UK Local Elections 2022

[Blair]

Couldn't find a thread on this.

It will be an interesting set of elections; it's all of London's councils, Birmingham City Council & some of the 'big councils' in England are electing a third of their councillors. Some of these will be tough for Labour with Sunderland being the 'bright shiny object' for the lobby at the moment.

My knowledge of district/unitary councils is so appalling I won't even try and comment.

Scotland & Welsh councils are also up; in another era these would get a lot more focus and attention.

Summaries/expectations from people more knowledgeable than me would be appreciated!

[DL]

I assume most if not all of these council seats will have last been elected in 2018. Does anyone know what the estimated national popular vote was from the local elections of 2018 so we know what the baseline is?

Actually i see that 2018 was not a bad year for Labour and the estimated national popular vote was 35-35 - but these days Labour is typically ahead by 5 points or so AND the British tend to treat local elections as an opportunity to register a protest vote against an incumbent national government that is screwing up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

[Torrain]

I'm in Yorkshire at the minute, but am trying to stay up-to-date with the Scottish council elections, so will post anything significant that I come across there.

Hard to see the SNP having too bad year at the moment, and they could pick up outright majorities in regions like Glasgow and Fife, where they overtook Labour to become the plurality last time. However, given that the Tories are bracing for a bad night, a lot could come down to unionist swing voters. If they stay home or scatter, the SNP will be cracking open the champagne, but if they take a gamble on Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer, Labour could claw back some territory.

Scottish councils have a tendency to be end up as 'No Overall Control' in this political alignment, so I'd expect a lot of shuffling around, with a couple of big headlines but no earthquake.

The only thing that could significantly hurt the SNP is either a renewed support for Labour, or older voters taking a risk on Alba, if they dislike COVID policy, but neither the former (more likely) or the latter (rather unlikely) have emerged yet.

Key Council areas that I'll be watching are as follows:

• The Borders (and Dumfries and Galloway if we're being pedantic). The most Tory-friendly region of Scotland, if the Conservatives take a beating here, I think the Tories could be in for a 1997 level result here at the 2024 GE. If they narrowly retain the balance of power, I'd say the odds of local Conservative MPs like John Lamont, and Scotland Secretary Alister Jack surviving go up significantly - as the 'stop the SNP' calculus of recent years will have proven to have held firm, even in the face of partygate.
• East Fife - My home territory, and a source of frequent political disappointment. Lib Dem strength in the East will be crucial to gauging whether Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain can cling on next GE, in some of the last good territory for the party.
• West Fife - In the West, there are some key tests for Labour, in territory that Gordon Brown used to represent. This was won back in 2017, but lost in 2019. If Labour are on the rebound, it's going to take far better numbers in places like this.*
• Orkney and Shetland. The safest Lib Dem bastion in the nation. However, in the 2021 election, Shetland got historically close to an SNP pickup. Councillors are traditionally independent, but the election of party-affiliated candidates is sometimes an indication of political protest, so one to keep an eye on.
• Glasgow - the big prize, of course. Labour were thrashed last time around, and the Conservatives won seats in some traditionally working class areas. While the SNP are almost certain to remain in pole-position, their plurality/majority, and the number of seats held by Labour could tell us a lot - especially in territory that Labour won in 2017, only to lose in 2019.
• Aberdeenshire - the only other Tory territory in Westminster, this area is quite swingy, and will help election campaigners work out whether the political career of Andrew Bowie MP can be salvaged. Given recent comments by Oliver Dowden (he plans to run a seat-by-seat election, as per 2015, where the party plays defence and offense in a limited number of vulnerable swing seats), this could determine whether the guy is defended, or left out to dry.
• Aberdeen and Edinburgh both have regional quirks (Lib Dems do really quite well around the University of Edinburgh, and Tories can sometimes make the southern side of Aberdeen competitive), which may tell us more about the shifting dynamics, but will almost certainly be buried by the new from Glasgow etc on election night. There's a lot more to talk about here, but I'd need backup from those who know the local political culture better to help break it all down.
• Dundee is a one-party city, and the SNP would probably have a good night here even if Nicola Sturgeon had just drowned a puppy on BBC Scotland.

