Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[wbrocks67]

The fact that we're talking about multiple large counties that had higher *Democratic* turnout than Republicans is just... stunning, for an August off year primary in Kansas.

The "in power" party this year is not sitting these elections out.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1554657144057782274

To be fair (in two-way modeling), the RV share of Riley is 58.54% R, 41.46% D; turnout this week was 57.20% R, 42.80% D. That's less than a 3-point shift between VR and turnout in favor of Ds between the two parties. Not bad given the environment, but not a huge overall shift given it was almost all a drop-off of unaffiliated participation.

If you want to include those not registered with either of the two major parties in Riley: Democrats were 34.89% of turnout versus 27.96% among RVs; GOP was 46.62% versus 39.46%, respectively. Both parties comprised 6-7 points more of the electorate relative to registration share. Nonpartisan RV share is 32.58% versus a turnout share of 18.49% on Tuesday.

So yeah: registered D turnout spiked. However, that's not the best indicator of what self-described "independents" or unaffiliated voters may do with regard to candidates (as opposed to ballot initiatives/amendments/issues) in November - especially when they will be a substantially larger and more representative share of the electorate.

Not really talking about vote share of the county, just talking about turnout. Specifically here, in a college area, in early August, when you should probably see a horrific turnout among Ds with colleges still not in session. Instead, Ds voted at a higher rate than Rs. That's significant.

[GALeftist]

With respect to the turnout thing, I think we probably just live in an era of high turnout now. There have been a couple of mostly inconsequential primaries with low turnout, but for the most part they've been breaking records, and the stakes couldn't be higher for this referendum. In this day and age if something important is on the ballot people will show up.

[wbrocks67]

With respect to the turnout thing, I think we probably just live in an era of high turnout now. There have been a couple of mostly inconsequential primaries with low turnout, but for the most part they've been breaking records, and the stakes couldn't be higher for this referendum. In this day and age if something important is on the ballot people will show up.

True, which I think is a major point that most pundits are not realizing about these midterms in particular.

Most midterms - generally - have the opposing side win b/c the party in power just does not show up. That's usually how it goes. This year, that seems that it will not be the case, and that completely scrambles the calculus. It feels like pundits are still living in 2014 and can't comprehend the complexities and nuances of this era we're in.

Most are still banking on the "well it's a D midterm so Rs will win just because that's how it's always gone". And sure, it could. But the likelihood of that is much, much less this year because of many circumstances than it usually would.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes counted. Too bad it couldn't hit 1M overall!

NO: 538,420 (58.9%)
YES: 375,860 (41.1%)
= 914,280

[Person Man]

It lost 19 points in a state where the last Republican overperformed the NPV by 19. In 2006, the last “similar” vote lost by 12 in a state that again overvoted Republican by 19. What’s even more interesting is that 2022 is, gun to my head, a R+3 year and 2006 was D+9. This thing should have been a barn burner but instead lost by 19.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It lost 19 points in a state where the last Republican overperformed the NPV by 19. In 2006, the last “similar” vote lost by 12 in a state that again overvoted Republican by 19. What’s even more interesting is that 2022 is, gun to my head, a R+3 year and 2006 was D+9. This thing should have been a barn burner but instead lost by 19.

2006 was a completely different time.

Firstly, you didn't have spontaneous media the way we do today, meaning that back then you likely had a much larger chunk of folks who didn't even know it was on the ballot. I think that really helped no in this case.

Furthermore, I tend to believe as is the case on most social issues, the country overall has slowly grown more liberal on abortion.

[wbrocks67]

I'm certainly feeling much better about Sharice Davids' chances in the fall though now. And cautiously optimistic about Kelly.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Something that I think hasn’t been discussed much is how Dems are far more unified in their support of abortion than R’s are in their opposition of it. We’ve mentioned the pro-choice republicans crossing over but I also think these ballot measures are hindered by the fact that average Dem enthusiasm for the issue is higher than the average R enthusiasm for it.

The R base gets the reputation for being hard core pro-life but that only comes from a small-ish minority of the party, compared to Dems who are pretty much uniformly for it. There are a lot of right wing low propensity voters who might be casually pro-life or they think abortion isn’t a nice thing but still have a nuanced opinion of what the policy should be (I know someone like this actually). These people would never be turned off by a politician’s opinion on it but are hard to get to turn out for a primary/referendum.

