Data on Asian Americans political leanings

[prag_prog]

Some really interesting data points here...it's crazy how Dem leaning young Asian Americans are. I noticed this even in some of the voter registration data. Education I think is playing a big factor here as young Asian Americans are a very highly educated group

https://twitter.com/johngramlich/status/1655606427904274437

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1635427270121881600

This is NC related data

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1625824160843968512

[Sol]

Louisiana is particularly striking since it's disproportionately Vietnamese -- can't be a good sign for Republicans in Houston or Orange County even if they've benefited from swings with older voters in recent times.

[It’s so Joever]

Young Asian Americans are an extremely heavily college educated group. Them being D makes perfect sense. Working class Asian Americans (whether young or old) are probably going to rapidly swing R and it’s possible some more working class Asian have ethnoburbs in Queens have RGV level swings. The thing is, they make their kids go to college at much higher rates than…pretty much everyone and those kids then vote D. Very normal.

[It’s so Joever]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Asiexit is coming folks. You saw a glimpse of it in 2022 but it's going to get even bigger.

[It’s so Joever]

Asiexit is coming folks. You saw a glimpse of it in 2022 but it's going to get even bigger.

The difference is that Asiexist is going to be less of an exit, and more of a rapid jump right in 2024/2026 and then a slow but steady march left in perpetuity so long as college education is a dividing political factor.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Interesting that Filipinos aren't more Republican. I always assumed they were among the most religious of Asian ethnicities and therefore more right-leaning. Maybe it has to do with immigrating from the first Marcos regime similar to how Chinese and Vietnamese Americans are more Republican due to fleeing Communist regimes.

Asiexit is coming folks. You saw a glimpse of it in 2022 but it's going to get even bigger.

Maybe, but when it comes to presidential elections they aren't too much of a presence in the major battleground states where they will disrupt things as much as Hispanic trends would or already have.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting that Filipinos aren't more Republican. I always assumed they were among the most religious of Asian ethnicities and therefore more right-leaning. Maybe it has to do with immigrating from the first Marcos regime similar to how Chinese and Vietnamese Americans are more Republican due to fleeing Communist regimes.

Asiexit is coming folks. You saw a glimpse of it in 2022 but it's going to get even bigger.

Maybe, but when it comes to presidential elections they aren't too much of a presence in the major battleground states where they will disrupt things as much as Hispanic trends would or already have.

It might make for a shocking R PV/D EC Scenario w/CA getting massively redder

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Louisiana is particularly striking since it's disproportionately Vietnamese -- can't be a good sign for Republicans in Houston or Orange County even if they've benefited from swings with older voters in recent times.

There are reasons why I'm bullish on where federal and state-level Dems stand with Vietnamese voters. I have some idea of how the 1988-2002 birth cohort stands on hot-button issues and socio-political worldview; IMO there isn't much evidence they're significantly to the right of their Korean or Filipino counterparts.

Asiexit is coming folks. You saw a glimpse of it in 2022 but it's going to get even bigger.

The difference is that Asiexist is going to be less of an exit, and more of a rapid jump right in 2024/2026 and then a slow but steady march left in perpetuity so long as college education is a dividing political factor.

My prediction that Asian voters will remain around 60-40 D in an even year for the foreseeable future was supported by exit polls having Asian voters as 58-40 D in the 2022 midterms, which was generally thought to be R+3.

