🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Battista Minola 1616]

The implication of those scenario polls, that a significant chunk of CHEGA supporters would vote for a united PSD/CDS list if those ran together is interesting. I assume they are all former CDS voters who are very right-wing but strategic and see their previous party (correctly) as a spent force by itself. Perhaps this will be the key to the next election and end up avoiding an awkward grand coalition?

[Mike88]

The implication of those scenario polls, that a significant chunk of CHEGA supporters would vote for a united PSD/CDS list if those ran together is interesting. I assume they are all former CDS voters who are very right-wing but strategic and see their previous party (correctly) as a spent force by itself. Perhaps this will be the key to the next election and end up avoiding an awkward grand coalition?

A grand coalition is just impossible. Pedro Nuno Santos has rejected it, and the PSD will never accept working with PNS. If Carneiro had been elected PS leader, a grand coalition would still be difficult, but the PS-PSD would have a much better "working relationship".

I wouldn't put much credibility in the polls, the electoral scenario is still wide open and a ton of voters don't know yet what will they do with their vote. When you have probably the worst field of candidates in recent memory, adding to this the complicated situation in many areas of government, polling could be misleading as people are not sure who they want or even what they want.

Not sure if the PSD/CDS coalition will attract a part of CHEGA voters, in fact, that poll actually surprised me. CDS has been almost in a "coma" since the 2022 election, and is slowly becoming a "section" of the PSD, not to mention that the coalition announcement was very "lukewarm", just a press release. The strategies are basically clear: PS will press, day and night, about CHEGA, CHEGA, CHEGA and that the PSD is "doomed to negociate" with Ventura, warning that the PS is the only "stable" solution (we'll see if that works); PSD/CDS will also try to distance themselves from CHEGA, warning about the possibility of a more "extreme" Geringonça 2.0 and that the coalition is the only "stable" solution. (see the similarities with the PS?)

But, again, a lot of people are still undecided, the mood about the election is not very positive, on the contrary, so all will depend on the campaign.

[VPH]

This return to a coalition ticket is probably CDS' last chance to get people elected. If they had run alone again and tanked once again, I don't see how they would have a future.

[Conservatopia]

I'd be tempted by Chega but I prefer Porto to Benfica so clearly not the party for me.

[Mike88]

I'd be tempted by Chega but I prefer Porto to Benfica so clearly not the party for me.

For me, that's reason nº 3 and 5 to never vote in that party or man.

In fact, there's proof that the Porto area is anti-CHEGA: In the 2022 election, CHEGA only got 4% of the vote in the Porto urban area, against the nationwide 7%, and the latest polls show CHEGA polling well bellow the national average in the Porto area. On the other hand, IL has a very strong base in Porto. Football and politics don't usually mix in Portugal, Rui Rio is evidence of this, but Ventura's strong attachment to Benfica and his defense of his club while a pundit on CMTV, has made him a "persona non grata" to a majority of Porto fans.

[VPH]

I'd be tempted by Chega but I prefer Porto to Benfica so clearly not the party for me.

For me, that's reason nº 3 and 5 to never vote in that party or man.

In fact, there's proof that the Porto area is anti-CHEGA: In the 2022 election, CHEGA only got 4% of the vote in the Porto urban area, against the nationwide 7%, and the latest polls show CHEGA polling well bellow the national average in the Porto area. On the other hand, IL has a very strong base in Porto. Football and politics don't usually mix in Portugal, Rui Rio is evidence of this, but Ventura's strong attachment to Benfica and his defense of his club while a pundit on CMTV, has made him a "persona non grata" to a majority of Porto fans.

I would imagine the Porto area is more educated than a lot of the country, right? Probably doesn't help CHEGA and explains why IL and BE do well there.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I root against the big three (Porto, Benfica, Sporting) as a matter of principle. Força Braga!

My heart would be with island teams but there aren't any in Primeira Liga this year. Also RIP Vitória Setúbal...

[Mike88]

I'd be tempted by Chega but I prefer Porto to Benfica so clearly not the party for me.

For me, that's reason nº 3 and 5 to never vote in that party or man.