*Note that Fife is a single authority, but I'm nepotistic and breaking it into two bullet points to give it more impact (I guess I'm gerrymandering my list?)

[JimJamUK]

Context:

The 2018 local elections largely saw a repeat of trends seen in the 2017 general election. The polls had a small Conservative lead and the estimated Projected National Voting of the election was 35% apiece. As is standard, the Liberal Democrats, Green and independents did better than national polling would suggest (and this overperformance was of course most concentrated in places they actually campaigned in). Labour did well in London and other largely remain voting areas, while the Conservatives did well in more leave-orientated places. UKIP was almost entirely wiped out.

This year, the polls suggest Labour are doing about as well as they did nationally as in 2018. The Conservatives are polling 5-10% behind their 2018 polls, but i would expect a vote share loss on the lower end. The Liberal Democrats are polling marginally better. UKIP still had a small residual vote in 2018, the Brexit Reform Party are polling similar but seem to have even less organisation capability. The Greens were reduced to their core/name on a survey national support in 2018 and are polling double this year. They have also finally gotten their sh**t together in terms of Lib Dem style local campaigning the last few years so expect a load of newspaper articles proclaiming them a massive threat to the Tories when they win a few random villages in the middle of nowhere. Independents/minor parties did very well in 2019 off the back of the abysmal popular of our 2 major parties at the time. I would suggest this year may prove a good prospect for them as well (2021 was not, at least for those facing the Tories).

Scotland and Wales are harder to talk about given they were last up in May 2017 which was just before the big swing from the Conservatives to Labour (and the polls were clearly overestimating the gap even in early May). They also significantly overestimated the SNP. That said, the SNP seem poised to do much better this year while the Conservatives do quite a bit worse (though in seat numbers they may hold up better given under-nomination last time).

In Wales, there has been a substantial swing to Labour in national polling from a 5-10% Conservative lead to a 10-15% Labour lead. However, much of the national Conservative vote goes independent locally, theres a 5% Reform vote which won't be able to vote for said party, and if you focus in on the places where Labour and the Conservatives stood last time without too much vote for independents/smaller parties, it wasn't very different from how these wards would have voted at the 2017 general election. Therefore, I suspect the swing will be much more muted than it seems on paper. Plaid seem to be stagnating, and the Lib Dems continued collapse in their former heartlands may hurt them badly in seat numbers. The Greens are polling much better, but their Welsh branch doesn't seem very electorally capable so expect few gains.

[YL]

Full list at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_local_elections

Birmingham is all up, having been moved off the thirds cycle used by most Metropolitan Boroughs four years ago.  Some other Metropolitan Boroughs will also be all up due to boundary changes.  Liverpool is following Birmingham in 2023, and its elections this year have been cancelled, while Rotherham and Doncaster have also been moved off that cycle and don't have elections this year (except for the metro mayor; see below).

Re-organisation of local government means elections for the new authorities in Cumbria, North Yorkshire and Somerset.  In the latter two counties the districts are being abolished and the county is becoming a unitary, and there are elections there for the county councils.  Cumbria, OTOH, is being split into Cumberland, basically the historic county except for the bit around Penrith, and Westmorland and Furness, everything else; the split doesn't formally happen until April 2023, but elections for the new councils are being held this year.  I expect Westmorland & Furness to be No Overall Control, while Cumberland might be quite close between Labour and the Tories.

We also have the South Yorkshire mayoral election, but I don't expect it to be very interesting.  Oh, and Bristol has a referendum on abolishing the city's elected mayor position (not to be confused with the West of England metro mayor).

[JimJamUK]

It will be an interesting set of elections; it's all of London's councils, Birmingham City Council & some of the 'big councils' in England are electing a third of their councillors. Some of these will be tough for Labour with Sunderland being the 'bright shiny object' for the lobby at the moment.

