election from 1996:

[Torrain]

MPs will vote tomorrow afternoon for the new Chair of the Commons Defence Committee, after Tobias Elwood stood down earlier this year, in the face of a confidence motion. Candidates are:

Sarah Atherton (Conservative MP for Wrexham): 2019-intake MP, Defence & Veterans Minister for 5 weeks under Truss. Notable supporters include Foreign Affairs Chair Alicia Kearns, Caroline Nokes, Labour's Jess Phillips.

Robert Courts (Conservative MP for Witney): Replaced David Cameron as Witney's MP in 2016, represents RAF Brize Norton - and has longstanding parliamentary role scrutinising defence policy. Notable supporters include Priti Patel, Liam Fox, Labour's Chris Bryant, the SNP's Dave Doogan.

Mark Francois (Conservative MP for Rayleigh and Wickford): The archtypal "Brexit spartan", and Chair of the European Research Group. Nominated largely by Johnson allies and fellow travellers on Brexit. Notable supporters include IDS, Rees-Mogg, the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson and Sammy Wilson.

Edit: Courts elected on the first ballot, with 249/433 votes
Atherton received 142, Francois trailed on 39 - with 3 spoiled votes.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also today is the vote on suspending Peter Bone, which if passed will lead to a recall petition being opened for him.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1717138831365792250?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, that is very good for him. Fair play

[Torrain]

Ok, that's pretty good craic.

Also - someone had fun with the seating arrangement, getting all three Labour by-election winners from Tory seats in view behind Starmer.

[Torrain]

The next batch of SNP selections have been announced. Notable choices:

Stephen Gethins has been selected in Broughty Ferry and Arbroath, in a seat adjacent to his former seat of North East Fife. Quite pleased by this one - he was a good constituency MP, and is a rare foreign policy buff amongst the SNP.

In Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Jacqueline Cameron won, beating the candidate Mhairi Black risked her political career to force onto the ballot.

And in Falkirk, perennial candidate Toni Giugliano has been selected. Genuinely a minor historical figure - given his last loss led directly to the SNP-Green coalition:

• In 2016, he ran in SNP-held Edinburgh Western - and lost (to now MSP, and Scottish Lib Dem leader) Alex Cole-Hamilton. 
• Next year, he ran in SNP-held Edinburgh West - and lost (ceding the seat to Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine). 
• Then, in 2021, he ran in the ultra-marginal Holyrood constituency of Dumbarton - and lost to Labour’s Jackie Bailie (who increased her majority), depriving the SNP of their final shot at an overall Holyrood majority, as the last seat to declare.

It should be an easier ride next year. But, given his track record, it feels like tempting fate to  let him carpetbag to their safest seat…

[Coldstream]

The next batch of SNP selections have been announced. Notable choices:

Stephen Gethins has been selected in Broughty Ferry and Arbroath, in a seat adjacent to his former seat of North East Fife. Quite pleased by this one - he was a good constituency MP, and is a rare foreign policy buff amongst the SNP.

In Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Jacqueline Cameron won, beating the candidate Mhairi Black risked her political career to force onto the ballot.

And in Falkirk, perennial candidate Toni Giugliano has been selected. Genuinely a minor historical figure - given his last loss led directly to the SNP-Green coalition:

• In 2016, he ran in SNP-held Edinburgh Western - and lost (to now MSP, and Scottish Lib Dem leader) Alex Cole-Hamilton. 
• Next year, he ran in SNP-held Edinburgh West - and lost (ceding the seat to Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine). 
• Then, in 2021, he ran in the ultra-marginal Holyrood constituency of Dumbarton - and lost to Labour’s Jackie Bailie (who increased her majority), depriving the SNP of their final shot at an overall Holyrood majority, as the last seat to declare.

It should be an easier ride next year. But, given his track record, it feels like tempting fate to  let him carpetbag to their safest seat…

I‘ve not felt this optimistic about our chances of winning Falkirk since Eric Joyce glassed someone. If anyone can deliver a Labour victory in Falkirk, it’s Toni Giugliano.

[JimJamUK]

The next batch of SNP selections have been announced. Notable choices:

Stephen Gethins has been selected in Broughty Ferry and Arbroath, in a seat adjacent to his former seat of North East Fife. Quite pleased by this one - he was a good constituency MP, and is a rare foreign policy buff amongst the SNP.

Adjacent is doing a lot of work given the big firth in the middle 😁

[Torrain]

The next batch of SNP selections have been announced. Notable choices:

Stephen Gethins has been selected in Broughty Ferry and Arbroath, in a seat adjacent to his former seat of North East Fife. Quite pleased by this one - he was a good constituency MP, and is a rare foreign policy buff amongst the SNP.

Adjacent is doing a lot of work given the big firth in the middle

That’s what we built the Tay Bridge for 😉
Less than 30 minutes from St Andrews if you do it right.

We’ve just about lived down that time it collapsed. We’ll never escape McGonagall’s poem about it, but we shouldn’t - it’s my favourite crime against the English language, buttresses and all.

[CumbrianLefty]

Falkirk is actually the SNP's safest seat? Didn't know that.

[Torrain]

Falkirk is actually the SNP's safest seat? Didn't know that.

Aye - largest numerical majority in Scotland for 2019, just shy of 15,000.

Caveat is that the Labour candidate was suspended from the party for antisemitic Facebook posts, and they ended up coming third - thanks to a lot of direct Lab-SNP switches.