In fact, there's proof that the Porto area is anti-CHEGA: In the 2022 election, CHEGA only got 4% of the vote in the Porto urban area, against the nationwide 7%, and the latest polls show CHEGA polling well bellow the national average in the Porto area. On the other hand, IL has a very strong base in Porto. Football and politics don't usually mix in Portugal, Rui Rio is evidence of this, but Ventura's strong attachment to Benfica and his defense of his club while a pundit on CMTV, has made him a "persona non grata" to a majority of Porto fans.

I would imagine the Porto area is more educated than a lot of the country, right? Probably doesn't help CHEGA and explains why IL and BE do well there.

If were talking about the Porto metro area, the rate of college degrees is 21%, against the national average of 19.8%. If you sum just the Porto urban area, it jumps to 24%, a bit higher but nothing that substantial. Now, Porto city alone has 35% of the population with a college degree, just behind Lisbon city at 41% and Oeiras city at 38%. In these three cities, in 2022, CHEGA polled well bellow the national average, between 3-5%, while the Liberals polled above 10%. The big rate of college graduates in these 3 cities explains the low results of CHEGA, and also the PS, and the high results of IL, as more educated voters, according to exit poll data, tend to vote more "liberal", PSD+IL, and less on the left. Regarding BE, they have a stronger showing in Porto, while in the Lisbon area, it's Livre who has a big voting base in college degrees.

I root against the big three (Porto, Benfica, Sporting) as a matter of principle. Força Braga!

My heart would be with island teams but there aren't any in Primeira Liga this year. Also RIP Vitória Setúbal...

Don't want to derail this thread, this could be discussed in the Portuguese general discussion thread, but around 15 years ago, Braga city was a massive Benfica stronghold. And in reality, basically everybody I know from Braga, was a Benfica fan. Now they are basically all Braga fans, but, for many Porto fans, Braga supporters are still "undercover" Benfica fans.

[Mike88]

And Luís Montenegro's house came back to "haunt" him: Public Prosecutor opens an inquiry surrounding the case.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1740801365335843240

The Attorney General's Office opened an investigation into the tax benefits attributed to Luís Montenegro's house, in Espinho.

After months making news, Luís Montenegro's infamous house in Espinho city, came back to the news. The Public Prosecutor office announced that they received an anonymous complaint against Montenegro and has open an inquiry against "John Doe" surrounding the case, with no suspects at this point. The main suspicion is if Montenegro was given a VAT tax benefit when he shouldn't. Montenegro reacted to the Prosecutor's announcement by saying that he has "every interest in the matter finally being put to rest", although pressing that he's sure he didn't do anything "illegal or ethically immoral".

[Mike88]

Update on the Azores elections:

In reality there will be 11 lists on the ballot, not 10. A coalition between MPT-Earth Party and Alliance was submitted to the Courts, but because the Constitutional Court only gave the approval for the coalition one day after the deadline, the registration of the coalition was put on hold and it was now accepted.

Final list of parties and coalitions running in the Azores February 4th 2024 regional election:

Islands running; Abbreviation; Name; Ideology

9 ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing
9 BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
9 CH - CHEGA, far-right
7 IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
5 JPP - Together for the People, center
9 L - Livre, center-left
9 MPT.ALIANÇA - Coalition "Alternative 21", center-right
9 PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
9 PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
9 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - Coalition "PSD/CDS/PPM", center-right
9 PS - Socialist Party, center-left

[Mike88]

Preferred PM polls:

Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

28.2% Pedro Nuno Santos
24.1% Luís Montenegro
  4.1% Both
31.4% Neither
12.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 December 2023. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

37% Pedro Nuno Santos
34% Luís Montenegro
29% Undecided

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 December 2023. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[VPH]

I wish they would poll a hypothetical with Ventura in there. I can't envision a realistic scenario where he's an option for PM but I would be curious how many prefer him to a scandal-ridden PS or Montenegro, who has been a weak leader for the PSD afflicted with his own scandals.

[Mike88]

I wish they would poll a hypothetical with Ventura in there. I can't envision a realistic scenario where he's an option for PM but I would be curious how many prefer him to a scandal-ridden PS or Montenegro, who has been a weak leader for the PSD afflicted with his own scandals.

I think he would poll around 20%, not much more than that in my opinion. He has a very big high rejection rate, so he would have an electoral ceiling. They could also poll other names, for example Passos Coelho, because the PSD is "slowly coming to terms" that Montenegro is not going to make it and his decision to govern only if he is the most voted, is making parts of the PSD "furious", and they are hinting to the press that "whatever, if he doesn't want it, there are other people who can do the job".

