Asian groups

[Roll Roons]

How do the following Asian-American groups trend in the future?

Mainland Chinese
Filipino
Japanese
Korean
Indian
Taiwanese
Vietnamese

Asian voters of all ethnicities swung right in 2020, though they all still voted Biden by large margins. Vietnamese voters are the big exception, as they are a consistently GOP-leaning group aside from 2016.

So how do they vote going forward?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Fairly confident Indians will trend R and Vietnamese will trend D beyond the next couple cycles.

Also VERY confident Indians will remain the most D major Asian group and Vietnamese will remain the most R, unless intergenerational educational mobility differences among Asian groups persist over several decades, the VietAm electorate somehow becomes more college-educated than the FilAm electorate, and educational polarization increases.

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016. Might not happen if the global right remains as tied to anti-Chinese xenophobia like in recent Canadian and Australian elections.

Right now this is how I'd rank the groups' partisanship at the federal level:

(Other South Asian) > Indian = Japanese > ethnic Chinese > Korean > Filipino > Vietnamese

[Kamala's side hoe]

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.

I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.

[David Hume]

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.

I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.

To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them. 

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

[pikachu]

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.

I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.

To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them. 

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

idk. It depends on how long this current moment of anti-Chinese/East Asian sentiment lasts, and who it gets blamed on in the long run. Atm it's definitely seems to be fitting into a wider narrative of Dem cities in disarray with the associated minority-on-minority violence narrative but i think khuzifenq is right that if anti-Chinese xenophobia continues b/c of wider geopolitical issues, anti-Asian sentiment might get increasingly associated with the right again. Depending on how it goes, a swing a la Muslims/South Asians post-9/11 towards Dems is a possibility.

(I'm not particularly excited about this future, but also at some point, the immigration debate does have to catch up with the fact that Asians have overtaken Latin Americans as the main entrants to country and I could see that have implications on the Asian vote.)

[Kamala's side hoe]

To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them.  

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

I’ve noticed that Vietnamese immigrants under 35 are quite willing to signal support for social justice causes and espouse socially liberal views, especially if they are female and work in healthcare. (Of course this is also true for native-borns, whose political leanings I am much more familiar with). I would imagine young Vietnamese men who immigrated after turning 18 are more willing to vote R based on Asia geopolitics than young women, but have no hard data to back that up.

I expect Asians to trend somewhat R like Blacks and Latinos are, and not just for the reasons you listed. The emerging class alignment where working and lower-middle class (i.e. middle-income) voters are becoming more reliably R than professional class voters means there is a lot of potential for Rs to gain with lower and middle-income Asians, who are quite a bit more D than their Non-Hispanic White counterparts.

Due to higher college graduation rates, clustering in occupations that favor Dems, and the way younger Asians are socialized in America (generally more as POC than as “white-adjacent”), I’m extremely skeptical that Asians were ever going to trend R to the point where they are more R than the NPV. That would require some sort of Sun and Moon-style realignment, where Chinese and Indians flip from being the most D Asian groups to being Likely R due to newer immigrant waves and what issues divide the parties- and even that might not be enough since less well-off and more blue-collar Asian groups would still be relatively D in that timeline.

[Kamala's side hoe]

they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

idk. It depends on how long this current moment of anti-Chinese/East Asian sentiment lasts, and who it gets blamed on in the long run. Atm it's definitely seems to be fitting into a wider narrative of Dem cities in disarray with the associated minority-on-minority violence narrative but i think khuzifenq is right that if anti-Chinese xenophobia continues b/c of wider geopolitical issues, anti-Asian sentiment might get increasingly associated with the right again. Depending on how it goes, a swing a la Muslims/South Asians post-9/11 towards Dems is a possibility.

(I'm not particularly excited about this future, but also at some point, the immigration debate does have to catch up with the fact that Asians have overtaken Latin Americans as the main entrants to country and I could see that have implications on the Asian vote.)

I wouldn't be surprised if Asians in general trend slightly R but I would mainly attribute this to newer immigrant waves inherently being less one-sidedly D (or possibly even R-leaning in some cases) than the current and past AAPI electorate, which Karthick Ramakrishnan has been bringing up since at least 2020.

