🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why is Fernando Medina so unpopular?

Also, do you think the PSD leadership race will be competitive or is Montenegro the overwhelming favourite?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ahahahahahahahahahahaha

CHEGA buying the CDS headquarters is terrible and also weirdly appropriate... I guess they should make it perfect by buying up a couple offices in the PCP headquarters as well.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

After the speeches, the National Anthem was sung and played, as well the "Grândola Vila Morena" song, but CHEGA MPs left the chamber as the song started to be sung.

Oh well. This is far from surprising of course, but still disappointing and terrible. Did they later claim it's a scary mean communist song or something?

Fortunately our Parliament wasn't in session today so we'll never know whether our far right would have done the same with "Bella ciao".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

After the speeches, the National Anthem was sung and played, as well the "Grândola Vila Morena" song, but CHEGA MPs left the chamber as the song started to be sung.

Oh well. This is far from surprising of course, but still disappointing and terrible. Did they later claim it's a scary mean communist song or something?

Fortunately our Parliament wasn't in session today so we'll never know whether our far right would have done the same with "Bella ciao".

There's a lot of revolution songs, Grândola Vila Morena is the most well known, but, to be honest, it isn't my favourite revolution song, I actually enjoy much more the "E depois do Adeus" de Paulo de Carvalho. It was the song that really started the revolution as when it played on the radio, on the evening of 24 April 1974, army officials knew the time had arrived:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJrtNwD_r_0

But CHEGA's attitude is just..., whatever, like you far from surprising.

I like Bella Ciao a lot, but I actually only was aware of the song after watching La casa de papel.

Lol. It's absurd to me how much that show has spread popularity of Bella ciao abroad, you're far from the only non-Italian I've seen say they only know it for this reason.

I have to say I didn't like "E depois do Adeus" much, but to each their own.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

PSD leadership: Luís Montenegro formalizes his candidacy and unveils his manifesto.

Luís Montenegro formalized, yesterday afternoon, his candidacy for the PSD leadership. He delivered 2,800 signatures in order to be on the ballot and unveiled his manifesto. In a statement to the press, in front of the PSD National Headquarters, Montenegro refused talks with CHEGA, but refused to an "accomplice in the perpetuation of the PS in power", adding that the PSD needs to be the home of all the voters who are fed up with the PS. The main policies in his manifesto are the following:

- Creation of a "negative IRS" for low wages;
- 15% IRS tax for workers until 35 years old;
- Creation of a free national kindergartens network;
- Incentives for companies and businesses to have kindergartens for employees;
- Discussion of a 4 day working week;
- Reintroduction of vocational education;
- Family doctor for all people and involve the private sector in the NHS;
- Reform of the Armed Forces with increase wages and more investment;

Montenegro's manifesto... doesn't seem particularly different from Costa's platform except in as much as "private sector in the NHS" is anathema to the PS. Is this deliberate and/or advantageous?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This budget confirms my impression that Costa has been mediocre lately - I sure hope Nuno Santos becomes PS leader (maybe sooner rather than later if Costa leaves for the EU in 2024? that sounds like a win-win as a leftist although I'm not sure how the electorate would take it) and moves the party leftwards again. Medina is also a total dud and terrible for non-ideological reasons so... Of course after all of this I also hope that among the left-wing parties, one of them dies and the other rebounds - the PCP's behaviour has been amazingly bad.

Also congratulations in advance to Luís Montenegro, who in a few hours is going to become new PSD leader barring a catastrophic collapse and polling error. Of course, even if it may be dull, I am eagerly awaiting a map of the results .

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Truly the most normal man in the world.

If André Ventura didn't exist it would be necessary to invent him (for our amusement only).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As expected, the four Euthanasia bills passed in Parliament. Now, a common bill will be drafted and sent to the President:

After the end of voting in the Chamber, there was high tension in the corridors of Parliament as a PSD MP and a CHEGA MP almost ended in violence. According to CNN Portugal, André Coelho Lima, PSD MP from Braga, and Pedro Frazão, CHEGA MP from Santarém, entered in a big brawl after the CHEGA MP called the PSD MP "miserable", during the euthanasia debate. Mr Coelho didn't heard the insult and was informed of it later and went to the CHEGA MP office to confirm it. But, everything escalated and shouting was heard all across the offices and, at one point, both had their foreheads almost touching. In the end, André Ventura was crucial in resolving the conflict and lowering the tension as he was able break up the fight.

I'm sure this procedure of passing four bills and then working out a "common one" is not unique to Portugal, but it sounds like a pretty strange thing. Did they do this to minimize the chance of the bill being rejected again?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is a big oof...

I don't know what Nuno Santos was thinking, but the result is the most embarrassing for both him and Costa. It sounds particularly surprising that the latter didn't press the issue that much given his notorious intra-party rivalry with Nuno Santos, but I suppose it was the wrong timing. Anyway, it's only been a day (but what a day) so I could be speaking early.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Costa unclear and apparently corrupted by power, the PSD ineffective in its response, CHEGA covering itself in ridicule... yes, I think the script for this Portuguese legislature is pretty clear now.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

CHEGA spend one month without higher-up sackings/resignations/defections challenge (IMPOSSIBLE). But I repeat myself...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's time for Tino de Rans and RIR to dominate the political scene ala Macron LMAO

In all seriousness, this seems like a time of political stagnation in Portugal. There's theoretically ground to Costa's left that he is risking but he also smartly knows that nobody wants to vote for the left-wing parties right now.