These results look a lot like reversion to 2016-PRES, except Filipinos have gotten more D while Chinese and Vietnamese have gotten more R. My Atlas-brained theory why has to do with Trump shifting the GOP away from Abrahamic-based moral conservatism and towards a more "existential" cultural conservatism, which relatively secular/non-Christian Chinese and Vietnamese would find less unpalatable than relatively devoutly Christian Koreans and Filipinos. For some reason, I don't think relative GOP strength among ethnic Chinese and Vietnamese can be explained by income, educational attainment, and occupational clustering alone.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Admittedly, I am in a bit of a bubble, but I will say a very high percentage of my friends are Asian and they are the most politically active and farthest left people I know. Whether immigrants themselves or having families who've been here a long time, religious or irreligious, and across different ethnic groups, it's very consistent. A lot of my friends were deeply affected by anti-asian racism during COVID times (I've witnessed some of the most disgustingly racist behavior around them) and they became extremely aware of their "otherness". It made them more politically active and pushed them to the left socially. The younger generation is also often further removed from communist regimes and not weary of socialist-y leftist-y economic talk either.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Admittedly, I am in a bit of a bubble, but I will say a very high percentage of my friends are Asian and they are the most politically active and farthest left people I know. Whether immigrants themselves or having families who've been here a long time, religious or irreligious, and across different ethnic groups, it's very consistent. A lot of my friends were deeply affected by anti-asian racism during COVID times (I've witnessed some of the most disgustingly racist behavior around them) and they became extremely aware of their "otherness". It made them more politically active and pushed them to the left socially. The younger generation is also often further removed from communist regimes and not weary of socialist-y leftist-y economic talk either.

It's nice to see Atlas veterans support my Presidential Election Trend commentary with anecdotal evidence. More heartening than having my points backed up by mass shooting incidents at least

there's no Latino-specific equivalent to #stop(non-subcontinental)asianhate is there? Kind of validates the theory that groups which are more physically/culturally distinct from the socially dominant majority are more easily mobilized by the anti-"majoritarian group identity" coalition.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

It's nice to see Atlas veterans support my Presidential Election Trend commentary with anecdotal evidence. More heartening than having my points backed up by mass shooting incidents at least

there's no Latino-specific equivalent to #stop(non-subcontinental)asianhate is there? Kind of validates the theory that groups which are more physically/culturally distinct from the socially dominant majority are more easily mobilized by the anti-"majoritarian group identity" coalition.

I will also add that growing up a lot of my Asian friends who came from "integrated" White/Asian neighborhoods (of which there are many in suburbs across the country) always talked about being aware of their "otherness" because of the food they ate and the way they looked. They definitely felt it much more strongly post-2020 though; some of them had never really experienced racism outside of rude cultural comments or "jokes" in bad taste.

[David Hume]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

What do your father and uncles think about affirmative action?

[It’s so Joever]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian
 who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

What do your father and uncles think about affirmative action?

I have no clue about my grandfather but I’m guessing against if he has an opinion.

My father is also against affirmative action…really I think all of us are except my mother who is a bit more ambivalent on it.

[David Hume]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian
 who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

What do your father and uncles think about affirmative action?

I have no clue about my grandfather but I’m guessing against if he has an opinion.

My father is also against affirmative action…really I think all of us are except my mother who is a bit more ambivalent on it.

Yet still strongly D?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I do agree with khuzifenq and forum lurker Asians will be more likely to be Dem long term but in the short term I think especially the older ones that are Clinton-Trump or Clinton-Biden-GOP 22 are much easier for Rs to appeal to than Obama-Trump-Biden WWC if they change absolutely nothing about their political positions, which they seem to be doing

[It’s so Joever]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian
 who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

What do your father and uncles think about affirmative action?

I have no clue about my grandfather but I’m guessing against if he has an opinion.

My father is also against affirmative action…really I think all of us are except my mother who is a bit more ambivalent on it.

Yet still strongly D?

Yes. My father is not stupid and knows affirmative action is not the sole issue to vote on in this country.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian
 who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

What do your father and uncles think about affirmative action?

I have no clue about my grandfather but I’m guessing against if he has an opinion.

My father is also against affirmative action…really I think all of us are except my mother who is a bit more ambivalent on it.

Yet still strongly D?

Yes. My father is not stupid and knows affirmative action is not the sole issue to vote on in this country.

I think it will be interesting if SCOTUS strikes it down and Ds Meltdown over it

[It’s so Joever]

Just to make it clear, look at my own family. My grandfather is a working class Asian who generally doesn’t talk much about politics, but recently I caught several epoch times articles in Chinese in his car (f**k those right wing propagandists using WeChat and epoch to manipulate voters) He is fundamentally a different voter from my at this point upper class father who is a PHD along with his other two brothers both being college educated and strongly D from as far as I can tell. My grandfather is a devout Christian
 who converted decades back (maybe to assimilate and find community who knows) while my father left the church in his twenties and is agnostic (I revived the religious streak though lol)
The entire values and life experiences are different and these are father and son. Extrapolate that across millions of Asian Americans and boom, massive generational gap.

