AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[GALeftist]

Why don't they release the data on the 2nd choice rankings among the votes that have already been tabulated?

That would be messy since no one has been eliminated yet.

It's impossible for the eliminations to be anything other than write-ins > Begich > ? though, right?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

This is like the mirror version of "Democrats should lose every election until they hold no seats, thus winning back every seat in the most dominant party performance in midterm history"

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

This is like the mirror version of "Democrats should lose every election until they hold no seats, thus winning back every seat in the most dominant party performance in midterm history"

Accelerationism is a hell of a drug

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why don't they release the data on the 2nd choice rankings among the votes that have already been tabulated?

That would be messy since no one has been eliminated yet.

Just release the 2nd choice matrix for each candidate.

[wesmoorenerd]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

cope

[coloradocowboi]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

cope

I honestly think that once Americans stopped freaking out from the propaganda and understood through direct experience that for 99.9% of the population "socialistic, leftist, liberal policies" put $ in their pockets (or, as I like to call them, the same policies all other developed countries have), they will be more likely to vote Democrat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Alaska Survey Research guy:

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562591099524239365

[Хahar 🤔]

If candidates are routinely doing this in AK (finishing Top 4 but dropping out before the general election), that seems like it could be a pretty big problem for the integrity of the Top 4 RCV vote reform. 

What would have happened if Al Gross hadn't dropped out of the special?  It might have resulted in Begich being elected; instead, he won't even make the top 2.  Lot of opportunities for strategic manipulation (e.g. a niche candidate could run just to keep a more moderate candidate out of the Top 4).

Why did Sweeney even run for the full term primary when she only got 5% in the special election primary?

Essentially what you're seeing here is that because strategic voting is so important in an instant-runoff system, candidates are essentially making the decision on behalf of voters by withdrawing. I can't say I saw this specific tactic coming, but it's an obvious consequence of choosing the entirely arbitrary number of four candidates. My guess is that the equilibrium number of general election candidates is probably three (presumably two Republicans and one Democrat, with the fourth dropping out), since in that scenario either Republican could imagine themselves winning should they get to the last round.

In any case, this is an obviously poorly designed system, but I'm skeptical that it'll be changed.

[Oryxslayer]

If candidates are routinely doing this in AK (finishing Top 4 but dropping out before the general election), that seems like it could be a pretty big problem for the integrity of the Top 4 RCV vote reform.  

What would have happened if Al Gross hadn't dropped out of the special?  It might have resulted in Begich being elected; instead, he won't even make the top 2.  Lot of opportunities for strategic manipulation (e.g. a niche candidate could run just to keep a more moderate candidate out of the Top 4).

Why did Sweeney even run for the full term primary when she only got 5% in the special election primary?

Essentially what you're seeing here is that because strategic voting is so important in an instant-runoff system, candidates are essentially making the decision on behalf of voters by withdrawing. I can't say I saw this specific tactic coming, but it's an obvious consequence of choosing the entirely arbitrary number of four candidates. My guess is that the equilibrium number of general election candidates is probably three (presumably two Republicans and one Democrat, with the fourth dropping out), since in that scenario either Republican could imagine themselves winning should they get to the last round.

In any case, this is an obviously poorly designed system, but I'm skeptical that it'll be changed.

I mean this depends entirely upon the situation of the particular contest in question. The House regular and special elections have three clear political pillars, so a fourth is electorally unnecessary. Meanwhile, for example, the gubernatorial contest has one dominant Republican, one protest vote Republican, one Democrat, and one Independent with Dem support. All clearly have a purpose to remain in the race. And then the dynamics are entirely different in legislative races with differing seat-by-seat partisan ratings and comparatively weak internal party organizations.

The only way I think one could hands down say the system is a failure is if Alaska Native candidates start losing their access seats to Whites. Like a White Dem, Native Dem, and White R go in, and the White Dem wins cause of GOP transfers, while under the previous system the Native would win the primary and then easily win the general. But there isn't any evidence of that so far.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not sure how Gross dropping out hurt Begich? With him Peltola would've likely came in last, not first, but her votes would've mostly gone to him. Can't see many Peltola-Begich voters. And that would've likely left Begich in third place and then eliminated.

Even if we assume a typical race just consists of generic R and generic D type candidates I don't think field size matters much, if you have two of each then the lower placing Republican and lower placing Democrat are eliminated and their votes just go to the other candidate of their party. If you have two generic Rs vs a generic D then the generic D almost always will have first place but then likely falls behind after one generic R is eliminated and the other gets the vast majority of their votes. This rave just shows Palin's overall weakness as a candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036?s=20&t=NMYQmYuZ6xv...

