🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper on leadership candidates:

Preferred PM:

40% Luís Montenegro
39% Pedro Nuno Santos
21% Undecided

42% José Luís Carneiro
37% Luís Montenegro
21% Undecided

PS leadership ballot:

All voters:

38% José Luís Carneiro
29% Pedro Nuno Santos
  5% Other
28% Undecided

PS voters:

39% Pedro Nuno Santos
34% José Luís Carneiro
  4% Other
23% Undecided

PSD leadership:

All voters:

37% Pedro Passos Coelho
24% Carlos Moedas
18% Luís Montenegro
  4% Other
17% Undecided

Rightwing voters:

57% Pedro Passos Coelho
19% Carlos Moedas
15% Luís Montenegro
  3% Other
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 15 and 24 November 2023. Polled 1,102 voters. MoE of 3.00%.

[Mike88]

2024 budget is now officially approved:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1729862929393303858

The State Budget for 2024 has just been approved, in a final global vote, with an absolute socialist majority. Only the PS voted in favor. Livre and PAN abstained. PSD, Chega, Liberal Initiative, Bloco de Esquerda and PCP voted against.

With a very emotional António Costa that didn't spoke during the debate, only made a brief statement to reporters as he left the floor, his 9th and last budget as PM was approved this afternoon. The PS was, again, the sole party voting in favour, with all the Opposition voting against, with the exception of PAN and Livre which abstained. The results were the following:

120 In favour (PS)
105 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, PCP, BE)
    2 Abstentions (PAN, Livre)
    3 Absent (3 PSD)

The Government and the PS hailed António Costa for leading the country for the last 8 years during a lot of a crisis but with a lot of good news, mainly in the economic front. The Opposition left to right, however, trashed Costa's legacy and the budget: The PSD accused the PS of thwarting their majority and that the government collapsed on itself due to nepotism and lack of republican ethics; Ventura said that the PS is a victim of the "cronyism that they promoted"; while the Liberals (IL) said "Hasta la vista" to PM Costa and that the "permanent avoidance of responsibilities" will be Costa's legacy; On the left, PCP said that the PS majority only gave instability to the Portuguese people, while BE said that they always fought against a "regime of promiscuity" and "an economy of favors", pressing that the leftwing isn't this. PAN, who got some "victories" in the budget debate, said that their abstention is because they are a "stability reference". Livre, who also abstained, said that the budget isn't perfect and said that more would have been possible if Livre had more MPs.

As he left the floor of the chamber, Costa made a brief statement to reporters. He said "It's done", and added that the country now has a stable budget situation which increases the freedom for future policy decisions. He said, once again, that he "turned the page of austerity" and that during his 8 years in power, Portugal converged with the EU average.

With the budget final and definitive approval, President Marcelo is expected to sign the decree that formalizes Costa's resignation and the fall of the government in the next few days, which will also kick start the process of dissolving Parliament.

[Mike88]

Now, this is a massive age gap: (From the UCP–CESOP poll)

18-34 age: (30% undecided)

47% Rightwing parties
16% Leftwing

65+ age: (17% undecided)

43% Leftwing parties
31% Rightwing

The rest of the crosstabs aren't surprising: PS wins less educated, PSD more educated, PSD ahead in the male vote, while PS is ahead in the female vote. Note for the male vote, 18% would vote CHEGA, just one point behind the PS.

[Mike88]

PS leadership candidates present their party motions:

Pedro Nuno Santos

- Reformulation of the welfare state to ensure better health, education and housing coverage;
- Continue increase in pensions;
- Recovery of all frozen wage and career progression of public workers;
- On trade, more focus on exports and decrease on imports;
- More support for science and research;
- Business supports "as a driver of a stronger economy";
- Platform to attract highly skilled workers to the public sector;
- Start the country’s regionalization process;

José Luís Carneiro

- Electoral reform proposal for a better connection between elected officials and voters;
- Reform of local government with more powers to mayors;
- Plan to regularize lobbying and press on transparency;
- Supports for small and medium size businesses;
- Housing national pact to increase the number of houses and reduce bureaucracy;
- Creation of a network of professional education schools;
- National referendum on regionalization;

Daniel Adrião

- Electoral reform with FPTP constituencies;
- Would not be party leader if elected PM;

A new poll, from Aximage, shows that voters see Pedro Nuno Santos as the likely winner of the ballot, but do not see him as the best option to be Prime Minister, a trend already seen in the RTP poll:

Q1: Better chance of becoming leader of the PS?

52% Pedro Nuno Santos
26% José Luís Carneiro
22% Undecided

Q2: Of the two, who would make a better PM?

