UK Local Elections 2022

[Blair]

Observation from Wimbledon: the leaflets through the door recently have been marked by an increasingly vicious (and admittedly rather comical) Labour-Lib Dem battle. In fact, by this point I would go so far as to say it’s open bar chart warfare, with both parties dragging out their own graphs to convince voters the other CAN’T WIN HERE. But for the blue bars on the leaflets, you’d hardly know the Tories were running.

Anyway, this certainly links into whispers I’ve been hearing that Labour are worried about losing overall control to a Lib Dem surge. While I think it’s pretty likely the Lib Dems will leapfrog the Tories into second place, I reckon Labour have enough of a cushion in Mitcham to be able to hang on. Ultimately, it will come down to how many seats the Lib Dems can directly steal from Labour, or will gain solely from the Tories.

I realise this is a bit parochial, but Merton could possibly end up providing a bit of under-the-radar excitement in London whilst everyone’s attention is focused on the marquee Tory-Labour scraps in Wandsworth etc.

Wimbledon is going to be hilarious at the next general election; both Labour and the liberals are convinced it’s their target seat and well they’re not wrong.

[Blair]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/26/labour-on-thin-ice-at-local-elections-despite-poll-lead-warn-party-chiefs

"Labour on ‘thin ice’ at local elections despite poll lead, warn party chiefs"

Is this mostly about expectations management?

Largely yeah but the results will not be as lopsided as people think- especially as iirc (others please correct me!) there aren’t lots of seats for the Lib Dems to win from the Tories either. The 2018 and 2019 results were so bad for the Tories because the Lib Dems won a lot of well safe conservative seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/26/labour-on-thin-ice-at-local-elections-despite-poll-lead-warn-party-chiefs

"Labour on ‘thin ice’ at local elections despite poll lead, warn party chiefs"

Is this mostly about expectations management?

Largely yeah but the results will not be as lopsided as people think- especially as iirc (others please correct me!) there aren’t lots of seats for the Lib Dems to win from the Tories either. The 2018 and 2019 results were so bad for the Tories because the Lib Dems won a lot of well safe conservative seats.

Labour saw the Tories claiming they'd lose perhaps even a thousand seats as a 'par' result, and decided they had to set things straight.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/26/labour-on-thin-ice-at-local-elections-despite-poll-lead-warn-party-chiefs

"Labour on ‘thin ice’ at local elections despite poll lead, warn party chiefs"

Is this mostly about expectations management?

Largely yeah but the results will not be as lopsided as people think- especially as iirc (others please correct me!) there aren’t lots of seats for the Lib Dems to win from the Tories either. The 2018 and 2019 results were so bad for the Tories because the Lib Dems won a lot of well safe conservative seats.

This, at least, is not entirely true. Brexit "realignment" works both ways and whilst Labour is because of that still likely to do worse than 2018 in some places (though given polls, a diminishing number) it also applies to the Tories in strong "remain" areas - and the LibDems stand in many cases to benefit.

[Blair]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/26/labour-on-thin-ice-at-local-elections-despite-poll-lead-warn-party-chiefs

"Labour on ‘thin ice’ at local elections despite poll lead, warn party chiefs"

Is this mostly about expectations management?

Largely yeah but the results will not be as lopsided as people think- especially as iirc (others please correct me!) there aren’t lots of seats for the Lib Dems to win from the Tories either. The 2018 and 2019 results were so bad for the Tories because the Lib Dems won a lot of well safe conservative seats.

This, at least, is not entirely true. Brexit "realignment" works both ways and whilst Labour is because of that still likely to do worse than 2018 in some places (though given polls, a diminishing number) it also applies to the Tories in strong "remain" areas - and the LibDems stand in many cases to benefit.

I assumed they’d largely already lost these seats!

[Blair]

There was a poll in the Standard today for London with Labour on 50 and the Tories on 23.

Would depend on how this translates but it could cause some interesting results.

