🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[crals]

PPM's monarchism is irrelevant. In the Azores (the only place in the country where they are relevant) they are a fairly standard center-right party with a green-ish agrarian focus.

One month until the Azores election. Any take of the mood there in the Azores, Crals?

Well, the regional government's rejected budget was viewed fairly positively and there was some anger over its rejection and the fact it caused yet another early election, so I'd say that at the moment the government is favoured to win. If PSD/CDS/PPM don't win an outright majority maybe they can cobble a majority together with PAN like in Madeira.

[Mike88]

PPM's monarchism is irrelevant. In the Azores (the only place in the country where they are relevant) they are a fairly standard center-right party with a green-ish agrarian focus.

One month until the Azores election. Any take of the mood there in the Azores, Crals?

Well, the regional government's rejected budget was viewed fairly positively and there was some anger over its rejection and the fact it caused yet another early election, so I'd say that at the moment the government is favoured to win. If PSD/CDS/PPM don't win an outright majority maybe they can cobble a majority together with PAN like in Madeira.

JPP could also be an option, if they're able to win a seat or two of course, as they are running Carlos Furtado, the CHEGA dissident, and I believe that Furtado was the sole MP outside the coalition to vote in favour of the budget. But, not sure if JPP has any chance of winning a seat.

[VPH]

PPM's monarchism is irrelevant. In the Azores (the only place in the country where they are relevant) they are a fairly standard center-right party with a green-ish agrarian focus.

PPM was one of the first parties in Portugal to raise environmental issues on the campaign trail, thanks to founder Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, a famous landscape architect and political thinker. He began in the anti-Salazar monarchist camp (yes, it was a thing) and ended up aligning with PS and then founding the Earth Party too (who had a surprising performance in the 2014 EU election and then basically vanished from the face of the earth).

[Mike88]

PSD and CDS approve the revamped Democratic Alliance (AD):

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1743061643024638316

PSD National Council approves coalition. CDS guarantees at least two MPs

The PSD and CDS approved, last night, in their respectives National Council meetings, the new version of the Democratic Alliance (AD), that includes PSD, CDS, PPM and independents. In terms of seats distribution, the CDS will be given two "safe seats" in Lisbon and Porto and two seats in the "gray area" in 10th place in Aveiro and 11th in Braga. PPM will be given the 19th place in the Lisbon list, very unlikely to be elected. The complete lists of candidates will be approved in 10 days. The official launch of the AD will be next Sunday, just hours after the closure of the PS National Congress in Lisbon.

[Flyersfan232]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

This is more a way to "reenact" the real Democratic Alliance of 1979, which also included PPM. But, back then PPM had a strong leader, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, and now it's just a minor, underline minor, party that only survives due to the local and regional coalitions with the PSD. Back in 2005, PPM also ran in the PSD lists for the general elections. Also, the party has a lot of financial problems and being in a coalition with the PSD is actually helpful for them as it mitigates the problem, and if their lucky, winning a seat will grant them public financing.

Adding more info, PPM has no relationship whatsoever with the Bragança family, the Portuguese Royal Family, and in the past both were totally at odds, at a point that ended in a Court of law. I think that the party doesn't even accept Dom Duarte Pio's claim to the Portuguese Throne, but I'm not so sure about this.

the current president is also a monarchist he was to the pretender daughter wedding last summer too

[Flyersfan232]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

This is more a way to "reenact" the real Democratic Alliance of 1979, which also included PPM. But, back then PPM had a strong leader, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, and now it's just a minor, underline minor, party that only survives due to the local and regional coalitions with the PSD. Back in 2005, PPM also ran in the PSD lists for the general elections. Also, the party has a lot of financial problems and being in a coalition with the PSD is actually helpful for them as it mitigates the problem, and if their lucky, winning a seat will grant them public financing.

Adding more info, PPM has no relationship whatsoever with the Bragança family, the Portuguese Royal Family, and in the past both were totally at odds, at a point that ended in a Court of law. I think that the party doesn't even accept Dom Duarte Pio's claim to the Portuguese Throne, but I'm not so sure about this.

who do they support instead and why don’t they actually support don Duarte Pop guy?