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

34.1% PS (+1.2)
24.8% PSD (-1.9)
16.3% CHEGA (+0.1)
  6.3% BE (-0.6)
  4.1% IL (-0.9)
  3.7% PAN (+0.8 )
  2.7% CDU (-0.5)
  1.8% Livre (-0.2)
  1.2% CDS (-0.3)
  5.0% Others/Invalid (+2.3)

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 December 2023. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

President's New Year message: "The people, and only the people, are the ones who order the most."

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1741925290467885539

Marcelo calls for voting in the General elections: "The people, and only the people, are the ones who give the most orders"

In an unusual move, as Presidents normally pre-record their messages, President Marcelo decided to deliver a live New Year message. Marcelo wished everyone a happy New Year and recalled his message from one year ago, saying "it was clear": That 2023 would be challenging year, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the restart of the Israeli-Palestine conflict, and that balanced budgets, growth, jobs and exports are essencial, but if they don't reduce poverty, and ensure better healthcare and education, there is no "social justice". He then highlighted the big electoral year of 2024, with big decisions in "Portugal, Europe and the World", especially the US. He pressed that people need to vote, that "Democracy is never afraid to give the people their say" and that 2024 will be what the people decide. He remembered that 2024 will mark 50 years of democracy in Portugal, and compared the Portugal of 1974 with the current year, signaling that "Without a vote, there is no democracy" and that the "The people, and only the people, are the ones who give the most orders".

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1742247682591334900

[Mike88]

Nothing surprising in that. Ventura supported Bolsonaro in 2022, Bolsonaro supports Ventura in 2024.

In other electoral news, PPM has retracted their earlier position and will now be part of the PSD/CDS "Democratic Alliance" for the March elections:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1742555573793534288

PPM agrees to join the Democratic Alliance with PSD and CDS

When the AD 2.0 was announced two weeks ago, PPM, the People's Monarchist Party, labeled the new AD as "shameful" and that the conditions that the PSD offered were unacceptable, adding that the current PSD and CDS leaders weren't strong of credible enough. Well, two weeks passed and PPM retracted their earlier position and will now be part of the Democratic Alliance alongside PSD and CDS, in which the current PSD/CDS leaders are "strong" and hear the "voice of Portugal". Meetings were held between PSD and PPM and the parties reached a deal that was announced this afternoon by the PSD. PPM is set to be given a seat in the "gray area" in the Lisbon district list, which means that mathematically then can win a seat, but it's unlikely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

[Red Velvet]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

Is it any surprise though? It was the same alliance we had between Bolsonaro and Brazilian Monarchists, with them literally electing the Orleans e Bragança guy who would be a “Brazilian Prince” in a hypothetical Brazilian monarchy today, as a hard-right congressman.

[Mike88]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

This is more a way to "reenact" the real Democratic Alliance of 1979, which also included PPM. But, back then PPM had a strong leader, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, and now it's just a minor, underline minor, party that only survives due to the local and regional coalitions with the PSD. Back in 2005, PPM also ran in the PSD lists for the general elections. Also, the party has a lot of financial problems and being in a coalition with the PSD is actually helpful for them as it mitigates the problem, and if their lucky, winning a seat will grant them public financing.

Adding more info, PPM has no relationship whatsoever with the Bragança family, the Portuguese Royal Family, and in the past both were totally at odds, at a point that ended in a Court of law. I think that the party doesn't even accept Dom Duarte Pio's claim to the Portuguese Throne, but I'm not so sure about this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

This is more a way to "reenact" the real Democratic Alliance of 1979, which also included PPM. But, back then PPM had a strong leader, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, and now it's just a minor, underline minor, party that only survives due to the local and regional coalitions with the PSD. Back in 2005, PPM also ran in the PSD lists for the general elections. Also, the party has a lot of financial problems and being in a coalition with the PSD is actually helpful for them as it mitigates the problem, and if their lucky, winning a seat will grant them public financing.

Adding more info, PPM has no relationship whatsoever with the Bragança family, the Portuguese Royal Family, and in the past both were totally at odds, at a point that ended in a Court of law. I think that the party doesn't even accept Dom Duarte Pio's claim to the Portuguese Throne, but I'm not so sure about this.

