NY Gov - Quinnipiac - Hochul +4

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1582402677970903040?t=5OfmIiLOh8G9LX0u86n...


https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3859

[Skill and Chance]

Holy crap that margin in a Q poll suggests a Zeldin win.

[wbrocks67]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Holy crap that margin in a Q poll suggests a Zeldin win.

Lol no

[Duke of York]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Hence why I think this is an outlier. Seems very unlikely to me.

[Skill and Chance]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Very reasonable to think parts of NYC would trend right meaningfully given L.A., Miami, Houston, etc. results in 2020.

[soundchaser]

Comparing New York polls to everything else this cycle:

[Ferguson97]

Quite a gap between this and the D+11 Siena poll released today.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Quite a gap between this and the D+11 Siena poll released today.

Both margins would be a horrific underperformance for Hochul.

[Eraserhead]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Hence why I think this is an outlier. Seems very unlikely to me.

There was a poll recently that found similar numbers.

That said, I think there's something going very wrong with New York's statewide polling lately. I guess we'll know for sure in a few weeks.

[Senator Incitatus]

[wbrocks67]

There seems to be a consistency though with all of these - where Zeldin leads with Independents.

Pretty shocking to see as such, given that Zeldin is anti-abortion rights and voted to overturn the 2020 election.

[Eraserhead]

Quite a gap between this and the D+11 Siena poll released today.

Both margins would be a horrific underperformance for Hochul.

Yes but this would obviously be much worse.

[BenjiG98]

There seems to be a consistency though with all of these - where Zeldin leads with Independents.

Pretty shocking to see as such, given that Zeldin is anti-abortion rights and voted to overturn the 2020 election.

Independents are not always a prudent or thoughtful block. They're just as shallow and dumb as a lot of other American voters.

[wbrocks67]

Incoming Biden visit then! lol

Though I do find it interesting that Zeldin is probably way better funded than most previous R challengers, too. There seems to be a lot of outside spending on his behalf.

[Pollster]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

[Eraserhead]

Believable result... in a Republican tidal wave.

Which there hasn't been much evidence of even in New York's own special elections.

[wbrocks67]

That NYC figure .... Hochul only +22, 59-37.

Would love Pollster's opinion here, because unless there is some non response bias here, I find it hard to believe Hochul is only up +22 in NYC of all places.

Thanks for flagging. I've mentioned in other places on this board that NY is one of the few places where our unweighted samples come back very pro-Trump in 2020 vote recall as opposed to most places in the country where non-response bias has strongly favored Democrats. I've only polled in a few districts, but it's been consistent across all of them so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a statewide pattern. Looks like that might be happening here as well - very hard to see Schumer performing so poorly with independents against a sacrificial lamb candidate, for example, no matter how large the MOE on the subsample is. That's a telltale sign of non-response.

Thanks for the update. In the world where it is non-response bias, why do you think New York in particular is having an issue with it in terms of GOP actually answering more, compared to it usually being the other way around in most states?

[wbrocks67]

Believable result... in a Republican tidal wave.

Which there hasn't been much evidence of even in New York's own special elections.

Hochul winning by the same amount that Pat Ryan won his special would be.... something lol.

[Brittain33]

Between this, Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, we’re seeing a serious decoupling between state and federal races.

[Aurelius]

IT'S HAPPENING BOYS

Now we just need a shock Newsom +6 poll to complete the effect.

Likely D.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Ok, now I'm worried about this one. Most of the polls showing Zeldin close have been really wacky with way too many undecideds, 3rd party votes and whatnot. This one has a large sample size, reasonable sample of voters given the national environment and there are only 2% undecided. Hochul should definitely still be the favorite.... but wow.

[Aurelius]

Between this, Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, we’re seeing a serious decoupling between state and federal races.

As it should be. Nationalization of Senate and House races makes sense, because party control of Congress is very important. But there's no reason Gov races should be so closely tied to national politics.

[wbrocks67]

New York also seems like a place where party registration is pretty correlated with party ID (unlike in PA where things get funky in terms of voting patterns),

Voter reg (from February) -https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1501552097170317314
Democrats 50%
Republicans 22%
Independents 28%

LV sample here-
Democrats 39%
Republicans 24%
Independents 31%

So, probably undercutting Democrats significantly here.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Between this, Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, we’re seeing a serious decoupling between state and federal races.

I see this as a good thing. My hope would be that it gives rise to more ideologically heterodox candidates in both parties.