2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Gass3268]

👀 https://twitter.com/izqstrategies/status/1636473503498027008

Black vote is starting to consolidate behind Johnson, he's up 63-18.

[Gracile]

That poll is from a leftie org, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Suburbia]

I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.

It's like how Long Islanders and Hudson Valley people weigh in on New York City mayoral elections. Mayors have a No. 1 job, that is to keep people safe in the cities, whether they live in the city or suburban commuters.

A lot of Napervillians commute into Chicago for work and they probably want Vallas because he will let the cops do their jobs in patrolling the city they enter into to work and watch Cubs/Blackhawks/Bulls games....

Same thing with most suburbs outside of cities.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1636716528534970368?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1636716528534970368?s=20

Huh, I wasn't expecting this at all.

[GALeftist]

Common Chuy W. Not sure how much sway he’s got over his voters, but could be big.

[coloradocowboi]

Not a fan of national figures inserting themselves into local races.

I feel like if the two candidates are both on the same wave length, they should stay out, but this race is basically a Republican vs. D so I don't see why they would.

The voters can’t figure that out for themselves?

No because Paul Vallas is on the air lying about his beliefs and records with billionaire money. I don’t get why people are so confident about this guy. I’m getting Caruso vibes.

As for the “local alderman matter more than Bernie or Clyburn” argument, that’s just flat out false. Local alderman motivates nobody’s vote. They might nudge an undecided one way or another, but nobody is gonna be like my corrupt local representative who won with about 10-15% of voters in any given district is why I’m gonna decide to vote a certain way. National figures draw attention from people who are tuned out, on the other hand, and in Chicago that means young voters who had miserable turnout in the first round. This is actually exactly how Karen Bass crushed Caruso actually. If not for young, progressive renters she would’ve lost

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1636716528534970368?s=20

I'm surprised by this. Pretty big get for Johnson; I assumed Chuy would have just stayed out.

[Mr. Illini]

Not a fan of national figures inserting themselves into local races.

I feel like if the two candidates are both on the same wave length, they should stay out, but this race is basically a Republican vs. D so I don't see why they would.

The voters can’t figure that out for themselves?

No because Paul Vallas is on the air lying about his beliefs and records with billionaire money. I don’t get why people are so confident about this guy. I’m getting Caruso vibes.

As for the “local alderman matter more than Bernie or Clyburn” argument, that’s just flat out false. Local alderman motivates nobody’s vote. They might nudge an undecided one way or another, but nobody is gonna be like my corrupt local representative who won with about 10-15% of voters in any given district is why I’m gonna decide to vote a certain way. National figures draw attention from people who are tuned out, on the other hand, and in Chicago that means young voters who had miserable turnout in the first round. This is actually exactly how Karen Bass crushed Caruso actually. If not for young, progressive renters she would’ve lost

Bernie will turn out young people who are difficult to turn out, but aldermanic endorsements definitely matter, especially in majority Black wards. Aldermen have a significant amount of influence over politics in their ward, and most are not as unpopular as you are characterizing. They also run the turnout operations in their wards.

Black alderpeople endorsing Vallas will chip away at Johnson’s margins in Black wards, which he needs to be solid if he’s got any chance of winning.

This is not a Presidential election.

[gerritcole]

How much will the post st paddy’s day ethnic white bump be for vallas

[Bismarck]

Chuy endorsement is big. This race is going to be close I think. Im starting to get the feeling Johnson will win.

[coloradocowboi]

Not a fan of national figures inserting themselves into local races.

I feel like if the two candidates are both on the same wave length, they should stay out, but this race is basically a Republican vs. D so I don't see why they would.

The voters can’t figure that out for themselves?

No because Paul Vallas is on the air lying about his beliefs and records with billionaire money. I don’t get why people are so confident about this guy. I’m getting Caruso vibes.