I do think the rise in anti-Chinese/Eastern Asian sentiment is partially fueled by Asian immigration overtaking Latin American immigration, which makes East and Southeast Asians more of a target for xenophobic sentiment than they used to be.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

I do wonder if there are non-response and recall biases that make the VietAm recalled 2020 presidential vote more R than precinct level analysis and raw vote counts would suggest. I suspect there is also some recall bias for the ChinAm recalled 2020 vote, but in the opposite direction. (The raw Vietnamese Biden 2020 and Chinese Trump 2020 percentages below are identical to what the AAPI Data pre-election poll showed)

Resharing this part because the comparatively small size of the Vietnamese subsample makes me wonder if respondents were Trumpier/more enthusiastically R than the actual electorate.

2022 recalled vote: https://aapidata.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/AAVS-2022-Embargoed-7-21.pdf

Overall sample- Biden +36 (Biden % +9, Trump % -3 from Sept 2020 pre-election voter survey)


By Ethnic Group

	AsAm	Indian	Chinese	Filipino	Japanese	Korean	Vietnamese
Joe Biden	63%	71%	69%	59%	66%	66%	36%
Donald Trump	27%	15%	20%	33%	25%	27%	53%
Some other candidate	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%
Did not vote	7%	10%	6%	5%	9%	6%	8%
Don't know	2%	0%	3%	2%	0%	0%	2%
N	1558	297	323	251	218	262	207

When you factor out 2020 nonvoters this comes out to something more like:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
Indian: 79-17 (Biden +62)
Chinese: 73-21 (Biden +52)
Filipino: 62-35 (Biden +27)
Japanese: 72-27 (Biden +45)
Korean: 70-29 (Biden +41)
Vietnamese: 39-58 (Trump +19) ^ Dem % is a little below what I thought Biden's floor would be


By region:

	AsAm	Northeast	Midwest	South	West
Joe Biden	63%	67%	65%	55%	64%
Donald Trump	27%	21%	21%	35%	28%
Some other candidate	1%	2%	0%	1%	1%
Did not vote	7%	8%	12%	8%	6%
Don't know	2%	2%	2%	0%	2%
N	1558	312	162	360	724

Factoring out nonvoters:
Overall: 68-29 (Biden +39)
Northeast: 73-23 (Biden +50)
Midwest: 74-24 (Biden +50)
South: 60-38 (Biden +22)
West: 68-30 (Biden +38)

Will post issue polling findings from the 2022 Asian American voter survey (from AAPI Data) sometime later, although the results didn't seem that different from 2020 when I skimmed through the PDF last month.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Will post issue polling findings from the 2022 Asian American voter survey (from AAPI Data) sometime later, although the results didn't seem that different from 2020 when I skimmed through the PDF last month.

Bumping this thread now that we know Asian voters in Clark and Washoe Counties were D enough AND turned out enough to guarantee Dems 2 more years of a Senate majority.

Still haven't had time to look into issue polling findings, but here's how party ID has changed from 2018 among the Big 6 Asian groups. A back-to-back midterm year comparison seems more insightful than comparing 2 year intervals. There may be sample size/representativeness issues with these crosstabs, but it's the only real data we have.

2018 AsAm Voter Survey- Party ID


2022 AsAm Voter Survey- Party ID


Chinese 2018: 34 D - 12 R - 52 I/O [D + 22]
Chinese 2022: 42 D - 10 R - 47 I/O [D + 32]
(D + 10 shift in margin)

Indian 2018: 50 D - 18 R - 30 I/O [D + 32]
Indian 2022: 56 D - 15 R - 28 I/O [D + 41]
(D + 9 shift in margin)

Filipino 2018: 34 D - 30 R - 32 I/O [D + 4]
Filipino 2022: 44 D - 25 R  - 29 I/O [D + 19]
(D + 15 shift in margin)