38% José Luís Carneiro
34% Pedro Nuno Santos
28% Undecided

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 November 2023. Polled 802 voters. MoE of 3.50%

[Mike88]

But, despite talks of a possible early election, the electoral calender has an election for October 2024 and there was talk that the Azores election could coincide with the 10 March snap general election, a second draft budget looks possible. In the last few hours, the PSD coalition probed CHEGA and PAN about the possibility of approving a new budget draft. In his final speech, President Bolieiro confirmed this intention saying he will now talk with "parties that are available to participate in the solution". The Azores political crisis is, for now, put on hold.

The calling of an early election in the Azores is imminent:

President Marcelo has been meeting, today, with parties represented in the regional parliament and basically all have defended elections. Azores President Bolieiro, who last week wanted to present a second budget, now says it would be useless and an election is the best solution now.

Parties defend an election on 4 February 2024. Now it’s in Marcelo’s hands.

[mileslunn]

Now, this is a massive age gap: (From the UCP–CESOP poll)

18-34 age: (30% undecided)

47% Rightwing parties
16% Leftwing

65+ age: (17% undecided)

43% Leftwing parties
31% Rightwing

The rest of the crosstabs aren't surprising: PS wins less educated, PSD more educated, PSD ahead in the male vote, while PS is ahead in the female vote. Note for the male vote, 18% would vote CHEGA, just one point behind the PS.

Total opposite of Anglosphere as there it is young favour left wing, older right wing, more educated left wing, less educated right wing.  Any reason for that? True young Canada and New Zealand saw big swing right to them over housing, but in US, UK & Ireland lean very much to left.  And in All Anglosphere countries, university educated lean left, those with only high school lean right.

[President Johnson]

Now, this is a massive age gap: (From the UCP–CESOP poll)

18-34 age: (30% undecided)

47% Rightwing parties
16% Leftwing

65+ age: (17% undecided)

43% Leftwing parties
31% Rightwing

The rest of the crosstabs aren't surprising: PS wins less educated, PSD more educated, PSD ahead in the male vote, while PS is ahead in the female vote. Note for the male vote, 18% would vote CHEGA, just one point behind the PS.

Why are young people leaning so much to the right? Especially since the Social Democrats are still competitive despite Costa's scandal.

[crals]

Because the biggest cleavage in Portuguese politics is still class (economics)

[Mike88]

Total opposite of Anglosphere as there it is young favour left wing, older right wing, more educated left wing, less educated right wing.  Any reason for that? True young Canada and New Zealand saw big swing right to them over housing, but in US, UK & Ireland lean very much to left.  And in All Anglosphere countries, university educated lean left, those with only high school lean right.

Like what Crals said, the divisions are class economics. Elderly voters, pensioners, are still traumatized from the troika cuts, so, they are a reliable voting constituency for the left, especially for the PS. Young voters, who have lived most of their life under PS led governments, see the left as the status quo who isn't improving their life or prospects in having a future in the country, so the trend is to vote against the left. In terms of education, as Portugal remains a structurally poor country with deep inequalities, less educated parts of the population become more and more dependent on government supports, direct or indirect, which makes them vote more for the left, PS in this case, while more educated, upper class voters, see that poverty and inequality aren't being resolved and don't believe the left has solutions to tackle these problems.

Why are young people leaning so much to the right? Especially since the Social Democrats are still competitive despite Costa's scandal.

Like I said above, the left is the status quo. But, the rightwing vote is very divided: In the poll, the PSD has 19%, CHEGA 14% and the Liberals 13%. The PS only appears with 6%. However, this number is probably exaggeratedly low, as there are still almost 1/3 of undecideds in this voting bloc.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

32.9% PS (+4.3)
26.7% PSD (+1.8 )
16.2% CHEGA (+1.6)
  6.9% BE (-0.2)
  5.0% IL (-1.7)
  3.2% CDU (-0.6)
  2.9% PAN (-1.9)
  2.0% Livre (-0.9)
  1.5% CDS (-0.1)
  2.7% Others/Invalid (-2.3)

Preferred PM:

47% Pedro Nuno Santos
31% Luís Montenegro
22% Undecided

38% José Luís Carneiro
37% Luís Montenegro
25% Undecided

Rejection rate:

74% Paulo Raimundo
67% Nuno Melo
66% Inês Sousa Real
64% André Ventura
60% Mariana Mortágua
58% Rui Tavares
57% Rui Rocha
49% Pedro Nuno Santos
44% José Luís Carneiro
43% Luís Montenegro

President Marcelo approval:

37% Approve (-7)
33% Disapprove (-1)
27% Neither approve or disapprove (+6)
  3% Undecided (+2)