As for the “local alderman matter more than Bernie or Clyburn” argument, that’s just flat out false. Local alderman motivates nobody’s vote. They might nudge an undecided one way or another, but nobody is gonna be like my corrupt local representative who won with about 10-15% of voters in any given district is why I’m gonna decide to vote a certain way. National figures draw attention from people who are tuned out, on the other hand, and in Chicago that means young voters who had miserable turnout in the first round. This is actually exactly how Karen Bass crushed Caruso actually. If not for young, progressive renters she would’ve lost

Bernie will turn out young people who are difficult to turn out, but aldermanic endorsements definitely matter, especially in majority Black wards. Aldermen have a significant amount of influence over politics in their ward, and most are not as unpopular as you are characterizing. They also run the turnout operations in their wards.

Black alderpeople endorsing Vallas will chip away at Johnson’s margins in Black wards, which he needs to be solid if he’s got any chance of winning.

This is not a Presidential election.

My point is that: 1. Their turnout operations suck, as evidenced by how bad turnout is in these elections. 2. Do you actually think the average person in any majority Black ward in Chicago is more likely to know their alderman before they know Kwame Raoul? And of the people that do, how many were realistic voters for Johnson anyway?

The pro-business, pro-cop, anti-leftist establishment is coming out for Vallas like it did Caruso and Eric Adams, and as evidenced by the latter this can win an election in a low turnout environment. But the former is a massive warning, and maybe a little more pertinent because Paul Vallas is a white guy and has a pretty gruesome record even to center left folks.

No matter what happens, Johnson loses in a low turnout environment. The idea that Roderick Sawyer is going to move more than like a few dozen to one hundred votes, and these votes will be decisive is pretty implausible to me. Or at least definitely less plausible than Bernie Sanders motivating a few thousand Zillennials to get out to vote.

I'm not even saying Vallas won't cut into Johnson's support in the Black community. But the same people who think he has moderate Black voters locked up are the people who said Lacy Clay couldn't ever be primaried, that Black men would vote against Karen Bass because she's too far left... Sure, all Black people aren't like BLM activists, but they definitely aren't like "secret conservatives" either. Like most Americans, they vote based on various kinds of deliberation and I think a person who has said the things Vallas has said, and more importantly disadvantaged Black children in CPS to the extent he has, has a much higher hill to climb than folks here think. He can't even bank on winning white people, and nobody knows how Hispanics are gonna swing. The idea that it's like a flashing warning sign though that a bunch of bought and paid for nobodies who have at most won a few ten thousand votes in barely contested, barely noticed elections is gonna be what breaks him through though is pretty wild to me.

What will break him through, possibly, is if the Chicago media insists on fearmongering about crime and citing these endorsements as evidence that Black people want "tough on crime" policies. Of course, this messaging will be above all effective with white voters anyway who wanna vote for Vallas and not feel racist

[warandwar]

How much will the post st paddy’s day ethnic white bump be for vallas

Post st paddy's day the type of person you mention will be a few brain cells shorter and more likely to forget to vote.
Tossup -> Lean Brandon

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

It's all coming together.

[Horus]

If I lived in Chicago that endorsement would probably convince me to vote Johnson, sub par and corny as he is. Chuy seems like one of the only reasonable, non corrupt people in Chicago politics.

[Mr. Illini]

I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.

[Illiniwek]

I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.

It's like how Long Islanders and Hudson Valley people weigh in on New York City mayoral elections. Mayors have a No. 1 job, that is to keep people safe in the cities, whether they live in the city or suburban commuters.

A lot of Napervillians commute into Chicago for work and they probably want Vallas because he will let the cops do their jobs in patrolling the city they enter into to work and watch Cubs/Blackhawks/Bulls games....

Same thing with most suburbs outside of cities.

Yes, yes we do.

I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.

You know you love us

[Bismarck]

Do we have data or estimates of the racial composition of the electorate? Seems Vallas will win whites by a solid but not landslide margin, win Asians in a landslide, and Johnson will win blacks pretty heavily and Hispanics seem to be split but maybe leaning Johnson of Chuys endorsement matters as much as people think. I wonder what percentage of the electorate will fall into those four groups though given a normal level of turnout. Does anybody have any thoughts on this?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Do we have data or estimates of the racial composition of the electorate? Seems Vallas will win whites by a solid but not landslide margin, win Asians in a landslide, and Johnson will win blacks pretty heavily and Hispanics seem to be split but maybe leaning Johnson of Chuys endorsement matters as much as people think. I wonder what percentage of the electorate will fall into those four groups though given a normal level of turnout. Does anybody have any thoughts on this?