[Blair]

Pretty hilarious to see Tories briefing they might lose Kensington- would require Labour to flip 13 seats and would be a council they’ve neither won!

[EastAnglianLefty]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How likely is Wandsworth to flip to Labour?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

[EastAnglianLefty]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The Kensington constituency doesn't include Chelsea, which is very safely Conservative. North Kensington is very strong for Labour and there are a few other pockets of support scattered about, but Chelsea and South Kensington are incredibly wealthy and their electorates are rock-solid Conservative under any conceivable circumstances.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The areas that now cover RBKC has long mixed ultra-poor and ultra-rich. The Kensington constituency covers the northernmost 75% or so of RBKC; the southern 25% is perhaps as posh as you can find in London. Labour has a massive hill to climb to actually win a majority in RBKC.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The areas that now cover RBKC has long mixed ultra-poor and ultra-rich. The Kensington constituency covers the northernmost 75% or so of RBKC; the southern 25% is perhaps as posh as you can find in London. Labour has a massive hill to climb to actually win a majority in RBKC.

Perhaps a majority is out of reach, but couldn't the council got to NOC if the Lib Dems make gains in the rich southern bit ?

[icc]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The Kensington constituency doesn't include Chelsea, which is very safely Conservative. North Kensington is very strong for Labour and there are a few other pockets of support scattered about, but Chelsea and South Kensington are incredibly wealthy and their electorates are rock-solid Conservative under any conceivable circumstances.

And, actually, if the Kensington constituency was its own council a Labour majority would still be a massive, massive longshot due to the spread of support in the seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The areas that now cover RBKC has long mixed ultra-poor and ultra-rich. The Kensington constituency covers the northernmost 75% or so of RBKC; the southern 25% is perhaps as posh as you can find in London. Labour has a massive hill to climb to actually win a majority in RBKC.

Perhaps a majority is out of reach, but couldn't the council got to NOC if the Lib Dems make gains in the rich southern bit ?

If literally everything goes wrong for the Tories, I guess it's possible.

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The Kensington constituency doesn't include Chelsea, which is very safely Conservative. North Kensington is very strong for Labour and there are a few other pockets of support scattered about, but Chelsea and South Kensington are incredibly wealthy and their electorates are rock-solid Conservative under any conceivable circumstances.

And, actually, if the Kensington constituency was its own council a Labour majority would still be a massive, massive longshot due to the spread of support in the seat.

So what you're saying is that there's a lot of Labour votes in Kensington, but it's concentrated in some wards in the north and thus inefficiently distributed?

[EastAnglianLefty]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The areas that now cover RBKC has long mixed ultra-poor and ultra-rich. The Kensington constituency covers the northernmost 75% or so of RBKC; the southern 25% is perhaps as posh as you can find in London. Labour has a massive hill to climb to actually win a majority in RBKC.

Perhaps a majority is out of reach, but couldn't the council got to NOC if the Lib Dems make gains in the rich southern bit ?

If literally everything goes wrong for the Tories, I guess it's possible.

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The Kensington constituency doesn't include Chelsea, which is very safely Conservative. North Kensington is very strong for Labour and there are a few other pockets of support scattered about, but Chelsea and South Kensington are incredibly wealthy and their electorates are rock-solid Conservative under any conceivable circumstances.

And, actually, if the Kensington constituency was its own council a Labour majority would still be a massive, massive longshot due to the spread of support in the seat.

So what you're saying is that there's a lot of Labour votes in Kensington, but it's concentrated in some wards in the north and thus inefficiently distributed?

The Kensington constituency is made up of 13 RBKC wards and a portion of another. Those 13 wards return 35 councillors, of whom one is a Lib Dem, 13 are Labour and the remaining 21 are Tories. Earls Court ward (2 Tories, 1 LD) is somewhat marginal, but there's only one other ward that would fall to Labour on a 10% swing since 2018 and that only just.