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 November 2023. Polled 802 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo who is, "allegedly", involved in another, and weird, case. TVI showed a report, last Friday, in which President Marcelo is accused by doctors of the biggest hospital in the country, Santa Maria Hospital in Lisbon, of allegedly pulling the strings for a Luso-Brazilian couple with twin daughters that have a rare illness, in order to take, each, a 2 million euro drug at the hospital. An audio of the twins mother shows her bragging that she used her "contacts" with the President's daughter-in-law, who then reached the Health minister and so on. This case created a lot of fury in the hospital as doctors didn't want to give the drug to the twins as it wouldn't solve anything, and in the corridors of the hospital, the report says, doctors "point" at Marcelo. This gets more mysterious because every single document regarding the stay of the twins at the hospital has vanished. Marcelo has reacted by saying that did no such thing nor did he "talked" with anyone, adding that if someone accuses him directly, he could go to the Courts.

The "Twins' affair" continues on the headlines and President Marcelo gave a press conference this afternoon in order to say he did nothing wrong:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1731740703607431507

Marcelo reveals that he received an email from his son alerting him to the twins' case

This case has been dragging for weeks now, alongside the political crisis, with a lot of people not remembering it and some, like former Health minister Marta Temido, just rambling about it. The alleged suspicions surrounding President Marcelo continued, and this afternoon, he gave a press conference to try to clear the case once and for all. Despite saying, in the beginning, that he didn't remember his son talking about the twins' case, Marcelo now says, after an internal server investigation at the Presidential Palace, that his son indeed informed him, via email, of the case but that the President only passed on the case itself to the competent authorities, in this case PM's Costa office. What happened next, the President isn't sure, nor does he knows what actions his son might have take, saying "I hope he didn't." The President pressed that he receives a lot of cases like this one everyday and that he handled it like any other and was completely neutral.

The media's reaction to the President's statements are that Marcelo is trying to pass the blame to Costa's government, pressing he did everything right. Pundits point that Marcelo knows that this case is hurting his image, recent polls put Marcelo's approvals at the lowest point ever, and that he needs to come out and explain his position and role in this.

[Mike88]

Other updates:

- The PS leadership ballot, on 15 and 16 December, will have around 60,000 PS members registered to vote. Of the current 80,000 members of the party, this means that 75% paid their fees in time. On 15 Decmeber, 12 districts will be able to cast ballots, while on 16 December, the remaing 9 district will vote. Polls will close at 10pm in both days;

- The PSD announced that members or personalities that are suspects or have been convicted for somekind of crime, will not be allowed to be part of the party's lists to the March election, adding that MPs who are suspects of any crime, will be forced to resign. The party also decided that MPs that constantly clash with the majority of the caucus decisions, will be "advised" to resign;

- For the first time in his almost 8 years in office, President Marcelo had a "red" poll. Intercampus poll from November shows 36% of voters disapproving President Marcelo's job, and just 33% approving it;

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The public seems to be tiring of this soap opera.

[oldtimer]

Now, this is a massive age gap: (From the UCP–CESOP poll)

18-34 age: (30% undecided)

47% Rightwing parties
16% Leftwing

65+ age: (17% undecided)

43% Leftwing parties
31% Rightwing

The rest of the crosstabs aren't surprising: PS wins less educated, PSD more educated, PSD ahead in the male vote, while PS is ahead in the female vote. Note for the male vote, 18% would vote CHEGA, just one point behind the PS.

Why are young people leaning so much to the right? Especially since the Social Democrats are still competitive despite Costa's scandal.

It's a Western European thing.

It's basically a reaction to who dominated after the Cold War ended.

Everything on this side of the Berlin Wall: rightwing parties = change
Everything on the other side of the Berlin Wall: leftwing parties = change

[Mike88]

The public seems to be tiring of this soap opera.

Which one? There are so many of them nowadays.

[Battista Minola 1616]

1. Has Marcelo called an election in the Azores yet? Do you think the result will be decided more by the unpopularity of the national (PS) government or by the... everything that has been going on with the outgoing regional (PSD) administration?

2. Is José Luís Carneiro seen as a Costa/Medina proxy?

[Mike88]

1. Has Marcelo called an election in the Azores yet? Do you think the result will be decided more by the unpopularity of the national (PS) government or by the... everything that has been going on with the outgoing regional (PSD) administration?