What this means for this year is probably that Dems will be motivated anywhere that the issue is remotely considered to be on the ballot, and R’s will need people to turn out for other reasons to have a good chance

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes counted. Too bad it couldn't hit 1M overall!

NO: 538,420 (58.9%)
YES: 375,860 (41.1%)
= 914,280

We now have a nice clean number, folks

NO 542,349 (59.0%)
YES 377,415 (41.0%)
= 919,764

[Progressive Pessimist]

Something that I think hasn’t been discussed much is how Dems are far more unified in their support of abortion than R’s are in their opposition of it. We’ve mentioned the pro-choice republicans crossing over but I also think these ballot measures are hindered by the fact that average Dem enthusiasm for the issue is higher than the average R enthusiasm for it.

The R base gets the reputation for being hard core pro-life but that only comes from a small-ish minority of the party, compared to Dems who are pretty much uniformly for it. There are a lot of right wing low propensity voters who might be casually pro-life or they think abortion isn’t a nice thing but still have a nuanced opinion of what the policy should be (I know someone like this actually). These people would never be turned off by a politician’s opinion on it but are hard to get to turn out for a primary/referendum.

What this means for this year is probably that Dems will be motivated anywhere that the issue is remotely considered to be on the ballot, and R’s will need people to turn out for other reasons to have a good chance

Republican politicians appear ignorant to the nuance that is found among most Americans on the issue, including their own base. Roe v. Wade allowed for this, to a degree, to be reflected in policy but now without it some states are going gung-ho in removing all nuance from their abortion policies and it's very much not what most of their residents want, I think it can be suggested. The issue is just that some voters are apathetic to voting on it as a priority and so will remain silent on whether they disagree or not.

But this referendum providing an outlet for that expression does back up the fact that Americans to some extent, often varying extents, still believe abortion should be legal in some capacity.

[Gass3268]

Seward County in West Kansas flipped to No!

https://twitter.com/KathleenAlonso_/status/1556679670384427015?s=20&t=SMC8NC...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's Recount Time: https://share.smartnews.com/goZSz

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's Recount Time: https://share.smartnews.com/goZSz

Oh for the love of God. These people seriously cannot process the fact that not everyone agrees with their views and values. If something doesn't go their way, it must be because of voter fraud, not because a majority of people are on the other side

[MaxQue]

It's Recount Time: https://share.smartnews.com/goZSz

Oh for the love of God. These people seriously cannot process the fact that not everyone agrees with their views and values. If something doesn't go their way, it must be because of voter fraud, not because a majority of people are on the other side

Oh no, that's fine, they need to come up with 234000$ in cash to pay for it. The Kansas SoS already declined payment by credit card on Friday and in assets this morning, according to news reports.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's Recount Time: https://share.smartnews.com/goZSz

Oh for the love of God. These people seriously cannot process the fact that not everyone agrees with their views and values. If something doesn't go their way, it must be because of voter fraud, not because a majority of people are on the other side

Oh no, that's fine, they need to come up with 234000$ in cash to pay for it. The Kansas SoS already declined payment by credit card on Friday and in assets this morning, according to news reports.

Well, that's good. But the fact that someone is even trying to initiate it and has already raised a couple thousand dollars from other people is still baffling to me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

🤡 🤡 🤡

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1559316797572128772?s=20&t=ErE43y6F5_p...

[ProgressiveModerate]

🤡 🤡 🤡

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1559316797572128772?s=20&t=ErE43y6F5_p...

Watch it pad "No" lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who has a credit card with (at least) a $120,000 limit?

[MaxQue]

Who has a credit card with (at least) a $120,000 limit?

Credit cards were not allowed by the SoS, they tried last week (the Republican Party Assembly, which is a far-right group with no real link to the party).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/miyashay/status/1559531084911624195?s=20&t=BlYJeqjtwbTjB...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Are they ever gonna release a Gov poll

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/miyashay/status/1559531084911624195?s=20&t=BlYJeqjtwbTjB...

It's their money, I guess. But holy hell is this stupid.

[Nutmeg]

If the Deep State of Kansas fraudulently gave the election away, why would a recount of the same turn out any differently

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/miyashay/status/1559531084911624195?s=20&t=BlYJeqjtwbTjB...

A fool and his money are soon parted. Hope he's able to look back fondly on this moment when he's broke.

[GALeftist]

They should give me one morbillion dollars instead. Would do exactly as much to end abortion in Kansas.