🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Costa is going to resign.

He's going to speak at any moment.

[Mike88]

PM Costa just announced his resignation and also announced that he will not run again, adding that a "chapter in his life has ended." He pressed that he has a clean conscience but that the office of Prime Minister cannot be surrounded in suspicion.

President Marcelo has called a Council of State meeting to decide what happens next.

[DavidB.]

Very remarkable developments; this says a lot about the health and independence of the Portuguese judiciary. Will Costa be replaced by someone else or will the entire PS government resign, with snap elections coming soon?

[Farmlands]

There was no coming back from this. Just like Sócrates before him. You can only have so many PS scandals in one term, where a friendly company get all the rewards from the government without any, or at best a fake consideration of other entities, with taxpayers always footing the gigantic bills.

This time though, it struck at the center of the current administration, so there was little room for maneuvering and deniability. I'm guessing, or hoping, a new round of elections by the end of the year or early January 2024.

[jaichind]

Will there be early elections ?

[crals]

Ther is absolutely no way to avoid early elections. But my guess is that Marcelo will allow some time for the PS to select a new leader.

[brucejoel99]

Ther is absolutely no way to avoid early elections. But my guess is that Marcelo will allow some time for the PS to select a new leader.

Why is there no way to avoid early elections if the PS still has the absolute majority that it just won in an upset last year?

[crals]

Ther is absolutely no way to avoid early elections. But my guess is that Marcelo will allow some time for the PS to select a new leader.

Why is there no way to avoid early elections if the PS still has the absolute majority that it just won in an upset last year?

The President can dissolve the parliament and he has indicated that he would do it if Costa ever leaves. Even if he hadn't, there is no legitimacy left to the PS majority at this point so the unwritten rules of our democracy would prompt him to.

[Mike88]

Very remarkable developments; this says a lot about the health and independence of the Portuguese judiciary. Will Costa be replaced by someone else or will the entire PS government resign, with snap elections coming soon?

Let's not put the Portuguese Justice system in an altar. It's totally independent and it's not shy in going after "those on top", but there is a long list of fiascos in investigations: The Casa Pia scandal, the Sócrates investigation, the BES bank investigation and many others which dragged on in time and reach almost no conclusion or just a little "bang". We'll see how this investigation goes.

Now, here the situation is a bit more complicated. I personally don't think Costa did anything wrong, however, people around him, especially his so-called "best friend" Lacerda Machado, was occasionally on the news because of "sketchy" deals, and Costa is now being an indirect victim of all of this. Plus, this is the first time the Prosecutor asks the Supreme Court to investigate a sitting Prime Minister. There was basically no alternative rather than him leaving.

Will there be early elections ?

Almost certain.

Why is there no way to avoid early elections if the PS still has the absolute majority that it just won in an upset last year?

In practice that would be the solution, but in reality, Marcelo was clear back in March 2022, when the government was sworn in, that voters voted for a person, Costa, and not the party, so if the person leaves, an election has to be called. Adding to the above, this government has been a total trainwreck, with scandal after scandal, incompetence after incompetence, a mini-version of the UK government, so the only possible way out is basically fresh elections, with all the consequences it will probably have.

Ther is absolutely no way to avoid early elections. But my guess is that Marcelo will allow some time for the PS to select a new leader.

Will we have a soap opera drama "PNS vs Medina"? We'll see. Disgraced minister João Galamba is also a major suspect in this case. The mayor of Sines, Setubal district, has also been arrested.

[Cassius]

Who will be PM between now and the snap election?

[Mike88]

Who will be PM between now and the snap election?

Costa will remain as caretaker PM until new elections or a substitute is found. Elections are very, very likely, but as everyone is still in shock with what just happened, every scenario is on the table.

[Conservatopia]

Don't want to Britpost but this has a Britain circa Nov '21 - Apr '22 feel to it. During that time things were a mess but Boris (like Costa) was fairly secure.

It all turned to poo very quickly after that though. Things could go south all at once for Costa in the coming months if he is perceived as the root of the malaise.

Just think back to all the jokes about "CON+5" from 2021 when it seemed no matter what they did, the Tories remained just ahead of Labour.

Then it all fell apart very, very quickly.

Could I be proved right and this breaks the dam for the PSD, like what eventually happened for Labour in Great Britain?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

well, that escalated quickly. Seemed like it'd just be a continued "drip drip drip" of scandals that would wear down the current government but not bring it down. Looks like the leaky pipe burst, if that analogy makes any sense.

[Mike88]

Don't want to Britpost but this has a Britain circa Nov '21 - Apr '22 feel to it. During that time things were a mess but Boris (like Costa) was fairly secure.

It all turned to poo very quickly after that though. Things could go south all at once for Costa in the coming months if he is perceived as the root of the malaise.

Just think back to all the jokes about "CON+5" from 2021 when it seemed no matter what they did, the Tories remained just ahead of Labour.