[Mike88]

the current president is also a monarchist he was to the pretender daughter wedding last summer too

I believe you are refering to Nuno Câmara Pereira, who is the brother of the Gonçalo Câmara Pereira the current leader of PPM. Nuno Câmara Pereira, who at a point also was part of the leadership of PPM, had a long legal fight with D. Duarte Pio regarding somekind of use of image or whatever, but it seems that they have buried the hatchet. If he went to last October royal wedding, I'm not sure.

who do they support instead and why don’t they actually support don Duarte Pop guy?

Not sure if this claim continues, but they supported that the "real" heir to the Portuguese throne were the descendants of the Duke of Loulé, a noble who was Prime Minister during the Constitutional Monarchy. The base of this claim was that the 1st Duke of Loulé married the youngest daughter of King John VI (1816-26). They also claimed that an unconfirmed illegitimate daughter of King Carlos I had more legitimacy to the Throne than D. Duarte Pio. The reason for the opinion of D. Duarte not being the real heir was because he's a descendant of King Miguel I (1828-34), who, after the Portuguese Civil War (1832-34), was banned from the sucession line to the throne. However, this was revoked during the Estado Novo regime.

[Mike88]

PS Congress this weekend: The "curtain falls" for Costa's near 10-year leadership with a warning, "They may have knocked me down, but they didn't defeat me".

Costa's final speech as PS leader

The 24th PS Congress, that will "coronate" Pedro Nuno Santos as new leader, started this Friday night with the last speech of António Costa as party leader. Costa started his speech by reminding the "traumatic" situation of the last two months, but pressed that the party is united and will win the March election, predicting that PNS will be the first PM born after the 1974 revolution. He went on to "praise" Pedro Nuno Santos, saying he will give a new boost to the party and "carry on what needs to be carried on, and change what needs to changed". He said that the party will always try to find new causes and remembered the 2015 "Geringonça" deal as an example. He then started criticizing the rightwing opposition, saying that the "devil" didn't arrive because, for him, the "devil" is the rightwing and the people didn't give them a victory, warning that if they return to power, they will try to erase what was achieved in the near 9-year term of the PS. In the final part, he thanked everyone who supported him as leader, saying that one "suffers" in this job and finalized by saying that "They may have knocked me down, but they didn't defeat me, nor they defeated the PS". PNS then shared the stage with Costa as the "Costa era" in the PS ends.

[Mike88]

PS Congress ends with Pedro Nuno Santos' first official speech as party leader:

Pedro Nuno Santos closing speech

Pedro Nuno Santos, PS leader, ended the party's congress in Lisbon city with his primetime speech. He started by saying that "it's our time to begin a new stage" and that with Costa's era now over, it's time to write a new chapter in the party's history. He then talked about the "values of April" that cannot be reversed and said that "other people's problems, are our problems", drawing a line between the PS and PSD, in which he labeled the latter as an "individualistic" party. He then said he wants a country that can dream big and that he doesn't want a country within the European average, but one that stands at the top, with good quality of life, security and innovation. He then promissed a minimum wage of 1,000 euros by 2028, increase in social housing, and a NHS in which its workers feel respected and motivated. He also proposed a "new" economic policy, more selective in terms of supports in order to create a more sophisticated and diverse economy. Adding to the previous proposals, PNS also said he wants a reform of social security financing but without privatizing it, something he accuses the PSD of wanting to do. He closed his speech by saying he will be a decisive and forward leader and that "Portugal cannot wait".

[Mike88]

PSD, CDS and PPM present the "Democratic Alliance" in Porto city:

This afternoon, in Porto city, the leaders of PSD, CDS, PPM and other Independents, officially launched the "Democratic Alliance" (AD). The first speech of the ceremony, and representing the Independents, was Miguel Guimarães, former president of the order of physicians, which accused the PS government of "destroying the NHS" and that he couldn't remain silent while this is happening. Then spoke the leader of PPM, Gonçalo Câmara Pereira, which warned about the danger of the "eternalization of the left" in power, and defended family values as an antidote for the demographic winter that Portugal is facing. CDS leader, Nuno Melo, said that the AD is the only capable alternative to give a new direction to the country and criticized the government's health, immigration and anti-poverty policies. PSD leader Luís Montenegro was the last to speak and said that the AD, unlike the PS, isn't a "resentful" movement and that the AD will be a project for a good government, pressing on topics like NHS, pensions and poverty.