Oh God, the 'analysis' is going to be unbearable. For context, Sunderland was a relatively poor result for Labour in 2018 (in part due to the unpopularity of the local council), which along with a few other poor early results helped set the media narrative before it later turned out that Labour and the Conservatives were basically tied nationally as was the case in 2014. Labour then had an absolutely shambolic night in 2019 with losses to just about everyone, with the council leader going on the national news to say that people were voting Lib Dem to show their support for Brexit (??) rather than because of any local issues. Labour 'only' lost 9 seats in 2021 which meant they actually won a majority of seats up that time, but i've seen no evidence that the council is getting any more popular so Labour should be braced for further losses.

[beesley]

Perhaps we should all point out some of our local areas.


An interesting fight in Southampton - after a devastating result for Labour last year, they are hoping to take back control against the Tory controlled council - apart from one ward each the Lib Dems and Greens (let alone anyone else) aren't likely to be a factor, though Hampshire Independents and TUSC (who had a presence here when they didn't use that name) will likely stand a few here and there. Labour have a path which is in some ways difficult - hold all their seats and gain two more, to win 11 out of the 16 wards. It's a tough asking, but they have an advantage in that the new Tory council hasn't exactly been much more popular (the fixing of private roads in Lordswood ahead of dilapidated ones elsewhere is fairly typical), though the most contentious issue of all, the closure of St. Mary's leisure centre is felt strongest in Bevois ward, Labour's safest.

In Winchester, the Lib Dem council is not the most popular due to a varied set of local issues and the possible recession of their post-Brexit high, and indeed there a lot of split wards up between them and the Conservatives where they are defending, but I would be surprised if they lost it. Labour are a non-factor here.

Eastleigh is even safer for the Lib Dems by current composition, but the popular vote was close last time. If there's a Conservative revival it'll be in the settlements that preceded the railway town of Eastleigh - Fair Oak and Horton Heath, Botley, Chandler's Ford and Hiltingbury where they are defending. On the issues, the same bread and butter issues related to local government come up - planning, refuse collection, local services, but in Bishopstoke ward particularly local residents have long been concerned about the borough's local plan, which will see the construction of a major road through green belt north of the village. Independents will win here off the back of it. The plan has been modified and now passed, so it will be interesting to see what sentiment manifests itself in Bishopstoke and neighbouring Fair Oak ward.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunderland Labour had a good result in a local by-election recently, the first time that's happened for ages. I would assume a further loss of seats is likely, but not that many this time and they ought to keep their majority. But, yes, the electoral travails of that administration are purely local in character. Some of the scandals have been beyond parody.

[YL]

Labour lost overall control of Sheffield last year, and lost another seat a few weeks ago when a left wing councillor left the party, leaving them with 40 out of 84.  Since last year's results they've continued to run the council but in coalition with the Greens (13 seats), who have developed considerable strength in the inner west of the city.  How much that Green strength will be damaged by coalition will be an interesting test; last year they won six wards and if they win them all again would gain three seats from Labour.  Meanwhile Labour and the Lib Dems (29 seats) will be the main constestants in several wards in various parts of the cit; Labour will need to do well against the yellows if they want their majority back.  Finally the Tories (1 seat) did much better last year than for some time and won one ward, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, where they gained the seat from a UKIP figure by then sitting as an Independent; they also came quite close in East Ecclesfield, but that was a close third in a three way marginal.

2018 results (and hence seats up this year):


2019 results:


2021 results (just party winners, whereas the other maps are shaded by majority):

[JimJamUK]

Sunderland Labour had a good result in a local by-election recently, the first time that's happened for ages. I would assume a further loss of seats is likely, but not that many this time and they ought to keep their majority. But, yes, the electoral travails of that administration are purely local in character. Some of the scandals have been beyond parody.

Well, their vote share held firm while the Tories/UKIP collapsed and the Lib Dem’s surged to a distant 2nd. It’s a very good result given the past by-elections, and the ward voted UKIP in 2019 so is clearly a bit schizophrenic, but still not great given the national picture. And given the media deal in gains/losses, I don’t think an objectively better result than last year will do Labour much good on election night either.

[Pericles]

Labour should have a great night in London. Besides being ahead by more now, Boris' Tories are a worse fit than May's there and Starmer is of course a better fit than Corbyn.

