Rate Pennsylvania

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote and edit votes in previous threads

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Ratings



Predictions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Lean R with Fetterman as the Dem nominee, Likely R with anyone else. Voted Lean R, since Fetterman seems likely to be the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Likely D, Oz is overrated

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Pure tossup at the moment. Perhaps a slight lean towards Democrats because the GOP candidates are all clowns.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Depends who both parties (especially the Dems) nominate

[😥]

Depends who both parties (especially the Dems) nominate

This. Pure Tossup as for now

[Sir Mohamed]

Pure tossup. I'm going bold and say Tossup/Tilt D, although I didn't have the seat flipping in my last prediction from a few weeks ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pure tossup. I'm going bold and say Tossup/Tilt D, although I didn't have the seat flipping in my last prediction from a few weeks ago.

It's not the polls whats now it's the end result  it's February not October but the big blue wave is obviously gone, with the job numbers looking bleak we are favs to hold the Senate but not the H with SCOTUS VACANCY

[Ferguson97]

Tilt R without knowing who the nominees will be.

[Xing]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Sure what ever you say

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Wisonsin is Safe R given that we're likely gonna nominate one of our weakest major candidates of the cycle there (Barnes)

[Schiff for Senate]

Tossup or Tilt R.

[Xing]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Wisonsin is Safe R given that we're likely gonna nominate one of our weakest major candidates of the cycle there (Barnes)

I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible that the environment improves somewhat for the Democrats, and I don't think Barnes is that bad of a candidate, even if I might prefer someone else. If he runs a lackluster campaign and the environment stays the same, then it'll be Likely or close to Safe by September or October.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Wisonsin is Safe R given that we're likely gonna nominate one of our weakest major candidates of the cycle there (Barnes)

Says the person who spent much of 2020 arguing that Matt Lieberman was a stronger candidate than Raphael Warnock, and that Democrats were going to have a very very hard time winning the seat in any case.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Wisonsin is Safe R given that we're likely gonna nominate one of our weakest major candidates of the cycle there (Barnes)

Says the person who spent much of 2020 arguing that Matt Lieberman was a stronger candidate than Raphael Warnock, and that Democrats were going to have a very very hard time winning the seat in any case.

1) “Much of 2020” is definitely an exaggeration, there was a period where I believed that though, yes.  And to be clear, I never said Lieberman was a good candidate.  

2) I maintain that Warnock initially ran a really sh!ty campaign then got its act together in a big way later on and this was before Lieberman imploded as well as before the Domestic Violence allegation against Warnock had been discredited.

3) There was nothing unreasonable about believing in mid-to-late 2020 that the Georgia seats were going to be a heavy lift.  That was pretty universally believed at the time to the point that Berniecrats tended to cite Warnock and Osoff right alongside McGrath as the major DSCC recruiting fails of the cycle.  No one expected these to flip until late in the game and even then, it wasn’t really clear that Dems had a real shot until after the Presidential election.

4) Most importantly, I’ll be the first to say I was wrong.  And I’m glad too b/c Warnock is a really good Senator.  Make electoral predictions long enough and sooner or later, you’ll make one that turns out to be hilariously wrong in hindsight.  That’s why it is good to be humble.  But don’t take my word for it, multiple posters who actually…you know…live in Wisconsin have explained why Barnes is a sh!tty candidate.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's all remember it's February not October as we make our prediction it's a long way til October and no race is OVER YET

[Fetterman my beloved]

I'd say pure tossup for now. Depending on who wins what primary, it could go either way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Wisonsin is Safe R given that we're likely gonna nominate one of our weakest major candidates of the cycle there (Barnes)

Says the person who spent much of 2020 arguing that Matt Lieberman was a stronger candidate than Raphael Warnock, and that Democrats were going to have a very very hard time winning the seat in any case.

No, you know that's not true the only person to have won was Arlen Specter and Toomey and Specter was a Moderate and Bloomberg spent 2M of his own money on behalf of Toomey in 2016 due to Toomey being pro gun control, Fetterman will beat Oz or whomever comes out of R prmary

Last poll had Barnes tied 47/47 Barnes v Johnson and Fetterman 44/42

Portman won by 2M votes both Johnson and Toomey won by what 200 K votes, because Portman and Rubio are as safe as Grassley

Both WI and PA are Lean. d TO and Cook has both as Tossup and Sabato has PA as Tossups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R. Candidate quality isn't going to make this race flip if Republicans are winning races like GA and NV. A change in the environment is what would be needed for Democrats to win this race. I'd say it votes closer to WI-SEN than GA-SEN or NV-SEN.

Wisonsin is Safe R given that we're likely gonna nominate one of our weakest major candidates of the cycle there (Barnes)

Barnes is tied at 47/47 with Johnson in the latest poll, Johnson won by 200 K votes Rubio and Portman and Grassley won by 2M big difference

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Depends who both parties (especially the Dems) nominate

This but dramatically different from your ideal Dems

[MATTROSE94]

Tossup. I think Dr. Oz will struggle out in the Pittsburgh suburbs and with some of the rural, anti-Muslim, and anti-vaxx voters in central Pennsylvania, but he might do well in the Philadelphia suburbs. Dr. Oz is a bit weird politically as well, so he might not be able to connect super well with a lot of voters.

[S019]

Tilt R, I don't think Democrats will get blown out here, but it'll surely not be particularly easy to win given the national environment, closer to Lean R than Tossup.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Toss-up but Tilt R given the possible environment, for sure the "easiest" pick-up for democrats, but still republicans are favored.