Logo of the Democratic Alliance

[VPH]

I quite liked the PPM leader's speech at the AD announcement, probably owing to my very Catholic brand of politics. But I'm not voting AD just for PPM who look unlikely to get a seat and don't really trust PSD or CDS-PP. I'll likely stick with PS like last time (which I align with based on my approval of their economic stances), just less enthusiastically. We'll see what protest vote options I have though.

[Mike88]

I quite liked the PPM leader's speech at the AD announcement, probably owing to my very Catholic brand of politics. But I'm not voting AD just for PPM who look unlikely to get a seat and don't really trust PSD or CDS-PP. I'll likely stick with PS like last time (which I align with based on my approval of their economic stances), just less enthusiastically. We'll see what protest vote options I have though.

You'll always have Tino de Rans' party.

I'm voting AD although I have no confidence at all in Montenegro, but I have even less confidence in Pedro Nuno Santos. I would considered voting IL if they were still led by Cotrim Figueiredo, but Rui Rocha is a total casting error, so no way.

[VPH]

I quite liked the PPM leader's speech at the AD announcement, probably owing to my very Catholic brand of politics. But I'm not voting AD just for PPM who look unlikely to get a seat and don't really trust PSD or CDS-PP. I'll likely stick with PS like last time (which I align with based on my approval of their economic stances), just less enthusiastically. We'll see what protest vote options I have though.

You'll always have Tino de Rans' party.

I'm voting AD although I have no confidence at all in Montenegro, but I have even less confidence in Pedro Nuno Santos. I would considered voting IL if they were still led by Cotrim Figueiredo, but Rui Rocha is a total casting error, so no way.

It's too bad Tino left the leadership. Not the worst protest vote in the world though!

Totally makes sense--IL is polling well in spite of Rocha it seems. Probably taking advantage of Montenegro's inability to be the strong leader the right needs.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I quite liked the PPM leader's speech at the AD announcement, probably owing to my very Catholic brand of politics. But I'm not voting AD just for PPM who look unlikely to get a seat and don't really trust PSD or CDS-PP. I'll likely stick with PS like last time (which I align with based on my approval of their economic stances), just less enthusiastically. We'll see what protest vote options I have though.

You'll always have Tino de Rans' party.

I'm voting AD although I have no confidence at all in Montenegro, but I have even less confidence in Pedro Nuno Santos. I would considered voting IL if they were still led by Cotrim Figueiredo, but Rui Rocha is a total casting error, so no way.

It's too bad Tino left the leadership. Not the worst protest vote in the world though!

Totally makes sense--IL is polling well in spite of Rocha it seems. Probably taking advantage of Montenegro's inability to be the strong leader the right needs.

I'm (obviously) not as tuned in as the two of you are and I had not heard about him in a while - what are Rocha's problems?

[Mike88]

I quite liked the PPM leader's speech at the AD announcement, probably owing to my very Catholic brand of politics. But I'm not voting AD just for PPM who look unlikely to get a seat and don't really trust PSD or CDS-PP. I'll likely stick with PS like last time (which I align with based on my approval of their economic stances), just less enthusiastically. We'll see what protest vote options I have though.

You'll always have Tino de Rans' party.

I'm voting AD although I have no confidence at all in Montenegro, but I have even less confidence in Pedro Nuno Santos. I would considered voting IL if they were still led by Cotrim Figueiredo, but Rui Rocha is a total casting error, so no way.

It's too bad Tino left the leadership. Not the worst protest vote in the world though!

Totally makes sense--IL is polling well in spite of Rocha it seems. Probably taking advantage of Montenegro's inability to be the strong leader the right needs.

I'm (obviously) not as tuned in as the two of you are and I had not heard about him in a while - what are Rocha's problems?

He's not a very strong leader, as IL has experienced a lot of internal feuds and doesn't have the same image that Cotrim had, of a moderate, sensible leader. IL has hold up in the polls, but like VPH said, it's more due to the PSD inability of being credible at this point.

