UK Local Elections 2022

[Blair]

London Labour campaign launch was in Barnet- with both Keir and Sadiq.

Hardly surprising- it’s the London borough I reckon LOTO most want to win and I think Sadiq might have performed well there in his rather awful 2021 election.

[Alcibiades]

London Labour campaign launch was in Barnet- with both Keir and Sadiq.

Hardly surprising- it’s the London borough I reckon LOTO most want to win and I think Sadiq might have performed well there in his rather awful 2021 election.

I actually think he lost Barnet quite handily and probably underperformed Labour’s 2019 showing in the constituencies covering the borough — not surprising, as outer North London was fairly brutal for him in 2021.

[JimJamUK]

Until the 2021 seats come up again in 2025, I don't think Labour can realistically come back in the majority, and even then, it would have to involve some kind of reversal of Labour's fortunes with the white working-class.

This is an underrated point more generally. The 2016, 2018 and 2019 election results were all fairly even between Labour and the Conservatives. Conversely, 2021 was a very strong result for the Conservatives. This means that in places where for a few years it has been neck and neck between the 2 major parties, the Conservatives now have a significant advantage in seat numbers. Labour might be able to tip the balance if they have a good year both this year and 2023, but otherwise it will often be a waiting game for 2025 to roll around and deliver some gains (regardless of circumstance, its hard to see Labour noticeably underperforming their 2021 result in 2025).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was once a time when this would be a genuine political problem for Labour (who, in opposition, tended to use local government as a redoubt from which to oppose the government at local level), but with local government so emaciated these days it is (if we're being honest) a largely symbolic matter.

[somerandomth]

The thing about 2025 results though is that it will be after the general election, and assuming Labour somehow manage to get into government (whether through coalition or majority) (which I know is a big if), then it is unlikely Labour will see huge gains given that they will be the governing party. So then, would we be waiting till 2029 for a good showing from the set of seats up in 2021 if they manage to win the next electoin?
(I know we just saw in 2021 that the Conservatives had a very good showing despite being the governing party, but this is almost definitely bucking the trend that we generally see in British politics, but hey ho, literally everything since 2015 has been.)

I know there's a sh**t ton of hypotheticals and assumptions in this arguments, but it's pretty interesting to see how just one off year can have a large impact on the balance of power for many councils for years to come.

[Conservatopia]

I do wish the system whereby only a third of councillors are up for election would be abolished.

It makes it hard to boot out rubbish councils.

That being said, I live in a rubbish council, we elect all our seats at once, and yet still the Tories are in power. But that's just testament to how useless the LolDems are.

[beesley]

I would rather have elections by thirds than all outs every four years. In my home authority of Southampton if all goes well we can boot out our current council after a year. Yet my family elsewhere have had to endure four years of sh*t and piss even though the Tories had a majority of 2 at the last election.

Perhaps all outs every two years would be fair. I don't know, but I think local elections should just be frequent?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps all outs every two years would be fair. I don't know, but I think local elections should just be frequent?

If anything the terms for councillors are far too long, as can be noted simply from how frequent resignations are! This is before we consider the democratic problems of lengthy terms, which would be more serious if councils had the power that they historically did (and was an issue then!) even if it's largely a symbolic problem at present.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Prior to the 1970s councillors were elected to three-year rather than four-year terms. All councils work on an annual budget cycle. The major difference between councils electing all at once and councils using the thirds system is that in the former case it's easier to get away with doing unpleasant stuff in a budget because you've got more time for people to forget it.

[YL]

I do wish the system whereby only a third of councillors are up for election would be abolished.

It makes it hard to boot out rubbish councils.

That being said, I live in a rubbish council, we elect all our seats at once, and yet still the Tories are in power. But that's just testament to how useless the LolDems are.

I don't think it does, actually: the disadvantage that we can only kick out a third of the council each time is cancelled out, probably more than cancelled out, by the fact that we have three times the number of opportunities to do so.  (Compared with all up elections every four years.)

That said I would probably prefer all up elections every two years.  Electing by thirds means that all our wards have to be three seaters (well they don't quite have to be, but they are, and that's the LGBCE's strong preference) and that means they have to be enormous.

[JimJamUK]

A major benefit of election by thirds is that councils can notice when their electors are getting pissed off about an issue. Whether this be a ward specific issue or general dissatisfaction with the council, they have the opportunity to do better rather than take massive beating immediately. Of course, this depends on the council leadership being willing to acknowledge fault and change things, which in the case of some councils has absolutely not happened and repeated punishment from the voters has rightly followed.

[YL]

Wakefield (Lab 43, Con 16, Lib Dem 2, Ind 1, vacant 1) Labour had a poor result last year, but are still reasonably secure for control this year.  The vacancy is a Labour seat in South Elmsall & South Kirkby, which again elects two councillors this year.