Vietnamese 2018: 28 D - 42 R - 32 I/O [R + 14]
Vietnamese 2022: 23 D - 31 R - 46 I/O [R + 8]
(D + 6 shift in margin)

Korean 2018: 48 D - 20 R - 32 I/O [D + 28]
Korean 2022: 45 D - 25 R - 26 I/O [D + 20]
(R + 8 shift in margin)

Japanese 2018: 42 D - 8 R - 50 I/O [D + 34]
Japanese 2022: 57 D - 13 R - 28 I/O [D + 44]
(D + 10 shift in margin)

Overall sample 2018: 38 D - 22 R - 38(?) I/O [D + 16]
Overall sample 2022: 44 D - 19 R - 35 I/O [D + 25]
(D + 9 shift in margin)

What stands out to me isn't that Vietnamese are still so much more R than the other groups, it's that they're the only major group that's become less aligned with both major parties. Vietnamese trending R relative to Asians as a whole while Filipinos trend D isn't something I would've expected, but makes sense when you consider educational polarization and how big of an educational attainment gap there is between the VietAm electorate and other AsAms. The Korean trend is really interesting though, wonder if it's a quirk of erratic samples or if the alleged socon-fundamentalist and ethnocentric tendencies of KorAm diasporans relative to other AsAms are becoming more psephologically salient.

[Red Wall]

Mainland Chinese - D, both parties hate China but it's more of a focal point for republicans
Filipino - R they love Duterte and Marcos
Japanese - D unless they screw up affirmative action but japanese-americans are the only type of japanese descendants who aren't conservative
Korean - R they love Yoon and are concerned about North Korea
Indian - R they love Modi
Taiwanese - D they come from the most liberal country in Asia
Vietnamese - R they hate communism they are like the cubans of Asia

[Kamala's side hoe]

-snip- trend predictions

Disagree on Japanese and Vietnamese because I think they’re maxxed out for federal D’s and R’s respectively. People on Discord seem to agree with you (and me) on Indians if not South Asians as a whole.

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-releases-preliminary-asian-american-exit-poll-results-for-2022-midterm-elections/

If those Texas results are true it is proof of South Asians rapidly swinging R
Which would explain a lot of [REDACTED]’s personal anecdotes
Otherwise though looks like other Asian groups are holding similar to 2020

More context: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-5-asian-american-voters-are-thinking-about-the-midterms/ from 2 weeks before the midterms

The 5 Asian American panelists described in terms the Leipverse would understand:

• Ishan but with Xing + RI's age + marital status, AFE's ancestral country + religion, and OSR + PQG + Roll Roons' political views, likely socioeconomic status, and voting history.
• Older Millennial Chinese immigrant woman who judging from her name is likely married to a White American man.
• Middle-aged ethnic Korean man who exemplifies my impressions on how well members of this ancestry group fit into past and present party coalitions.
• Twentysomething Indian American male whose perspective reminds me of the tech bros and premed frat boy types I grew up with and met in college, regardless of whether either of those accurately describe him.
• Transracial Chinese adoptee who lives in the boonies of Washington State (these are all things she says about herself in the article)

Alex Samuels: Have you noticed a lurch either to the left or right among Asian American voters within your community? Has your political ideology changed over the last few years?

#1: I’ve noticed that people in my community tend to skew left. And with the election of Trump in 2016, I’ve seen that accelerate more and more — even among my friends and people in my age range. In regards to myself, however, I would say that, in the last few years, I’ve moved more to the right. When someone goes out of their way to oppose you and your views, it makes you more defensive and dig in a little bit more to the positions that perhaps weren’t so hard and fast before. At least, that’s how I am personally.

#3: People here have moved a little toward the right, particularly on guns and law and order issues, because of the attacks that happened to Asian people as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. My sisters live in New York, and they even tell me they’re afraid to go outside sometimes. And I know in Southern California, where I live, that a lot of Asians have bought guns for protection. So in that sense, they’re more on Republicans’ side when it comes to guns, but it’s mainly so they can protect themselves. My political ideology hasn’t changed in the last few years, though.