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036

Idk the source of these numbers but if they're true, then Peltola may honestly be a slight favorite:

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1562854887871770625

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036

Idk the source of these numbers but if they're true, then Peltola may honestly be a slight favorite:

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1562854887871770625

Ivan Moore's Twitter bio includes "Pollster, Alaska Survey Research. Recovering political consultant."  I expect those are numbers from his own polls.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Update! Peltola inches closer to 40%...

Peltola (D): 70,730  39.25%
Palin (R): 56,246  31.21%
Begich (D): 50,458  28.00%  ELIMINATED

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563012092260921344

Wasserman phrased it weird, but Palin needs to be ranked 2nd in 32,500 of the 50,000 Begich ballots. Pelota could pull this off.

[BigSerg]

RCV voting is the biggest scam in history of elections. Of course, se when Trump wins the presidency his first action should be to dissolve the Alaska Republican party and criminally prosecute all the RINOS who actively or passively participated in that scam.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563012092260921344

Wasserman phrased it weird, but Palin needs to be ranked 2nd in 32,500 of the 50,000 Begich ballots. Pelota could pull this off.

That's assuming all of Begich's votes transfer. Assuming nothing else is left, ultimately, Palin needs somewhere between 65-70% of Begich's transferable second preferences to win (with 50k - which won't happen - she needs 65%; with 40k, she needs 68%; with 35k, she needs 71%; etc).

Realistically, Peltola could still win with one-third (or slightly less) of Begich's transferables.

[wesmoorenerd]

RCV voting is the biggest scam in history of elections. Of course, se when Trump wins the presidency his first action should be to dissolve the Alaska Republican party and criminally prosecute all the RINOS who actively or passively participated in that scam.

cope

[NOVA Green]

RCV voting is the biggest scam in history of elections. Of course, se when Trump wins the presidency his first action should be to dissolve the Alaska Republican party and criminally prosecute all the RINOS who actively or passively participated in that scam.

Apparently you are conveniently neglecting the fact that despite RCV, Alaska is pretty much an automatic VBM State, as well as a bit hefty on the AVR.

Really easy to bag on RCV (Granted not as big a fan of it as I was in the late '80s / early '90s), but still it does allow voters to back various Minor Party Candidates such as GRN and LBT, WP, and CON to be able to vote for their 1st choice candidate, but ultimately perform more like a certain style of "European Style" of runoff elections, where minority party candidates can be part of coalition state GVTs.

This is something which has been floated around for something like (40) yrs back, which I discovered when I was a Tweener, from European Election Models running around the same time of "proportional representation models".

I digress, but humbly "BigSerg" would strongly suggest perhaps a "Back To School" moment might be a positive development in the future of your work, academic, and business professional career.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036?s=20&t=NMYQmYuZ6xv...

Why are there so many sinks at my front door

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036?s=20&t=NMYQmYuZ6xv...

Why are there so many sinks at my front door

Hey, if you're anti-pencil, does that make you erasist?

--

Seriously still having a tough time wrapping my head around how this whole RCV works.  But my understanding is that the Dems are banking on Begich voters leaving their tickets blank the rest of the way down?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036?s=20&t=NMYQmYuZ6xv...

Why are there so many sinks at my front door

Hey, if you're anti-pencil, does that make you erasist?

--

Seriously still having a tough time wrapping my head around how this whole RCV works.  But my understanding is that the Dems are banking on Begich voters leaving their tickets blank the rest of the way down?

That or full-on putting Peltola second, although the first might be more likely.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563012092260921344

Wasserman phrased it weird, but Palin needs to be ranked 2nd in 32,500 of the 50,000 Begich ballots. Pelota could pull this off.

That's assuming all of Begich's votes transfer. Assuming nothing else is left, ultimately, Palin needs somewhere between 65-70% of Begich's transferable second preferences to win (with 50k - which won't happen - she needs 65%; with 40k, she needs 68%; with 35k, she needs 71%; etc).

Realistically, Peltola could still win with one-third (or slightly less) of Begich's transferables.

Not sure if you meant this in terms of nothing else being left, but there still roughly 8-10k left to count.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Why don't they release the data on the 2nd choice rankings among the votes that have already been tabulated?

That would be messy since no one has been eliminated yet.

Australia manages it fine. They make a best guess at who will be the final two candidates and count preferences based on that, then if it turns out to be a different final two they just recalculate the two-candidate preferred vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1563147637163171840