Rate Arizona

[ElectionsGuy]

Ratings



Predictions



My rating: Lean R

If you're bold enough, post percentages or margins. While I'm not sure who the Republican candidate will be, I'm going to say R+6.

Ratings can be interpreted flexibly, but I think most people would agree with the following generally:

Likely: Mostly uncompetitive, only possible to go to the other party with extreme circumstances
Lean: Somewhat competitive, but one party has a noticeable/sizable advantage
Toss-Up/Tilt: Very competitive, one party only has a slight advantage.

Ratings aren't necessarily indicative of margin, but rather ultimate chance/probability. It's technically possible to indicate a 2 point win as "safe" if you really do believe that there's no chance the other party wins.

[Miked0920]

Id say Tilt Republican, Lean R if Brnovich is the nominee or perhaps tilt Democrat if its Masters or someone else.

[Rjjr77]

My rating: Lean R

If you're bold enough, post percentages or margins. While I'm not sure who the Republican candidate will be, I'm going to say R+6.

I'm going to play around with this code until I can get it to reflect 2022.

I'll go Tilt R, GOP is going to have a couple of dead cat bounces in AZ before the state leaves them for good

[TDAS04]

Tilt D.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean R, it doesn't look good at all for Mark Kelly. Both Republican candidates aren't amazing, but they are much stronger than Martha McSally was. Additionally, Kelly looks much more like a Dem hack compared to moderate Sinema. The toughest obstacle of course is Biden's approval rating is horrible in the state plus a red wave year. Not saying he can't win, but he is in a pretty tough situation right now.

Democrats would like to think that there is a chance that Trump comes in and screws it up, which isn't impossible but very very unlikely. This isn't Georgia, and Trump doesn't have the same anger towards Ducey(who is hopefully retiring)/Brnovich that he does Kemp/Raffensperger. I also really doubt that many genuinely undecided voters are going to remember the Cyber Ninja stuff from over a year ago from election day and base their ballot decision off that. 

[MT Treasurer]

Really don’t see how this isn’t Lean R in an environment this heavily Republican. While Kelly isn’t "DOA," this forum has always been exaggerating how "moderate" or "strong" a Republican it would take to beat him, and there’s no way he was ever less vulnerable than someone like Maggie Hassan.

Any other Republican President almost certainly would have (narrowly) won AZ even in defeat, whereas the same cannot necessarily be said of GA. It’s also a state where Democrats are very reliant on youth turnout, can’t afford any losses among Hispanic voters and seniors, and face a very reliable, high-propensity GOP base that tends to turn out even in unfavorable midterm years to a greater extent than Republicans in most other states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, it doesn't look good at all for Mark Kelly. Both Republican candidates aren't amazing, but they are much stronger than Martha McSally was. Additionally, Kelly looks much more like a Dem hack compared to moderate Sinema. The toughest obstacle of course is Biden's approval rating is horrible in the state plus a red wave year. Not saying he can't win, but he is in a pretty tough situation right now.

Democrats would like to think that there is a chance that Trump comes in and screws it up, which isn't impossible but very very unlikely. This isn't Georgia, and Trump doesn't have the same anger towards Ducey(who is hopefully retiring)/Brnovich that he does Kemp/Raffensperger. I also really doubt that many genuinely undecided voters are going to remember the Cyber Ninja stuff from over a year ago from election day and base their ballot decision off that.  

You do realize Kelly has been ahead in every poll and he is leading Ducey whom is a Maverick at times 50)47

Likely D users think that races are gonna flow exactly like the 304)234 map news flash we haven't had two duplicate maps two cycles in a row and it's Feb not Oct Cook and Sabato rates it as Tossup and Gonalez too not Likely R

The Gov race right now is Likely R no polls but we can win that too

[Utah Neolib]

Tilt R. Republican national environment, very possible lower democratic turnout, and continual trends among Hispanics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R. Republican national environment, very possible lower democratic turnout, and continual trends among Hispanics.

Last two Midterms 2014 it 33)33 M and 46)43 M in 2018 it's on Election results just because lower turnout doesn't mean squat D's still are the Majority

Both were same day voting not VBM

[MargieCat]

Tilt-D.

Kelly hangs on.