[JimJamUK]

Labour should have a great night in London. Besides being ahead by more now, Boris' Tories are a worse fit than May's there and Starmer is of course a better fit than Corbyn.

Actually the polls have usually found a below average swing to Labour in London. Presumably a combination of London having more young people, ethnic minorities and remain voters, all groups that have seen relatively small swings to Labour post-2019 (before Partygate, these groups were often outright swinging Conservative!). This is balanced out by the fact Labour held up better in London in 2019 so the London swing shouldn’t be too out of kilter with the national swing.

[afleitch]

To add to Torrains excellent analysis, the last Scottish locals were held on 4th May 2017, smack bang in the middle of an unexpected GE campaign.

The Tories polled 25% of first preference votes at a time when they were polling a whopping 30% in the Scottish polls. Labour polled 20% at a time when they were on about 16% on average. This was before Labours strong climb to the finish line in what was an exceptional time.

We only have Scottish Parliament polls to compare with and the Tories are on 20% and Labour 23%.

The SNP have taken home about a third of the vote in each election since 2007.

What complicates matters this time round is that the Greens are polling around 13%

They may find themselves in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh getting a good vote spread, if they are restricted to one candidate by 3 or 4 member ward,  to get comfortably elected in their target wards. Green second preferences will be important for SNP v Labour contests here.

[Conservatopia]

Well it looks like it falls to me to babble about the West of England as usual.

Swindon has a third of its seats up. The last batch (in '21) saw a very strong Tory performance. Labour have underperformed in this area compared to what the demographics might suggest. Swindon is a hole and Labour do well in holes.
The Tories will almost certainly retain their majority.

In Plymouth Labour will be targeting a majority and looking back on the history of this council I would say they certainly have a chance. However Cornwall has really swung towards the Tories in recent years and there isn't really any evidence that's going to stop.

Exeter will be a snooze. Labour will comfortably keep their majority. It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems can recover somewhat here but seems unlikely whilst Labour are ahead in the polls.

And finally the big one. Somerset has a new unitary authority although essentially the district authorities were merely abolished. The council will use the same boundaries as the old Somerset County Council but with twice the number of councillors.

There has been a lot of anger at the government's decision to abolish the district councils (the One Somerset plan) rather than abolish the county council and restructure the county into two separate authorities (the Stronger Somerset proposal). In the past frustration at local government restructuring has lead to a surge in localist support so whilst most likely a Conservative hold, it will be interesting to see if this leads to seats for minor parties with names like "Taunton and Martock First" and "Market Smellsborough Independents (Fighting for you)".

[Blair]

In terms of London there are three things that I will be looking for.

1.) how do you Labour do in the two principal target councils which are Wandsworth in the Southwest and Barnet in the north- both feature marginal Parliamentary constituencies and were high-profile councils targets that they failed to win in 2018. Barnet is also significant as there is a large Jewish population in some wards.

2.) how strong do Labour remain in the councils that they already hold? Some of these are councils that have huge Soviet majorities of the labour councillors- which in the near past (2000-2010) have either been held by LibDem or conservatives or have been narrow Labour holds. However in both 2014 and 2018 Labour did very well at basically wiping out the opposition- however after eight years of various mishaps it is always possible that there will be some sort of NIMBY backlash against the unpopular things councils do.

3.) how do the Tories do in the wards they hold? Some of these wards are ones which would have voted quite heavily remain but which the Tories still manage to hold on in 2018- largely out of historic habit. there’s certainly always a risk of the bottom falling out completely in council elections for Governments- especially as they cannot get anyone to doorknock in London anymore.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sunderland Labour had a good result in a local by-election recently, the first time that's happened for ages. I would assume a further loss of seats is likely, but not that many this time and they ought to keep their majority. But, yes, the electoral travails of that administration are purely local in character. Some of the scandals have been beyond parody.

Can't seem to find those scandals from a google search ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can't seem to find those scandals from a google search ?

Oh they aren't corruption scandals, as such. In terms of administrative competence, Sunderland isn't even a particularly badly run council, except to the extent that the present government-imposed financial framework means that all councils are now badly run and can't not be. What I mean is that a lot of quite senior councillors in recent years have been criminals.

