UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Blair]

I’ve seen a bit about the voter iD requirements coming in for the locals and a map with where people are most likely not to have photo ID- it’s going to be a disaster (as it was during the pilot) but isn’t there a very big chance it hurts Conservative voters especially in where these local elections are being held?

I’m not sure how aware they are about their own voter base…

[politicallefty]

Scotland, though, has traditionally had more influence on the UK than mere numbers would suggest. Of course, that is less true under modern Tory governments who really are mainly English based (and mostly southern England at that, the current PM holding a Yorkshire seat notwithstanding)

Whatever happens though, nationalism there isn't going to die or even majorly decline any time soon - but an erosion of the recent SNP electoral hegemony is certainly more plausible, especially if a Labour government does take power in Westminster and is well received.

I know the first referendum precedes Brexit, but I have to wonder how that has shaped the landscape in Scotland overall in terms of independence. My understanding is that an independent Scotland would have been quick to apply for EU membership.

I do wonder about a potential divide between hard nationalists and soft nationalists (and I really have no idea how large each group is). It's clear that the SNP has a firm lock on the former, but I wonder if the soft nationalists are predominantly those that hate the Tory Government in Westminster and would generally prefer to be part of the EU. I have to imagine there are serious forces within Labour that want to push for rejoining the EU (and make that part of the next campaign), but I can't imagine the leadership wants to go to Brussels with tails tucked between their legs. Electorally speaking though, it seems like there are serious inroads to be made in Scotland through such a strategy. Either way though, a Labour Government seems like it would be likely to soothe the majority in Scotland.

[Frodo]

Scotland is generally accepted as a distinct nation within the UK, though - and this has pretty much always been the case since 1707 (even at the height of "modern" unionism in the 1950s)

Yes, so that while we could conventionally never describe Scottish people as some sort of minority group even in the loosest possible sense, this is not because Scottish people were/are seen as identical to English people: it's more that once you cross the border, the majority group becomes Scottish; much as when the Monarch does they become a Presbyterian rather than an Anglican. As bizarre as this might sound to people who aren't British, it's one reason why the debate over Scotland's constitutional status has never anything like as nasty as the one in Quebec, even at its worst: there has never been this sense of Scottish people as a besieged ethnic minority.

I suspect that is due to the astute decision by the English to include the Scots as partners rather than as subjects in their imperial project soon after the Acts of Union -with the notable exception of the Jacobite Rebellions.  As a result, how the Scots viewed their role in the British Empire compared to their Irish counterparts is like night and day.  

[CumbrianLefty]

I’ve seen a bit about the voter iD requirements coming in for the locals and a map with where people are most likely not to have photo ID- it’s going to be a disaster (as it was during the pilot) but isn’t there a very big chance it hurts Conservative voters especially in where these local elections are being held?

I’m not sure how aware they are about their own voter base…

It is still quite a lot easier for over-60s to get the required ID though.

[LabourJersey]

Scotland, though, has traditionally had more influence on the UK than mere numbers would suggest. Of course, that is less true under modern Tory governments who really are mainly English based (and mostly southern England at that, the current PM holding a Yorkshire seat notwithstanding)

Whatever happens though, nationalism there isn't going to die or even majorly decline any time soon - but an erosion of the recent SNP electoral hegemony is certainly more plausible, especially if a Labour government does take power in Westminster and is well received.

I know the first referendum precedes Brexit, but I have to wonder how that has shaped the landscape in Scotland overall in terms of independence. My understanding is that an independent Scotland would have been quick to apply for EU membership.

I do wonder about a potential divide between hard nationalists and soft nationalists (and I really have no idea how large each group is). It's clear that the SNP has a firm lock on the former, but I wonder if the soft nationalists are predominantly those that hate the Tory Government in Westminster and would generally prefer to be part of the EU. I have to imagine there are serious forces within Labour that want to push for rejoining the EU (and make that part of the next campaign), but I can't imagine the leadership wants to go to Brussels with tails tucked between their legs. Electorally speaking though, it seems like there are serious inroads to be made in Scotland through such a strategy. Either way though, a Labour Government seems like it would be likely to soothe the majority in Scotland.

I personally (and I'm by no means an expert here) view that Brexit as an event which on balance makes Scottish independence less likely, not more likely.

Had Scotland voted Yes in 2014, It would have been able to work towards a "soft" border with the rest of the UK. Now they would have to deal with a hard border no matter what as they join the EU (and to become independent without joining the EU would be such a dumb move for the Scots I'm not entertaining that possibility).

Far more goods and people move across the English-Scottish border compared to what moves from Europe to Scotland, or even the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland. Couple that with however long the EU ascension process takes (i.e. how long the Spanish drag their feet) and the Scots could have some miserable years economically.

I think many Scots recognize this, especially after the years-long saga of Brexit. The exception being the pro-Independence voters whose thoughts have intensified on the matter after Brexit, but that's not a majority of voters.

[MABA 2020]

Three years today since Boris Johnson's 80 seat majority, feels like a lifetime ago

[Torrain]

Three years today since Boris Johnson's 80 seat majority, feels like a lifetime ago

Yeah - it's kinda wild.

While we're at it - tomorrow is the day that Sunak equals Truss' 49 day tenure as PM.

[Blair]

A good story that summed up the Conservative party’s political management skills since 2019 was when they tried to stitch up the selection of chair on an obscure cross party and relatively serious select committee.

They wanted Chris Grayling as chair (lol!), they spent ages trying to find new Tory MPs to nominate for the committee who would vote for him as chair, thought they had found some and then forgot to check with the most senior Tory on the committee who was then nominated to be chair and won because he and the opposition voted for him.

