Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Person Man]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

IDK what you're talking about. I called Youngkin winning before the polls closed, it was nothing like this. When even Lurker stops dooming based on encouraging signs and you keep on dooming on anyway... I mean come on, man.

Let me try to talk Doomer. I know we’re not that lucky, but we’re not that unlucky.

[It’s so Joever]

I am not dooming or blooming. I am stating what I see. I did a more thorough search (about every public story in Kansas in the past day, it took a while) and found that the unexpectedly high turnout is more or less a universal trend by district, with little variation. I do find that NO has lots of support while YES has practically none from the ones which were explicit about voting preference. Whether that is a good indicator of possible momentum/enthusiasm is your call. Turnout wise though, I’m not at this point seeing anything that would suggest much.
Keep in mind Snapchat users skew WAY younger than the population so that should be considered when looking at these cases.

[It’s so Joever]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

High turnout in Johnson county means something: it means the rest of the state likely has high turnout too.

I remember in 2021 VA election day, twitter accounts like umichvoter were spamming falls church turnout reports.

This is what appears to be the case.

[wbrocks67]

Republican group was sending misleading texts saying that the pro-choice side was to vote Yes

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1554546070503493633?s=20&t=-PD98_...

not something you would probably do if you were winning

[Holmes]

Republican group was sending misleading texts saying that the pro-choice side was to vote Yes

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1554546070503493633?s=20&t=-PD98_...

not something you would probably do if you were winning

It can be.

[Unelectable Bystander]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

High turnout in Johnson county means something: it means the rest of the state likely has high turnout too.

I remember in 2021 VA election day, twitter accounts like umichvoter were spamming falls church turnout reports.

umichvoter produces more spam than anybody even including atlas. But that was especially inaccurate

[Person Man]

With my wife watching a show about the Stuarts, I like to think of this election as a battle of Catholics against Protestants!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just wanted to say as someone who's "close to the action" that we shouldn't read too much into the early votes, as there will be a lot of crossover voting on this. It's really not breaking hard along traditional partisan lines, even though more Democrats will vote No and more Republicans will vote Yes.


Subjectively (in terms of seeing advertising in this media market and such), it seemed like the Yes campaign has been kind of a steady presence for months, while the No campaign seems to have suddenly ramped up very fast from being almost nonexistent to being huge and everywhere during the last two weeks or so. Take from that what you will. Last-minute momentum? Or a failing campaign desperate to save itself? I have no idea.

All I can really say about this referendum is that I'm surprised it hasn't attracted more national media attention given its high stakes and relevance.

I believe CNN, MSNBC, TODAY, and GMA have all given in time in the last few days, so I would say it now has!

I guess I haven't watched enough news lately.

But anyway, I'm hoping for a "No" victory. It would mean a lot to women in general and the outlook for the future.

[AelroseB]

First results coming in from Topeka et al.  Any speculation from the initial margins?

[SnowLabrador]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

[Tintrlvr]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

I think it's only early votes, though, so the margin might go down.

On a universal swing from 2020 Presidential of course that margin would easily be enough (we'd be looking at a landslide; it would be a 39-61 win for No), but in addition to early votes reporting first and likely being more left-leaning, I'd expect a bigger swing compared to the the Presidential race in urban counties and a smaller one in rural counties given where Republicans who support the legality of abortion are likely to live.

[SnowLabrador]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

[Person Man]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

I hope that the pandemic dynamic ebbing has somewhat changed the calculus. Didn’t the early vote exceed the total vote of 2020?

[Person Man]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

How much?

[SnowLabrador]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

How much?

If my memory serves me right, it might have been as much as 20+ points. Then again, my memory's not the best sometimes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please don't actually take SnowLabrador or MATTROSE94 seriously and let them derail this thread guys.

[Tintrlvr]

Early results from Riley (Manhattan) and Wyandotte (KC) are in too. Riley shows basically the same swing as Shawnee (Topeka), Wyandotte much less of a swing but still sizeable and enough for a solid No win on a universal swing. Neither is terribly surprising but also subject to the same caveats as above, in particular about the early vote and to a lesser extent on rural vs. urban swings (although Wyandotte, being a more downmarket urban county, should probably swing more like a rural county than urban counties with more well off Republicans like Shawnee and Riley).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The county I'm most interested in is Sedgewick but with these results so far...it's tough to see polling significantly better than Kobach did.

[Person Man]

So we’re talking about a substantial loss or it coming down to the wire.

[7,052,770]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

[Person Man]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

How much?

If my memory serves me right, it might have been as much as 20+ points. Then again, my memory's not the best sometimes.

It’s still then on track to lose by a moderate amount.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

[Skill and Chance]

So we’re talking about a substantial loss or it coming down to the wire.

I remember Biden being up in the initial 2020 results, but not by 70/30.  

[7,052,770]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.