UK Local Elections 2022

[CumbrianLefty]

Rumours of Harrow being a possible Tory gain- it’s been a long ran Labour council and has iirc a large British Indian community who aren’t exactly in love with Labour.

Angela Rayner visited today.

Same rumours four years ago, in the end there was relatively little change. And a former senior Tory on the council has just said they will be voting Labour, and urged others to do likewise.

[YL]

It's interesting to note that the leaflet circulating on Twitter pleading for voters not to punish "local Conservatives for local people" for "the mistakes made in Westminster" is from Hartlepool.

[Democratic Hawk]

Be interesting to see what happens in Hillingdon in the wards comprising Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1521957860887912448?s=20&t=31gh3QVn...



Britianelects estimates. FTR, I listened into his shop-talk two days ago, and I think they are low-balling Labour. Not for any fault, but because the main benchmark in many places was last years locals which was repeatedly said by him to basically be viewed as a repeat of the 2019 GE. If the margins reverse, which polls say they have, one would expect a good chunk of the northern areas that went blue to flip back red. Not because of a reversion, but more a situation where a new marginal swings because it's a marginal. So even though Labour are in a strong position in many of these council's selection of seats that are up, cause they were last contested in 2018, there should still be room for some growth alongside those holds.

[JimJamUK]

Britainelects estimates. FTR, I listened into his shop-talk two days ago, and I think they are low-balling Labour. Not for any fault, but because the main benchmark in many places was last years locals which was repeatedly said by him to basically be viewed as a repeat of the 2019 GE. If the margins reverse, which polls say they have, one would expect a good chunk of the northern areas that went blue to flip back red. Not because of a reversion, but more a situation where a new marginal swings because it's a marginal. So even though Labour are in a strong position in many of these council's selection of seats that are up, cause they were last contested in 2018, there should still be room for some growth alongside those holds.

Completely agree. To think of it another way, Labour currently has a ~6% lead over the Conservatives compared to a draw in 2018, a ~10% Conservative lead in 2017/2021, and a 12% Conservative lead in the 2019 general election. Regardless of which baseline you look from Labour are getting a decent to large swing to them and it has to be happening somewhere. Polling indicates Labour are getting their biggest swing among older voters/Leavers, and its not clear how many more votes Labour can get in their safe inner city areas (particularly with the generic Green vote up and London polling indicating, at best, an average swing). Therefore, Labour should be getting a good swing in the English and Welsh marginals, and if they're not then somethings gone wrong for them.

[afleitch]

It's essentially saying that the only measurable Labour gains and Conservative loses are due to a 're-sort' in unionist preferences in Scotland.

Bold.

[Blair]

I wonder how the timings of results will influence the sleep addled political class.

I think we have the North-east and Northwest first (with Sunderland the first big result) and then the London results early in the morning (between 5-7am) and then the rest of England trickles in with Scotland, NI and Wales.

I’m sad enough that my body clock automatically wakes me up at 4am on election result nights…

[afleitch]

Bit later to vote today, as because there's preference voting I had to spend some time ensuring I wasn't voting for an existing or budding TERF loon who'd be commenting on toilets at every planning meeting.

[afleitch]

Done.

Four seater ward

SNP 1 and 2.
Greens 3 (almost placed them higher)
TUSC 4
Labour 5 and 6
Lib Dems 7

No preferences for Tories or ALBA

[Oryxslayer]

The map shows Seats won in the MMDs last time London voted, courtesy of the ElectionMapsUK blog. One wonders how much Blue will remain after tonight. Certainly a lot of Tories will be reelected, but how many won't...

I wonder how the timings of results will influence the sleep addled political class.

I think we have the North-east and Northwest first (with Sunderland the first big result) and then the London results early in the morning (between 5-7am) and then the rest of England trickles in with Scotland, NI and Wales.

I’m sad enough that my body clock automatically wakes me up at 4am on election result nights…

The commentariot won't realize it, but I think Labour can look forward to a good night if they hold Sunderland and hold it without significant losses. No overall Control looms here, and if a rising national tide can keep the current delegation in place, well...

[beesley]

Quiet at the polling station though that is almost certainly due to the time I was there. +1 vote for Labour (opponents were Tories, Libs and TUSC).

[CumbrianLefty]

The commentariot won't realize it, but I think Labour can look forward to a good night if they hold Sunderland and hold it without significant losses. No overall Control looms here, and if a rising national tide can keep the current delegation in place, well...

This year could well be the "best" chance for Sunderland to go NOC, as Labour's results in 2021 and (especially) 2019 were significantly worse than four years ago. I agree with you that if they hold their ground here, that is a good omen for the night ahead.

[Duke of York]

will bbc unlock their live stream so international viewers can watch the results this year? I watched last year.

[LabourJersey]

I have a question, why are so many councilors bad people?

Bad as in contemptible, or bad as in stupid/incompetent?

If you mean the latter, I'm guessing it's because the barrier to entry in local politics in most countries is much lower than you or I would hope it was, meaning some particularly eccentric/dumb people can manage to finagle their way into a local Council (this is even more true in the US)

[njwes]

What are a couple best websites that you guys would suggest for returns when they start come in?

[Duke of York]

What are a couple best websites that you guys would suggest for returns when they start come in?

BBC news should have a livestream available to international viewers starting around 630 PM EST.

[njwes]

What are a couple best websites that you guys would suggest for returns when they start come in?

BBC news should have a livestream available to international viewers starting around 630 PM EST.

Thank you!

[bore]

Turnout for the specific period I went to vote (5pm in edinburgh) was brisk, but then I looked at the list and barely any names were crossed out so its impossible to say what will happen.

[MABA 2020]

Just got back from my polling station which was dead, apparently it's been dead all day so based on that anecdotal evidence I'd expect low turnout

[njwes]

Will the see election results start to trickle in late tonight, or will these overwhelmingly be tomorrow morning like the NI results?

[Alcibiades]

When I went to vote earlier at around 5pm, I was the only person in the polling station. Seen a fair few Lib Dem signs around (and this was a ward where they finished third last time, though they’ve clearly been targeting it this year), and none for any of the others.

[beesley]

Will the see election results start to trickle in late tonight, or will these overwhelmingly be tomorrow morning like the NI results?

A mixture - not sure exactly but about half and half, or at least not at all overwhelming either way.

If you're interested in a particular council have a look here: https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/

[Oryxslayer]

If anyone wanted a map, the @BritianElects/New Statesman link is live. Any colors on the map at this moment are the results from last election in said seats, be it 2021, 2019, or 2018, as long as the wards were not changed through redistricting. For example MMD seats contested last in 2018 show 2018, whereas 'rotation' seats where a different class of councilors were elected each year show the 2021 results.

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/2022-uk-election-results/

[Logical]

Take it with a grain of salt and all the usual health warnings.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1522334067194306560

[YL]

The first Sunderland ward is in: a Labour hold in Silksworth with a substantial swing to them since last year and even a small swing to them since 2018. If that’s typical they’ll be fine there.