AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Palin has Nikki Haley’s endorsement. Not a surprise, since Palin’s endorsement of Haley in 2010 helped her win the Gubernatorial primary:

https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/1510618440654069767?s=21&t=pUipnfYWxUS...

I do wonder if this means there’ll be no resistance to her candidacy from the GOP establishment.

It really shows how much even the GOP establishment has moved to the right since McCain in 2008 and the Trump presidency. In 2010, Palin would have Boehner and maybe McConnell wanting someone to try to stop her from the center.

I don't understand this idea that Sarah Palin is some far-right crazy person. She was McCain's VP for crying out loud, picked out by the Lincoln Project guys. She seems like a generic tea party era conservative who doesn't hold any uniquely controversial views within the party, other than being vaguely anti-establishment. Seems more like the typical liberals are branding her that way because they hate her and think she's gaffe prone (which, she may be). But ideology isn't style.

[Rat]

Ugh, that's the one that was still missing in the next congress. MTG, Boebert, Gaetz, Cathron, Gosar and now Palin. This is going to be a heck of a GOP caucus.

Just need Michelle Bachmann and Allen West back in Congress and we'll have the whole all-star team of crazies.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Looks like Palin has Nikki Haley’s endorsement. Not a surprise, since Palin’s endorsement of Haley in 2010 helped her win the Gubernatorial primary:

https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/1510618440654069767?s=21&t=pUipnfYWxUS...

I do wonder if this means there’ll be no resistance to her candidacy from the GOP establishment.

It really shows how much even the GOP establishment has moved to the right since McCain in 2008 and the Trump presidency. In 2010, Palin would have Boehner and maybe McConnell wanting someone to try to stop her from the center.

I don't understand this idea that Sarah Palin is some far-right crazy person. She was McCain's VP for crying out loud, picked out by the Lincoln Project guys. She seems like a generic tea party era conservative who doesn't hold any uniquely controversial views within the party, other than being vaguely anti-establishment. Seems more like the typical liberals are branding her that way because they hate her and think she's gaffe prone (which, she may be). But ideology isn't style.

She's not that far-right, but she's pretty dumb and liberals really hate her. I honestly think she will end up being pretty right-wing in Congress, but mostly because she isn't too intelligent and would probably end up adopting more Trumpist views to fit in with the new "anti-establishment" of the party.

[JMT]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

But the top four system would complicate things. That would allow consolidation of the anti-Palin vote.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

But the top four system would complicate things. That would allow consolidation of the anti-Palin vote.

Not if Republicans prefer Palin over Gross (who is the likely main opponent to Palin). Palin probably gets over 40% of the first-round vote, and using the same logic you used with the TX-03 primary, she doesn't need too much more to win the whole thing.
There are way more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, and many people not voting for Palin just prefer someone like Begich, but they would vote Palin over a liberal. This is an open race, the people not voting for Palin aren't necessarily "anti-Palin".
There are more people in Alaska who would vote for Palin over a democrat, than there are people so anti-Palin they would vote for Al Gross.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

But the top four system would complicate things. That would allow consolidation of the anti-Palin vote.

Not if Republicans prefer Palin over Gross (who is the likely main opponent to Palin). Palin probably gets over 40% of the first-round vote, and using the same logic you used with the TX-03 primary, she doesn't need too much more to win the whole thing.
There are way more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, and many people not voting for Palin just prefer someone like Begich, but they would vote Palin over a liberal. This is an open race, the people not voting for Palin aren't necessarily "anti-Palin".

What I meant was the possibility of a non-Palin Republican with a Murkowski-style coalition winning.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

But the top four system would complicate things. That would allow consolidation of the anti-Palin vote.

Not if Republicans prefer Palin over Gross (who is the likely main opponent to Palin). Palin probably gets over 40% of the first-round vote, and using the same logic you used with the TX-03 primary, she doesn't need too much more to win the whole thing.
There are way more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, and many people not voting for Palin just prefer someone like Begich, but they would vote Palin over a liberal. This is an open race, the people not voting for Palin aren't necessarily "anti-Palin".

What I meant was the possibility of a non-Palin Republican with a Murkowski-style coalition winning.

Doubtful. Palin will get the vast majority of Republicans and most democrats will go to Gross. The only other major Republican in the race is Begich, and he's not even moderate. He was already running before to primary Don Young from the right after all.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

But the top four system would complicate things. That would allow consolidation of the anti-Palin vote.

Not if Republicans prefer Palin over Gross (who is the likely main opponent to Palin). Palin probably gets over 40% of the first-round vote, and using the same logic you used with the TX-03 primary, she doesn't need too much more to win the whole thing.
There are way more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, and many people not voting for Palin just prefer someone like Begich, but they would vote Palin over a liberal. This is an open race, the people not voting for Palin aren't necessarily "anti-Palin".

What I meant was the possibility of a non-Palin Republican with a Murkowski-style coalition winning.

Doubtful. Palin will get the vast majority of Republicans and most democrats will go to Gross. The only other major Republican in the race is Begich, and he's not even moderate. He was already running before to primary Don Young from the right after all.