2. Is José Luís Carneiro seen as a Costa/Medina proxy?

1. Not yet. Marcelo has to meet with the Council of State in order to call the election, which will happen next 11 December. After that, Marcelo is expected to call the election for early February. I'm not 100% sure, Crals could give a much more detailed take, but I think that the Azores election will be decided more by local issues rather than the national picture. Because there's no polling or trends from the Azores, it's difficult to paint a picture of what the electorate thinks;

2. José Luís Carneiro, yes, is seen as the "continuation" of Costa in the PS leadership. His endorsements have been growing and they all come from those close and around PM Costa. Carneiro has been gaining ground lately as he's seen as the more moderate and sensible candidate, while PNS campaign has been quite dull and with very little to show for. When the ballot was called, a "coronation" was expected for PNS, but as of now, it could be a really close ballot;

[Mike88]

Consulmark2 poll for Sol newspaper and Euronews:

Vote share %:

30.0% PSD
26.0% PS
17.2% CHEGA
  6.7% IL
  4.4% BE
  2.3% CDS
  2.3% Livre
  2.1% CDU
  1.4% PAN
  7.6% Others/Invalid

PS leadership:

Q1: Best profile to be Prime Minister?

44.7% José Luís Carneiro
19.5% Pedro Nuno Santos
35.8% Undecided

Q2: But, who will win the PS leadership ballot?

51.5% Pedro Nuno Santos
22.6% José Luís Carneiro
25.9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 30 November and 6 December 2023. Polled 575 voters. MoE of 4.10%.

[Mike88]

As of now, Costa is a caretaker Prime Minister:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1732886604736516261

President of the Republic formalizes resignation from the Government

Exactly one month after he tendered his resignation, Costa is now a caretaker PM as President Marcelo signed the resignation decree this evening. However, he could remain in office for a few more months, as the election is on 10 March 2024 and an inconclusive result could drag things for more months.

In the last few weeks and days, Costa has been quite active in showing "works in progress" and many noticed a more "relaxed" and "happy" António Costa.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

In the last few weeks and days, Costa has been quite active in showing "works in progress" and many noticed a more "relaxed" and "happy" António Costa.

I have to assume seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and not having much to really lose since he's guaranteed to be gone relieved some stress? Leading a country is always going to be stressful work, after all.

[Mike88]

In the last few weeks and days, Costa has been quite active in showing "works in progress" and many noticed a more "relaxed" and "happy" António Costa.

I have to assume seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and not having much to really lose since he's guaranteed to be gone relieved some stress? Leading a country is always going to be stressful work, after all.

Exactly, plus, before this whole crisis Costa was already, sort of, "campaigning" for an European post. We can argue if the case against him is weak or not, the Prosecutor's division on either to publicaly announce that Costa was being proved by the Supreme Court is telling, but everybody predicts that the Court will clear Costa and then he will be free to seek that European post. If he wants, of course. Adding to this, Costa leaves behind a lot of problems and "ticking time bombs" for the next PM, so, no wonder he seems more lighter.

Some say he could also run for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026. I may be wrong, but I'm not seeing Costa running for a post that requires a lot of interaction with people and not doing much, which is totally contrary to his introvertness and desire to be very active in day to day politics and decision making.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %:

Pedro Nuno Santos as PS leader:

29% PS (-2)
26% PSD (+1)
15% CHEGA (+2)
  6% IL (+3)
  6% BE (nc)
  4% CDU (-2)
  3% PAN (+1)
  1% Livre (+1)
  1% CDS (-1)
  3% Others (+1)
  6% Blank/Invalid (-2)

José Luís Carneiro as PS leader:

30% PS (-1)
25% PSD (nc)
15% CHEGA (+2)
  6% IL (+3)
  5% BE (-1)
  3% CDU (-3)
  3% PAN (+1)
  2% Livre (+1)
  2% CDS (nc)
  3% Others (+1)
  6% Blank/Invalid (-2)

Government's approval:

69% Bad/Very bad (+3)
27% Good/Very good (-1)
  4% Undecided (-2)

Poll conducted between 18 and 27 November 2023. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

PS leadership ballot update: One week to go.

- Pedro Nuno Santos had an "issue" in his campaign this week. The teachers' "war" with the Government continues, but, the minister of Education has made a major flip-flop. João Costa, a supporter of Nuno Santos, now says that there is margin to pay teachers their full frozen career and wage progressions, even though he has, for years now, said that there is no money for that. Teachers unions reacted by saying that no one in the government can be trusted, while Carneiro supporters say that João Costa was disloyal to PM Costa. Pedro Nuno Santos has now a much more praiser tone towards António Costa;

- José Luís Carneiro continues with his moderate, sensible approach. If PNS tries to not discuss possible deals and only attacks the rightwing, Carneiro continues to show a moderate posture, suggesting talks with the PSD for budget deals and that his goal is to pursue balance budget policies and reach broad agreements for the country. The mood in Carneiro's campaign is more and more optimistic with many banking that, because the PS membership is quite old age, party members could feel more "safe" with Carneiro rather than with PNS, that has the support of basically all local leaderships;

The recent ISCTE poll for SIC TV and Expresso newspaper also points to a closer race for the leadership:

Q: Which of these two candidates do you think would achieve a better electoral result for the party?