#4: In my estimation, younger Indian Americans and younger Asian American voters still seem very tied to the Democratic Party. But I have seen older Asian American voters, particularly middle-aged men in my community, move toward the Republican Party in recent years. But that’s just my anecdotal experience. As for myself, I’d say that my political ideology has definitely changed. A few years ago, I might have described myself as a Republican-leaning independent, and now I would say I’m a Democratic-leaning independent.

[pikachu]

Hm anecdotally and from administering the poll, I’m surprised by the apparent Indian R swing. That was not the impression I got.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Hm anecdotally and from administering the poll, I’m surprised by the apparent Indian R swing. That was not the impression I got.

Yeah. I do think there is potential for Indians to swing R across several cycles, but have no idea why such a swing would be localized to TX/the South, or why it would be apparent in just 1 cycle. You could just as easily interpret the strong D showing among MI, PA, and GA Asians that Indian Americans have remained as D as ever. We also don't know if the TX crosstab was representative of Asians across the entire state.

I don't think AALDEF is representative of the national Asian vote, but the state crosstabs seem useful for comparisons across regions and metros. For example, NV Asians being surprisingly D for their abortion attitudes is consistent with NV Asians being heavily working-class and Filipino Catholic.

[The Ex-Factor]

Will post issue polling findings from the 2022 Asian American voter survey (from AAPI Data) sometime later, although the results didn't seem that different from 2020 when I skimmed through the PDF last month.

Bumping this thread now that we know Asian voters in Clark and Washoe Counties were D enough AND turned out enough to guarantee Dems 2 more years of a Senate majority.

Still haven't had time to look into issue polling findings, but here's how party ID has changed from 2018 among the Big 6 Asian groups. A back-to-back midterm year comparison seems more insightful than comparing 2 year intervals. There may be sample size/representativeness issues with these crosstabs, but it's the only real data we have.

2018 AsAm Voter Survey- Party ID


2022 AsAm Voter Survey- Party ID


Chinese 2018: 34 D - 12 R - 52 I/O [D + 22]
Chinese 2022: 42 D - 10 R - 47 I/O [D + 32]
(D + 10 shift in margin)

Indian 2018: 50 D - 18 R - 30 I/O [D + 32]
Indian 2022: 56 D - 15 R - 28 I/O [D + 41]
(D + 9 shift in margin)

Filipino 2018: 34 D - 30 R - 32 I/O [D + 4]
Filipino 2022: 44 D - 25 R  - 29 I/O [D + 19]
(D + 15 shift in margin)

Vietnamese 2018: 28 D - 42 R - 32 I/O [R + 14]
Vietnamese 2022: 23 D - 31 R - 46 I/O [R + 8]
(D + 6 shift in margin)

Korean 2018: 48 D - 20 R - 32 I/O [D + 28]
Korean 2022: 45 D - 25 R - 26 I/O [D + 20]
(R + 8 shift in margin)

Japanese 2018: 42 D - 8 R - 50 I/O [D + 34]
Japanese 2022: 57 D - 13 R - 28 I/O [D + 44]
(D + 10 shift in margin)

Overall sample 2018: 38 D - 22 R - 38(?) I/O [D + 16]
Overall sample 2022: 44 D - 19 R - 35 I/O [D + 25]
(D + 9 shift in margin)

What stands out to me isn't that Vietnamese are still so much more R than the other groups, it's that they're the only major group that's become less aligned with both major parties. Vietnamese trending R relative to Asians as a whole while Filipinos trend D isn't something I would've expected, but makes sense when you consider educational polarization and how big of an educational attainment gap there is between the VietAm electorate and other AsAms. The Korean trend is really interesting though, wonder if it's a quirk of erratic samples or if the alleged socon-fundamentalist and ethnocentric tendencies of KorAm diasporans relative to other AsAms are becoming more psephologically salient.

https://imgur.com/a/cbRprvf

I'm thinking the 2018 Korean survey was a bit of an pro-Democratic outlier, because otherwise the Korean vote tends to hew pretty closely to the overall Asian-American vote in terms of margin. Subsamples are obviously quite small though so beware of volatility in interpreting the results. Or hey, maybe Michelle Steel and Young Kim swung some Koreans to the Republicans?

