Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Gass3268]

No only lost by 5 points in Finney County in Western Kansas. No did pretty well in the heavy Hispanic counties.

[Pollster]

There are very few ballot measures/campaigns in general that I have been more proud to be a part of the polling team for.

[DrScholl]

The result is not surprising and running it in November wouldn't have changed the results. Republicans expected a typical R-D divide on the issue but they failed to understand that some of their voters do not want to ban abortion.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  

Higher turnout probably doomed this referendum; sneaking it past voters in August (when there's no big Democratic race to vote for and nothing besides abortion on the ballot for independents) was supposed to produce optimal turnout for pro-lifers. It didn't work.

Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

I'm more shocked that the constitutional right to an abortion failed by just 5 points in blood red, Bible belt Tennessee. That, to me, is a big indication of how these votes will play out in the future.

-I agree that turnout was higher than they anticipated.  The thing is that not all higher turnout is created equally.  I suspect that the increased turnout was fairly one-sided (also look at how many votes were cast in a virtually uncontested Democratic primary).  On the other hand, it would have been high on both sides in November.

-Tennessee's was somewhat closer than you might have expected, but you have to remember that it was outspent like 3:1 (mostly from pro-choice organizations from outside the state), so the referendum was facing major headwinds.  That wasn't as big of an issue in 2018 in Alabama, when it ran very close to the gubernatorial race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  

Higher turnout probably doomed this referendum; sneaking it past voters in August (when there's no big Democratic race to vote for and nothing besides abortion on the ballot for independents) was supposed to produce optimal turnout for pro-lifers. It didn't work.

Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

I'm more shocked that the constitutional right to an abortion failed by just 5 points in blood red, Bible belt Tennessee. That, to me, is a big indication of how these votes will play out in the future.

And the one in West Virginia passed by just 3 points in 2018.

[It’s so Joever]

What this tells me is that the red wave will be through a lot of GOP support but NOT a lack of Democratic support.

[perpetual_cynic]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  

Higher turnout probably doomed this referendum; sneaking it past voters in August (when there's no big Democratic race to vote for and nothing besides abortion on the ballot for independents) was supposed to produce optimal turnout for pro-lifers. It didn't work.

Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

I'm more shocked that the constitutional right to an abortion failed by just 5 points in blood red, Bible belt Tennessee. That, to me, is a big indication of how these votes will play out in the future.

And the one in West Virginia passed by just 3 points in 2018.

It is possible that the wording including rape and incest cases inflated the "NO" vote? I think the results would have been closer without that language.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

Yes, there's an enthusiasm gap on abortion right now- with one side basking and celebrating an accomplishment, while the other side is fired up to vote (the reverse was true for the last 50 years).  But, I think I also underestimated how much less pro-life non-Southern (mostly non-evangelical) Republicans are to the ones that I'm familiar with and that helped pass this same amendment in recent cycles in three Southern states.

I'm guessing that the late ballots make it more like 60-40 and that it might have been 55-45 in November, but this is a massively disappointing result.  I truly expected to see that it had passed when I looked up the results as I left a young adults ministry tonight.

And got over 60% in Louisiana!  The South is a different ballgame.  I have little doubt the Kentucky amendment will also pass.  Every Southern state other than Virginia will probably have a 6 week or stricter ban next year (pending NC supermajority). 

Republicans outside the South should still take the opportunity to limit abortion more than Roe allowed. However, there is evidently a real risk of a revolt by libertarian/anti-lockdown type voters if a total ban is on the table.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  

Higher turnout probably doomed this referendum; sneaking it past voters in August (when there's no big Democratic race to vote for and nothing besides abortion on the ballot for independents) was supposed to produce optimal turnout for pro-lifers. It didn't work.

Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

I'm more shocked that the constitutional right to an abortion failed by just 5 points in blood red, Bible belt Tennessee. That, to me, is a big indication of how these votes will play out in the future.

And the one in West Virginia passed by just 3 points in 2018.

It is possible that the wording including rape and incest cases inflated the "NO" vote? I think the results would have been closer without that language.

For sure.  There's no doubt that that wording hurt here (and contributed to closer margins in past ones), but I get why it's included if you want there to be no ambiguity (legally) in what it means should it pass.

[Devout Centrist]

-I agree that turnout was higher than they anticipated.  The thing is that not all higher turnout is created equally.  I suspect that the increased turnout was fairly one-sided (also look at how many votes were cast in a virtually uncontested Democratic primary).  On the other hand, it would have been high on both sides in November.

But there was a big crossover vote from Republicans here anyhow - I don't see how higher Republican turnout fixes that problem.

-Tennessee's was somewhat closer than you might have expected, but you have to remember that it was outspent like 3:1 (mostly from pro-choice organizations from outside the state), so the referendum was facing major headwinds.  That wasn't as big of an issue in 2018 in Alabama, when it ran very close to the gubernatorial race.

Many a gay marriage ban was outspent back in the day. None of that matter much.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1554664237326376960?s=20&t=Oi_r6pxe-IiW...

[libertpaulian]

The dog finally caught the car.

[Hope For A New Era]

A lot has already been said, so here's a new one.

I've done some quick math to get a rough estimate of how Sharice Davids's new district voted.

It voted 67% No. And that's WITHOUT including the portion of Wyandotte County within the district.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot has already been said, so here's a new one.

I've done some quick math to get a rough estimate of how Sharice Davids's new district voted.

It voted 67% No. And that's WITHOUT including the portion of Wyandotte County within the district.

Ye if Davids runs on the issues, she's got a good chance of holding on even in a bad year.

[Gass3268]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November like it appears they are going for?

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

[Хahar 🤔]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

It'll be interesting to look at the turnout data when we have everything in. If the data bear out what you're suggesting, that would be the first time I can think of that the pro-abortion side had an advantage in enthusiasm. I'm inclined to favor a different explanation, which is that the anti-abortion side was motivated as usual but there just aren't enough anti-abortion voters in Kansas. We know that anti-abortion voters turn out at much higher rates than pro-abortion voters (or, as an alternate framing, reliable voters oppose abortion at much higher rates than occasional voters), as a result of which higher turnout is basically always good for the pro-abortion side. It's hard for me to imagine that holding this referendum at the same time as a high-profile gubernatorial election would have turned out better.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November like it appears they are going for?

If tonight's results are anything to go off of, a hypothetical anti-abortion referendum could lose by at least 30 points in PA and the GOP would be stupid to pursue one here... but alas, this is the PAGOP we're talking about.

[Lief 🗽]

There are very few ballot measures/campaigns in general that I have been more proud to be a part of the polling team for.

I'm sure you're not allowed to tell us, but hearing about how the polling changed for this over the last couple of weeks would be fascinating.

[Tartarus Sauce]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

[TPIG]

Sad to see these results, tonight. We have a long way to go before the cultural acclimation to and acceptance of unborn murder is, in any way, diminished.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

[PSOL]

Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

The polls undercount the working class who live in either cities or exurbs, something pretty evident among most pollsters at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

In light of this, does the Kentucky no right to abortion referendum still pass in November?  I would say yes, but substantially trailing Trump's vote.

Probably, but do Pennsylvania Republicans really want this on the ballot in November?

No, but Georgia Republicans might.

I'm not following what makes you think abortion would HELP Republicans as an issue in Georgia when the main takeaway from tonight is how much of a millstone the issue is going to be for the party in the coming years in vast swaths of the country if they don't tamp down their image with the public as being out of touch extremists on the matter.

I think it plays differently in the South.  Variations on the Kansas amendment routinely pass when put on the ballot in Southern states.