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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 08, 2022, 11:06:47 PM »

How do the following Asian-American groups trend in the future?

Mainland Chinese
Filipino
Japanese
Korean
Indian
Taiwanese
Vietnamese

Asian voters of all ethnicities swung right in 2020, though they all still voted Biden by large margins. Vietnamese voters are the big exception, as they are a consistently GOP-leaning group aside from 2016.

So how do they vote going forward?
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2022, 11:25:26 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2022, 11:36:49 PM by khuzifenq »

Fairly confident Indians will trend R and Vietnamese will trend D beyond the next couple cycles.

Also VERY confident Indians will remain the most D major Asian group and Vietnamese will remain the most R, unless intergenerational educational mobility differences among Asian groups persist over several decades, the VietAm electorate somehow becomes more college-educated than the FilAm electorate, and educational polarization increases.

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016. Might not happen if the global right remains as tied to anti-Chinese xenophobia like in recent Canadian and Australian elections.

Right now this is how I'd rank the groups' partisanship at the federal level:

(Other South Asian) > Indian = Japanese > ethnic Chinese > Korean > Filipino > Vietnamese

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khuzifenq
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2022, 12:29:05 AM »
« Edited: June 18, 2022, 01:46:14 PM by khuzifenq »

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.



I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.
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David Hume
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2022, 02:05:05 PM »

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.



I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.
To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them. 

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.
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pikachu
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2022, 10:07:35 PM »

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.



I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.
To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them. 

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

idk. It depends on how long this current moment of anti-Chinese/East Asian sentiment lasts, and who it gets blamed on in the long run. Atm it's definitely seems to be fitting into a wider narrative of Dem cities in disarray with the associated minority-on-minority violence narrative but i think khuzifenq is right that if anti-Chinese xenophobia continues b/c of wider geopolitical issues, anti-Asian sentiment might get increasingly associated with the right again. Depending on how it goes, a swing a la Muslims/South Asians post-9/11 towards Dems is a possibility.

(I'm not particularly excited about this future, but also at some point, the immigration debate does have to catch up with the fact that Asians have overtaken Latin Americans as the main entrants to country and I could see that have implications on the Asian vote.)
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2022, 11:54:20 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 12:22:06 AM by Kamala’s side hoe »

To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them.  

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

I’ve noticed that Vietnamese immigrants under 35 are quite willing to signal support for social justice causes and espouse socially liberal views, especially if they are female and work in healthcare. (Of course this is also true for native-borns, whose political leanings I am much more familiar with). I would imagine young Vietnamese men who immigrated after turning 18 are more willing to vote R based on Asia geopolitics than young women, but have no hard data to back that up.

I expect Asians to trend somewhat R like Blacks and Latinos are, and not just for the reasons you listed. The emerging class alignment where working and lower-middle class (i.e. middle-income) voters are becoming more reliably R than professional class voters means there is a lot of potential for Rs to gain with lower and middle-income Asians, who are quite a bit more D than their Non-Hispanic White counterparts.

Due to higher college graduation rates, clustering in occupations that favor Dems, and the way younger Asians are socialized in America (generally more as POC than as “white-adjacent”), I’m extremely skeptical that Asians were ever going to trend R to the point where they are more R than the NPV. That would require some sort of Sun and Moon-style realignment, where Chinese and Indians flip from being the most D Asian groups to being Likely R due to newer immigrant waves and what issues divide the parties- and even that might not be enough since less well-off and more blue-collar Asian groups would still be relatively D in that timeline.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2022, 12:16:57 AM »

they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

idk. It depends on how long this current moment of anti-Chinese/East Asian sentiment lasts, and who it gets blamed on in the long run. Atm it's definitely seems to be fitting into a wider narrative of Dem cities in disarray with the associated minority-on-minority violence narrative but i think khuzifenq is right that if anti-Chinese xenophobia continues b/c of wider geopolitical issues, anti-Asian sentiment might get increasingly associated with the right again. Depending on how it goes, a swing a la Muslims/South Asians post-9/11 towards Dems is a possibility.

(I'm not particularly excited about this future, but also at some point, the immigration debate does have to catch up with the fact that Asians have overtaken Latin Americans as the main entrants to country and I could see that have implications on the Asian vote.)

I wouldn't be surprised if Asians in general trend slightly R but I would mainly attribute this to newer immigrant waves inherently being less one-sidedly D (or possibly even R-leaning in some cases) than the current and past AAPI electorate, which Karthick Ramakrishnan has been bringing up since at least 2020.

I do think the rise in anti-Chinese/Eastern Asian sentiment is partially fueled by Asian immigration overtaking Latin American immigration, which makes East and Southeast Asians more of a target for xenophobic sentiment than they used to be.
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