[Mike88]

A few updates:

- At the fourth try, there is a new party in Portugal, the "New Right" Nova Direita (ND). After being rejected three times by the Constitutional Court, the Court accepted the latest inscription and the party can now run in the 10 March general elections. The party's leader is Ossanda Liber;

- The PSD has lost a MP just 5 days before the dissolution of Parliament. Maló de Abreu, an ally of former PSD leader Rui Rio, has announced he will leave the party and sit as an Independent until the end of the current Parliament. In a statement to the press, he says he's against the party's strategy for the elections. However, there are rumours that he could be a candidate in CHEGA's lists;

It's too bad Tino left the leadership. Not the worst protest vote in the world though!

I think he will be the headlist candidate for Porto district. So, he's not totally gone yet.

[VPH]

Nova Direita is an eclectic and intriguing mix of positions--economic nationalism, pro-life, for integral ecology, anti-woke. I don't imagine they'll catch on a ton but their presence does complicate things on the right somewhat. At least with Paulo Freitas do Amaral, it seems his reasoning in joining was in part that CDS-PP was too economically anti-statist.

https://novadireita.pt/portugal-e-possivel/

[Red Velvet]

Nova Direita is an eclectic and intriguing mix of positions--economic nationalism, pro-life, for integral ecology, anti-woke. I don't imagine they'll catch on a ton but their presence does complicate things on the right somewhat. At least with Paulo Freitas do Amaral, it seems his reasoning in joining was in part that CDS-PP was too economically anti-statist.

https://novadireita.pt/portugal-e-possivel/

They seem a much better Right than the sell—outs in Chega who simply mix Bolsonarism with Euro white nationalism.

It’s so good to see outright Populism more openly embraced these days, with the combination of Economic Left-Wing positions with Social Right-Wing ones.

I wish the Right in Brazil was more like this, following trends by the Right in USA and Europe as they look up to these places more. But outside rhetoric there’s nothing really new about them at all.

[Mike88]

Nova Direita is an eclectic and intriguing mix of positions--economic nationalism, pro-life, for integral ecology, anti-woke. I don't imagine they'll catch on a ton but their presence does complicate things on the right somewhat. At least with Paulo Freitas do Amaral, it seems his reasoning in joining was in part that CDS-PP was too economically anti-statist.

https://novadireita.pt/portugal-e-possivel/

They seem a much better Right than the sell—outs in Chega who simply mix Bolsonarism with Euro white nationalism.

It’s so good to see outright Populism more openly embraced these days, with the combination of Economic Left-Wing positions with Social Right-Wing ones.

I wish the Right in Brazil was more like this, following trends by the Right in USA and Europe as they look up to these places more. But outside rhetoric there’s nothing really new about them at all.

I don't think ND will have a lot of votes, the rightwing "market" is very concentrated on CHEGA right now, and it will be difficult to any party at the right of PSD/IL to make any breakthrough. If CHEGA somehow disappears, the story would be different. But, then again, who knows. Also, let's wait for the debates, especially the smaller parties debate, which is always something to look forward to.

Also, there's a complete confusion regarding the PSD MP that left the party: He says that the report about his inclusion in CHEGA's lists is a total lie, but Ventura is already "preaching" that their lists will have a lot of former and current PSD MPs. I don't know for sure, but this reeks of "fake news" strategy from CHEGA in order to disrupt the PSD. The PS has already "taken the bait". We'll see.

[crals]

ND is arguably more distant from the mainstream than Chega, as they are sovereignist and Ossanda has made pro-neutrality statements. Ventura otoh has never challenged the EU or NATO, despite the party including some pro-Putin lunatics like Maria Vieira.

[Mike88]

The "tsunami" of debates has just been announced. A total of 30 debates between all parties will be broadcast during February.