That all just makes it even more pathetic though. I know I have no room to talk when Italian coalitions regularly include the most absurd and frankly embarrassing microparties into their fold, but I thought Portuguese parties were generally a bit more discerning when picking allies.

[Mike88]

Has the Portuguese right really fallen so low that it needs to ally with f**king monarchists?? I know they probably look tame compared to the CHEGA creeps, but still, what the hell.

This is more a way to "reenact" the real Democratic Alliance of 1979, which also included PPM. But, back then PPM had a strong leader, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, and now it's just a minor, underline minor, party that only survives due to the local and regional coalitions with the PSD. Back in 2005, PPM also ran in the PSD lists for the general elections. Also, the party has a lot of financial problems and being in a coalition with the PSD is actually helpful for them as it mitigates the problem, and if their lucky, winning a seat will grant them public financing.

Adding more info, PPM has no relationship whatsoever with the Bragança family, the Portuguese Royal Family, and in the past both were totally at odds, at a point that ended in a Court of law. I think that the party doesn't even accept Dom Duarte Pio's claim to the Portuguese Throne, but I'm not so sure about this.

That all just makes it even more pathetic though. I know I have no room to talk when Italian coalitions regularly include the most absurd and frankly embarrassing microparties into their fold, but I thought Portuguese parties were generally a bit more discerning when picking allies.

Well, just like CDS, PPM is probably a party that in the short medium term will become another section of the PSD. Minor parties in Portugal have a real tough time holding on, as there is a lot of bureaucracy and rules, and if they don't present their annual accounts, the Constitutional Court can rule the extinction of a party. Because the PSD has this tradition of making a lot of coalitions with smaller rightwing parties, PPM, MPT, Aliança and others, many only run within PSD-led lists, it's a safe bet. On the left, this happens much less, as there is a history of division, and parties don't see with good eyes coalitions, the only few exceptions being the PS-CDU coalitions in the 90's for Lisbon city and scattered PS-led coalitions here and there with parties like PTP, RIR and others, only for local elections.

An example of a "massive coalition": Coimbra 2021.

[crals]

PPM's monarchism is irrelevant. In the Azores (the only place in the country where they are relevant) they are a fairly standard center-right party with a green-ish agrarian focus.

[Mike88]

PPM's monarchism is irrelevant. In the Azores (the only place in the country where they are relevant) they are a fairly standard center-right party with a green-ish agrarian focus.

One month until the Azores election. Any take of the mood there in the Azores, Crals?

[Mike88]

The weird and secretive purchase of shares of CTT, the main postal service company in Portugal, by the government in 2021:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1742936458816823354

CNN ALERT | “Obviously I knew.” Pedro Nuno Santos confirms that he agreed to purchase CTT shares

The privatization of CTT, Correios de Portugal (Postal services of Portugal), back in 2013 during the PSD/CDS government, always divided the two main parties and when the PS returned to power, in 2015, the PS wanted the State to buy some shares in the company, but nothing was done in that matter, at least known by the public. Now, it was reported that in 2021, the government ordered Parpública, the society the manages the State's shares in businesses, to buy CTT shares in secret. The goal was to buy 13% of shares, but the cost would be massive and the government only bought 0.24%. As it was bellow 2% of shares, the government wasn't mandated by market regulators to communicate the purchase, and so they didn't and demanded total secrecy about the operation. The reason for the purchase and secrecy is complicated: The media first said that this was a "demand" of BE and PCP in exchange for an approval of the budget, but the government said it was just to safeguard the company's interest against possible difficulties in renewing the concession, and that the secrecy was to not impact the value of the shares on the stock market. Pedro Nuno Santos, the minister of Infrastructures at the time, first refused to comment and threw all explanations to the Finance ministry, but today, he acknowledged that he was totally aware of the operation and approves it.

The media is criticizing the government for the secrecy and the messed up way, again, that they manage State dossiers, and "trash" the Government's explanations that it wasn't secret and that it was just in the best interest of the company. The operation, in the end, resulted in the total stop of purchase of more shares as the government fell in October 2021, and because 2 years passed without new updates, the whole operation was published by Parpública.