If Costa's strategy is really to move as far from the left as possible and force a choice between him and the far-right, then he's the more appropriate comparison with Macron... of course, I think that's bad on the merits in addition to being likely to backfire. BE and PSD are in a pretty bad state right now but this could change, and CHEGA being a total joke so far has never seemed to be that much of a hindrance to its rise, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

This was only mentioned in passing but I also imagine the whole deal will make the intra-party fight for succeeding Costa as leader even more acrimonious when the time comes.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A question for Mike: you tend to post tweets and articles from a whole lot of different newspapers, which is a good thing and presumably cancels out any bias any single one might have. But could you make a rundown of which Portuguese newspapers  lean one way or the other politically and how strongly? My impression is that your press isn't particularly partisan but I may be wrong.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some interesting polling data:

I don't think more polling from October will be released and the new ones will be conducted during this month, so, October 2022 was the first month since March 2012 in which the average of polls puts the rightwing parties ahead of the leftwing parties. During the January 2022 election campaign, there were some polls that put the right ahead of the left, but, on average, the left still got 51% to the right's 44%. Now, in October 2022, the right has 49% to the left's 47%.

Right vs Left since October 2001:

Image link

Rightwing parties (Blue): PSD, CHEGA, IL and CDS
Leftwing parties (Red): PS, CDU, BE, PAN and Livre
Other parties/Invalid (Gray)

This graph sure does make Barroso and Passos Coelho look like accidents of history, although it's obviously somewhat misleading (the ironic thing is that it's now misleading in the other direction, in the sense that for what I believe is the first time in history there are more people voting for parties right of PSD that aren't its formal allies than for parties left of PS that aren't its formal allies). However I doubt this reversal is another brief outlier given the trajectory of CHEGA and to an extent IL...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Constitutional Court has rejected, again, CHEGA's new statutes and structure and is forcing the party to remove powers from Ventura. This was the 2nd rejection of the Court and now CHEGA will have to approve new statutes for a third time. The Court says that in the current rules, Ventura has an excessive concentration of powers in him, that would undermine transparency and freedom of speech within the party. Ventura says he's surprised with the Court's ruling and will analyse the decision in a party meeting next week, and to initiate procedures to call another party congress to change the statutes.

I've never seen anywhere else a party getting busted by an actual tribunal for being too personalistic... twice. The André Ventura saga never stops being incredible. Is this whole affair a first for Portugal?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

alongside PCP

Who's gonna tell them Qatar is not a Russia ally / US enemy?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The CDU surge seems to be a real thing.

Alentejo hick Marxism will live on to another day... on the other hand, the (prospective) change in leader seems to have not been beneficial to IL. On this note, who is the favourite to succeed Figueiredo?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Pedro Nuno Santos quitting everything is... a big deal and fairly shocking. However I agree with all the local posters here that it's probably a good strategic decision (and surely he'll be relieved not having to deal with Costa apparently setting him up to fail anymore). Being a major minister was hardly helping his chances to win in the future.

Plus, a PM change is also literally impossible as Marcelo was quite clear about that: People didn't vote for a party (PS), they voted for a person (Costa). So, any change in leadership will force, with almost certainty, snap elections.

Can the PS even knife Costa and does it want to? That sounds implausible to me, at least until the EU elections are round the corner.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Its a bit like the Tories here though, isn't it.

PS still have a majority so aren't likely to be forced into an election any time soon.

A minister that lasts 26 hours in her post makes Grant Shapps' time at the Home Office look like a long tenure, even.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yes, this latest polling shift is pretty significant. However it's telling that its beneficiary has been CHEGA (and to a lesser extent IL and maybe BE) in spite of the party's continued status as a joke - a testament to how weak of an opposition leader Luis Montenegro is. I see Marcelo has also not so subtly acknowledged this fact.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What is JPP's deal beyond being a Madeira-only party? Wikipedia calls it "centrist" but of course that's hardly useful.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

That Benfica referendum is kind of surreal, but I've learnt to expect this from local votes in Portugal. Benfica is of course very famous for its football team - I wonder, is it a richer or poorer side of the city?

On a related note, I suppose this is a good place to mention I am going on holiday to Lisbon at the end of the month with some friends.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

PCP being just... PCP

https://twitter.com/ArVotacoes/status/1629174013552459777

Vote Project (PAR) In solidarity with Ukraine, on the occasion of the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukrainian territory by the Russian Federation

https://twitter.com/ArVotacoes/status/1629179035161960453

Vote Project (PCP) Condemning the escalation of confrontation and war, solidarity with its victims and demand for peace

I am in Lisbon (as I anticipated) and one of the first things I saw here was a graffiti that says "Russia, Putim + PCP = assassinos de crianças".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why does the government package seemingly drop the ball with social housing (from how you described it at least)? It would not be any more "radical" or "at war with the private sector" than whatever they're actually doing and I think it'd be more efficient and well-received.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So... is the conclusion of the crisis in the Azores simply that Bolieiro will go ahead with a minority government with case-by-case support? I don't see how anyone benefits from this.