Wouldn't be surprised if Vallas does better with Asians than any other racial group (I have no on-the-ground knowledge of Chicago proper), but the Chuy endorsement makes me think it won't be a landslide. Would be curious to see how turnout and percentage margins differ in subordinate-class enclaves versus areas with more upscale and highly educated Asians.

[Bismarck]

Do we have data or estimates of the racial composition of the electorate? Seems Vallas will win whites by a solid but not landslide margin, win Asians in a landslide, and Johnson will win blacks pretty heavily and Hispanics seem to be split but maybe leaning Johnson of Chuys endorsement matters as much as people think. I wonder what percentage of the electorate will fall into those four groups though given a normal level of turnout. Does anybody have any thoughts on this?

Wouldn't be surprised if Vallas does better with Asians than any other racial group (I have no on-the-ground knowledge of Chicago proper), but the Chuy endorsement makes me think it won't be a landslide. Would be curious to see how turnout and percentage margins differ in subordinate-class enclaves versus areas with more upscale and highly educated Asians.

I’m just going off of the first round where Chinatown was one of his best areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Do we have data or estimates of the racial composition of the electorate? Seems Vallas will win whites by a solid but not landslide margin, win Asians in a landslide, and Johnson will win blacks pretty heavily and Hispanics seem to be split but maybe leaning Johnson of Chuys endorsement matters as much as people think. I wonder what percentage of the electorate will fall into those four groups though given a normal level of turnout. Does anybody have any thoughts on this?

Wouldn't be surprised if Vallas does better with Asians than any other racial group (I have no on-the-ground knowledge of Chicago proper), but the Chuy endorsement makes me think it won't be a landslide. Would be curious to see how turnout and percentage margins differ in subordinate-class enclaves versus areas with more upscale and highly educated Asians.

I’m just going off of the first round where Chinatown was one of his best areas.

Yeah but thats just the enclave. You got the same amount in non-Chinatown Downtown/Central areas and nearly 3x as many Asians live across the far North Side - notably south of Lincolnwood.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/Brandon4Chicago/status/1637811813487194115?s=20

This is a big deal. Presumably his wife, the city Treasurer, will do the same, since they are a political unit.

Bucks the trend of establishment Black alderpeople endorsing Vallas.

[wbrocks67]

Johnson really seems to have the momentum in the last week or two. I think he may actually be slightly favored at this point.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/Brandon4Chicago/status/1637811813487194115?s=20

This is a big deal. Presumably his wife, the city Treasurer, will do the same, since they are a political unit.

Bucks the trend of establishment Black alderpeople endorsing Vallas.

It's smart politics tbh. They can control Johnson, but getting Vallas elected is basically like letting the GOP donor base decide Chicago's policy agenda. Tbh I would not be thrilled about either of these options either, but Johnson is actually the safe choice despite his weird and probably misguided insistence that he's gonna actually defund the police lol

My point is that: 1. Their turnout operations suck, as evidenced by how bad turnout is in these elections. 2. Do you actually think the average person in any majority Black ward in Chicago is more likely to know their alderman before they know Kwame Raoul? And of the people that do, how many were realistic voters for Johnson anyway?

You're posing this like you think the answer is obvious. Why do you think people would be more aware of random state row officers than the mayor of their community? Where have you lived that this is possibly the case?

The answer is obvious to me. No matter how you measure it, Americans know national and state politicians by name recognition far more than local politicians. And, again, those who do care about their alderman's endorsement were prolly insider, high income, older voters who may not be up for grabs anyway. At this point though, it looks like the insider game is also breaking for Johnson anyway

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

At this point I think whoever wins will do so by less than 5%, maybe even less than 2%