AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1562243361502687232?s=21&t=NhuFFdK8ImqfiEDHZIH...

[ShamDam]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1562305696200380418?s=21&t=wFx6NbUabgz...

Could something very, very beautiful be about to happen?

(Obviously the vast majority of Begich supporters will have Palin as their second choice, but I wonder how many ballots will be exhausted with no second choice listed…

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes Rep Mary Peltola

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1562243361502687232?s=21&t=NhuFFdK8ImqfiEDHZIH...

If candidates are routinely doing this in AK (finishing Top 4 but dropping out before the general election), that seems like it could be a pretty big problem for the integrity of the Top 4 RCV vote reform.  

What would have happened if Al Gross hadn't dropped out of the special?  It might have resulted in Begich being elected; instead, he won't even make the top 2.  Lot of opportunities for strategic manipulation (e.g. a niche candidate could run just to keep a more moderate candidate out of the Top 4).

Why did Sweeney even run for the full term primary when she only got 5% in the special election primary?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1562243361502687232?s=21&t=NhuFFdK8ImqfiEDHZIH...

Please don't get my hopes up. Is there really a chance Palin gets rejected?

[Pres Mike]

I’m confused

If someone got 50.01% there’s no general election in November?

I assume the most likely result is Begich winning once Democrats put 2nd place?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m confused

If someone got 50.01% there’s no general election in November?

I assume the most likely result is Begich winning once Democrats put 2nd place?

This special election is only to fill the remainder of Don Young's term.  It is completely independent of the November general election.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’m confused

If someone got 50.01% there’s no general election in November?

I assume the most likely result is Begich winning once Democrats put 2nd place?

If Begich comes in third place, he’ll be eliminated and his votes will be redistributed to his second preferences - mostly Palin, of course, but we’re not sure how much. It’s unlikely, but if enough of his voters didn’t rank Palin second (either because they preferred Peltola or because they didn’t want to rank a second choice) then Peltola could win.

[Pres Mike]

When will we know the Alaska special election results?

[wbrocks67]

When will we know the Alaska special election results?

8/31 is when they tally everything up

[Pres Mike]

When will we know the Alaska special election results?

8/31 is when they tally everything up

Only Begich votes right?

[Pres Mike]

What are the odds Pelota wins? According to my math, she’d need 40% of Begich’s votes. Probably won’t happen.

Republicans usually get 54-55% in Alaskan elections. Between Palin and Begich they have 60% right now. That leads me to believe Pelota will steal another 5%. Maybe 10% since it’s Palin. But that’s stretching it. Probably still not enough

[Spectator]

What are the odds Pelota wins? According to my math, she’d need 40% of Begich’s votes. Probably won’t happen.

Republicans usually get 54-55% in Alaskan elections. Between Palin and Begich they have 60% right now. That leads me to believe Pelota will steal another 5%. Maybe 10% since it’s Palin. But that’s stretching it. Probably still not enough

The bet is that a lot of Begich voters didn’t rank a second at all.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds Pelota wins? According to my math, she’d need 40% of Begich’s votes. Probably won’t happen.

Republicans usually get 54-55% in Alaskan elections. Between Palin and Begich they have 60% right now. That leads me to believe Pelota will steal another 5%. Maybe 10% since it’s Palin. But that’s stretching it. Probably still not enough

Don't assume every vote transfers. We really don't know what is going to happen, cause this is the first time with RCV in Alaska. Not hard to imagine a sizable blank vote caused by some combination of "they both are bad for different reasons" and "I only voted for one candidate in the past."

[2016]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

[Xing]

Anyone know when more votes are going to be counted?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Next update on Friday:

https://twitter.com/ak_elections/status/1562266000837394433

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

You think we're gonna lose WI, PA, NV andI they voted for socialist Obama twice we don't need FL, TX, OH anyways all we need is the big three

They have voted for socialist Gore and Kerry to we're not gonna get wiped out all we need is 270 not 413 Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro and Barnes and Fetterman are favored

Your DeSantis is losing 45/42 because he can win FL but will have a tough time in the Big three

[wbrocks67]

It appears there is likely at least 8-12K additional votes to count too.

[Lief 🗽]

Obviously we’ll see what happens on the 31st but it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of low information Democrats ranked Begich first assuming he was a Democrat, and then put the Democrat they’d never heard of as their second choice.

[Holmes]

Obviously we’ll see what happens on the 31st but it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of low information Democrats ranked Begich first assuming he was a Democrat, and then put the Democrat they’d never heard of as their second choice.

The candidates' party is listed on the ballot in Alaska, but honestly thay wouldn't be such a problem anyway because those votes will end up going to Peltola regardless.

[Smash255]

What are the odds Pelota wins? According to my math, she’d need 40% of Begich’s votes. Probably won’t happen.

Republicans usually get 54-55% in Alaskan elections. Between Palin and Begich they have 60% right now. That leads me to believe Pelota will steal another 5%. Maybe 10% since it’s Palin. But that’s stretching it. Probably still not enough

Based on the updated #'s released yesterday (which are not final), Peltola would need about 36.6% of the 2nd choice vote for Begich.  Very important caveat is that is assuming all of Begich voters listed a 2nd choice.  (I'm assuming very few of the write-in's have a 2nd choice)  The lower the amount of Begich voters that list a 2nd choice, the lower % of the ones that do Peltola.    If 20% of Begich voters didn't list a 2nd choice then the amount of 2nd choice voters, Peltola would need about 1/3 of Begich voters.

 It is a complete wildcard about the % of Begich voters list a 2nd choice, but assuming the vast majority do, and the #'s don't change much from here, Peltola would likely need somewhere in the mid 30's % range to pull this off.. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why don't they release the data on the 2nd choice rankings among the votes that have already been tabulated?

[Oakvale]

If Democrats win this Race they will hold the House as well and the Senate.

And all Republican Senators & Governors in competitive Races will lose as well.

The more I think about it I actually want Democrats to hold Congress. While as a Republican this would be a HUGE short term loss it would mean a massive wipeout for Democrats come 2024.

The Administration would implement more Socialistic, leftist, liberal Policies but whomever the D-Nominee is would get drenched in November 2024.

You may think I would be mad if my party got owned... I can assure you I would not. In fact, I would be laughing.

[Holmes]

Why don't they release the data on the 2nd choice rankings among the votes that have already been tabulated?

That would be messy since no one has been eliminated yet.