Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No's margin shrunk but by just 63 votes: https://www.galvnews.com/news_ap/texas/article_9979d408-b72a-5726-a92c-e704e148c160.html

[nclib]

Great news. Not that surprising. Even if plenty of Americans identify as pro-life, many do not want it as an absolute, and at all costs.

Comparing no-yes margins to Biden/Trump margins:

Highest:

Greenwood   61.1%
Osage   57.2%
Elk   56.7%
Russell   53.8%
Hamilton   53.7%

Lowest:

Wichita   11.3%
Nemaha   16.2%
Wyandotte      17.1%
Washington   17.5%
Gove   19.1%

Anyone have any explanations for any of these? Wyandotte is expected, and Russell was Bob Dole's home county.

[Cashew]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

[Hope For A New Era]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

Supreme Court is appointed in Kansas. No elections.

The way a ruling reversal is prevented is by re-electing Kelly, who has appointed three of the seven justices currently on the court. There are also two still on the court from the governorship of Kathleen Sebelius, who was the only governor in state history to appoint a majority of the court (two of the four she appointed have since retired).

A Republican state with a 5D-2R court.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1569996369242488833

Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/tweet
Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

I've said it before, but it'd be very amusing if there's all this anxiety about GOP polling errors when Dems could end up benefiting the most.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1569996369242488833

Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

That's all great, I just hope it can translate to candidate vs. candidate elections too. The special elections have suggested that is the case, but will the alleged GOP election day turnout surge negate that?

/tweet
Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

I've said it before, but it'd be very amusing if there's all this anxiety about GOP polling errors when Dems could end up benefiting the most.

That would be glorious, but it's better to be cautious than overconfident. Overconfidence by the GOP is what is putting the midterm environment in such contention right now after all.

[Hope For A New Era]

/tweet
Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

I've said it before, but it'd be very amusing if there's all this anxiety about GOP polling errors when Dems could end up benefiting the most.

That would be glorious, but it's better to be cautious than overconfident. Overconfidence by the GOP is what is putting the midterm environment in such contention right now after all.

I refuse to entertain the notion after all that speculation in October 2020 that polls could be underestimating Democrats somehow. I will not set myself up to be burned like that again. It's considerably more plausible now than it was then, but I still refuse.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

Supreme Court is appointed in Kansas. No elections.

The way a ruling reversal is prevented is by re-electing Kelly, who has appointed three of the seven justices currently on the court. There are also two still on the court from the governorship of Kathleen Sebelius, who was the only governor in state history to appoint a majority of the court (two of the four she appointed have since retired).

A Republican state with a 5D-2R court.

They still have to win retention elections.  Kelly's appointees are all up for retention this fall.  If they lose and she loses, Schmidt gets to appoint replacements and the court will be 5R/2D (and would almost surely reverse the 2019 abortion decision ASAP). 

[Hope For A New Era]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

Supreme Court is appointed in Kansas. No elections.

The way a ruling reversal is prevented is by re-electing Kelly, who has appointed three of the seven justices currently on the court. There are also two still on the court from the governorship of Kathleen Sebelius, who was the only governor in state history to appoint a majority of the court (two of the four she appointed have since retired).

A Republican state with a 5D-2R court.

They still have to win retention elections.  Kelly's appointees are all up for retention this fall.  If they lose and she loses, Schmidt gets to appoint replacements and the court will be 5R/2D (and would almost surely reverse the 2019 abortion decision ASAP). 

Voters aren't smart enough to do that on their own. Republicans would have to explicitly campaign for nonretention of the judges, and then they'd have to win (and win by enough to overcome the fact that a lot of voters simply don't care - many always vote retain or don't retain without paying attention, or always just leave that part of the ballot blank).
They haven't done the first and they're looking increasingly unlikely to do the second.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anybody know what is going on with the supreme court races? it would be a shame for this amendment to be defeated only for the supreme court to reverse it's 2019 ruling.

Supreme Court is appointed in Kansas. No elections.

The way a ruling reversal is prevented is by re-electing Kelly, who has appointed three of the seven justices currently on the court. There are also two still on the court from the governorship of Kathleen Sebelius, who was the only governor in state history to appoint a majority of the court (two of the four she appointed have since retired).

A Republican state with a 5D-2R court.

They still have to win retention elections.  Kelly's appointees are all up for retention this fall.  If they lose and she loses, Schmidt gets to appoint replacements and the court will be 5R/2D (and would almost surely reverse the 2019 abortion decision ASAP). 

Judges almost always win retention unless there's some huge scandal (this is a rule for basically every state where there are retentions).