The Tory wards are very safe, the Labour wards are mostly even safer and there are almost no swing voters - you didn't even see them in 2018 when the backdrop to the election was the council's incompetence and lack of interest in its tenants leading to the deaths of over 70 people in the Grenfell fire.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Kensington constituency is made up of 13 RBKC wards and a portion of another. Those 13 wards return 35 councillors, of whom one is a Lib Dem, 13 are Labour and the remaining 21 are Tories. Earls Court ward (2 Tories, 1 LD) is somewhat marginal, but there's only one other ward that would fall to Labour on a 10% swing since 2018 and that only just.

The Tory wards are very safe, the Labour wards are mostly even safer and there are almost no swing voters - you didn't even see them in 2018 when the backdrop to the election was the council's incompetence and lack of interest in its tenants leading to the deaths of over 70 people in the Grenfell fire.

Wikipedia says that in 2018, there was media speculation that Labour could take the council.
With electoral geography like this, it's almost mind-boggling that Tory control was ever in question.
How many people could possibly believe it it's under threat this time?
Also: how did Linda Wade get elected in the Earl's Court ward and why does she do so well?

[YL]

The Kensington constituency is made up of 13 RBKC wards and a portion of another. Those 13 wards return 35 councillors, of whom one is a Lib Dem, 13 are Labour and the remaining 21 are Tories. Earls Court ward (2 Tories, 1 LD) is somewhat marginal, but there's only one other ward that would fall to Labour on a 10% swing since 2018 and that only just.

The Tory wards are very safe, the Labour wards are mostly even safer and there are almost no swing voters - you didn't even see them in 2018 when the backdrop to the election was the council's incompetence and lack of interest in its tenants leading to the deaths of over 70 people in the Grenfell fire.

Wikipedia says that in 2018, there was media speculation that Labour could take the council.
With electoral geography like this, it's almost mind-boggling that Tory control was ever in question.
How many people could possibly believe it it's under threat this time?
Also: how did Linda Wade get elected in the Earl's Court ward and why does she do so well?

If there was media speculation about Labour taking control of RBKC then that says more about our media than it does about either the borough or the Labour Party.

I think it's also the case that the sort of Tory voters you get there are considerably less likely than most Tory demographics to shift to the Lib Dems or other non-Labour alternatives to the Tories; after all, as EAL pointed out above, they by and large didn't even in 2018 when there was a very obvious reason, specific to that council, to want to vote for a change of control.  I would be astonished if the borough went NOC.

[Oryxslayer]

The Kensington constituency is made up of 13 RBKC wards and a portion of another. Those 13 wards return 35 councillors, of whom one is a Lib Dem, 13 are Labour and the remaining 21 are Tories. Earls Court ward (2 Tories, 1 LD) is somewhat marginal, but there's only one other ward that would fall to Labour on a 10% swing since 2018 and that only just.

The Tory wards are very safe, the Labour wards are mostly even safer and there are almost no swing voters - you didn't even see them in 2018 when the backdrop to the election was the council's incompetence and lack of interest in its tenants leading to the deaths of over 70 people in the Grenfell fire.

Wikipedia says that in 2018, there was media speculation that Labour could take the council.
With electoral geography like this, it's almost mind-boggling that Tory control was ever in question.
How many people could possibly believe it it's under threat this time?
Also: how did Linda Wade get elected in the Earl's Court ward and why does she do so well?

If there was media speculation about Labour taking control of RBKC then that says more about our media than it does about either the borough or the Labour Party.

I think it's also the case that the sort of Tory voters you get there are considerably less likely than most Tory demographics to shift to the Lib Dems or other non-Labour alternatives to the Tories; after all, as EAL pointed out above, they by and large didn't even in 2018 when there was a very obvious reason, specific to that council, to want to vote for a change of control.  I would be astonished if the borough went NOC.

I wouldn't discount the possibility of concentrated swing, something that is becoming more and more common.  Essentially,  if the national topline is Labour + 4, then there will be some areas where it's Labour+10, and others that are no overall swing. That said, the way you describe it suggests that even a large swing is unlikely to affect overall control.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes but it isn't going to be the case there.