All voters:

26% Pedro Nuno Santos
24% José Luís Carneiro
28% Indifferent
22% Undecided

PS voters:

37% Pedro Nuno Santos
32% José Luís Carneiro
16% Indifferent
15% Undecided

Poll conducted between 18 and 27 November 2023. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

The poll also shows that Carneiro polls better than PNS in honesty, competency and experience. PNS only wins Carneiro in strong and frontal.

[Mike88]

Political updates:

- PM Costa gave an interview to CNN Portugal, and earlier made a few remarks to the same channel, in which he criticized both the President and the Attorney-General adding that he's "not angry, but hurt".

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1734332308474167453

“The President of the Republic made a wrong assessment when going to elections. We are all judged by results.”

During the morning, while he was preparing for his last Parliamentary debate as PM, Costa made a few remarks to CNN/TVI. He said he's "hurt but not angry", adding he's does not regret resigning and would do it all over again, but criticized both President Marcelo and Attorney-General Lucília Gago for their actions. In the interview, during the evening, the tone was the same. He criticized President Marcelo's decision to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election, saying it was a "wrong call", and adding that if the AG had not written the "famous" paragraph, he would have waited for the judge to decide on the accusation, but that he would resign anyway due to the hidden money being found in his chief of staff's office. He pressed, again, that he's "hurt, but conformed". Regarding the PS leadership, Costa says that either PNS or Carneiro are better than Luís Montenegro, and that he isn't bothered by a new PS leader who could defend different things than he did. He then pressed on his "legacy" of balance budgets and so on, even citting Paul Krugman who said that Portugal was an "economic miracle". Costa, nonetheless, said he's frustrated to not finish his full term. About his future, Costa said that going back to law practice is unlikely after decades in political life, but that he will not become a pundit, in summary he did not reveal much;

- Azores regional elections will be held on 4 February 2024. The call was made by President Marcelo after meeting with the Council of State, which overwhelmingly supported the decision and the date proposed by President of the Azores, José Manuel Bolieiro, was also approved;

- PS leadership vote compass: Observador newspaper made their usual vote compass, this time for the PS ballot: Observador vote compass. My results were 65% for José Luís Carneiro and 48% for PNS;

[Mike88]

Updates:

- Final day of campaigning for the PS leadership ballot. The three candidates on the ballot will end their campaigns today as voting will start tomorrow. Pedro Nuno Santos campaign is very confident in victory and PNS acts as if he were already leader of the PS. His opponent campaign, José Luís Carneiro, says that their supporters are receiving "threats" for supporting Carneiro from PNS supporters, with some Carneiro supporters warning that "they have to be on alert during voting hours" and fiscalize the voting process;

- The "Twins affair" continues in the news. This time because an audit conducted by Santa Maria Hospital concluded that it was the Secretary of State for Health in 2019, Lacerda Sales, who called the hospital to schedule a doctor's appointment for the Luso-Brazilian twins. If this is illegal or not, is a big question mark, but Lacerda Sales continues to deny that he scheduled an appointment for for the twins. He also says he had no meetings or talks with President Marcelo's son, Nuno Rebelo de Sousa. In fact, President Marcelo's role in this whole affair has damaged greatly his image: A poll, from Aximage to DN newspaper, shows that 35% of voters say that Marcelo doesn't have conditions to finish his term, while less than half, 48%, says that he can and should carry on;

- In Lisbon city, the arrest of one of the biggest drug dealers in the city, Heitor Brandão, is "haunting" another very controversial figure in the city's politics. Luís Newton, PSD-Lisbon chairman and President of Estrela parish had his name involved in this arrest as the police says he's very close to the Brandão, and, in social media, Newton has been photographed several times with Brandão. Newton is denying accusations that he was aware of these crimes and presses that he's not a friend of Brandão, adding that they only had a connection because of the institutions Brandão headed. Newton also adds that the suspicions that he was a client of Brandão, in which he and others would allegedly receive drugs and prostitutes, are just untrue and "caracter assassination." This is not the first time Luís Newton is involved in controversies: He is involved in several judicial investigations, the paid trips to the Euro 2016 case and the "Tutti-Frutti" corruption investigation, but he was never charged of anything;