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-releases-preliminary-asian-american-exit-poll-results-for-2022-midterm-elections/ (not nationally representative)

DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | MN | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA

(On Nov 9), the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released preliminary results of its nonpartisan, multilingual exit poll of 5,351 Asian American voters in the November 8, 2022, midterm elections.

Voters were surveyed in English, as well as 11 Asian languages, including Arabic, Bengali, Chinese, Gujarati, Hindi, Khmer, Korean, Punjabi, Tagalog, Urdu, and Vietnamese. More detailed results will be provided soon.

Nationally

Vote for House of Representatives: 64.0% Democrat, 32.0% Republican, 2.7% Other, 1.2% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate (CA, FL, GA, LA, MD, NV, NY, PA only): 66.1% Democrat, 30.0% Republican, 2.5% Other, 1.4% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 45.3% Approve, 23.3% Don’t Know, 31.4% Disapprove

Victim of Anti-Asian Harassment or Violence in the Past Two Years: 21.6% Yes, 78.4% No

Support Requiring Teaching a Unit of AAPI History in K-12: 82.7% Yes, 17.3% No

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 63.8% Support, 15.8% Don’t Know, 20.4% Oppose

Support Laws to Protect Transgender People from Discrimination: 65.2% Support, 20.9% Don’t Know, 14.0% Oppose

Georgia (@LostFellow, @Xahar)

Vote for House of Representatives: 60.3% Democrat, 35.1% Republican, 3.3% Other, 1.3% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate: 60.1% Warnock, 33.3% Walker, 4.6% Other, 2.0% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 37.9% Approve, 26.1% Don’t Know, 36.0% Disapprove

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 59.2% Support, 19.8% Don’t Know, 21.0% Oppose

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

Lol @ the age crosstabs. You know the GOP candidate was astronomically bad when the 1973-1982 birth cohort in a socially conservative swing state went 85-15 D...

Asian American voters aged 18-29 voted Warnock 92.0% and Walker 6.7%.

Asian American voters aged 30-39 voted Warnock 87.5% and Walker 12.5%.

Asian American voters aged 40-49 voted Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.

Asian American voters aged 50-59 voted Warnock 66.1% and Walker 33.9%.

Asian American voters aged 60-69 voted Warnock 71.9% and Walker 25.0%.

Asian American voters aged 70 and over voted Warnock 37.5% and Walker 62.5%.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Some really interesting data points here...it's crazy how Dem leaning young Asian Americans are. I noticed this even in some of the voter registration data. Education I think is playing a big factor here as young Asian Americans are a very highly educated group

https://twitter.com/johngramlich/status/1655606427904274437

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1635427270121881600
This is NC related data

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1625824160843968512

Relevant bump- too lazy to quote my posts in the PG&D thread. It does seem like there's somewhat of an electoral tradeoff as ethnic Chinese have gotten more R, Filipinos have gotten more D, and Vietnamese have reverted somewhat to pre-Trump partisanship (after adjusting for generational replacement of course).

The lack of significant R gains among Indians so far makes me skeptical that Asians will trend R by a whole lot, even if what looks like a probable R surge among inner-city enclave Chinese in response to localized crime and political neglect becomes more lasting. This is based on immigration patterns among different Asian countries and how newer immigrants might vote compared to existing voters- although we'll have to see what the current and future administration do about newer Chinese migrants.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Some really interesting data points here...it's crazy how Dem leaning young Asian Americans are. I noticed this even in some of the voter registration data. Education I think is playing a big factor here as young Asian Americans are a very highly educated group

https://twitter.com/johngramlich/status/1655606427904274437

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1635427270121881600
This is NC related data

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1625824160843968512

Relevant bump- too lazy to quote my posts in the PG&D thread. It does seem like there's somewhat of an electoral tradeoff as ethnic Chinese have gotten more R, Filipinos have gotten more D, and Vietnamese have reverted somewhat to pre-Trump partisanship (after adjusting for generational replacement of course).