[JimJamUK]

Yes but it isn't going to be the case there.

While the 2 constituencies covering the council area were relatively poor Conservative results in the 2019 GE (it part due to the Lib Dem targeting), ‘Conservative remainers’ are pretty much the most resilient group of Conservative voters post-2019, and before their recent polling troubles there were actually many returning to the Conservatives (particularly those who had switched to the Lib Dems). Even now, YouGov polling has found Johnson’s approval rating among remainers is down by only about 5% since the 2019 election, while it’s down 20% among leavers.

Beyond the depolarisation around Brexit and Corbyn’s specific ability to alienate cultural conservatives, it’s also hard to imagine Kensington and Chelsea being the area where the Conservatives current woes around Partygate (‘one rule for them’) and the cost of living crisis are going to disproportionately hurt them.

[Alcibiades]

Yes but it isn't going to be the case there.

While the 2 constituencies covering the council area were relatively poor Conservative results in the 2019 GE (it part due to the Lib Dem targeting), ‘Conservative remainers’ are pretty much the most resilient group of Conservative voters post-2019, and before their recent polling troubles there were actually many returning to the Conservatives (particularly those who had switched to the Lib Dems). Even now, YouGov polling has found Johnson’s approval rating among remainers is down by only about 5% since the 2019 election, while it’s down 20% among leavers.

Beyond the depolarisation around Brexit and Corbyn’s specific ability to alienate cultural conservatives, it’s also hard to imagine Kensington and Chelsea being the area where the Conservatives current woes around Partygate (‘one rule for them’) and the cost of living crisis are going to disproportionately hurt them.

Although admittedly these areas actually saw some of the heftiest swings to Labour at the 2021 mayoral election. Admittedly this was probably partly due to Khan, having positioned himself as a defender of pro-European liberal London values throughout his tenure, having strong personal appeal among these kinds of voters, and thus we shouldn’t read too much into it especially as it relates to council elections, but still an interesting tidbit.

(Also we shouldn’t conflate K&C with the likes of SW London. Whilst similarly inclined liberal Remainer professionals certainly do exist, it’s in rather smaller numbers. The area is simply far more Tory, and slightly, but noticeably, less Remain-voting.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that in every single London Mayoral election to feature an incumbent to date, said incumbent has performed well (relative to both their party and the general circumstances of the election) in affluent wards in Inner London and poorly (again relative to etc) in shabbier wards in Outer London. Given that Livingstone, Johnson and Khan are all politicians with rather different images, politics and styles this is suggestive of something structural. Given that the Mayor's only real powers are over strategic planning and a few regulatory functions and that this results in the post becoming a bully pulpit for London it isn't hard to work out the reasons...

[Blair]

I always assumed it had a below average population too e.g a lot of rich pensioners/bachelors living in town houses compared to the parts of London

[YL]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of concentrated swing, something that is becoming more and more common.  Essentially,  if the national topline is Labour + 4, then there will be some areas where it's Labour+10, and others that are no overall swing. That said, the way you describe it suggests that even a large swing is unlikely to affect overall control.

Even more so in local elections of course, where there are very likely to be plenty of places with detectably different patterns due to unpopular councils (or unwind of effects of councils which were unpopular four years ago).  I just don't see that being the case in Kensington & Chelsea, though, especially as you'd have thought that the council would have been being punished four years ago more than now.

What I expect, in general, is something like:
- Labour making advances against the Tories, but not overwhelmingly (this is not 1994/95/96) and with some disappointments.  And don't be too surprised if those disappointments include Wandsworth, which has been Tory for 44 years, including 1994, and where the ward boundaries are not particularly favourable to Labour.
- Lib Dems and Greens doing well in some places due to effective local campaigning and targeting, especially where they're targeting the Tories.  But some established Lib Dem groups might fall back.