🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

IL national leader Rui Rocha just spoke to reporters and basically "hinted" that IL will support the PSD/CDS coalition pressing, again, that CHEGA never.

[crals]

Well, I'm glad Albuquerque walked back from that dumb promise. The result is extremely underwhelming for the PSD (and Montenegro should be VERY worried) but he will still be able to govern.

I assume the most likely partner for PSD/CDS would be JPP? IDK the intricacies tbf

JPP is sort of PS-lite, I'd say. IL seems to be the most likely option. PAN might also be up for it.

[Mike88]

Well, I'm glad Albuquerque walked back from that dumb promise. The result is extremely underwhelming for the PSD (and Montenegro should be VERY worried) but he will still be able to govern.

I assume the most likely partner for PSD/CDS would be JPP? IDK the intricacies tbf

JPP is sort of PS-lite, I'd say. IL seems to be the most likely option. PAN might also be up for it.

I think that Montenegro made a stupid mistake, to say the least, going to Madeira to follow election night. He was clearly hoping for a massive result and it happened the opposite. His remarks clearly show he's not up for the job. I'm sorry, but that's the reality unfortunetly. The good thing from all of this is the PSD is now clearly a "CHEGA never" supporter.

JPP was formed by two brothers, Élvio and Filipe Sousa, who left the PS as they were frustrated by the party. They have a very tense relationship with both PSD and PS, and their ultimate goal is to become the main opposition to the PSD in Madeira. But JPP's result is very surprising taking into account the big feud between the brothers in the last few weeks that created a big rift the party.

Yes, PAN also said they are willing to "support" the PSD/CDS government. But, I think that IL seems the likely choice here. Rui Rocha "hinted" clearly that. But, hey, this election was quite a surprise. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Yes, PAN also said they are willing to "support" the PSD/CDS government. But, I think that IL seems the likely choice here. Rui Rocha "hinted" clearly that. But, hey, this election was quite a surprise. We'll see.

Indeed, Diário de Notícias da Madeira, one the major newspapers in the island, says that the deal is with PAN, not IL. They say that the deal will be revealed tomorrow.

Another surprise.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Well, I'm glad Albuquerque walked back from that dumb promise. The result is extremely underwhelming for the PSD (and Montenegro should be VERY worried) but he will still be able to govern.

I assume the most likely partner for PSD/CDS would be JPP? IDK the intricacies tbf

JPP is sort of PS-lite, I'd say. IL seems to be the most likely option. PAN might also be up for it.

I had assumed IL wasn't getting in at the time I posted that. IL definitely is the more natural partner for PSD/CDS though a 1 seat majority certainly doesn't scream "stability"

[Mike88]

Results graphic:
https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1706053741193871851
Parish map:

Image link

The PSD/CDS coalition (orange) won 52 out of 54 parishes, while JPP (green) won the remaining 2 in Santa Cruz. The PSD coalition was also the most voted in all 11 municipalities.

[Mike88]

Update on the Madeira election fallout:

PSD-Madeira is in talks with both PAN and IL. However, the negotiations with PAN seem, as of now, more solid than the one with IL, but it's still less than 24 hours after the results were announced. While leaving his office, Albuquerque told reporters that everything is "going well".

The total eclipse of CDS during the election is also something to note. The party seems to very, very slowly becoming the "PEV" of PSD. Not sure if the party is viable to run alone in the 2024 EU elections, like they plan to.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I had almost forgotten this election was going on... deeply embarrassing for PSD-CDS to lose their majority in Madeira while the PS is nationally unpopular. Congratulations to JPP I guess. I assume Albuquerque will go on to govern with the support of Iniciativa Liberal.

[Mike88]

I had almost forgotten this election was going on... deeply embarrassing for PSD-CDS to lose their majority in Madeira while the PS is nationally unpopular. Congratulations to JPP I guess. I assume Albuquerque will go on to govern with the support of Iniciativa Liberal.

Actually it will be PAN that will support the PSD coalition. There are also talks with IL, but those could take some time and even not go to great lengths. According to local media, PAN will sign a parliamentary support agreement with PSD and the public announcement will be made tomorrow.

