Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

BOOM

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554639811595669505?s=20&t=AqwGAkw9qt8...

[kcguy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554636579049771009?s=20&t=9JkrBQOvdV_...

I'm not sure if it's completely relevant, but I think Hays is one of the most Catholic parts of Kansas.

[Tintrlvr]

Another county is done now, too: Chase County. Chase County is a very rural county near Emporia; the towns in it are too small to merit mention. It was 75-23 Trump in 2020, but only 52-48 Yes. That swing needless to say would mean a landslide victory for No statewide if repeated overall. I assume it will be an outlier in swinging towards No, which is somewhat surprising for such a rural county, but I suppose counties with very few voters are more likely to behave randomly.

[fluffypanther19]

BOOM

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554639811595669505?s=20&t=AqwGAkw9qt8...

i feel like republicans are really going to underperform in the fall due to backing deeply unpopular decisions and absolutely awful candidates

regardless great result tonight

[Devout Centrist]

Chase is fully in: 52-48 Yes; was Trump 75-25. Stick a fork in it.

[Person Man]

BOOM

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554639811595669505?s=20&t=AqwGAkw9qt8...

Having a freedom of choice state in the middle of the county is the biggest іди до біса I can think of to the Republican Party and Justice Alito.

[Tintrlvr]

Anderson County also done. 77-21 Trump, 59-41 Yes. In line with Ellis, not quite as bad for Yes as Chase, but still clearly in line with a strong No victory.

[Gass3268]

Johnson just dropped 120,970 votes, 72-28 no

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Johnson just dropped 120,970 votes, 72-28 no

So beautiful.

[Person Man]

Johnson just dropped 120,970 votes, 72-28 no

So beautiful.

That’s a huge middle finger. People in Kansas City will be happy.

[7,052,770]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

Sure, but who would vote differently on the two? Is there anyone out there who opposes a ban but would vote Yes to amend the Constitution to make a ban possible? Or even less likely, vice versa?

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

Sure, but who would vote differently on the two? Is there anyone out there who opposes a ban but would vote Yes to amend the Constitution to make a ban possible? Or even less likely, vice versa?

Maybe enough to explain half of the difference with the rest being the extreme partisan swing from 2004 to 2006. That alone explains half.

[ilikeverin]

Reno County, 65-32 Trump, is 52-48 No with 94% reporting. This is enormous and monumental. Screw you, SCOTUS.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554636579049771009?s=20&t=9JkrBQOvdV_...

I'm not sure if it's completely relevant, but I think Hays is one of the most Catholic parts of Kansas.

There’s a big ass Catholic Church there on exit 160 or something on I-70. The second half of Kansas actually feels pretty creepy with how vacant it is.

[PSOL]

Many people will be on suicide watch from these results. Amazing folks, So. Much. Winning!!!!!

[politicallefty]

Shawnee (Topeka) 66-34 NO (>95% reporting). It was Biden 50-47 in 2020.

[Gass3268]

Leavenworth was Trump +21 and is now No +21!

[It’s so Joever]

Ellis is a bit more YES than before.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BrianAmos/status/1554651248456073216?s=20&t=qOki26VbHZgT...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Many people will be on suicide watch from these results. Amazing folks, So. Much. Winning!!!!!

Haven't seen any blue avs sticking their noses into this thread quite yet 👀

[politicallefty]

Johnson County 69-31 NO with >95% in. Over 212k total votes.

I'm thinking this is going down by somewhere between 15-20%.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Any chance Warren wins the AG race against Kobach?  Pretty close currently, but idk if that changes.

[Gass3268]

No almost won in Seward County, which is home to Liberal Kansas way out in Western Kansas.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

Yes, there's an enthusiasm gap on abortion right now- with one side basking and celebrating an accomplishment, while the other side is fired up to vote (the reverse was true for the last 50 years).  But, I think I also underestimated how much less pro-life non-Southern (mostly non-evangelical) Republicans are to the ones that I'm familiar with and that helped pass this same amendment in recent cycles in three Southern states.

I'm guessing that the late ballots make it more like 60-40 and that it might have been 55-45 in November, but this is a massively disappointing result.  I truly expected to see that it had passed when I looked up the results as I left a young adults ministry tonight.

[Devout Centrist]

I wonder if we would have been better off having this referendum in November.  It probably wouldn't have passed this year in Kansas, but I'm guessing that there was a bit of an enthusiasm gap in voting on this (especially with polls having showed yes ahead).  If it had been in November, turnout would have been higher across the board.  

Higher turnout probably doomed this referendum; sneaking it past voters in August (when there's no big Democratic race to vote for and nothing besides abortion on the ballot for independents) was supposed to produce optimal turnout for pro-lifers. It didn't work.

Remember that virtually identical amendments passed in Tennessee (despite being badly outspent), Alabama, and West Virginia.

I'm more shocked that the constitutional right to an abortion failed by just 5 points in blood red, Bible belt Tennessee. That, to me, is a big indication of how these votes will play out in the future.