What do you expect the breakdown to be between Palin, other Republicans, and Democrats in the first round?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Here’s the official Trump endorsement of Palin:

https://twitter.com/sarahpalinusa/status/1510789098059059200?s=21&t=Pdw_q5ij...

Does this help or hurt her?

Helps her consolidate the Republican vote.

How does that affect her chances of actually winning the race?

Helps her since Alaska is probably an R+20 state in this environment.

But the top four system would complicate things. That would allow consolidation of the anti-Palin vote.

Not if Republicans prefer Palin over Gross (who is the likely main opponent to Palin). Palin probably gets over 40% of the first-round vote, and using the same logic you used with the TX-03 primary, she doesn't need too much more to win the whole thing.
There are way more Republicans than Democrats in Alaska, and many people not voting for Palin just prefer someone like Begich, but they would vote Palin over a liberal. This is an open race, the people not voting for Palin aren't necessarily "anti-Palin".

What I meant was the possibility of a non-Palin Republican with a Murkowski-style coalition winning.

Doubtful. Palin will get the vast majority of Republicans and most democrats will go to Gross. The only other major Republican in the race is Begich, and he's not even moderate. He was already running before to primary Don Young from the right after all.

What do you expect the breakdown to be between Palin, other Republicans, and Democrats in the first round?

40% Palin
32% Gross
17% Moderate Republicans
10% Begich/other Trumpy Republicans
4% Other dems

[Sub Jero]

MTG endorsed Palin
https://mobile.twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1510063359177146371

[LDP Everywhere]

State GOP endorses Begichhttps://mobile.twitter.com/NBegich/status/1517540592774836224?cxt=HHwWgMCjyZ_IsY...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seeing a Begich run for Congress as a Republican makes my brain hurt, lol.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

State GOP endorses Begichhttps://mobile.twitter.com/NBegich/status/1517540592774836224?cxt=HHwWgMCjyZ_IsY...

The Alaska establishment seems to be coalescing around Begich (funny since originally Begich was primarying Young). We'll see if it's enough to stop Palin, as most polls have shown Palin ahead of other GOP challengers (and even one showing Palin with over 50% of the Republican vote, essentially guaranteeing her in the top 2 with Gross).
Unlike with the Senate race, a democrat or Gross is likely to make it to the final round of RCV, so the winner is likely whichever Republican can get more than 50% of the Republican vote.
Trump is expected to campaign in Alaska so that might boost Palin.

[LDP Everywhere]

State GOP endorses Begichhttps://mobile.twitter.com/NBegich/status/1517540592774836224?cxt=HHwWgMCjyZ_IsY...

The Alaska establishment seems to be coalescing around Begich (funny since originally Begich was primarying Young). We'll see if it's enough to stop Palin, as most polls have shown Palin ahead of other GOP challengers (and even one showing Palin with over 50% of the Republican vote, essentially guaranteeing her in the top 2 with Gross).
Unlike with the Senate race, a democrat or Gross is likely to make it to the final round of RCV, so the winner is likely whichever Republican can get more than 50% of the Republican vote.
Trump is expected to campaign in Alaska so that might boost Palin.

You don’t think Pat Chesbro will make the runoff for the Senate?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

State GOP endorses Begichhttps://mobile.twitter.com/NBegich/status/1517540592774836224?cxt=HHwWgMCjyZ_IsY...

The Alaska establishment seems to be coalescing around Begich (funny since originally Begich was primarying Young). We'll see if it's enough to stop Palin, as most polls have shown Palin ahead of other GOP challengers (and even one showing Palin with over 50% of the Republican vote, essentially guaranteeing her in the top 2 with Gross).
Unlike with the Senate race, a democrat or Gross is likely to make it to the final round of RCV, so the winner is likely whichever Republican can get more than 50% of the Republican vote.
Trump is expected to campaign in Alaska so that might boost Palin.

You don’t think Pat Chesbro will make the runoff for the Senate?

I think Gray-Jackson could have made the final 2, but I don't think Chesbro will, she's a nobody.
In fact I think the Democratic party put her in on purpose to boost Murkowski. If Murkowski gets into the final 2 with Tshibaka, she relies almost entirely on Democrats to win. Chesbro will boost democratic turnout, and those democrats will likely place Murkowski 2nd.

[They not like us]

Important to remember that Nick Begich was a regular InfoWars guest and his conspiracism gave rise to a lot of brain numbing idiocy on the right

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully Begich saves us from Palin but they give us AK AL Numbers but no Gov or Sen polls that is Strange

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1535729622838562817?s=21&t=b9M4dntbV-LwWbgFEOs...

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Sarah Palin, Nick Begich, and Al Gross have all advanced to the general.

The fourth slot will possibly go to Mary Peltola (D) but outside chance it goes to Tara Sweeney (R) or Santa Claus.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Just realized that someone with enough votes to get the fourth runoff spot would have come in third in a local county supervisor race near me a week ago.