Then it all fell apart very, very quickly.

Could I be proved right and this breaks the dam for the PSD, like what eventually happened for Labour in Great Britain?

There's no wonder Portugal and the UK have the longest alliance in history, their political dramas even match.

We'll see how this impacts the PSD. The party leadership is in an emergency meeting and the party has been totally silent all afternoon. IL and CHEGA demand fresh elections, PCP says there is a majority and elections are just a possibility. PAN says the same thing as PCP. BE has yet to react to what could lie ahead.

well, that escalated quickly. Seemed like it'd just be a continued "drip drip drip" of scandals that would wear down the current government but not bring it down. Looks like the leaky pipe burst, if that analogy makes any sense.

The lithium and hydrogen deals were always seen as "complicated", to say the least. The lithium deal was a total fiasco, with the company that won the deal being created just 3 days prior to the signing of the deal and their main shareholder had another company with headquarters in a PS led parish building in Montalegre, Vila Real district. The optics were just awful. The hydrogen case is a bit more complex, a 9 billion investement, and here seems to lie the "big picture" of the investigation. Also to point that the lithium case created a controversy on RTP, the public broadcast network, back in 2019, as the journalist who was investigating the deal, Sandra Felgueiras, said she was harassed by PS members for revealing the details of the deal.

[Flyersfan232]

Don't want to Britpost but this has a Britain circa Nov '21 - Apr '22 feel to it. During that time things were a mess but Boris (like Costa) was fairly secure.

It all turned to poo very quickly after that though. Things could go south all at once for Costa in the coming months if he is perceived as the root of the malaise.

Just think back to all the jokes about "CON+5" from 2021 when it seemed no matter what they did, the Tories remained just ahead of Labour.

Then it all fell apart very, very quickly.

Could I be proved right and this breaks the dam for the PSD, like what eventually happened for Labour in Great Britain?

There's no wonder Portugal and the UK have the longest alliance in history, their political dramas even match.

We'll see how this impacts the PSD. The party leadership is in an emergency meeting and the party has been totally silent all afternoon. IL and CHEGA demand fresh elections, PCP says there is a majority and elections are just a possibility. PAN says the same thing as PCP. BE has yet to react to what could lie ahead.

well, that escalated quickly. Seemed like it'd just be a continued "drip drip drip" of scandals that would wear down the current government but not bring it down. Looks like the leaky pipe burst, if that analogy makes any sense.

The lithium and hydrogen deals were always seen as "complicated", to say the least. The lithium deal was a total fiasco, with the company that won the deal being created just 3 days prior to the signing of the deal and their main shareholder had another company with headquarters in a PS led parish building in Montalegre, Vila Real district. The optics were just awful. The hydrogen case is a bit more complex, a 9 billion investement, and here seems to lie the "big picture" of the investigation. Also to point that the lithium case created a controversy on RTP, the public broadcast network, back in 2019, as the journalist who was investigated the deal, Sandra Felgueiras, said she was harassed by PS members for revealing the details of the deal.

who is the most liekly next pm from ps

[Mike88]

who is the most liekly next pm from ps

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Foi bonita a festa, pa
Fiquei contente
Ainda guardo renitente
Mais corrupção para mim...

This announcement hit unexpectedly, even though with the intensification of scandals and investigations since Costa won his third term it was not surprising that this would happen at some point. I agree with Mike on what this means for the judiciary and for Costa personally. In fact, while I trust PS voters to be more reasonable than (totally random example) Forza Italia voters, I'm sure there will be more than enough Portuguese viewing this as proof that the judiciary is unhealthy or too trigger-happy. I wonder if this definitively ends Costa's EU Commission dreams - the election is just half a year away.

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

[Mike88]

Foi bonita a festa, pa
Fiquei contente
Ainda guardo renitente
Mais corrupção para mim...

This announcement hit unexpectedly, even though with the intensification of scandals and investigations since Costa won his third term it was not surprising that this would happen at some point. I agree with Mike on what this means for the judiciary and for Costa personally. In fact, while I trust PS voters to be more reasonable than (totally random example) Forza Italia voters, I'm sure there will be more than enough Portuguese viewing this as proof that the judiciary is unhealthy or too trigger-happy. I wonder if this definitively ends Costa's EU Commission dreams - the election is just half a year away.

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

There is already talk about if the Prosecutor didn't take a "step bigger than its leg" regarding Costa's accusation, and, if in the end, no charges are brought forward by the Supreme Court against Costa, the Public Prosecutor will have to give a "lot" of explanations. But, even if Costa wasn't directly accused by the Prosecutor, his position would become very fragile, as he would lose control of the situation and would be forced, by others, to do things he certainly didn't want. I press again, I don't think Costa personally did anything illegal or unlawful, but he allowed himself to surround himself with people who didn't think the same. We now know that the PS national headquarters and the PM's official office were used as sites for these shady deals, that Galamba, as a government official, had lunches and dinners paid by private companies and that some of the accused, especially Costa's "best-friend", were hired by private companies due to their "influence" on the PM. The image was this: Costa was standing tall and secure at the top of a pillar, but suddenly, the base that supported the pillar collapsed and Costa crashed into the ground. You cannot pick your family, but you can pick your friends and they can be your downfall.