The lack of significant R gains among Indians so far makes me skeptical that Asians will trend R by a whole lot, even if what looks like a probable R surge among inner-city enclave Chinese in response to localized crime and political neglect becomes more lasting. This is based on immigration patterns among different Asian countries and how newer immigrants might vote compared to existing voters- although we'll have to see what the current and future administration do about newer Chinese migrants.

29% is much higher than it has been since 2008 though.

[David Hume]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-releases-preliminary-asian-american-exit-poll-results-for-2022-midterm-elections/ (not nationally representative)

DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | MN | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA

(On Nov 9), the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released preliminary results of its nonpartisan, multilingual exit poll of 5,351 Asian American voters in the November 8, 2022, midterm elections.

Voters were surveyed in English, as well as 11 Asian languages, including Arabic, Bengali, Chinese, Gujarati, Hindi, Khmer, Korean, Punjabi, Tagalog, Urdu, and Vietnamese. More detailed results will be provided soon.

Nationally

Vote for House of Representatives: 64.0% Democrat, 32.0% Republican, 2.7% Other, 1.2% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate (CA, FL, GA, LA, MD, NV, NY, PA only): 66.1% Democrat, 30.0% Republican, 2.5% Other, 1.4% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 45.3% Approve, 23.3% Don’t Know, 31.4% Disapprove

Victim of Anti-Asian Harassment or Violence in the Past Two Years: 21.6% Yes, 78.4% No

Support Requiring Teaching a Unit of AAPI History in K-12: 82.7% Yes, 17.3% No

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 63.8% Support, 15.8% Don’t Know, 20.4% Oppose

Support Laws to Protect Transgender People from Discrimination: 65.2% Support, 20.9% Don’t Know, 14.0% Oppose

Georgia (@LostFellow, @Xahar)

Vote for House of Representatives: 60.3% Democrat, 35.1% Republican, 3.3% Other, 1.3% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate: 60.1% Warnock, 33.3% Walker, 4.6% Other, 2.0% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 37.9% Approve, 26.1% Don’t Know, 36.0% Disapprove

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 59.2% Support, 19.8% Don’t Know, 21.0% Oppose

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

Lol @ the age crosstabs. You know the GOP candidate was astronomically bad when the 1973-1982 birth cohort in a socially conservative swing state went 85-15 D...

Asian American voters aged 18-29 voted Warnock 92.0% and Walker 6.7%.

Asian American voters aged 30-39 voted Warnock 87.5% and Walker 12.5%.

Asian American voters aged 40-49 voted Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.

Asian American voters aged 50-59 voted Warnock 66.1% and Walker 33.9%.

Asian American voters aged 60-69 voted Warnock 71.9% and Walker 25.0%.

Asian American voters aged 70 and over voted Warnock 37.5% and Walker 62.5%.

This must be an error. I think it should be Warnock 62.5%.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Some really interesting data points here...it's crazy how Dem leaning young Asian Americans are. I noticed this even in some of the voter registration data. Education I think is playing a big factor here as young Asian Americans are a very highly educated group

https://twitter.com/johngramlich/status/1655606427904274437

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1635427270121881600
This is NC related data

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1625824160843968512

Relevant bump- too lazy to quote my posts in the PG&D thread. It does seem like there's somewhat of an electoral tradeoff as ethnic Chinese have gotten more R, Filipinos have gotten more D, and Vietnamese have reverted somewhat to pre-Trump partisanship (after adjusting for generational replacement of course).

The lack of significant R gains among Indians so far makes me skeptical that Asians will trend R by a whole lot, even if what looks like a probable R surge among inner-city enclave Chinese in response to localized crime and political neglect becomes more lasting. This is based on immigration patterns among different Asian countries and how newer immigrants might vote compared to existing voters- although we'll have to see what the current and future administration do about newer Chinese migrants.

29% is much higher than it has been since 2008 though.

Shame there aren't any Pew surveys of eligible Indian American voters, even though this sounds right to me. Are there any semi-legit exit polls of Indian American voters from before 2012?

Relevant thread