[Xing]

Tilt to Lean R. Kelly needs either a turnaround in the national environment or an opponent that really does crash and burn (being “controversial” wouldn’t be enough.) The most vulnerable incumbent, overall, though I don’t think he loses by that much, I’ll say R+3-4.

[Miked0920]

Who do you think the GOP Nominee will be against Kelly???

[progressive85]

My rating: Lean R

If you're bold enough, post percentages or margins. While I'm not sure who the Republican candidate will be, I'm going to say R+6.

I'm going to play around with this code until I can get it to reflect 2022.

I'll go Tilt R, GOP is going to have a couple of dead cat bounces in AZ before the state leaves them for good

I never heard that expression before, i like it.  That would also describe then what had happened in several Southern states in the 80s and 90s, right when Democrats were still able to win despite the state being gone at the presidential level?

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt R, but it is possible to Kelly to win

[SnowLabrador]

Who do you think the GOP Nominee will be against Kelly???

Brnovich.

[Unelectable Bystander]

My rating: Lean R

If you're bold enough, post percentages or margins. While I'm not sure who the Republican candidate will be, I'm going to say R+6.

I'm going to play around with this code until I can get it to reflect 2022.

I'll go Tilt R, GOP is going to have a couple of dead cat bounces in AZ before the state leaves them for good

I never heard that expression before, i like it.  That would also describe then what had happened in several Southern states in the 80s and 90s, right when Democrats were still able to win despite the state being gone at the presidential level?

I actually think dead cat bounces usually refer to states that are so uncompetitive and possibly maxed out that it trends towards the losing party one year just by random chance and it doesn’t really matter (like WV 2020). With that being said, I agree with that poster that the sun is setting on R’s in Arizona and I also agree that the GOP can certainly win Arizona before that happens (like southern states in the 90’s) because sometimes changes in national environment can outweigh trends

[SnowLabrador]

I think it's Lean R.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who do you think the GOP Nominee will be against Kelly???

It will be Brnovich unless Masters gets the Trump endorsement. I don't see him mustering more than 15% of the vote without it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tossup/Tilt R.

I would have voted Pure tossup. Since that isn't an option, I chose to go with Tilt R due to the environment this election is shaping up to take place in. More likely to flip than GA in my opinion.

[Chips]

This is a toss-up still with both candidates having the potential to win, but today Brnovich has the slight edge. A pickup for the GOP, if a narrow one.

[Rjjr77]

My rating: Lean R

If you're bold enough, post percentages or margins. While I'm not sure who the Republican candidate will be, I'm going to say R+6.

I'm going to play around with this code until I can get it to reflect 2022.

I'll go Tilt R, GOP is going to have a couple of dead cat bounces in AZ before the state leaves them for good

I never heard that expression before, i like it.  That would also describe then what had happened in several Southern states in the 80s and 90s, right when Democrats were still able to win despite the state being gone at the presidential level?

Its a stock market term that refers to a temporary upswing after a long decline. The theory is if you drop it from high enough even a dead cat will bounce

[Calthrina950]

Tossup/Tilt R. Brnovich, the likely Republican nominee, appears to be a stronger candidate than McSally. Biden's approvals in the state are poor, it is a Republican wave year, and Arizona is still a Republican-leaning state, as last year's results showed. Kelly has a chance, but it will be a hard fight for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Tossup tilt R the last poll had Kelly at 50/48 against Ducey and Brnovich, Brnovich hasn't done anything outside of the state of AZ and another poll has Kelly up 42/38

Kelly is more popular than Bill Nelson because AZ is a Lean D state and FL is an R state due to Cuban Embargo

[MillennialModerate]

Lean R (can go likely or tilt depending upon GOP nominee)

While I have it Lean R I think it is a reasonable take to think Kelly could win. Unlike Georgia where the cake is baked

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R (can go likely or tilt depending upon GOP nominee)

While I have it Lean R I think it is a reasonable take to think Kelly could win. Unlike Georgia where the cake is baked

LoL it's February not October and Kelly has been leading in every poll there can be split voting and Kelly and Warnock don't have subpar Approvaks and you said last time Warnock was going to lose you were wrong

Kelly 50/48, 42/38