The results are bad for both PSD and PS, although for different reasons. The PSD coalition was banking hard on an increased majority and the final result was a massive flop, in which Montenegro also dragged the national PSD to the picture. For the PS, well, they had long gave up on winning and the goal, at the end, was to not lose by much. It didn't happen of course, and it's not everyday that a major party loses 15% of the votes from one election to another. But, the PS can always take "comfort" that the PSD is not well either.

JPP, like I wrote previously, is for me the biggest surprise of the election. The party has a massive internal dispute going on, between the Sousa brothers, Élvio and Filipe, which created a lot tension and even some members left the party, but they were still able to win 11% of the votes, their best showing ever.

[Mike88]

Environment minister attacked with paint by activists during a conference:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1706621098274459740

A few minutes after the start of a CNN conference, when the Minister of the Environment took the floor, two activists from the Student Climate Strike group went to the stage and threw eggs with green paint, which hit Duarte Cordeiro.

Environment minister Duarte Cordeiro was attacked when an activist group threw eggs with green paint against him during a conference of CNN Portugal. The activists were quickly arrested and identified by the police. The protesters say that the conference was sponsored by Galp, Portugal's main oil company, and EDP, the main energy company, accusing the government of not caring about climate transition, adding that more protests like this will continue. The minister downplayed the incident saying that "at least they got it right with the green color, which is a color I like" adding that these kind of actions don't work nor have the impact intended.

[Mike88]

We have a deal: PSD/CDS and PAN have officially reached an agreement for a parliamentary majority in Madeira.

PAN is set to reveal the details of the agreement in a press conference this afternoon.

Jornal da Madeira has published the priorities of PAN that have been accepted by the PSD/CDS coalition:

- Implementation of the Tourist Tax throughout the Region;
- Health Pass for Porto Santense people;
- Free Vaccinations for Animals;
- Health Center in Caniço;
- Youth Center in Caniço;
- Creation of Autonomization Homes for victims of Domestic Violence;
- Traditional Arts of Madeira in Professional Schools;
- Update of housing rent support;
- Support for sterilization for all animals;
- Single pass for Madeira buses;
- Support for Organic Farmers;

Correction on the Caniço center, just made by the PAN sole MP. Mónica Freitas confirmed that PAN signed a deal with PSD/CDS to approve budgets and to give stability for 4 years. She added that PAN will not have government posts.

[Mike88]

Miguel Albuquerque hails the PSD/CDS - PAN agreement saying it is a "platform of stability":

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1706688128843682302

Miguel Albuquerque: "We have a platform of stability"

Miguel Albuquerque, Madeira President, reacted to the official announcement of a deal betwenn PSD/CDS and PAN by saying that a "platform of stability" was created and that the deal demands, from both sides, constant dialogue, adding that the talks were always made in good faith. Albuquerque also opens the door to ocasional agreements with the Liberals (IL). Asked by reporters why he choose PAN, Albuquerque replied "That's a good question. I chose because I chose."

Opposition parties are already reacting to the deal: PS "repudiates" the deal adding that Albuquerque didn't keep his word and that PAN is betraying the Madeiran people. CHEGA says that the deal is betrayal to rightwing voters, while IL accused the PSD of choosing the "easiest option".

[Mike88]

I had assumed IL wasn't getting in at the time I posted that. IL definitely is the more natural partner for PSD/CDS though a 1 seat majority certainly doesn't scream "stability"

A one seat majority in a 47 seat parliament is a safe majority, and since 2015 the PSD has had a 1 seat majority and ruled without problems, but the question of how stable the PAN-PSD/CDS agreement is, is another discussion. IL opened the door to "talks" with the PSD, but there are deep enmities between IL's main candidate, Nuno Morna, and the PSD. Morna is a CDS dissident, who was fierce anti-PSD activist, thus, any aproximation between both sides is very, very difficult. PAN, because it has a vague political position, is easier to talk to in Madeira than IL.