Regarding a future EU post, this case could be a deadly blow to that dream. If the charges against Costa aren't dropped during 2024, he has no chance and even if they are dropped, will the EU want to give Costa a post taking into account the people which he surrounded himself while in government? It's complicated.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is meeting, today, with political parties and will meet with the Council of State tomorrow. By tomorrow's evening, Marcelo is expected to make a speech to the nation.

Parties have now stated their positions, or sort of:

PS - Says it time for the President to decide, but are open to snap elections, to remain in power with a new PM or with a "senatorial" transition PM, ??, until 2026;
PSD - Snap elections;
CHEGA - Snap elections;
IL -Snap elections;
BE - Snap elections;
CDU - Open to elections but says that there are other options;
PAN - It's up for the President to decide;
Livre - Says the decision is in the President's hands, but if elections are to be held, they want it as quickly as possible;

[crals]

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

Mariana Vieira da Silva (minister of the presidency) would be my guess, although she is not entirely uncontroversial either. There's also Ana Catarina Mendes (minister of parliamentary affairs).

Medina would be an absolutely terrible choice imo, as he is also up to his neck in scandals and would send the message that the PS has learned absolutely nothing from this.

[Mike88]

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

Mariana Vieira da Silva (minister of the presidency) would be my guess, although she is not entirely uncontroversial either. There's also Ana Catarina Mendes (minister of parliamentary affairs).

Medina would be an absolutely terrible choice imo, as he is also up to his neck in scandals and would send the message that the PS has learned absolutely nothing from this.

I'm not sure. Both have little or no support within the PS base. My guess is that, of all the cabinet members, the strongest candidate would be the Internal Affairs Minister, José Luís Carneiro. He has been quite low profile, which is a net plus in this government, but I don't think he has that ambition for the moment. I agree regarding Medina, regardless the scandals around him, he has a problem that all polls point: He's unlikeable, and in politics that's fatal.

Let's not forget another snap election in the horizon: Azores is on the brink of a snap election also in January/February 2024, if the regional budget falls in two weeks. However, not sure how much impact will the national scene have in the position of the regional party branches.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Evidently it isn't a proper PS government unless it ends up getting holed beneath the waterline by corruption scandals, ideally very large ones.

[Mike88]

I'm not sure. Both have little or no support within the PS base. My guess is that, of all the cabinet members, the strongest candidate would be the Internal Affairs Minister, José Luís Carneiro. He has been quite low profile, which is a net plus in this government, but I don't think he has that ambition for the moment.(...)

And indeed he's planning to run for the PS leadership: José Luís Carneiro considering a run. PNS is also "plotting" a run.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1722361742683193484

After the "punch in the stomach" in the PS, Pedro Nuno and Carneiro mark ground

Carneiro would represent the more moderate wing of the PS, more aligned with the center-right rather than the leftwing, while Pedro Nuno Santos (PNS) represents the more leftwing part of the PS. Medina and others seem to be out of the picture.

President Marcelo has ended his meetings with parties and only the PS defended that there should not be a snap election and a new PM should be appointed. Opposition parties point to a late February/early March election, in order for the budget be approved until the end of November 2023.

[crals]

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

Mariana Vieira da Silva (minister of the presidency) would be my guess, although she is not entirely uncontroversial either. There's also Ana Catarina Mendes (minister of parliamentary affairs).

Medina would be an absolutely terrible choice imo, as he is also up to his neck in scandals and would send the message that the PS has learned absolutely nothing from this.

I'm not sure. Both have little or no support within the PS base. My guess is that, of all the cabinet members, the strongest candidate would be the Internal Affairs Minister, José Luís Carneiro. He has been quite low profile, which is a net plus in this government, but I don't think he has that ambition for the moment. I agree regarding Medina, regardless the scandals around him, he has a problem that all polls point: He's unlikeable, and in politics that's fatal.

Let's not forget another snap election in the horizon: Azores is on the brink of a snap election also in January/February 2024, if the regional budget falls in two weeks. However, not sure how much impact will the national scene have in the position of the regional party branches.

Well, all the candidates have issues. PNS managed to distance himself from the government to some extent, I think it will be him.

[Mike88]

Well, all the candidates have issues. PNS managed to distance himself from the government to some extent, I think it will be him.

That was always pointed as something positive for him, even though his tenure as minister was quite erratic, to say the least. Being out of cabinet made him free of all the toxic issues around the government. I also think it will be him, if it's a two-man race between him and José Luís Carneiro.