Here's the list:

5 February: PS vs IL (SIC)
                  CHEGA vs PAN (RTP3)

6 February: CDU vs PAN (RTP3)
                  PSD vs BE (TVI)
                  CHEGA vs IL (SIC Notícias)

7 February: IL vs Livre (CNN Portugal)

8 February: BE vs Livre (SIC Notícias)

9 February: IL vs PAN (SIC Notícias)
                  PS vs Livre (RTP1)
                  CHEGA vs CDU (CNN Portugal)

10 February: PSD vs CDU (RTP1)
                    PS vs PAN (TVI)

11 February: PSD vs PAN (SIC)
                    BE vs CDU (SIC Notícias)

12 February: PSD vs CHEGA (RTP1)

13 February: CDU vs Livre (CNN Portugal)
                    CHEGA vs BE (RTP3)

14 February: Livre vs PAN (RTP3)
                    PS vs CHEGA (TVI)
                    IL vs CDU (RTP3)

15 February: IL vs BE (CNN Portugal)

16 February: PS vs BE (RTP1)
                    PSD vs IL (SIC)
                    CHEGA vs Livre (SIC Notícias)

17 February: PSD vs Livre (TVI)
                    PS vs CDU (SIC)

18 February: BE vs PAN (CNN Portugal)

19 February: PS vs PSD (RTP1, SIC, TVI)

20 February: Minor parties debate (RTP1)

23 February: PS vs PSD vs CHEGA vs IL vs CDU vs BE vs PAN vs Livre (RTP1)

Not sure if the radios will also broadcast a debate.

[Mike88]

CHEGA's 6th national convention, in 5 years, is being held in Viana do Castelo city this weekend.

The event is being quite massive for CHEGA's standards, as they were able to gather as many delegates in a convention as PS and PSD usually do, around 1,000. Ventura is clearly wanting to give a more "moderate and responsable" image to the party, although some of his proposals are just "crazy", but many of his supporters are not helping at all. One of them, that is becoming viral, was a CHEGA member who said he's a "father, a grandfather and... a fascist":

https://twitter.com/FredericoIngles/status/1746247579090768284

Will write tomorrow a more detailed post on the convention and Ventura's closing speech.

[Mike88]

CHEGA's 6th convention: A pitch to give a "responsable" image that failed completely.

André Ventura's closing speech

The size of the venue, the number of delegates, the decor and the organization of CHEGA's 6th convention surprised many, with hints that the party would try to give a more "responsable and moderate" image to itself. On paper, that seemed to be the plan, but then the speeches came and everything "went down the drain", with the usual weird, contradictory and embarassing statements. If Ventura dropped proposals like life imprisonment and chemical castration, he started going against neutral gender policies and proposed increasing lower pensions to the level of the minimum wage, all paid by EU funds.

In his prime time speech, Ventura said that CHEGA's DNA will never be damaged by the entry of people from other parties, but then "pointed" to the PSD saying that Portugal has lost hope in others, and that the people know "the path to defeat socialism." He then used the recent police protests to criticize the government and promissed to give equal supports to all security forces. Then, Ventura started to "attack" the PS and Pedro Nuno Santos, by labeling the PS as a "virus" much more contagious than Covid, and that PNS has only "lies and spin" to offer. He pressed, once again, on the promise to increase lower pensions to the level of the NMW, and pledged to resign if, in office, he failed to reach that goal. He promissed to repeal the current nationality law, thus forcing immigrants to speak Portuguese in order to live in the country, and wants to wage a war against "subsidydependency". He closed his speech by saying he's ready to be PM and to "give his life for Portugal".

[Mike88]

President Marcelo signed the decree that dissolves Parliament this morning:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1746852301539561561

The President of the Republic signed this Monday the decree that formalizes the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of early legislative elections for March 10th - following the November 9th communication to the country.

As expected, President Marcelo signed the official decree that dissolves Parliament and calls an election, this time for 10 March 2024. By law, the President is mandated to dissolve Parliament 55 days before election day, and the last day to do that was today, Monday 15 January. After tomorrow and until a new one is sworn in, Parliament will be managed by a Permanent Committee headed by the Speaker and a few MPs from all parties.

[Mike88]

Azores election update:

Election day is in less than 3 weeks. Parties are already on the ground with rallies and other events.

PSD/CDS/PPM coalition rally in Ponta Delgada city:

PS rally in Lajes do Pico, Pico island:

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, campaigned last week in several islands:

BE dinner with the presence of former party leader Catarina Martins:

Other parties like IL, PAN, JPP and CDU haven't made, yet, big events and/or rallies.