The PSD/CDS coalition has more seats than all the center-left/leftwing parties combined, so any chance of the regional parliament bringing down the government passes through CHEGA, and Ventura will never aligned with the left in order to bring down a center-right government as this would shatter his image of an "anti-left warrior", and could have ruinous electoral consequences.

However, parties are already making "moves" for the future:

- PSD-Madeira is already seeing that this will be Albuquerque's last term and are now looking at the mayor of Funchal, Pedro Calado, as the next leader. Alberto João Jardim already calls him "the future";

- Montenegro is being "ridiculed" by his posture and words regarding the elections, with many within the party very upset with him;

- In the PS, no one knows what will happen. Despite the bad result, Sérgio Gonçalves didn't resign and the national PS is distancing themselves from their Madeira branch;
 
- CDS is in the uncomfortable position of just being irrelevant and accepting whatever the PSD decides, especially with the PAN deal as CDS is a conservative party with deep roots with farmers;

- And PAN has also internal issues, as the former head candidate who was removed by the national leadership, and lost a Court case regarding this, is now saying that the PAN-PSD deal is "illegal" as he didn't signed it, but the party's sole MP and the national leadership reject these accusations;

[Mike88]

Government proposes privatization of at least 51% of TAP airlines:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1707372609472483550

Government announces privatization of "at least 51%" of TAP

After almost a year in which TAP airlines almost brought down the Government, Costa's cabinet announced that they intend to privatize "at least" 51% of TAP airlines. The announcement was made by Finance minister, Fernando Medina, and Infrastructures minister, João Galamba, which also added that the diploma approved by cabinet frames the sale to a "big scale investor" in the aviation sector, that is yet to be chosen. The Government injected a 3,2 billion euros bailout to TAP airlines but the price is the last topic in the government's list. First, there is the growth of TAP and maintenance of the hub in Portugal, and then more investement and focus on other national airports, especially Porto. Despite wanting to sell at least 51%, this percentage is not final and it could be much higher than 51%.

Opposition parties are critcizing the government's plan: The Liberals (IL) want a full privatization of the airline and a full refund of the 3,2 billion euros injected by the government; CHEGA is worried the possible buyers of TAP airlines; PCP is totally against the privatization saying it's "an economic crime and against the sovereignty of the country"; PAN criticized the lack of transparency from the government; PSD wants a 100% sale of the airline and accuses Costa of wasting everybody's time with his constant "flip-flops" regarding TAP; BE doesn't want TAP to be privatized saying it was saved by taxpayers money.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Air France-KLM, Lufthansa Group and IAG (British Airways/Iberia) would seem to be the only obvious bidders for TAP, now the middle eastern carriers have been burnt by their investments in Europe. Lufthansa seems the most logical, given existing cooperation and alliance ties, plus it fills a void for the group.

[Mike88]

Air France-KLM, Lufthansa Group and IAG (British Airways/Iberia) would seem to be the only obvious bidders for TAP, now the middle eastern carriers have been burnt by their investments in Europe. Lufthansa seems the most logical, given existing cooperation and alliance ties, plus it fills a void for the group.

Yep, Lufthansa seems the most obvious pick and it is known to be the preferred by the Government. IAG has the problem of many fearing that Lisbon would become a "3rd rate hub" because of Madrid and Air France-KLM is seen as a viable candidate but not that strong.

The TAP privatization process has been dragging since the 90's and every single government since then has had problems with the airline. In 2015, the PSD/CDS government was able to privatize it, 61% if I'm correct, but it was a totally botched up sale that became even worse when Costa's 1st government bought 50% of the company, with the State being responsible to cover all losses while the company continued to be 100% privately ran. The government announcement wasn't that much of a big deal, to be honest, the % to be sold is still unknown and everybody knows that the sale will not cover the taxpayers bailout that the airline received.

TAP has been a sort of "grim reaper" of Costa's governments and the faster he can get rid of TAP airlines and sale it, the better, but if it is sold at a low price, which is a possibility, he could suffer further political consequences because of the TAP dossier. We'll see.

