🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2023: 39.90% (-0.89%)
2019: 40.79%
2015: 37.48%
2011: 43.46%
2007: 44.65%

[Mike88]

For anyone interested, the live feeds to follow the Madeira election night coverage;

RTP Madeira: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpmadeira

RTP3: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3

I believe none are geo blocked. The election night coverage starts at 6:30 pm local time, around one hour from now. Polls close half hour later at 7pm.

[Mike88]

CESOP-RTP turnout projection: 52-56%

15 minutes until polls close.

[Mike88]

CESOP-RTP exit poll:

44-48% PSD/CDS, 23-26 seats
18-21% PS, 9-12
  9-12% JPP, 4-6
  8-10% CH, 3-5
    2-4% IL, 1
    2-3% CDU, 1
    2-3% BE, 1
    1-3% PAN, 0-1

[Mike88]

Results so far - 14/54 parishes counted:

56.4% PSD/CDS (+0.1)
19.4% PS (-13.3)
  6.9% JPP (+3.9)
  6.8% CHEGA (+6.5)
  1.8% IL (+1.5)
  1.4% CDU (+0.6)
  1.1% PAN (+0.5)

[Mike88]

The results so far are not very flattering for the PSD. For the PS it's a total disaster, to say the least. I'm quite surprised about the JPP results as of now.

Also, another bad night for polling.

[Mike88]

Despite the not very good result of the PSD coalition, just the discussion of falling below the majority threshold says it all, in terms of parishes counted the PSD/CDS leads in 27 and JPP in 2. PS has currently 0.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Despite the not very good result of the PSD coalition, just the discussion of falling below the majority threshold says it all, in terms of parishes counted the PSD/CDS leads in 27 and JPP in 2. PS has currently 0.

How many did they win last time around?

[Mike88]

Despite the not very good result of the PSD coalition, just the discussion of falling below the majority threshold says it all, in terms of parishes counted the PSD/CDS leads in 27 and JPP in 2. PS has currently 0.

How many did they win last time around?

There are still some parishes to be counted so the final picture is uncertain, but in 2019 PS won 13 parishes, urban mainly, JPP 2 and PSD 39.

[Mike88]

Results so far - 38/54 parishes counted:

44.4% PSD/CDS, 6 seats
19.8% PS, 2
14.4% JPP, 2
  7.9% CHEGA, 1
  2.0% IL
  1.9% CDU
  1.9% PAN
  1.8% BE

There's nothing yet reported from Funchal, which amounts to 40% of the total population of the island.

[Mike88]

Going to dinner now.

[crals]

Miguel Albuquerque probably regretting his pledge to resign if he doesn't get an absolute majority... RTP saying PSD/CDS is likely to get 23 rather than the necessary 24 seats.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

53/54 counted, PSD/CDS looking like they'll fall short to me

PSD/CDS: 43.31%, 17
PS: 21.17%, 8
JPP: 11.34%, 4
CHEGA: 8.79%, 3
CDU: 2.68%, 1
IL: 2.44%, 0
PAN: 2.20%, 0
BE: 2.19%, 0
PTP: 1.02%, 0

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I assume the most likely partner for PSD/CDS would be JPP? IDK the intricacies tbf

[Mike88]

And it's official, PSD/CDS have lost their majority.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Final result:

PSD/CDS: 43.13%, 23
PS: 21.30%, 11
JPP: 11.03%, 5
CHEGA: 8.88%, 4
CDU: 2.72%, 1
IL: 2.63%, 1
PAN: 2.25%, 1
BE: 2.24%, 1
PTP: 1.01%, 0
LIVRE: 0.63%, 0
RIR: 0.54%, 0
MPT: 0.51%, 0
ADN: 0.46%, 0

Blank: 0.62%
Spoiled: 2.06%

[Mike88]

Final results, 54/54 parishes:

43.1% PSD/CDS (-2.1), 23 seats (-1)
21.3% PS (-14.5), 11 (-8)
11.0% JPP (+5.5), 5 (+2)
  8.9% CHEGA (+8.5), 4 (+4)
  2.7% CDU (+0.9), 1 (nc)
  2.6% IL (+1.1), 1 (+1)
  2.2% PAN (+0.7), 1 (+1)
  2.2% BE (+0.5), 1 (nc)
  1.0% PTP (nc), 0 (nc)
  5.0% Others/Invalid (-1.6)

53.3% Turnout (-2.2)

[Mike88]

This election is a massive defeat for the PSD, but curiously, a soft defeat for the PS. The PSD is "humilliated" and is now in a complicated situation. The PS, despite its massive colapse, the PSD/CDS majority loss "camouflaged" their results. Plus, the national PS can now point and laugh at the national PSD.

What the PSD will do is a big doubt. Will Albuquerque resign like he said during the campaign?

The Opposition is also having a bit of a dilusional reaction. JPP leader just said that the Opposition should govern Madeira. Is he really including CHEGA in the mix?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

And obligatory proportional result:


PSD/CDS: 43.13%, 21 (-2)
PS: 21.30%, 10 (-1)
JPP: 11.03%, 6 (+1)
CHEGA: 8.88%, 4 (+/- 0)
CDU: 2.72%, 2 (+1)
IL: 2.63%, 1 (+/- 0)
PAN: 2.25%, 1 (+/- 0)
BE: 2.24%, 1 (+/- 0)
PTP: 1.01%, 1 (+1)
LIVRE: 0.63%, 0
RIR: 0.54%, 0
MPT: 0.51%, 0
ADN: 0.46%, 0

CDU [1.3114 quotas] gets the last seat over LIVRE (0.3060 quotas] by 16 votes. Lots of small parties means the quota gets small.

[Mike88]

Also, polling in Portugal, like I wrote earlier, suffered another big blow. In the 4th election in a row, the polls completely failed to forecast what was actually happening.

[Mike88]

Ventura just said that deals with the PSD are off the table and that Albuquerque should resign.

[Mike88]

The hell is Montenegro saying?? A "night of joy" for the PSD??

I'll have what his having.

His remarks are just... embarassing. Jesus.

[Mike88]

Well, at least something positive came out from Montenegro: "CHEGA never". He also basically opened the door to the Liberals.

Also, he was sweating like the room was at 50 degres celsius. (122ºF)

[Mike88]

IL says they are not available to be part of the Government, but is open to "talk" with the PSD.

[Mike88]

Albuquerque says he's ready to present a "parliamentary majority" solution in the next few days and pressed that he will exclude CHEGA from that solution. But, he added that if he fails in that task, he will resign.

So much for trusting politicians words.

He also refuses to say which party is he talking about. "You will see in the next few days" he said.