There may be a certain amount of extra attention on this one now.

Separately from the reason for that, there's a certain amount of chaos in the local Tories.  Their group leader, Nic Stansby, is up for election this year in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ward, but she is defending her seat as an Independent after the local party deselected her and nominated someone else.  As of today she's still shown on the council website as Conservative Group Leader.

[Wiswylfen]

Sunderland Labour have been quite unfairly maligned and I think they'll do better than many are expecting (and hoping).

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunderland Labour have been quite unfairly maligned and I think they'll do better than many are expecting (and hoping).

Dunno about that, but it does seem they may now be over the worst.

[Blair]

Two interesting by election results- Labour won a ward in Bishop Auckland which ironically they lost when the ex MP stood last year (MPs ofc are often more unpopular than a random community activist)

It was a relatively marginal ward but the type you’d expect Labour to win.

More strange was a ward in Surrey Heath- although being surrey Heath I’m sure there was a house trying to be build which caused local opposition or something similar.

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1514669931496976397

[Blair]

Am I right in that Labours best results could be in Wales?

Seems to be a number of places they did very badly in 2017 and where they did well last year…

[JimJamUK]

Am I right in that Labours best results could be in Wales?

Seems to be a number of places they did very badly in 2017 and where they did well last year…

Hard to say. They actually did about as well vs the Conservatives in the disastrous 2017 locals as in the 2017 general election. This likely indicates that Welsh Labour are able to do much better at local elections, but could also indicate that a lot of swing voters were already backing them last time so there's not much room to grow (and in a lot of places where this pattern was evident in England in 2017, the 2021 results were not pretty, suggesting a lot of these voters are losable locally on a bad night). They've also left swathes of council seats uncontested, which will limit their ability to actually gain seats (the Tories have done well on this front, though it may not help them much this time). OTOH, they should be aiming to do better vs independents, in part helped by the Conservatives splitting the Not-Labour voter in many more wards this time, in part by national Labour just generally being less poisonous than last time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anecdotal of course but there's stacks of signs for the LolDems around Somerset and talk of them making a real play for it. They performed well in 2019 locals around the area so the votes are certainly there.

I think it's shaping up to be a bit like 2019 across the board with big losses for Tories and gains for localists and LDs. Greens and Labour will make gains but probably not as much as the localists.

In 2019 Labour made overall losses (partly because it was the real start of the "Great Realignment" which even the overall wretched Tory showing couldn't fully hide) so if they make significant gains next month it would be for the first time since 2014.

[YL]

Any guesses which party delivered this leaflet in North Tyneside?


Actually it was delivered by the Tories (and it has a Tory imprint) in an apparent attempt to split the anti-Tory vote.

[Wiswylfen]

Any guesses which party delivered this leaflet in North Tyneside?


Actually it was delivered by the Tories (and it has a Tory imprint) in an apparent attempt to split the anti-Tory vote.

The North Tyneside Conservatives used to dominate locally. Now they're facing allegations of furlough fraud and have students running around Preston Grange after dog mess: how the mighty are fallen.

[Blair]

New poll had Labour at 45% in London, Tories on 25%.

So only sees 1% rise for Labour compared to 2018 but if the Tory vote keeps sinking and keeps sinking in certain wards it could see some councils flipping.

[beesley]

Only anecdotal evidence, but things seem to be going Labour's way a bit more in Southampton. Campaigning seems to have shifted with less activity in Swaythling and Redbridge (Labour defences) and more towards Millbrook and Coxford (a key target and Labour's most vulnerable ward).  If Labour held all its wards and gained two (Millbrook and Peartree most likely, and the latter is expected as Labour's candidate is a strong performer), it would gain control.

[Alcibiades]

Observation from Wimbledon: the leaflets through the door recently have been marked by an increasingly vicious (and admittedly rather comical) Labour-Lib Dem battle. In fact, by this point I would go so far as to say it’s open bar chart warfare, with both parties dragging out their own graphs to convince voters the other CAN’T WIN HERE. But for the blue bars on the leaflets, you’d hardly know the Tories were running.

Anyway, this certainly links into whispers I’ve been hearing that Labour are worried about losing overall control to a Lib Dem surge. While I think it’s pretty likely the Lib Dems will leapfrog the Tories into second place, I reckon Labour have enough of a cushion in Mitcham to be able to hang on. Ultimately, it will come down to how many seats the Lib Dems can directly steal from Labour, or will gain solely from the Tories.

I realise this is a bit parochial, but Merton could possibly end up providing a bit of under-the-radar excitement in London whilst everyone’s attention is focused on the marquee Tory-Labour scraps in Wandsworth etc.

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/26/labour-on-thin-ice-at-local-elections-despite-poll-lead-warn-party-chiefs

"Labour on ‘thin ice’ at local elections despite poll lead, warn party chiefs"

Is this mostly about expectations management?