[Mike88]

New smoking law approved by Parliament with divisions within the PS:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1707740145565442382

Law to restrict tobacco approved with 14 PS abstentions

Parliament approved this afternoon the new smoking law that has created a lot of controversy, with parties accusing the government of being "prohibitionist" and even within the PS, several MPs decided to abstain or vote against. Overall, only the majority of PS MPs voted in favour, with CHEGA, IL, BE and 2 PS MPs voting against and PSD, PCP, PAN, Livre and 14 PS MPs abstaining. Parties accuse the new law of being "exaggerated" and "disproportionate". The new law forbids the sale of tobacco in some stores, although the government dropped several points of the original draft, and it will be forbidden to smoke in front of schools, hospitals and universities. Electronic tobacco will also be equivalent to conventional tobacco. The results of the vote were the following:

94 In favour (94 PS)
26 Against (12 CHEGA, 8 IL, 4 BE, 2 PS)
86 Abstention (65 PSD, 14 PS, 5 PCP, 1 PAN, 1 Livre)
24 Absent (12 PSD, 10 PS, 1 PCP, 1 BE)

[Mike88]

With the Madeira election now over and Albuquerque officially invited to form a government, with the "controversial" support of PAN, it's time to remove it from the title.

The next scheduled election is the European election on 9 June, but, there is the possibility of an early election in the Azores in January/February 2024. This election is scheduled for October 2024, but the current PSD/CDS/PPM government lost its majority last March when IL "jumped ship" and the 2024 budget approval is in doubt. Curiously, PAN could also be the "savior" of the PSD in the Azores. We'll see.

Beyond electoral news, other stories are making headlines:

- The corruption scandal that is hitting the Defense ministry, and led to the resignation of the then Secretary of State for Defense, Marco Capitão Ferreira, last July, had a new chapter this week as Expresso newspaper reports that one of the accused in the scandal, Paulo Branco, told the police that incumbent Foreign Affairs minister and former Defense minister, João Gomes Cravinho, made up a fake contract in order to "settle accounts" with Marco Capitão Ferreira. Incumbent Defense minister, Helena Carreiras, is also accused with Paulo Branco saying to the police that he paid for Carreiras' scientific research in exchange for her "scientific stamp" in the data from the Defense ministry. Both Cravinho and Carreiras dismiss the accusations and say they are lies;

- The NHS crisis continues with strikes and protests and, this time, doctors are refusing to work extra hours during October and this means that emergency rooms in hospitals across the country could close down. Doctors unions have refused the government's proposals and now there is big worries in the NHS administration regarding possible emergency rooms closures. As of now, around 1,500 doctors from 20 hospitals across the country have refused to work extra hours;

[Mike88]

Today, protests were held in several cities against the high price of housing and the government's recent housing policies, with the main rally in Lisbon city. Turnout seems to not have been that big, especially compared with the protest of last April. At least one store, a real estate bussiness, was vandalized by protestors, but the protest was marked by the presence of a few CHEGA MPs who were insulted by protestors and had to be escorted by the police:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1708133995366449215

Chega MPs leave protest for the right to housing escorted by the PSP

[Mike88]

António Costa's "CNN Town Hall" interview: "Unbeatable in numbers" but then reality tarnishes those numbers.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1708966873352503798

The Prime Minister admits that there may be some additional changes to taxes resulting from negotiations with social partners.

In the "CNN Town Hall" interview last night, PM Costa presented a lot of numbers to show how the country has changed for the better, according to him. He pressed on the economic growth, the growing tax revenue, the contributions to Social Security and the increase in spending on the NHS and Education. Pundits argue that Costa was "unbeatable in numbers", but reality then steps in. Costa announced that the country will have a budget surplus this year and didn't commit to big income tax reductions, saying that the case is being negotiated. Regarding rents, he said that any kind of rent limit will not follow the 2% limit imposed this year, but didn't say much about it. Regarding housing, Costa says he's "frustrated" for not doing much in the last 8 years, adding that he has "sympathy" for protestors that want more affordable housing. Regarding the ongoing NHS crisis, Costa says that the government policies, that unions rejected, will be good for the Health service, but when pressed about the strikes, Costa added that his government is "not for doctors, but for the population as a whole". The only "announcement" that Costa made during the whole interview was that the benefits for non-habitual residents will end in 2024.

