AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[Oryxslayer]

Why don't they release the data on the 2nd choice rankings among the votes that have already been tabulated?

That would be messy since no one has been eliminated yet.

Australia manages it fine. They make a best guess at who will be the final two candidates and count preferences based on that, then if it turns out to be a different final two they just recalculate the two-candidate preferred vote.

TBH it is a little confusing to the uninformed average viewer to understand (not us) when a seat that was 60-40 Lib over Lab for example suddenly becomes 51-49 Green over Lib cause one party passed the other on an earlier reallocation round, and voters in said seat have different preferences when it comes to the new top two. It also still took a week for them to count the Representatives and several for the Senate, but I'm not considering that a flaw since Australian states are comparable in size and distribution of settlement to Alaska, and those extreme rural areas disconnected from everyone else are just hard to reach in both circumstances.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563012092260921344

Wasserman phrased it weird, but Palin needs to be ranked 2nd in 32,500 of the 50,000 Begich ballots. Pelota could pull this off.

That's assuming all of Begich's votes transfer. Assuming nothing else is left, ultimately, Palin needs somewhere between 65-70% of Begich's transferable second preferences to win (with 50k - which won't happen - she needs 65%; with 40k, she needs 68%; with 35k, she needs 71%; etc).

Realistically, Peltola could still win with one-third (or slightly less) of Begich's transferables.

Not sure if you meant this in terms of nothing else being left, but there still roughly 8-10k left to count.

Wasn't sure exactly how many votes remained, but either way, it was in the context of Begich's 49456 votes.

Presumably, what remains will be slightly friendlier to Peltola that what has been counted thus far, meaning it will at minimum slightly increase both the raw vote margin and percentage that Palin needs in second preferences from Begich (which I imagine regardless, will be anywhere from 65-70% in the end - probably closer to 70%).  

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1563373089773068290?s=21&t=ImEKx6RT...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I love this seeing Palin lose

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That hill is getting a little steeper for Palin...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Note there's only 5 precincts left. I'll assume they're heavily Native precincts in the Bush, but I can't see Peltola's lead increasing by much in raw numbers. Still 16k may be quite the steep climb for Palin with Begich voters disliking her so much.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like the rounding on the last batch threw off the real numbers a bit (I approximated).

At any rate, here's pre- and post-new batch figures with 3 scenarios showing what Palin needs.

If the few remaining precincts/votes are close in size and composition to this most recent dump, then Palin's share to win in all below scenarios will get bumped up by another 2 percentage points or so.

EDIT: I also didn't factor in write-in votes/transfers here; including those, Palin's needed % likely drops by a fraction of a point in all scenarios.

With 100% Begich Transfer

Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 49456
Palin Need: 31325  63.34%

Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 52320
Palin Need: 34333   65.62%

With 90% Begich Transfer

Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 44510
Palin Need: 28852  64.82%

Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 47088
Palin Need: 31718   67.36%

With 80% Begich Transfer

Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 39565
Palin Need: 26380  66.67%

Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 41856
Palin Need: 29102   69.53%

[TwinGeeks99]

Looks like the rounding on the last batch threw off the real numbers a bit (I approximated).

At any rate, here's pre- and post-new batch figures with 3 scenarios showing what Palin needs.

If the few remaining precincts/votes are close in size and composition to this most recent dump, then Palin's share to win in all below scenarios will get bumped up by another 2 percentage points or so.

EDIT: I also didn't factor in write-in votes/transfers here; including those, Palin's needed % likely drops by a fraction of a point in all scenarios.

With 100% Begich Transfer

Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 49456
Palin Need: 31325  63.34%

Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 52320
Palin Need: 34333   65.62%

With 90% Begich Transfer

Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 44510
Palin Need: 28852  64.82%

Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 47088
Palin Need: 31718   67.36%

With 80% Begich Transfer

Pre-Dump
Peltola +13194
Begich 39565
Palin Need: 26380  66.67%

Post-Dump
Peltola +16347
Begich 41856
Palin Need: 29102   69.53%

How likely do you think it is that she hits those numbers?

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036?s=20&t=NMYQmYuZ6xv...

This is just not believable at all. Palin is expected to get somewhere in the vicinity of 2/3 of Begich’s voters, which while not great is still much better than she gets statewide.

I’d rather be Peltola at this point though. I’m expecting a Peltola win of 1 or 2 points.

[Adam Griffin]

...

How likely do you think it is that she hits those numbers?

People who know the state better than I do seem to think it could go either way - though in the past few days, most believe that Peltola has been meeting or exceeding what she needs to break even. Originally, it was believed that Peltola needed to be 9-10 points ahead of Palin and at 40-41% to get to 50: she's currently 8.7 points ahead and at 39.64%.

Depending on what exactly is left, it's possible that Peltola could win with as little as 29-30% of Begich's transfers (assuming Peltola gets a majority of what [1] preferences remain, does comparably well with write-in transfers and somewhere between 15-20% of Begich's votes exhaust).

[windjammer]

Alright,
i think the dem is going to win this.
Excluding the write ins she's at 40% and from what I have Seen this should be enough

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563500242900660224

[Nyvin]

A big threat to Palin might be that a big chunk of Begich voters simply dont put anyone for second choice,  that would work to Peltola's advantage.

[windjammer]

I would rather be Peltola than Palin frankly but I could be wrong!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This proves we can win wave insurance seats not the H but in the Senate look out Rs OH, NC, FL and TX

I expect D's to rack up wins for Gov and the SENATE

[GeorgiaModerate]

Analysis by Ivan Moore (Alaska Survey Research) has the race on a knife edge.  Click to read the whole thread.

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1563518077664251907

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz now says a blue tsunami can indeed happen in November, that's why Kelly is up 10 and Fetterman not up 2/3 pts

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563013899473276929

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A Democrat with a genuine shot at winning a House seat that has been represented by a Republican since 1973, all with a Democrat in the White House AND relatively poor economic conditions??

Really enjoying this season, writers doing a fantastic job.  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563013899473276929

Is this true though? Based on the initial primary data from a few months ago Peltolas votes would probably transfer to Gross, putting him above Begich and ending up with a similar top two. Now some votes may have been exhausted through these transfers and Gross and Peltola are not the same person, but the final round would still be Palin vs not-Begich.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A Democrat with a genuine shot at winning a House seat that has been represented by a Republican since 1973, all with a Democrat in the White House AND relatively poor economic conditions??

Really enjoying this season, writers doing a fantastic job.  

Well, they're getting a little farfetched when you consider that the last Democrat to hold the job was the grandfather of one of the Republican candidates in this year's election!

[windjammer]

I Hope if Peltola wins, Sabato and Cook are going to f***ing update their ratings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I'm not sure where this talking point is coming from that Gross dropping out made a huge difference. Maybe Peltola is a stronger candidate in the later rounds than Gross is, but even if the order was R/R/D/D then after the lowest D was dropped their votes would transfer and put the other D in at least second place.

[wbrocks67]

I Hope if Peltola wins, Sabato and Cook are going to f***ing update their ratings

eh, I expect them to be overly cautious all the way up until Nov. They still seem to really not understand this environment.

[7,052,770]

Yeah I'm not sure where this talking point is coming from that Gross dropping out made a huge difference. Maybe Peltola is a stronger candidate in the later rounds than Gross is, but even if the order was R/R/D/D then after the lowest D was dropped their votes would transfer and put the other D in at least second place.

I guess there's the possibility of some Alaskans just not really grasping how to do RCV and just voting for 1 candidate, so some Gross voters would have expired without going to Peltola.