[YL]

Let's do the rest of Yorkshire.  All these are electing a third of seats, except North Yorkshire which is the whole council.

Barnsley (Lab 49, Lib Dem 7, Con 3, Barnsley Independent Group 1, other Independents 3) It's Barnsley, so unsurprisingly Labour currently has a comfortable majority.  They will probably lose a handful of seats to Lib Dems and maybe to the Barnsley Independent Group (not the force they were) or some other random Independents.  The Tories only missed out on a gain in Rockingham ward on a coin toss last year, so might have an outside chance of breaking out of Penistone East.

Leeds (Lab 52, Con 23, Lib Dem 8, Local Parties For Local People 6+3, Green 3, Independent 2, vacant 2)  Leeds has tended to be fairly dull in recent years, with a lot of safe wards.  As such Labour's majority is more secure than it looks; assuming they regain two seats held by ex-Labour Independents and the vacancy in Roundhay they'd need to lose six seats and that doesn't look very likely.

Bradford (Lab 51, Con 22, Lib Dem 7, Green 3, various Independents 7) Labour would need to lose seven seats to lose their majority here.  There are five wards where they're defending and didn't win last year, and Bradford is very capable of surprising results, but seven losses doesn't look likely.  Several Tory councillors have turned into Independents.

Kirklees (Lab 33, Con 19, Lib Dem 9, Green 3, Heavy Woollen District Independent 1, other Independents 4) Labour is two seats short of a majority here, which is about where they've been for a few years.  They have several potential gains but also a number of awkward defences, so while they might win control they might also slip further from it.

Calderdale (Lab 27, Con 16, Lib Dem 5, Independent 2, vacant 1) Here Labour has a narrow majority.  There are two seats Labour are defending in wards the Tories won last year (Elland and Illingworth & Mixenden) and they don't have obvious targets of their own, so they are a little vulnerable, but would need to lose somewhere else to lose their majority.  The vacancy is a Labour seat in Ovenden, which will elect two councillors this year.

Wakefield (Lab 43, Con 16, Lib Dem 2, Ind 1, vacant 1) Labour had a poor result last year, but are still reasonably secure for control this year.  The vacancy is a Labour seat in South Elmsall & South Kirkby, which again elects two councillors this year.

(Kingston upon) Hull (Lab 30, Lib Dem 25, Con 1, Ind 1) Labour could easily lose control here: they are defending three seats the Lib Dems won last year.  Meanwhile the last Tory is defending in a ward Labour won last time.  If all goes as last year it'd be 28 each for Labour and the Lib Dems with the balance of power held by an ex-LD independent.

North Yorkshire Another massive new unitary, covering the whole of the current county council area, but not the City of York.  There are new ward boundaries with 90 councillors, slightly more than the old county council has.  This is, for the most part, a very Tory area, so something will have gone wrong for them if they don't win control.  Lib Dems often do well in Harrogate, Labour tend to win some seats in Scarborough, and Independents will probably win some seats somewhere, especially in the remoter areas of the Dales.

No elections this year in York or the East Riding or, other than the Metro Mayor, in Doncaster or Rotherham.  Sheffield dealt with separately above.

[Blair]

Labour launched their campaign in Bury.

It’s got two marginal constituencies, I assume a council election, is Northern and a significant Jewish population- so it fits for a number of reasons.

Labour wisely made it about Boris Johnson- ‘send him a message’. Despite people on Twitter complaining the reality is that this is how you message local elections- it is not about the record of local councils especially in a year like this. You leave that to the candidates and local campaigns.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1509655628763078665


https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1509656804678057994

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/cdbeaton/status/1509867494038818848

[YL]

I have the opportunity to vote for the Northern Independence Party.  Aren’t you jealous?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I notice Lutfur Rahman is trying for a comeback in Tower Hamlets.

[beesley]

I never realised how common the name Lutfur Rahman actually is. There is at least one other councillor with that name and certainly a lot of people.

[CumbrianLefty]

I notice Lutfur Rahman is trying for a comeback in Tower Hamlets.

Depressingly, there is a decent chance it will succeed.