[Mike88]

António Costa's "CNN Town Hall" interview: "Unbeatable in numbers" but then reality tarnishes those numbers.
(...)
The only "announcement" that Costa made during the whole interview was that the benefits for non-habitual residents will end in 2024.

The funny thing is: PS voted against ending tax benefits for non-habitual residents... two weeks ago.

The bill was proposed by PCP and BE and it demanded the end of the current tax benefits to non-habitual residents in 2024, who are foreign people, especially retirees, that buy homes and start living in Portugal. PS, PSD, CHEGA and IL voted against while PCP, BE, PAN and Livre voted in favour:

https://twitter.com/ArVotacoes/status/1705152458366833094

Bill (BE) Amends the Personal Income Tax Code for non-habitual residents

Just another day in Costa's government...

[Mike88]

Madeira election aftermath: Former PS leader Paulo Cafôfo announces he wants to return to the leadership.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1708987364402671966

Paulo Cafôfo candidate for PS/Madeira leader: “The cause of my life”

The big drop in support for the PS in the Madeira elections last 24 September had impacts in the party. Current leader, Sérgio Gonçalves, announced he would not resign but will not run for another term in the next leadership ballot, in February 2024. Then, the "surprise" was the announcement of former PS leader and current Secretary of State for Portuguese Communities Overseas, Paulo Cafôfo, as a candidate for the leadership. Cafôfo was leader between 2018 and 2021 and gave the PS its best showing ever in a Madeira election, 36% in 2019. But, after that election, his popularity dropped and he resigned after a poor result of the party in the 2021 local elections. The local party reacted with unease to the announcement, as the party has deep internal divisions with some accusing Cafôfo of never actually "leaving" the leadership and acting behind the scenes. Other candidates may step forward also.

[Mike88]

A few updates:

- Yesterday was the 5 October holiday that marks the Republican Revolution of 1910 (although, curiously, 5 October is also the "official birthday" of Portugal as on this day, in 1143, King Afonso Henriques signed the Treaty of Zamora that officially recognized Portugal as an Independent nation with its own King). The speeches in Lisbon city hall were quite dull and the only thing that marked the day was Carlos Moedas, Lisbon mayor, "shameless campaign" for the PSD leadership, at the same time he brought up the tiring debate of the "25 April vs 25 November" dates;

- The NHS crisis in now making daily headlines. Hospitals emergency rooms are shutting down services, or working at half, across the country due to the lack of doctors, who refuse to do extra hours, and the situation is expected to continue, and could become worse. Doctors are pressing the Government to reach a deal and the Health minister is giving "signs" that he's ready to concede some measures to doctors. Despite this, the PS is starting to "freak out", a bit, because of the NHS crisis and are demanding more money for higher wages for doctors, thus pressing Finance minister Fernando Medina to "open the wallet";

[Mike88]

A few days before the 2024 budget presentation, the Government signs new income deal but without the support of business leaders and the main CGTP union:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1710618490728591587

Minimum wage of 820 euros, wage update of 5% and changes to the IRS. New income agreement advances without CIP and CGTP

Just like last year, and also at the last minute, the government failed to reach a deal with business leaders (CIP) on wage policy increases and, as usual, CGTP union, close to the Communists, also rejected the government's deal. The 2024 income deal increases the minimum wage to 820 euros (~870$), inscribes a reference of 5% wage increase for private sector workers and announces changes to income taxes, although no details are available in the income agreement.

Bussiness leaders criticize the income agreement, labeling it as "short" taking into account the country's needs. They are also upset with the government's rejection of several of their proposals, especially a 15th month wage free from taxes.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %: (compared with the raw numbers from the July poll)

27.6% PS (+0.6)
24.1% PSD (-1.8 )
12.8% CHEGA (+0.7)
  6.7% BE (-0.8 )
  5.0% IL (+0.2)
  4.0% CDU (+1.0)
  3.4% PAN (-0.2)
  2.6% Livre (+0.1)
  2.4% CDS (+1.3)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (-0.6)
  5.9% Undecided (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 October 2023. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.