What do your father and uncles think about affirmative action?

I have no clue about my grandfather but I’m guessing against if he has an opinion.

My father is also against affirmative action…really I think all of us are except my mother who is a bit more ambivalent on it.

Yet still strongly D?

Yes. My father is not stupid and knows affirmative action is not the sole issue to vote on in this country.

I think it will be interesting if SCOTUS strikes it down and Ds Meltdown over it

Even that alone wouldn’t be enough to change our votes. Maybe for a lower information Asian American voter that would work, but unless major planks of the GOP platform are either changed or more/less deemphasized to the point of basically not even mentioning it, we will vote D.

Otoh if Ds are stupid enough to make their campaign ONLY about AA and ignore all other issues, wel yeah sure we may sit an election out (or at least I may)

[Хahar 🤔]

As is the case whenever there are actual facts presented, these facts represent a painful rebuttal to the posters here who would really like to believe that Asians will start voting Republican any time now. For starters, they form an extremely Democratic group just from looking at the demographics: the primary factor here is that they are not white, but also they tend to be highly educated and live in urban areas. Even among groups like Koreans that might be disproportionately Christian, there is not much reason to vote Republican now that the Republican Party is no longer religious in any meaningful sense.

Among groups that might have non-religious reasons to vote Republican—that is to say, Vietnamese and Chinese—identity categories can explain the significant shift in behavior across generations. I don't have data at hand, but I would think that young Vietnamese-Americans and young Chinese-Americans are far more likely than their immigrant parents to identify primarily as Asian-American rather than with a specific nationality. If you identify this way, then the legacy of communism in the old country doesn't matter to you, because your identity is not premised on the old country. Instead, you see yourself as an American, and your experience of Americanness is that you are Asian, which is to say that you are not white. It should be obvious why voters like this would be about as Democratic as black voters. The Republican Party has absolutely nothing to offer people like this.

Posters like davidhume here constantly talk about affirmative action because they really, really want it to be a winning issue by which Republicans can take the Asian vote. Empirically it's obviously not working, and it can't possibly work for the same reason that education is more or less never a winning issue for Republicans anywhere. (If you can come up with exactly one exception to this rule, congratulations!) If Republican messaging is about education, then people think about Republican plans for public education, which everyone knows involve gutting it. Voters who are concerned about education simply are not going to vote Republican, as we've seen time and time again. That these particular voters are from the exotic Orient doesn't change that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would counter Xahar point that it’s not working by pointing out that 40% of Asians did vote GOP in 2022 . Republicans don’t really need to win them outright for it to hurt the Dems and also democrats lead on the education issue was smaller than it used to be as well

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I would counter Xahar point that it’s not working by pointing out that 40% of Asians did vote GOP in 2022 . Republicans don’t really need to win them outright for it to hurt the Dems and also democrats lead on the education issue was smaller than it used to be as well

I think the criminal justice issue is really important too. They live in areas where crime is more likely(not blaming democrats lol its always been that way) and in addition, the older Asians are culturally very pro authority

[It’s so Joever]

I would counter Xahar point that it’s not working by pointing out that 40% of Asians did vote GOP in 2022 . Republicans don’t really need to win them outright for it to hurt the Dems and also democrats lead on the education issue was smaller than it used to be as well

I think the criminal justice issue is really important too. They live in areas where crime is more likely(not blaming democrats lol its always been that way) and in addition, the older Asians are culturally very pro authority

Fear of getting hate crimed is HIGH since Covid, especially among the elderly (who get their info from sensationalized WeChat stuff) and that has led to both to simultaneously more racial awareness but ALSO pro police sentiment.

[Mr. Smith]

I thought Japanese-Americans would have a more significant niche here. Guess not.

[GALeftist]

I thought Japanese-Americans would have a more significant niche here. Guess not.

I suspect the historical Democratic lean of Japanese-Americans is a big part of why "Other" is so D-leaning here.