Only a 5,000 SNP majority in 2017, so if Falkirk CLP can break their habit of picking awful candidates, and current Labour polling holds, it may end up more competitive than Electoral Calculus etc suggest.

[JimJamUK]

Ash Regan has defected to Alba. Definitely the most ‘obvious’ defection that you sort of wonder why it hadn’t happened yet.

Alba still looks more of a paper tiger than Reform of course.

[Torrain]

Alba lost all their councillors in May, and will lose both MPs next year - so this lets them keep an elected representative until 2026 (if they last that long). Not sure how long they can keep playing this game, without winning a single seat.

On a different note -the Alba and Scottish Green conferences are both this weekend - so Regan hasn't just produced some press for Alba, she also seems to be trying to deprive her strongest political opponents of media exposure.

Updated Holyrood composition (changes with 2021 election):

• SNP: 62 (-2)
• Conservative: 31(~)
• Labour: 22 (~)
• Lib Dem: 4 (~)
• Green: 7 (-1)
• Independent: 1 (+1)
• Alba: 1 (+1)
• Presiding Officer: 1 (+1)

The coalition now holds 69/129 seats. Five rebels needed for a succesful rebellion.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Ash Regan has defected to Alba. Definitely the most ‘obvious’ defection that you sort of wonder why it hadn’t happened yet.

Alba still looks more of a paper tiger than Reform of course.

Rats swimming towards a sinking ship is a touch odd.

[lfromnj]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/oct/27/backlash-after-elon-musk-labels-scottish-first-minister-humza-yousaf-racist
Humza Yousaf being a racist and complaining about stuff being held by white people in a 95% white country despite the fact Parliament is slightly overrepresented in minorities and also the fact that he is First Minister.

[MaxQue]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/oct/27/backlash-after-elon-musk-labels-scottish-first-minister-humza-yousaf-racist
Humza Yousaf being a racist and complaining about stuff being held by white people in a 95% white country despite the fact Parliament is slightly overrepresented in minorities and also the fact that he is First Minister.

I don't think the South African who left his country because he couldn't accept rule by black people.

[Cassius]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/oct/27/backlash-after-elon-musk-labels-scottish-first-minister-humza-yousaf-racist
Humza Yousaf being a racist and complaining about stuff being held by white people in a 95% white country despite the fact Parliament is slightly overrepresented in minorities and also the fact that he is First Minister.

Scottish public life is dominated by white people because they saw Humza Yousaf and thought ‘never again’.

[afleitch]

Yousaf said;


He said this

'Some people have been surprised or taken aback by my mention on my social media that at 99 per cent of the meetings that I go to, I am the only non-white person in the room.

Why are we so surprised when the most senior positions in Scotland are filled almost exclusively by people who are white? Take my portfolio, for example. The Lord President is white, the Lord Justice Clerk is white, every High Court judge is white, the Lord Advocate is white, the Solicitor General is white, the chief constable is white, every deputy chief constable is white, every assistant chief constable is white, the head of the Law Society is white, the head of the Faculty of Advocates is white and every prison governor is white.

That is not the case only in justice. The chief medical officer is white, the chief nursing officer is white, the chief veterinary officer is white, the chief social work adviser is white and almost every trade union in the country is headed by white people. In the Scottish Government, every director general is white. Every chair of every public body is white. That is not good enough.'

What he did is make a statement of fact based on his personal experience in government. Everything he said in his speech at the time he said it, was factually true.

[JimJamUK]

Yousaf said;


He said this

'Some people have been surprised or taken aback by my mention on my social media that at 99 per cent of the meetings that I go to, I am the only non-white person in the room.

Why are we so surprised when the most senior positions in Scotland are filled almost exclusively by people who are white? Take my portfolio, for example. The Lord President is white, the Lord Justice Clerk is white, every High Court judge is white, the Lord Advocate is white, the Solicitor General is white, the chief constable is white, every deputy chief constable is white, every assistant chief constable is white, the head of the Law Society is white, the head of the Faculty of Advocates is white and every prison governor is white.

That is not the case only in justice. The chief medical officer is white, the chief nursing officer is white, the chief veterinary officer is white, the chief social work adviser is white and almost every trade union in the country is headed by white people. In the Scottish Government, every director general is white. Every chair of every public body is white. That is not good enough.'

What he did is make a statement of fact based on his personal experience in government. Everything he said in his speech at the time he said it, was factually true.

But the fact he is highlighting this suggests he thinks it is wrong, which is hard to argue given 96% of the population is White (and probably around 98% when you get to the people old enough to occupy senior positions).  

[Blair]

I see our PM has a new strategy of trying to cast himself as 'young' and future driven by going on about AI and casting Starmer as some sort of out of touch pensioner. Lets see how that goes.

[JimJamUK]

I see our PM has a new strategy of trying to cast himself as 'young' and future driven by going on about AI and casting Starmer as some sort of out of touch pensioner. Lets see how that goes.

He’s been going on about it for a while, but I’m not sure many people have noticed what positive impact he’s supposed to be having on it. More generally, the media have become obsessed with it but usually without explaining properly what it actually is or what we can do about it.

[IceAgeComing]

Sunak was also big into his crypto a few years ago (commissioned the Royal Mail to make Official NFTs a few years ago but that has since, shockingly, been canned); I suspect there's a bit of tech bro bouncing around the next big thing going on.

[afleitch]

Sunak 'reads' the same age as Starmer. So no idea why the focus on his actual age which is at William Hague-esque levels of being removed from his peers.