Rate Nevada

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote and edit votes in previous threads

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Ratings



Predictions

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R, probably the first Senate seat to flip.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is tough. Possibily Tilt R as we speak.

Laxalt isn't the best possible GOP candidate, but far from an electable maniac. Given that NV was closer than it should have been in 2020, CCM may be in trouble.

[Calthrina950]

Tossup/Tilt R. Cortez-Masto is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate, alongside Kelly and Warnock. She barely won in 2016 (and did so by carrying only Clark County), and Nevada continues to remain an intensely competitive state. Laxalt is not the best candidate, but he should be helped by the national environment and by the potential Republican trend in Clark County.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, probably the first Senate seat to flip.

CCM is leading by nine pts, LOL

[Mr.Phips]

Tilt R at this point. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R at this point. 

Did you know Hillary lost MI, PA and WI and won NV, NM and CO CCM is up nine and Laxalt lost the Gov race already and he was ahead in 2018

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R - it’s not impossible for Cortez Masto to win this race, but it’s also hard to think of a Senate race where Democratic prospects have been more overrated than NV and AZ (although GA can probably be added to that list soon). The idea that Republicans winning NV in a midterm under a Democratic trifecta would be some kind of "upset" has never made any sense (even when the environment was far less favorable to the GOP than it is now), nor has the theory that Republicans are unlikely to cut into the 10-point Democratic advantage in Clark County even in a very R-friendly year ever been convincing. I get the impression that people still don’t realize that NV Democrats can’t afford even the slightest erosion in support given how shaky their current coalition is and how narrow their advantage in the state was even in 2020 — even if Republicans make only small gains with independents and reliably Democratic groups vote like in 2020, a change in turnout patterns alone will be enough to make NV a Toss-up. Even when Reid won in 2010, the state swung seven points to the right between 2008 and 2010 (!) — Republicans need a little less than a 3-point swing this time, unless you believe Cortez Masto actually has crossover appeal among Trump voters (which.... well...).

If the parties were reversed and we were talking about a Trump +2.5 state that had been trending D in the last three presidential elections, just voted to the left of the nation, had a history of electing Democrats in Democratic-leaning years, and had a generic party-line Republican/'Trumpist' up for reelection in a Trump midterm, somehow I don’t think we’d even be having this debate.

[jamestroll]

Nevada is lean R, Arizona Toss Up, Georgia Tilt D in my early assessment at this time.

[Xing]

Toss-Up, Tilt R if I had to say. I love how uniform swing is supposed to mean that Nevada must flip, even in a neutral year, but that it's somehow more likely to flip than Arizona and Georgia as well (?) Or how "candidate quality" means that Pennsylvania could be extremely close in a Republican wave year and that Kelly could survive as well, but it somehow helps Laxalt, who has been one of the biggest promoters of the Big Lie (?)

Considering I have Laxalt winning, albeit by a very narrow margin, I don't think I'm the one being melodramatic here. My hot take is that it's more likely to be the only one of AZ/NV/GA/NH that doesn't flip (not likely at all, but still) than to be the only one that does.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R - it’s not impossible for Cortez Masto to win this race, but it’s also hard to think of a Senate race where Democratic prospects have been more overrated than NV and AZ (although GA can probably be added to that list soon). The idea that Republicans winning NV in a midterm under a Democratic trifecta would be some kind of "upset" has never made any sense (even when the environment was far less favorable to the GOP than it is now), nor has the theory that Republicans are unlikely to cut into the 10-point Democratic advantage in Clark County even in a very R-friendly year ever been convincing. I get the impression that people still don’t realize that NV Democrats can’t afford even the slightest erosion in support given how shaky their current coalition is and how narrow their advantage in the state was even in 2020 — even if Republicans make only small gains with independents and reliably Democratic groups vote like in 2020, a change in turnout patterns alone will be enough to make NV a Toss-up. Even when Reid won in 2010, the state swung seven points to the right between 2008 and 2010 (!) — Republicans need a little less than a 3-point swing this time, unless you believe Cortez Masto actually has crossover appeal among Trump voters (which.... well...).

If the parties were reversed and we were talking about a Trump +2.5 state that had been trending D in the last three presidential elections, just voted to the left of the nation, had a history of electing Democrats in Democratic-leaning years, and had a generic party-line Republican/'Trumpist' up for reelection in a Trump midterm, somehow I don’t think we’d even be having this debate.

.

CCM is up 9 pts and Laxalt lost a race in 2018 that he was leading Rs aren't gonna sweep everything as your map indicates

Laxalt already lost the Gov race to SISOLAK in 2018 and Rs on this forum think he is unbeatable no he isn't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nevada is lean R, Arizona Toss Up, Georgia Tilt D in my early assessment at this time.

You ignore the polls that has CCM up

[Ferguson97]

Tossup/Tilt-R?

[Chips]

Lean R and probably the most likely seat to flip from either party at this point.

[Minnesota Mike]

I hate the Tilt designation (I only use Safe, Lean, Tossup) so I voted Lean Dem .  Cortez Masto leads or is even in the polls, has a commanding lead in fundraising and does not face a bruising primary like the Republicans. She could lose but right now I put her at about a 2-1 favorite.

[S019]

Tilt R, I also imagine the NV Democratic Party’s current internal issues will hurt the party strongly here. The party is starved for cash and that is simply not a good recipe to run in a midterm election against a candidate who actually did quite well in the 2018 blue wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R, I also imagine the NV Democratic Party’s current internal issues will hurt the party strongly here. The party is starved for cash and that is simply not a good recipe to run in a midterm election against a candidate who actually did quite well in the 2018 blue wave.

Rs aren't sweeping every rave in 4% unemployment, it's high inflation but that has zero to do with having an income, which people have

Vegas, and Reno should put D's ahead on EDay, it's 40% Latino like FL and Cali and TX which are battlefield

[Mr. Illini]

Silly to put a D incumbent at Lean R this far out. People make the same mistake with Nevada cycle after cycle.

Fair to say it s a pure Toss Up at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users like So16 keep looking at Biden Approvals , not individual state by state polling just like MT Treasure does and SISOLAK and CCM are leading and Laxalt lost the Gov race in 2o18 and leading in it

[ElectionsGuy]

Silly to put a D incumbent at Lean R this far out. People make the same mistake with Nevada cycle after cycle.

Fair to say it s a pure Toss Up at this point.

I think it's fair to say that the Nevada Senate race in 2018 was Lean D at this point (despite inaccurate polls that overestimated Heller). I predicted Heller losing as early as November 2017.

[Matty]

Why do so many people think pa will go dem?

[YE]

Tilt R but Laxalt won’t do particularly well in Clark and the same forces in play in Clark in 2020 aren’t here.

[Red Wall]

Lean R

[Calthrina950]

Tilt R but Laxalt won’t do particularly well in Clark and the same forces in play in Clark in 2020 aren’t here.

What do you think the margin there will be?

[YE]

Tilt R but Laxalt won’t do particularly well in Clark and the same forces in play in Clark in 2020 aren’t here.

What do you think the margin there will be?

CCM +9 or so. Not enough to automatically lose.