They then suspended the whip from him in a huff and gave it back some time later.

[Torrain]

Final PMQs of the year was fairly bland, but had a few standout moments.

Sunak produced our worst canned line (perhaps since Starmer brought up Love Island) in quite some time:  “(these strikes) are Labour’s Nightmare Before Christmas!”

Starmer turned his final question into a thanks for Commons staff. Same tactic he used last week, preventing the traditional PM filibuster via a pivot into apolitical territory. Even though it was the same as last week, Sunak was a little stiff pivoting to improvise a response, in place of whatever red meat he had planned. 

Flynn did pretty well - pretty incisive questions on energy, comparing the records of Holyrood and Westminster. As a questioner, he’s a sight more articulate than Blackford.

Even Ed Davy got a question in - and asked a rather pointed question about cancer waiting times, citing his own family experiences. First time a Lib Dem has brought a packed Commons chamber to a respectful silence in years.

[Blair]

Raaaaaab now has more complaints being investigated.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak has no real answer to the claim that Tories actually want these strikes to continue.

[JimJamUK]

Sunak has no real answer to the claim that Tories actually want these strikes to continue.

They do realise that when things are awful people blame the government, not the opposition? Best case scenario, most of the strikes die down as workers realise their bosses aren't budging and spend the next 2 years seeing their living standards getting worse, while the actual quality of public services like the NHS also gets worse as recruitment and retention continues to be abysmal.

Do they think this is going to lead to people voting Conservative?

[Torrain]

In the UK polling industry's neverending quest to divide this country into a different series of electoral "walls" we can turn into polling sub-samples, I bring you a new front - YouGov's "Sea Wall":

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1603148968556478464

Universal swing feels a bit risky for seats like Dover, and the Thanet constituencies, which seem to be agitating against immigration in a way that doesn't exactly scream marginal.

So, take with several pinches of salt, but definitely intriguing...

[Blair]

The West Country (well specifically Cornwall) results are v interesting

[YL]

The West Country (well specifically Cornwall) results are v interesting

It's just UNS applied to a subsample of constituencies, and a rather weird subsample at that [1], so not really.  I rather hope it's just a light-hearted item befitting the time of year.

That said, Labour gains in Cornwall are not implausible in a strong national result, but I'll believe TotnesSouth Devon when I see it.

[1] I mean, it includes both Bootle and Boston & Skegness.  Also, why is only one of the Hull seats included?  Because Hessle is a coastal town and Hull a coastal city?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Points for clever naming...

[Cassius]

Apparently Plymouth is no longer a coastal city, according to that map, which might present a bit of a problem for the Royal Navy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It’s seemingly based off this silly data set from the ONS, which isn’t quite so random. The distinction between coastal cities and coastal towns accounts for the weirder exclusions.

Coastal towns in England and Wales: October 2020

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently Plymouth is no longer a coastal city, according to that map, which might present a bit of a problem for the Royal Navy.

Cities don't count - thus Brighton and Bristol are also excluded, but Bournemouth gets in.

[YL]

Apparently Plymouth is no longer a coastal city, according to that map, which might present a bit of a problem for the Royal Navy.

Cities don't count - thus Brighton and Bristol are also excluded, but Bournemouth gets in.

Cities according to the data set posted by ASV above are excluded.  So Swansea, Sunderland and Southend are included, as they don't meet the ONS's population criteria for being "cities".  Hull West & Hessle is included because Hessle is counted as a separate town (as I speculated above), Hove is included because of Portslade (even though, unlike Hessle, it's within the official city boundaries), and so on.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Apparently Plymouth is no longer a coastal city, according to that map, which might present a bit of a problem for the Royal Navy.

Cities don't count - thus Brighton and Bristol are also excluded, but Bournemouth gets in.

Cities according to the data set posted by ASV above are excluded.  So Swansea, Sunderland and Southend are included, as they don't meet the ONS's population criteria for being "cities".  Hull West & Hessle is included because Hessle is counted as a separate town (as I speculated above), Hove is included because of Portslade (even though, unlike Hessle, it's within the official city boundaries), and so on.

In line with the previous towns article, to qualify for inclusion in the towns list, population must have been below 225,000 in 2011 (according to the Census) with the town boundaries used being either built-up area boundaries or built-up area subdivision boundaries. The coastal towns that are included in the article are shown in Figure 1.

[Torrain]

The Scottish Parliament sitting has been suspended by the Presiding Officer (equivalent to the Speaker), after the contents of the Financial Bill were leaked to BBC Scotland. The Bill was supposed to be introduced as we speak, but it’s been postponed by at least 30 mins while the PO investigates.

It’s a fairly uncommon step - underlining her annoyance with the leak.

[Torrain]

An annual survey of the Civil Service shows that 1/3 of the staff working at MoJ were bullied or harassed in the past year, compared to 7% the year before. The staff who reported harassment were disproportionately in Raab's direct orbit, working with him on a day-to-day basis.

[MABA 2020]

Sunak has no real answer to the claim that Tories actually want these strikes to continue.

They do realise that when things are awful people blame the government, not the opposition? Best case scenario, most of the strikes die down as workers realise their bosses aren't budging and spend the next 2 years seeing their living standards getting worse, while the actual quality of public services like the NHS also gets worse as recruitment and retention continues to be abysmal.

Do they think this is going to lead to people voting Conservative?

It boggles the mind, do they have no sense of history? Strikes can be bad for Conservative governments too, it's not all about the winter of 78.

[Blair]

A lot of Tories not only misremember Thatcher but have completely forgotten Ted Heath.

In fact the last year has been remarkably similar in some ways…